Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Global forest governance

This book identifies the fundamental legal principles and the governance requirements of sustainable forest management. An analytical model for assessing forest regulation is created which identifies the doctrinal concepts that underpin forest regulation (justice, property, sovereignty and governance). It also highlights the dominant public international institutions involved in forest regulation (UNFF, UNFCCC and WB) which is followed by analysis of non-state international forest regulation (forest certification and ecosystem markets). The book concludes by making a number of practical recommendations for reform of global forest governance arrangements and suggested reforms for individual international forest institutions.

The legal nature of justice in REDD+

Formation of Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) policy within the international climate regime has raised a number of discussions about ‘justice’. REDD+ aims to provide an incentive for developing countries to preserve or increase the amount of carbon stored in their forested areas. Governance of REDD+ is multi-layered: at the international level, a guiding framework must be determined; at the national level, strong legal frameworks are a pre-requisite to ensure both public and private investor confidence and at the sub-national level, forest-dependent peoples need to agree to participate as stewards of forest carbon project areas. At the international level the overall objective of REDD+ is yet to be determined, with competing mitigation, biological and justice agendas. Existing international law pertaining to the environment (international environmental principles and law, IEL) and human rights (international human rights law, IHRL) should inform the development of international and national REDD+ policy especially in relation to ensuring the environmental integrity of projects and participation and benefit-sharing rights for forest dependent communities. National laws applicable to REDD+ must accommodate the needs of all stakeholders and articulate boundaries which define their interactions, paying particular attention to ensuring that vulnerable groups are protected. This paper i) examines justice theories and IEL and IHRL to inform our understanding of what ‘justice’ means in the context of REDD+, and ii) applies international law to create a reference tool for policy-makers dealing with the complex sub-debates within this emerging climate policy. We achieve this by: 1) Briefly outlining theories of justice (for example – perspectives offered by anthropogenic and ecocentric approaches, and views from ‘green economics’). 2) Commenting on what ‘climate justice’ means in the context of REDD+. 3) Outlining a selection of IEL and IHRL principles and laws to inform our understanding of ‘justice’ in this policy realm (for example – common but differentiated responsibilities, the precautionary principle, sovereignty and prevention drawn from the principles of IEL, the UNFCCC and CBD as relevant conventions of international environmental law; and UNDRIP and the Declaration on the Right to Development as applicable international human rights instruments) 4) Noting how this informs what ‘justice’ is for different REDD+ stakeholders 5) Considering how current law-making (at both the international and national levels) reflects these principles and rules drawn from international law 6) Presenting how international law can inform policy-making by providing a reference tool of applicable international law and how it could be applied to different issues linked to REDD+. As such, this paper will help scholars and policy-makers to understand how international law can assist us to both conceptualise and embody ‘justice’ within frameworks for REDD+ at both the international and national levels.

Australia and Forest Carbon Partnerships : Indigenous Land Rights

One of the ways in which indigenous communities seek justice is through the formal recognition of their sovereign rights to land. Such recognition allows indigenous groups to maintain a physical and spiritual connection with their land and continue customary management of their land. Indigenous groups world over face significant hurdles in getting their customary rights to land recognized by legal systems. One of the main difficulties for indigenous groups in claiming customary land rights is the existence of a range of conflicting legal entitlements attaching to the land in question. In Australia, similar to New Zealand and Canada legal recognition to customary land is recognized through a grant of native title rights or through the establishment of land use agreement. In other jurisdictions such as Indonesia and Papua New Guinea a form of customary land title has been preserved and is recognized by the legal system. The implementation of REDD+ and other forms of forest carbon investment activities compounds the already complex arrangements surrounding legal recognition of customary land rights. Free, prior and informed consent of indigenous groups is essential for forest carbon investment on customary land. The attainment of such consent in practice remains challenging due to the number of conflicting interests often associated with forested land. This paper examines Australia’s experience in recongising indigenous land rights under its International Forest Carbon Initiative and under its domestic Carbon Credits (Carbon Farming Initiative) Act (Australia) 2011. Australia’s International Forest Carbon initiative has a budget of $273 million dollars. In 2008 the governments of Australia and Indonesia signed the Indonesia-Australia Forest Carbon Partnership Agreement. This paper will examine the indigenous land tenure and justice lessons learned from the implementation of the Kalimantan Forest and Climate Partnership (KFCP). The KFCP is $30 million dollar project taking place over 120,000 hectares of degraded and forested peatland in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. The KFCP project site contains seven villages of the Dayak Ngdu indigenous people. In 2011 Australia established a domestic Forest Carbon Initiative, which seeks to provide new economic opportunities for farmers, forest growers and indigenous landholders while helping the environmental by reducing carbon pollution. This paper will explore the manner in which indigenous people are able to participate within these scheme noting the limits and opportunities in deriving co-benefits for indigenous people in Australia under this scheme.

Wetlands, climate zones and Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is the second most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia, but the linkages of the wetlands and climate zones with BFV transmission remain unclear. We aimed to examine the relationship between the wetlands, climate zones and BFV risk in Queensland, Australia. Data on the wetlands, climate zones, population and BFV cases for the period 1992 to 2008 were obtained from relevant government agencies. BFV risk was grouped as low-, medium- and high-level based on BFV incidence percentiles. The buffer zones around each BFV case were made using 1, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 50 km distances. We performed a discriminant analysis to determine the differences between wetland classes and BFV risk within each climate zone. The discriminant analyses show that saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant contributors to BFV risk in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. These models had classification accuracies of 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV risk varies with wetland class and climate zone. The discriminant analysis is a useful tool to quantify the links between wetlands, climate zones and BFV risk.

Comment on "Local accumulation times for source, diffusion, and degradation models in two and three dimensions" [J. Chem. Phys. 138, 104121 (2013)]

In a recent paper, Gordon, Muratov, and Shvartsman studied a partial differential equation (PDE) model describing radially symmetric diffusion and degradation in two and three dimensions. They paid particular attention to the local accumulation time (LAT), also known in the literature as the mean action time, which is a spatially dependent timescale that can be used to provide an estimate of the time required for the transient solution to effectively reach steady state. They presented exact results for three-dimensional applications and gave approximate results for the two-dimensional analogue. Here we make two generalizations of Gordon, Muratov, and Shvartsman’s work: (i) we present an exact expression for the LAT in any dimension and (ii) we present an exact expression for the variance of the distribution. The variance provides useful information regarding the spread about the mean that is not captured by the LAT. We conclude by describing further extensions of the model that were not considered by Gordon,Muratov, and Shvartsman. We have found that exact expressions for the LAT can also be derived for these important extensions...

Cryptic diversity and evolutionary relationships among Australian closed-forest Melomys (Rodentia: Muridae) and related Australo-Papuan mosaic-tailed rats

This thesis investigates patterns of evolution in a group of native Australo-Papuan rodents. Past climatic change and associated sea level fluctuations, and fragmentation of wet forests in eastern Australia has facilitated rapid radiation, diversification and speciation in this group. This study adds to our understanding of the evolution of Australia’s rainforest fauna and describes the evolutionary relationships of a new genus of Australian rodent.

Role of land use and seasonal factors in water quality degradation

Surface water and groundwater are the most important water sources in the natural environment. Land use and seasonal factors play an important role in influencing the quality of these water sources. An in-depth understanding of the role of these two influential factors can help to implement an effective catchment management strategy for the protection of these water sources. This paper discusses the outcomes of an extensive research study which investigated the role of land use and seasonal factors on surface water and groundwater pollution in a mixed land use coastal catchment. The study confirmed that the influence exerted on the water environment by seasonal factors is secondary to that of land use. Furthermore, the influence of land use and seasonal factors on surface water and groundwater quality varies with the pollutant species. This highlights the need to specifically take into consideration the targeted pollutants and the key influential factors for the effective protection of vulnerable receiving water environments.

Investigating the association between sun exposure and folate degradation in the human body

This thesis is the first study to investigate the associations between sun exposure and folate degradation in a group of childbearing age women in a high UV environment. It examined whether the degree of sun exposure experienced by women influenced blood folate levels following a period of folic acid supplementation and found a strong significant relationship between increased sun exposure and folate degradation. This relationship has strong implications for public health and the thesis has provided a foundation for further research in this area.

Degradation of simazine from aqueous solutions by diatomite-supported nanosized zero-valent iron composite materials

A novel composite material based on deposition of nanosized zero-valent iron (nZVI) particles on acid-leached diatomite was synthesised for the removal of a chlorinated contaminant in water. The nZVI /diatomite composites were characterized by X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, elemental analysis, transmission electron microscopy and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. Compared with the pure nZVI particles, better dispersion of nZVI particles on the surface or inside the pores of diatom shells was observed. The herbicide simazine was selected as the model chlorinated contaminant and the removal efficiency by nZVI /diatomite composite was compared with that of the pristine nZVI and commercial iron powder. It was found that the diatomite supported nZVI composite material prepared by centrifugation exhibits relatively better efficient activity in decomposition of simazine than commercial Fe, lab synthesized nZVI and composite material prepared via rotary evaporation, and the optimum experimental conditions were obtained based on a series of batch experiments. This study on immobilizing nZVI particles onto diatomite opens a new avenue for the practical application of nZVI and the diatomite-supported nanosized zero-valent iron composite materials have potential applications in environmental remediation.

The Enamovirus P0 protein is a silencing suppressor which inhibits local and systemic RNA silencing through AGO1 degradation

The P0 protein of poleroviruses and P1 protein of sobemoviruses suppress the plant's RNA silencing machinery. Here we identified a silencing suppressor protein (SSP), P0PE, in the Enamovirus Pea enation mosaic virus-1 (PEMV-1) and showed that it and the P0s of poleroviruses Potato leaf roll virus and Cereal yellow dwarf virus have strong local and systemic SSP activity, while the P1 of Sobemovirus Southern bean mosaic virus supresses systemic silencing. The nuclear localized P0PE has no discernable sequence conservation with known SSPs, but proved to be a strong suppressor of local silencing and a moderate suppressor of systemic silencing. Like the P0s from poleroviruses, P0PE destabilizes AGO1 and this action is mediated by an F-box-like domain. Therefore, despite the lack of any sequence similarity, the poleroviral and enamoviral SSPs have a conserved mode of action upon the RNA silencing machinery. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest Virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Tuning the surface structure of nitrogen-doped TiO2Nanofibres : an effective method to rnhance photocatalytic activities of visible-light-driven green synthesis and degradation

Nitrogen-doped TiO2 nanofibres of anatase and TiO2(B) phases were synthesised by a reaction between titanate nanofibres of a layered structure and gaseous NH3 at 400–700 °C, following a different mechanism than that for the direct nitrogen doping from TiO2. The surface of the N-doped TiO2 nanofibres can be tuned by facial calcination in air to remove the surface-bonded N species, whereas the core remains N doped. N-Doped TiO2 nanofibres, only after calcination in air, became effective photocatalysts for the decomposition of sulforhodamine B under visible-light irradiation. The surface-oxidised surface layer was proven to be very effective for organic molecule adsorption, and the activation of oxygen molecules, whereas the remaining N-doped interior of the fibres strongly absorbed visible light, resulting in the generation of electrons and holes. The N-doped nanofibres were also used as supports of gold nanoparticle (Au NP) photocatalysts for visible-light-driven hydroamination of phenylacetylene with aniline. Phenylacetylene was activated on the N-doped surface of the nanofibres and aniline on the Au NPs. The Au NPs adsorbed on N-doped TiO2(B) nanofibres exhibited much better conversion (80 % of phenylacetylene) than when adsorbed on undoped fibres (46 %) at 40 °C and 95 % of the product is the desired imine. The surface N species can prevent the adsorption of O2 that is unfavourable for the hydroamination reaction, and thus, improve the photocatalytic activity. Removal of the surface N species resulted in a sharp decrease of the photocatalytic activity. These photocatalysts are feasible for practical applications, because they can be easily dispersed into solution and separated from a liquid by filtration, sedimentation or centrifugation due to their fibril morphology.

Characterising in situ activation and degradation of hindered amine light stabilisers using liquid extraction surface analysis-mass spectrometry

Changes in the molecular structure of polymer antioxidants such as hindered amine light stabilisers (HALS) is central to their efficacy in retarding polymer degradation and therefore requires careful monitoring during their in-service lifetime. The HALS, bis-(1-octyloxy-2,2,6,6-tetramethyl-4-piperidinyl) sebacate (TIN123) and bis-(1,2,2,6,6-pentamethyl-4-piperidinyl) sebacate (TIN292), were formulated in different polymer systems and then exposed to various curing and ageing treatments to simulate in-service use. Samples of these coatings were then analysed directly using liquid extraction surface analysis (LESA) coupled with a triple quadrupole mass spectrometer. Analysis of TIN123 formulated in a cross-linked polyester revealed that the polymer matrix protected TIN123 from undergoing extensive thermal degradation that would normally occur at 292 degrees C, specifically, changes at the 1- and 4-positions of the piperidine groups. The effect of thermal versus photo-oxidative degradation was also compared for TIN292 formulated in polyacrylate films by monitoring the in situ conversion of N-CH3 substituted piperidines to N-H. The analysis confirmed that UV light was required for the conversion of N-CH3 moieties to N-H - a major pathway in the antioxidant protection of polymers - whereas this conversion was not observed with thermal degradation. The use of tandem mass spectrometric techniques, including precursor-ion scanning, is shown to be highly sensitive and specific for detecting molecular-level changes in HALS compounds and, when coupled with LESA, able to monitor these changes in situ with speed and reproducibility. (C) 2013 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Spatially-explicit modelling of grassland classes - an improved method of integrating a climate-based classification model with interpolated climate surfaces

Spatially-explicit modelling of grassland classes is important to site-specific planning for improving grassland and environmental management over large areas. In this study, a climate-based grassland classification model, the Comprehensive and Sequential Classification System (CSCS) was integrated with spatially interpolated climate data to classify grassland in Gansu province, China. The study area is characterized by complex topographic features imposed by plateaus, high mountains, basins and deserts. To improve the quality of the interpolated climate data and the quality of the spatial classification over this complex topography, three linear regression methods, namely an analytic method based on multiple regression and residues (AMMRR), a modification of the AMMRR method through adding the effect of slope and aspect to the interpolation analysis (M-AMMRR) and a method which replaces the IDW approach for residue interpolation in M-AMMRR with an ordinary kriging approach (I-AMMRR), for interpolating climate variables were evaluated. The interpolation outcomes from the best interpolation method were then used in the CSCS model to classify the grassland in the study area. Climate variables interpolated included the annual cumulative temperature and annual total precipitation. The results indicated that the AMMRR and M-AMMRR methods generated acceptable climate surfaces but the best model fit and cross validation result were achieved by the I-AMMRR method. Twenty-six grassland classes were classified for the study area. The four grassland vegetation classes that covered more than half of the total study area were "cool temperate-arid temperate zonal semi-desert", "cool temperate-humid forest steppe and deciduous broad-leaved forest", "temperate-extra-arid temperate zonal desert", and "frigid per-humid rain tundra and alpine meadow". The vegetation classification map generated in this study provides spatial information on the locations and extents of the different grassland classes. This information can be used to facilitate government agencies' decision-making in land-use planning and environmental management, and for vegetation and biodiversity conservation. The information can also be used to assist land managers in the estimation of safe carrying capacities which will help to prevent overgrazing and land degradation.