Outbreak detection algorithms for seasonal disease data : a case study using Ross River virus disease

Background Detection of outbreaks is an important part of disease surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed for detecting outbreaks, few have been specifically assessed against diseases that have distinct seasonal incidence patterns, such as those caused by vector-borne pathogens. Methods We applied five previously reported outbreak detection algorithms to Ross River virus (RRV) disease data (1991-2007) for the four local government areas (LGAs) of Brisbane, Emerald, Redland and Townsville in Queensland, Australia. The methods used were the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) C1, C2 and C3 methods, negative binomial cusum (NBC), historical limits method (HLM), Poisson outbreak detection (POD) method and the purely temporal SaTScan analysis. Seasonally-adjusted variants of the NBC and SaTScan methods were developed. Some of the algorithms were applied using a range of parameter values, resulting in 17 variants of the five algorithms. Results The 9,188 RRV disease notifications that occurred in the four selected regions over the study period showed marked seasonality, which adversely affected the performance of some of the outbreak detection algorithms. Most of the methods examined were able to detect the same major events. The exception was the seasonally-adjusted NBC methods that detected an excess of short signals. The NBC, POD and temporal SaTScan algorithms were the only methods that consistently had high true positive rates and low false positive and false negative rates across the four study areas. The timeliness of outbreak signals generated by each method was also compared but there was no consistency across outbreaks and LGAs. Conclusions This study has highlighted several issues associated with applying outbreak detection algorithms to seasonal disease data. In lieu of a true gold standard, a quantitative comparison is difficult and caution should be taken when interpreting the true positives, false positives, sensitivity and specificity.

Urban growth in the Kathmandu Valley: The transformation of public space

Traditional towns of the Kathmandu Valley boast a fine provision of public spaces in their neighbourhoods. Historically, a hierarchy of public space has been distributed over the entire town with each neighbourhood centered around more or less spacious public squares. However, rapid growth of these towns over the past decades has resulted in haphazard development of new urban areas with little provision of public space. Recent studies indicate that the loss of public space is a major consequence of the uncontrolled urban growth of the Kathmandu Valley and its new neighbourhoods. This paper reviews the current urban growth of the Kathmandu Valley and its impact on the development of public space in new neighbourhoods. The preliminary analysis of the case study of three new neighbourhoods shows that the formation and utilization of neighbourhood public space exhibit fundamental differences from those found in the traditional city cores. The following key issues are identified in this paper: a) Governance and regulations have been a challenge to regulate rapid urban growth; b) The current pattern of neighbourhood formation is found to be different from that of traditional neighbourhoods due to the changes with rapid urban development; c) Public spaces have been compromised in both planned and unplanned new neighbourhoods in terms of their quantity and quality; d) The changing provision of public space has contributed to its changing use and meaning; and e) The changing demographic composition, changing society and life style have had direct impact on the declining use of public space. Moreover, the management of public spaces remains a big challenge due to their changing nature and the changing governance. The current transformation public space does not appear to be conducive, and has led to adversely changing social environment of the new neighbourhoods.

The times, wines and tides of Tasmania’s Tamar Valley

A travel article about the Tamar Valley, Tasmania. FROM Launceston to Low Head and the Tamar River’s entry into Bass Strait, big tides bring with them an atmosphere of a beach community, but also of a community a little stranded in time. Half the day the locals live by the sea, and for the other half along wide flats. It’s an old rhythm in a place where much has gone unchanged...

Lessons from a Church Mural

A travel article about the Moselle Valley, Germany. There’s a school of thought that says you shouldn’t look back in life. This is not the received wisdom in Cochem, a village on the Moselle river known, like many others in the area, for its white wine and fairytale castle. Here, they say, it’s bad luck if you don’t turn around for one last look at a mural of St Christopher that graces the castle’s main tower...

Perfect start to a river cruise

A travel article about Amsterdam. BY COINCIDENCE, I flew to Amsterdam a week after I'd read Ian McEwan's novel of the same name. Amsterdam is a modern take on the theme of duelling and, in many ways, he couldn't have chosen a more appropriate place for his title. This is a city that duels with itself. I flew in at dawn, traditionally the moment to test your abilities at 10 paces. The countryside below was dark but blocks of orange light pulsed in the fields...

Application of XRF and correspondence analysis to provenance studies of coastal and inland archaeological pottery from the Mngeni river area, South Africa

XRF spectrometry was applied to provenance studies of Iron Age pottery specimens that originated from the Mngeni river area in South Africa. Ten transition metals (Sc to Zn) mere determined in 107 potsherds, excavated from four different sites. The data were subjected to a computerized mathematical technique (correspondence analysis), which was used to group the samples according to the similarity of their elemental distributions. The groupings were interpreted in terms of social or cultural interaction between the sites. (C) 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The use of correspondence analysis to compare major and trace elements for provenance studies of iron-age pottery from the Mngeni river area, South Africa

Provenance studies of iron-age pottery specimens originating from the Mngeni river area in South Africa was carried out by applying XRF spectrometry. A total of sixteen major and trace elements were analysed in a batch of 107 potsherds, excavated from four different archaeological sites in the aforementioned area. A multivariate statistical programme Correspondence Analysis was used in this study to obtain the relevant clustering patterns according to the similarity of the elemental distributions. Differences and similarities in the clusters obtained for the majors and trace elements are discussed.

Child's body in tree adds to Lockyer Valley death toll

"Two more bodies, including a that of child discovered in a tree, were retrieved in the Lockyer Valley at the weekend, reinforcing the grisly complexity of the search for the missing."

Ross River virus disease activity associated with naturally occurring non-tidal flood events in Australia : A systematic review

Ross River virus (RRV) disease is the most common and widespread mosquito-borne disease in Australia, resulting in considerable health and economic cost to communities. While naturally occurring non-tidal flood events may enhance mosquito abundance, little is known about the impact of such events on RRV transmission. This paper critically reviews the existing evidence for an association between naturally occurring non-tidal flood events and RRV transmission. A systematic literature search was conducted on RRV transmission related to flooding and inundation from rain and riverine overflow. Overall, the evidence to support a positive association between flooding and RRV outbreaks is largely circumstantial, with the literature mostly reporting only coincidental occurrence between the two. However, for the Murray River, river flow and height (surrogates of flooding) were positively and significantly associated with RRV transmission. The association between non-tidal flooding and RRV transmission has not been studied comprehensively. More frequent flood events arising from climate change may result in increased outbreaks of RRV disease. Understanding the link between flood events and RRV transmission is necessary if resources for mosquito spraying and public health warnings are to be utilized more effectively and efficiently.

The grapes of wrath: The Coonawarra dispute, geographical indications and international trade

The famous wine region of Coonawarra in South Australia has been promoted as ’Australia's other Red Centre', emphasizing its terra rossa soil and its cabernet sauvignon. In his atlas of the wine regions of Australia, John Beeston comments upon the rich and contested history of the region: ’Coonawarra is certainly the most famous cabernet sauvignon region in Australia, and some would argue, the most renowned wine region in Australia per se'. A reporter, Penelope Debelle, captures a sense of the legal conflict over the parameters of the boundaries of Coonawarra: ’Behind the name Coonawarra, an inglorious contest is being waged that pits the romance of South Australia's terra rossa cool-climate wine region against the cold commercial reality of the label.'This Chapter tells the story behind the Coonawarra litigation, addressing the parties to the dispute; the legal and historical context of the case; and the immediate impact case, as well as its lingering significance. It considers the ’Coonawarra' case as, very literally, a landmark in Australian jurisprudence in respect of intellectual property. This chapter engages in the methodology of ’legal storytelling'. In the field of new historicism, the use of anecdotes - petite histoire - has been seen as a useful way of challenging grand historical narratives. Joel Fineman has observed that the anecdote is ’the literary form or genre that uniquely refers to the real.' This chapter has three parts. Part 1 outlines the European Community - Australia Wine Agreement 1994, and the operation of the Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation Act 1980 (Cth). Part 2 considers the various stages of the dispute over the Coonawarra region - moving from the decision of the Geographical Indications Committee, to the ruling of the Administrative Appeals Tribunal; and the conclusive decision of the Full Court of the Federal Court of Australia. Part 3 examines the implications of the Coonawarra litigation for other wine regions of Australia - most notably, the King Valley in Victoria; but also the Hunter Valley in the New South Wales; and the Margaret River in Western Australia. The conclusion considers the ramifications of the European Community-Australia Wine Agreement 2007, which has been initialed by both sides.