Visualization of complex biological systems: An immune response model using OpenGL

In this paper we present an update on our novel visualization technologies based on cellular immune interaction from both large-scale spatial and temporal perspectives. We do so with a primary motive: to present a visually and behaviourally realistic environment to the community of experimental biologists and physicians such that their knowledge and expertise may be more readily integrated into the model creation and calibration process. Visualization aids understanding as we rely on visual perception to make crucial decisions. For example, with our initial model, we can visualize the dynamics of an idealized lymphatic compartment, with antigen presenting cells (APC) and cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) cells. The visualization technology presented here offers the researcher the ability to start, pause, zoom-in, zoom-out and navigate in 3-dimensions through an idealised lymphatic compartment.

A framework for understanding and generating integrated solutions for residential peak energy demand

Supplying peak energy demand in a cost effective, reliable manner is a critical focus for utilities internationally. Successfully addressing peak energy concerns requires understanding of all the factors that affect electricity demand especially at peak times. This paper is based on past attempts of proposing models designed to aid our understanding of the influences on residential peak energy demand in a systematic and comprehensive way. Our model has been developed through a group model building process as a systems framework of the problem situation to model the complexity within and between systems and indicate how changes in one element might flow on to others. It is comprised of themes (social, technical and change management options) networked together in a way that captures their influence and association with each other and also their influence, association and impact on appliance usage and residential peak energy demand. The real value of the model is in creating awareness, understanding and insight into the complexity of residential peak energy demand and in working with this complexity to identify and integrate the social, technical and change management option themes and their impact on appliance usage and residential energy demand at peak times.

A smooth transition logit model of the effects of deregulation in the electricity market

This paper introduces the smooth transition logit (STL) model that is designed to detect and model situations in which there is structural change in the behaviour underlying the latent index from which the binary dependent variable is constructed. The maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the model are derived along with their asymptotic properties, together with a Lagrange multiplier test of the null hypothesis of linearity in the underlying latent index. The development of the STL model is motivated by the desire to assess the impact of deregulation in the Queensland electricity market and ascertain whether increased competition has resulted in significant changes in the behaviour of the spot price of electricity, specifically with respect to the occurrence of periodic abnormally high prices. The model allows the timing of any change to be endogenously determined and also market participants' behaviour to change gradually over time. The main results provide clear evidence in support of a structural change in the nature of price events, and the endogenously determined timing of the change is consistent with the process of deregulation in Queensland.

Empirical reference points for Bernstein’s model of pedagogic rights: Recontextualising the reconciliation agenda to Australian schooling

In this chapter we use Bernstein’s (2000) model of pedagogic rights to examine the learning experiences for non-Indigenous teachers in two reconciliation projects. In the context within which we write, reconciliation is the process of establishing a culture of mutual respect between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples and non-Indigenous Australians. In 1991, the Royal Commission into Aboriginal Deaths in Custody linked the continuation of racism in Australian society to the weak coverage of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander content in the school curriculum (Reconciliation Australia 2010). Nearly two decades later, the Melbourne Declaration on Educational Goals for Young Australians issued by the council of Federal, State and Territory Ministers of Education proclaimed that curriculum should enable all students to ‘understand and acknowledge the value of Indigenous cultures and possess the knowledge, skills and understanding to contribute to, and benefit from reconciliation between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians’ (MCEETYA 2008, 9). Education holds out promise not only of better life chances for Indigenous young people, but also of replacing myths with understanding and tackling prejudice and racism within the non-Indigenous population. Bernstein’s (2000) model of pedagogic rights promises some purchase on this pedagogic work by providing concepts for looking systematically at the participation of non-Indigenous teachers in education. As observed by Frandji and Vitale (Chapter 2, this volume), the model is not sufficient to achieve a democratic reality, ‘but simply provides a basis for problematizing reality and considering possibilities’.

A Bayesian model of source monitoring

The Source Monitoring Framework is a promising model of constructive memory, yet fails because it is connectionist and does not allow content tagging. The Dual-Process Signal Detection Model is an improvement because it reduces mnemic qualia to a single memory signal (or degree of belief), but still commits itself to non-discrete representation. By supposing that ‘tagging’ means the assignment of propositional attitudes to aggregates of anemic characteristics informed inductively, then a discrete model becomes plausible. A Bayesian model of source monitoring accounts for the continuous variation of inputs and assignment of prior probabilities to memory content. A modified version of the High-Threshold Dual-Process model is recommended to further source monitoring research.

Systems modelling of the socio-technical aspects of residential electricity use and network peak demand

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers’ peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers’ location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price,managed supply, etc., in a conceptual ‘map’ of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tick box interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments.

Genome-wide association study for radiographic vertebral fractures: A potential role for the 16q24 BMD locus

Vertebral fracture risk is a heritable complex trait. The aim of this study was to identify genetic susceptibility factors for osteoporotic vertebral fractures applying a genome-wide association study (GWAS) approach. The GWAS discovery was based on the Rotterdam Study, a population-based study of elderly Dutch individuals aged >55years; and comprising 329 cases and 2666 controls with radiographic scoring (McCloskey-Kanis) and genetic data. Replication of one top-associated SNP was pursued by de-novo genotyping of 15 independent studies across Europe, the United States, and Australia and one Asian study. Radiographic vertebral fracture assessment was performed using McCloskey-Kanis or Genant semi-quantitative definitions. SNPs were analyzed in relation to vertebral fracture using logistic regression models corrected for age and sex. Fixed effects inverse variance and Han-Eskin alternative random effects meta-analyses were applied. Genome-wide significance was set at p<5×10-8. In the discovery, a SNP (rs11645938) on chromosome 16q24 was associated with the risk for vertebral fractures at p=4.6×10-8. However, the association was not significant across 5720 cases and 21,791 controls from 14 studies. Fixed-effects meta-analysis summary estimate was 1.06 (95% CI: 0.98-1.14; p=0.17), displaying high degree of heterogeneity (I2=57%; Qhet p=0.0006). Under Han-Eskin alternative random effects model the summary effect was significant (p=0.0005). The SNP maps to a region previously found associated with lumbar spine bone mineral density (LS-BMD) in two large meta-analyses from the GEFOS consortium. A false positive association in the GWAS discovery cannot be excluded, yet, the low-powered setting of the discovery and replication settings (appropriate to identify risk effect size >1.25) may still be consistent with an effect size <1.10, more of the type expected in complex traits. Larger effort in studies with standardized phenotype definitions is needed to confirm or reject the involvement of this locus on the risk for vertebral fractures.

Feasibility of perflutren microsphere contrast transthoracic echocardiography in the visualization of ventricular endocardium during venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in a validated ovine model

Background: Transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) during extra corporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is important but can be technically challenging. Contrast-specific TTE can improve imaging in suboptimal studies. These contrast microspheres are hydrodynamically labile structures. This study assessed the feasibility of contrast echocardiography (CE) during venovenous (VV) ECMO in a validated ovine model. Method: Twenty-four sheep were commenced on VV ECMO. Parasternal long-axis (Plax) and short-axis (Psax) views were obtained pre- and postcontrast while on VV ECMO. Endocardial definition scores (EDS) per segment were graded: 1 = good, 2 = suboptimal 3 = not seen. Endocardial border definition score index (EBDSI) was calculated for each view. Endocardial length (EL) in the Plax view for the left ventricle (LV) and right ventricle (RV) was measured. Results: Summation EDS data for the LV and RV for unenhanced TTE (UE) versus CE TTE imaging: EDS 1 = 289 versus 346, EDS 2 = 38 versus 10, EDS 3 = 33 versus 4, respectively. Wilcoxon matched-pairs rank-sign tests showed a significant ranking difference (improvement) pre- and postcontrast for the LV (P < 0.0001), RV (P < 0.0001) and combined ventricular data (P < 0.0001). EBDSI for CE TTE was significantly lower than UE TTE for the LV (1.05 ± 0.17 vs. 1.22 ± 0.38, P = 0.0004) and RV (1.06 ± 0.22 vs. 1.42 ± 0.47, P = 0.0.0006) respectively. Visualized EL was significantly longer in CE versus UE for both the LV (58.6 ± 11.0 mm vs. 47.4 ± 11.7 mm, P < 0.0001) and the RV (52.3 ± 8.6 mm vs. 36.0 ± 13.1 mm, P < 0.0001), respectively. Conclusions: Despite exposure to destructive hydrodynamic forces, CE is a feasible technique in an ovine ECMO model. CE results in significantly improved EDS and increased EL.

A comprehensive ovine model of blood transfusion

Background The growing awareness of transfusion-associated morbidity and mortality necessitates investigations into the underlying mechanisms. Small animals have been the dominant transfusion model but have associated limitations. This study aimed to develop a comprehensive large animal (ovine) model of transfusion encompassing: blood collection, processing and storage, compatibility testing right through to post-transfusion outcomes. Materials and methods Two units of blood were collected from each of 12 adult male Merino sheep and processed into 24 ovine-packed red blood cell (PRBC) units. Baseline haematological parameters of ovine blood and PRBC cells were analysed. Biochemical changes in ovine PRBCs were characterized during the 42-day storage period. Immunological compatibility of the blood was confirmed with sera from potential recipient sheep, using a saline and albumin agglutination cross-match. Following confirmation of compatibility, each recipient sheep (n = 12) was transfused with two units of ovine PRBC. Results Procedures for collecting, processing, cross-matching and transfusing ovine blood were established. Although ovine red blood cells are smaller and higher in number, their mean cell haemoglobin concentration is similar to human red blood cells. Ovine PRBC showed improved storage properties in saline–adenine–glucose–mannitol (SAG-M) compared with previous human PRBC studies. Seventy-six compatibility tests were performed and 17·1% were incompatible. Only cross-match compatible ovine PRBC were transfused and no adverse reactions were observed. Conclusion These findings demonstrate the utility of the ovine model for future blood transfusion studies and highlight the importance of compatibility testing in animal models involving homologous transfusions.

5-year Chlamydia vaccination programme could reverse disease-related koala population decline: Predictions from a mathematical model using field data

BACKGROUND Many koala populations around Australia are in serious decline, with a substantial component of this decline in some Southeast Queensland populations attributed to the impact of Chlamydia. A Chlamydia vaccine for koalas is in development and has shown promise in early trials. This study contributes to implementation preparedness by simulating vaccination strategies designed to reverse population decline and by identifying which age and sex category it would be most effective to target. METHODS We used field data to inform the development and parameterisation of an individual-based stochastic simulation model of a koala population endemic with Chlamydia. The model took into account transmission, morbidity and mortality caused by Chlamydia infections. We calibrated the model to characteristics of typical Southeast Queensland koala populations. As there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of the vaccine in real-world settings, a variety of potential vaccine efficacies, half-lives and dosing schedules were simulated. RESULTS Assuming other threats remain constant, it is expected that current population declines could be reversed in around 5-6 years if female koalas aged 1-2 years are targeted, average vaccine protective efficacy is 75%, and vaccine coverage is around 10% per year. At lower vaccine efficacies the immunological effects of boosting become important: at 45% vaccine efficacy population decline is predicted to reverse in 6 years under optimistic boosting assumptions but in 9 years under pessimistic boosting assumptions. Terminating a successful vaccination programme at 5 years would lead to a rise in Chlamydia prevalence towards pre-vaccination levels. CONCLUSION For a range of vaccine efficacy levels it is projected that population decline due to endemic Chlamydia can be reversed under realistic dosing schedules, potentially in just 5 years. However, a vaccination programme might need to continue indefinitely in order to maintain Chlamydia prevalence at a sufficiently low level for population growth to continue.

Exposure risk assessment and evaluation of the best management practice for controlling pesticide runoff from paddy fields. Part 2: Model simulation for the herbicide pretilachlor

BACKGROUND: Monitoring studies revealed high concentrations of pesticides in the drainage canal of paddy fields. It is important to have a way to predict these concentrations in different management scenarios as an assessment tool. A simulation model for predicting the pesticide concentration in a paddy block (PCPF-B) was evaluated and then used to assess the effect of water management practices for controlling pesticide runoff from paddy fields. RESULTS: The PCPF-B model achieved an acceptable performance. The model was applied to a constrained probabilistic approach using the Monte Carlo technique to evaluate the best management practices for reducing runoff of pretilachlor into the canal. The probabilistic model predictions using actual data of pesticide use and hydrological data in the canal showed that the water holding period (WHP) and the excess water storage depth (EWSD) effectively reduced the loss and concentration of pretilachlor from paddy fields to the drainage canal. The WHP also reduced the timespan of pesticide exposure in the drainage canal. CONCLUSIONS: It is recommended that: (1) the WHP be applied for as long as possible, but for at least 7 days, depending on the pesticide and field conditions; (2) an EWSD greater than 2 cm be maintained to store substantial rainfall in order to prevent paddy runoff, especially during the WHP.

Improving factory performance using an integrated sugar factory model

A whole of factory model of a raw sugar factory was developed in SysCAD software to assess and improve factory operations. The integrated sugar factory model ‘Sugar-SysCAD’ includes individual models for milling, heating and clarification, evaporation, crystallisation, steam cycle, sugar dryer and process and injection water circuits. These individual unit operation models can be either used as standalone models to optimise the unit operation or in the integrated mode to provide more accurate prediction of the effects of changes in any part of the process on the outputs of the whole factory process. Using the integrated sugar factory model, the effect of specific process operations can be understood and practical solutions can be determined to address process problems. The paper presents two factory scenarios to show the capabilities of the whole of factory model.

“It puts a human face on the researched”: A qualitative evaluation of an Indigenous research governance model

Objective This study aimed to describe the Inala Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Community Jury for Health Research, and evaluate its usefulness as a model of Indigenous research governance within an urban Indigenous primary health care service from the perspectives of Jury members and researchers. Methods Informed by a phenomenological approach and using narrative inquiry, a focus group was conducted with Jury members and key informant interviews were undertaken with researchers who had presented to the Community Jury in its first year of operation. Results The Jury was a site of identity work for researchers and Jury members, providing an opportunity to observe and affirm community cultural protocols. Although researchers and Jury members had differing levels of research literacy, the Jury processes enabled respectful communication and relationships to form which positively influenced research practice, community aspirations and clinical care. Discussion The Jury processes facilitated transformative research practice among researchers, and resulted in transference of power from researchers to the Jury members to the mutual benefit of both. Conclusion Ethical Indigenous health research practice requires an engagement with Indigenous peoples and knowledges at the research governance level, not simply as subjects or objects of research.

Working covariance model selection for generalized estimating equations

We investigate methods for data-based selection of working covariance models in the analysis of correlated data with generalized estimating equations. We study two selection criteria: Gaussian pseudolikelihood and a geodesic distance based on discrepancy between model-sensitive and model-robust regression parameter covariance estimators. The Gaussian pseudolikelihood is found in simulation to be reasonably sensitive for several response distributions and noncanonical mean-variance relations for longitudinal data. Application is also made to a clinical dataset. Assessment of adequacy of both correlation and variance models for longitudinal data should be routine in applications, and we describe open-source software supporting this practice.