Likelihood‐free inference for transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens

This chapter contains sections titled: Introduction Case study: Estimating transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens Models and methods Data analysis and results Discussion References

Free-surface flow past arbitrary topography and an inverse approach for wave-free solutions

An efficient numerical method to compute nonlinear solutions for two-dimensional steady free-surface flow over an arbitrary channel bottom topography is presented. The approach is based on a boundary integral equation technique which is similar to that of Vanden-Broeck's (1996, J. Fluid Mech., 330, 339-347). The typical approach for this problem is to prescribe the shape of the channel bottom topography, with the free-surface being provided as part of the solution. Here we take an inverse approach and prescribe the shape of the free-surface a priori while solving for the corresponding bottom topography. We show how this inverse approach is particularly useful when studying topographies that give rise to wave-free solutions, allowing us to easily classify eleven basic flow types. Finally, the inverse approach is also adapted to calculate a distribution of pressure on the free-surface, given the free-surface shape itself.

Nanoporous Graphitic-C3N4@Carbon Metal-Free Electrocatalysts for Highly Efficient Oxygen Reduction

Based on theoretical prediction, a g-C3N4@carbon metal-free oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) electrocatalyst was designed and synthesized by uniform incorporation of g-C3N4 into a mesoporous carbon to enhance the electron transfer efficiency of g-C3N4. The resulting g-C3N4@carbon composite exhibited competitive catalytic activity (11.3 mA cm–2 kinetic-limiting current density at −0.6 V) and superior methanol tolerance compared to a commercial Pt/C catalyst. Furthermore, it demonstrated significantly higher catalytic efficiency (nearly 100% of four-electron ORR process selectivity) than a Pt/C catalyst. The proposed synthesis route is facile and low-cost, providing a feasible method for the development of highly efficient electrocatalysts.

ActiGraph GT3X determined variations in “free-living” standing, lying, and sitting duration among sedentary adults

Background Overweight and obesity has become a serious public health problem in many parts of the world. Studies suggest that making small changes in daily activity levels such as “breaking-up” sedentary time (i.e., standing) may help mitigate the health risks of sedentary behavior. The aim of the present study was to examine time spent in standing (determined by count threshold), lying, and sitting postures (determined by inclinometer function) via the ActiGraph GT3X among sedentary adults with differing weight status based on body mass index (BMI) categories. Methods Participants included 22 sedentary adults (14 men, 8 women; mean age 26.5 ± 4.1 years). All subjects completed the self-report International Physical Activity Questionnaire to determine time spent sitting over the previous 7 days. Participants were included if they spent seven or more hours sitting per day. Postures were determined with the ActiGraph GT3X inclinometer function. Participants were instructed to wear the accelerometer for 7 consecutive days (24 h a day). BMI was categorized as: 18.5 to <25 kg/m2 as normal, 25 to <30 kg/m2 as overweight, and ≥30 kg/m2 as obese. Results Participants in the normal weight (n = 10) and overweight (n = 6) groups spent significantly more time standing (after adjustment for moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity and wear-time) (6.7 h and 7.3 h respectively) and less time sitting (7.1 h and 6.9 h respectively) than those in obese (n = 6) categories (5.5 h and 8.0 h respectively) after adjustment for wear-time (p < 0.001). There were no significant differences in standing and sitting time between normal weight and overweight groups (p = 0.051 and p = 0.670 respectively). Differences were not significant among groups for lying time (p = 0.55). Conclusion This study described postural allocations standing, lying, and sitting among normal weight, overweight, and obese sedentary adults. The results provide additional evidence for the use of increasing standing time in obesity prevention strategies.

Effects of free flow state highway traffic parameters on the performance of amplify and forward cooperative multi-hop vehicular networks

In this paper we analyse the effects of highway traffic flow parameters like vehicle arrival rate and density on the performance of Amplify and Forward (AF) cooperative vehicular networks along a multi-lane highway under free flow state. We derive analytical expressions for connectivity performance and verify them with Monte-Carlo simulations. When AF cooperative relaying is employed together with Maximum Ratio Combining (MRC) at the receivers the average route error rate shows 10-20 fold improvement compared to direct communication. A 4-8 fold increase in maximum number of traversable hops can also be observed at different vehicle densities when AF cooperative communication is used to strengthen communication routes. However the theorical upper bound of maximum number of hops promises higher performance gains.

Lattice-free models of cell invasion : discrete simulations and travelling waves

Invasion waves of cells play an important role in development, disease and repair. Standard discrete models of such processes typically involve simulating cell motility, cell proliferation and cell-to-cell crowding effects in a lattice-based framework. The continuum-limit description is often given by a reaction–diffusion equation that is related to the Fisher–Kolmogorov equation. One of the limitations of a standard lattice-based approach is that real cells move and proliferate in continuous space and are not restricted to a predefined lattice structure. We present a lattice-free model of cell motility and proliferation, with cell-to-cell crowding effects, and we use the model to replicate invasion wave-type behaviour. The continuum-limit description of the discrete model is a reaction–diffusion equation with a proliferation term that is different from lattice-based models. Comparing lattice based and lattice-free simulations indicates that both models lead to invasion fronts that are similar at the leading edge, where the cell density is low. Conversely, the two models make different predictions in the high density region of the domain, well behind the leading edge. We analyse the continuum-limit description of the lattice based and lattice-free models to show that both give rise to invasion wave type solutions that move with the same speed but have very different shapes. We explore the significance of these differences by calibrating the parameters in the standard Fisher–Kolmogorov equation using data from the lattice-free model. We conclude that estimating parameters using this kind of standard procedure can produce misleading results.

Interferon-free therapy for hepatitis C, how prepared is Australia for biosimilars?

The Hepatitis C virus (HCV) affects some 150 million people worldwide. However, unlike hepatitis A and B there is no vaccination for HCV and approximately 75% of people exposed to HCV develop chronic hepatitis. In Australia, around 226,700 people live with chronic HCV infection costing the government approximately $252 million per year. Historically, the standard approved/licenced treatment for HCV is pegylated interferon with ribavirin. There are major drawbacks with interferon-based therapy including side effects, long duration of therapy, limited access and affordability. Our previous survey of an at-risk population reported HCV treatment coverage of only 5%. Since April 2013, a new class of interferon-free treatments for chronic HCV is subsidised under the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme: boceprevir and telaprevir - estimated to cost the Australian Government in excess of $220 million over five years. Other biologic interferon-free therapeutic agents are scheduled to enter the Australian market. Use of small molecule generic pharmaceuticals has been advocated as a means of public cost savings. However, with the new biologic agents, generics (biosimilars) may not be feasible or straightforward, due to long patent life; marketing exclusivity; and regulatory complexity for these newer products.

Performance of a cognitive, but not visual, secondary task interacts with alcohol-induced balance impairment in novice and experienced motorcycle riders

The appropriateness of applying drink driving legislation to motorcycle riding has been questioned as there may be fundamental differences in the effects of alcohol on driving and motorcycling. It has been suggested that alcohol may redirect riders’ focus from higher-order cognitive skills such as cornering, judgement and hazard perception, to more physical skills such as maintaining balance. To test this hypothesis, the effects of low doses of alcohol on balance ability were investigated in a laboratory setting. The static balance of twenty experienced and twenty novice riders was measured while they performed either no secondary task, a visual (search) task, or a cognitive (arithmetic) task following the administration of alcohol (0%, 0.02%, and 0.05% BAC). Subjective ratings of intoxication and balance impairment increased in a dose-dependent manner in both novice and experienced motorcycle riders, while a BAC of 0.05%, but not 0.02%, was associated with impairments in static balance ability. This balance impairment was exacerbated when riders performed a cognitive, but not a visual, secondary task. Likewise, 0.05% BAC was associated with impairments in novice and experienced riders’ performance of a cognitive, but not a visual, secondary task, suggesting that interactive processes underlie balance and cognitive task performance. There were no observed differences between novice vs. experienced riders on static balance and secondary task performance, either alone or in combination. Implications for road safety and future ‘drink riding’ policy considerations are discussed.

Awesome foursome? The compatibility of situation awareness across drivers, riders, cyclists, and pedestrians

Collisions between distinct road users (e.g. drivers and motorcyclists) make a substantial contribution to the road trauma burden. Although evidence suggests distinct road users interpret the same road situations differently, it is not clear how road users’ situation awareness differs, nor is it clear which differences might lead to conflicts. This article presents the findings from an on-road study which examined driver, cyclist, motorcyclist and pedestrian situation awareness at intersections. The findings suggest that situation awareness at intersection is markedly different across the four road user groups studied, and that some of these differences may create conflicts between the different road users. The findings also suggest that the causes of the differences identified relate to road design and road user experience. In closing, the key role of road design and training in supporting safe interactions between distinct road users is discussed.

Precedent-free fault isolation in a diesel engine EGR valve system

In this paper, a framework for isolating unprecedented faults for an EGR valve system is presented. Using normal behavior data generated by a high fidelity engine simulation, the recently introduced Growing Structure Multiple Model System (GSMMS) is used to construct models of normal behavior for an EGR valve system and its various subsystems. Using the GSMMS models as a foundation, anomalous behavior of the entire system is then detected as statistically significant departures of the most recent modeling residuals from the modeling residuals during normal behavior. By reconnecting anomaly detectors to the constituent subsystems, the anomaly can be isolated without the need for prior training using faulty data. Furthermore, faults that were previously encountered (and modeled) are recognized using the same approach as the anomaly detectors.

Precedent-free fault isolation in a diesel engine exhaust gas recirculation system

In this paper, a recently introduced model-based method for precedent-free fault detection and isolation (FDI) is modified to deal with multiple input, multiple output (MIMO) systems and is applied to an automotive engine with exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) system. Using normal behavior data generated by a high fidelity engine simulation, the growing structure multiple model system (GSMMS) approach is used to construct dynamic models of normal behavior for the EGR system and its constituent subsystems. Using the GSMMS models as a foundation, anomalous behavior is detected whenever statistically significant departures of the most recent modeling residuals away from the modeling residuals displayed during normal behavior are observed. By reconnecting the anomaly detectors (ADs) to the constituent subsystems, EGR valve, cooler, and valve controller faults are isolated without the need for prior training using data corresponding to particular faulty system behaviors.

Modeling the viability of the free-ranging cheetah population in Namibia : an object-oriented Bayesian network approach

Conservation of free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations is multi faceted and needs to be addressed from an ecological, biological and management perspective. There is a wealth of published research, each focusing on a particular aspect of cheetah conservation. Identifying the most important factors, making sense of various (and sometimes contrasting) findings, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing conservationists. Bayesian networks (BN) provide a statistical modeling framework that enables analysis and integration of information addressing different aspects of conservation. There has been an increased interest in the use of BNs to model conservation issues, however the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilizing object-oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. We describe an integrated, parallel modeling process followed during a BN modeling workshop held in Namibia to combine expert knowledge and data about free-ranging cheetahs. The aim of the workshop was to obtain a more comprehensive view of the current viability of the free-ranging cheetah population in Namibia, and to predict the effect different scenarios may have on the future viability of this free-ranging cheetah population. Furthermore, a complementary aim was to identify influential parameters of the model to more effectively target those parameters having the greatest impact on population viability. The BN was developed by aggregating diverse perspectives from local and independent scientists, agents from the national ministry, conservation agency members and local fieldworkers. This integrated BN approach facilitates OO modeling in a multi-expert context which lends itself to a series of integrated, yet independent, subnetworks describing different scientific and management components. We created three subnetworks in parallel: a biological, ecological and human factors network, which were then combined to create a complete representation of free-ranging cheetah population viability. Such OOBNs have widespread relevance to the effective and targeted conservation management of vulnerable and endangered species.

What can we learn from the crashes of learner riders?

In some parts of Australia, people wanting to learn to ride a motorcycle are required to complete an off-road training course before they are allowed to practice on the road. In the state of Queensland, they are only required to pass a short multiple-choice road rules knowledge test. This paper describes an analysis of police-reported crashes involving learner riders in Queensland that was undertaken as part of research investigating whether pre-learner training is needed and, if so, the issues that should be addressed in training.. The crashes of learner riders and other riders were compared to identify whether there are particular situations or locations in which learner motorcyclists are over-involved in crashes, which could then be targeted in the pre-learner package. The analyses were undertaken separately for riders aged under 25 (330 crashes) versus those aged 25 and over (237 crashes) to provide some insight into whether age or riding inexperience are the more important factors, and thus to indicate whether there are merits in having different licensing or training approaches for younger and older learner riders. Given that the average age of learner riders was 33 years, under 25 was chosen to provide a sufficiently large sample of younger riders. Learner riders appeared to be involved in more severe crashes and to be more often at fault than fully-licensed riders but this may reflect problems in reporting, rather than real differences. Compared to open licence holders, both younger and older learner riders had relatively more crashes in low speed zones and relatively fewer in high speed zones. Riders aged under 25 had elevated percentages of night-time crashes and fewer single unit (potentially involving rider error only) crashes regardless of the type of licence held. The contributing factors that were more prevalent in crashes of learner riders than holders of open licences were: inexperience (37.2% versus 0.5%), inattention (21.5% versus 15.6%), alcohol or drugs (12.0% versus 5.1%) and drink riding (9.9% versus 3.1%). The pattern of contributing factors was generally similar for younger and older learner riders, although younger learners were (not surprisingly) more likely to have inexperience coded as a contributing factor (49.7% versus 19.8%). Some of the differences in crashes between learner riders and fully-licensed riders appear to reflect relatively more riding in urban areas by learners, rather than increased risks relating to inexperience. The analysis of contributing factors in learner rider crashes suggests that hazard perception and risk management (in terms of speed and alcohol and drugs) should be included in a pre-learner program. Currently, most learner riders in Queensland complete pre-licence training and become licensed within one month of obtaining their learner permit. If the introduction of pre-learner training required that the learner permit was held for a minimum duration, then the immediate effect might be more learners riding (and crashing). Thus, it is important to consider how training and licensing initiatives work together in order to improve the safety of new riders (and how this can be evaluated).

Identifying and characterising crashes of returning riders - a new approach

Surveys have identified that many older motorcyclists are returning riders but it is difficult to draw conclusions about their crash risk because of discrepancies in definitions and the inability to identify returning riders in official crash databases. Analyses of NSW crash data were undertaken in which returning riders were defined as aged 25 and over, holding a full licence 10 years prior to the crash, and not the registered operator of one or more motorcycles during the 5-10 years prior to the crash. Based on this definition, there were 472 riders in casualty crashes in 2005-09 who were returning riders (5.5% of riders aged 25 and over in casualty crashes) and the characteristics of their crashes were similar to those involving continuing riders. In contrast, crashes of new riders were more likely to have characteristics suggestive of relatively more riding in urban areas, probably for transport rather than recreation. More work is recommended to assess the validity of the definition to allow a better understanding of the effects of long periods away from riding on riding skills and crash risk.

Lattice-free descriptions of collective motion with crowding and adhesion

Cell-to-cell adhesion is an important aspect of malignant spreading that is often observed in images from the experimental cell biology literature. Since cell-to-cell adhesion plays an important role in controlling the movement of individual malignant cells, it is likely that cell-to-cell adhesion also influences the spatial spreading of populations of such cells. Therefore, it is important for us to develop biologically realistic simulation tools that can mimic the key features of such collective spreading processes to improve our understanding of how cell-to-cell adhesion influences the spreading of cell populations. Previous models of collective cell spreading with adhesion have used lattice-based random walk frameworks which may lead to unrealistic results, since the agents in the random walk simulations always move across an artificial underlying lattice structure. This is particularly problematic in high-density regions where it is clear that agents in the random walk align along the underlying lattice, whereas no such regular alignment is ever observed experimentally. To address these limitations, we present a lattice-free model of collective cell migration that explicitly incorporates crowding and adhesion. We derive a partial differential equation description of the discrete process and show that averaged simulation results compare very well with numerical solutions of the partial differential equation.