Experimental studies of gypsum plasterboards and composite panels under fire conditions

Gypsum plasterboards are commonly used to protect the light gauge steel-framed walls in buildings from fires. Single or multiple plasterboards can be used for this purpose, whereas recent research has proposed a composite panel with a layer of external insulation between two plasterboards. However, a good understanding of the thermal behaviour of these plasterboard panels under fire conditions is not known. Therefore, 15 small-scale fire tests were conducted on plasterboard panels made of 13 and 16 mm plasterboards and four different types of insulations with varying thickness and density subject to standard fire conditions in AS 1530.4. Fire performance of single and multiple layers of gypsum plasterboards was assessed including the effects of interfaces between adjacent plasterboards. Effects of using external insulations such as glass fibre, rockwool and cellulose fibre were also determined. The thermal performance of composite panels developed from different insulating materials of varying densities and thicknesses was examined and compared. This paper presents the details of the fire tests conducted in this study and their valuable time–temperature data for the tested plasterboard panels. These data can be used for the purpose of developing and validating accurate thermal numerical models of these panels.

The use of amenities in high density neighbourhoods by older urban Australians residents

Like other major cities, Brisbane (Australia) has adopted policies to increase residential densities to meet the liveability goal of decreasing car dependence. This objective hinges on urban neighbourhoods being amenity-rich spaces, reducing the need for residents to leave their neighbourhood for everyday living. While older people are attracted to urban settings, there has been little empirical evidence linking liveability satisfaction with older people's use of urban neighbourhoods. Using a case study approach employing qualitative (diaries, in-depth interviews) and quantitative (Global Positioning Systems and Geographical Information Systems mapping) methods,this paper explores the effect of the neighbourhood environment and its influence on liveability for older urban people. Reliance on motor vehicles and issues with availability and access to local amenities inhibit local participation for older people. Highlighting these issues furthers our understanding of the landscape planning and design factors that make urban neighbourhoods more liveable for older residents.

Understanding neighbourhood liveability for older urban Australians

As with other major developed cities, the sub-tropical and fastest growing Australian capital city of Brisbane has adopted policies designed to increase residential densities and meet the liveability and sustainability goal of decreasing car dependence and greenhouse gas emissions. This goal hinges on a pedestrian friendly environment and walkable proximity to satisfy everyday needs. While older people are particularly attracted to sub-tropical urban environments, there has been little empirical evidence linking liveability satisfaction and perceived and actual use of older people’s urban neighbourhood. Using qualitative (diaries and in-depth interviews) and quantitative (Global Positioning Systems and Geographical Information Systems mapping) liveability research data this paper explores whether high density supports liveability and is sustainable for older people living in a sub-tropical urban environment. This paper links satisfaction and perceived use of the sub-tropical urban Brisbane environment with actual mapped characteristics and use. Linking the two methods (both quantitative and qualitative) is important in obtaining a greater understanding of human behaviour and the lived world of older urban Australians and in providing a wider picture of sub-tropical urban neighbourhoods for a significant population group within those neighbourhoods. What emerges from the research is an uneven standard of design, provision of amenities and maintenance of the public realm which negatively impacts on local neighbourhood participation by older urban Australians. By highlighting these issues this research furthers the understanding of design factors which make the sub-tropical urban neighbourhood more liveable and sustainable for older people and will inform actionable and implementable policies, programs and designs.

The impacts of power outages on the residents of contemporary multistorey apartment buildings in subtropical environments

With significant population growth experienced in South East Queensland over the past two decades and a high rate of growth expected to continue in coming decades, the Queensland Government is promoting urban consolidation planning policies to manage growth sustainably. Multi-residential buildings will play an important role in facilitating the increased densities which urban consolidation policies imply. However, a major flood event in January 2011 has brought to light the vulnerability of certain types of multi-residential typologies to power outages. The crisis conditions exposed how contemporary building design and construction practices, coupled with regulatory and planning issues, appear to have compromised the resilience and habitability of multi-storey residential buildings. In the greater urban area of Brisbane, Queensland, the debilitating dependence that certain types of apartment buildings have on mains electricity was highlighted by residents’ experiences of the Brisbane River flood disaster, before, during and after the event. This research examined high density residential buildings in West End, Brisbane, an inner city suburb which was severely affected by the flood and is earmarked for significant urban densification under the Brisbane City Plan. Medium-to-high-density residential buildings in the suburb were mapped in flooded and non-flooded locations and a database containing information about the buildings was created. Parameters included date of construction, number of storeys, systems of access and circulation, and potential for access to natural light and ventilation for habitable areas. A series of semi-structured interviews were conducted with residents involved in the owners’ management committees of several buildings to verify information the mapping could not provide. The interviews identified a number of critical systems failures due to power outage which had a significant impact on residents’ wellbeing, comfort and safety. Building services such as lifts, running water, fire alarms, security systems and air-conditioning ceased to operate when power was disconnected to neighbourhoods and buildings in anticipation of rising flood waters. Lack of access to buildings and dwellings, lack of safety, lack of building security, and lack of thermal comfort affected many residents whether or not their buildings were actually subjected to inundation, with some buildings rendered uninhabitable for a prolonged period. The extent of the impact on residents was dramatically influenced by the scale and type of building inhabited, with those dwelling in buildings under a 25m height limit, with a single lift, found to be most affected. The energy-dependency and strong trend of increasing power demands of high-rise buildings is well-documented. Extended electricity outages such as the one brought about by the 2011 flood in Queensland are likely to happen more frequently than the 50-year average of the flood event itself. Electricity blackouts can result from a number of man-made or natural causes, including shortages caused by demand exceeding supply. This paper highlights the vulnerability of energy-dependent buildings to power outages and investigates options for energy security for occupants of multi-storey buildings and makes recommendations to increase resilience and general liveability in multi-residential buildings in the subtropics through design modifications.

On the efficacy of techniques for evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts

The performance of techniques for evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts are not yet as well understood as their univariate counterparts. This paper aims to evaluate the efficacy of a range of traditional statistical-based methods for multivariate forecast evaluation together with methods based on underlying considerations of economic theory. It is found that a statistical-based method based on likelihood theory and an economic loss function based on portfolio variance are the most effective means of identifying optimal forecasts of conditional covariance matrices.

Relationship among CFH and ARMS2 genotypes, macular pigment optical density, and neuroretinal function in persons without age-related macular degeneration

Purpose: To determine whether there is a difference in neuroretinal function and in macular pigment optical density between persons with high- and low-risk gene variants for age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and no ophthalmoscopic signs of AMD, and to compare the results on neuroretinal function to patients with manifest early AMD. Methods and Participants: Neuroretinal function was assessed with the multifocal electroretinogram (mfERG) for 32 participants (22 healthy persons with no AMD and 10 early AMD patients). The 22 healthy participants with no AMD had high- or low-risk genotypes for either CFH (rs380390) and/or ARMS2 (rs10490924). Trough-to-peak response densities and peak-implicit times were analyzed in 5 concentric rings. Macular pigment optical densitometry was assessed by customized heterochromatic flicker photometry. Results: Trough-to-peak response densities for concentric rings 1 to 3 were, on average, significantly greater in participants with high-risk genotypes than in participants with low-risk genotypes and in persons with early AMD after correction for age and smoking (p<0.05). The group peak- implicit times for ring 1 were, on average, delayed in the patients with early AMD compared with the participants with high- or low-risk genotypes, although these differences were not significant. There was no significant correlation between genotypes and macular pigment optical density. Conclusion: Increased neuroretinal activity in persons who carry high-risk AMD genotypes may be due to genetically determined subclinical inflammatory and/or histological changes in the retina. Neuroretinal function in healthy persons genetically susceptible to AMD may be a useful additional early biomarker (in combination with genetics) before there is clinical manifestation.

Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

A method for systematically pooling data in very early stage construction price forecasting

Client owners usually need an estimate or forecast of their likely building costs in advance of detailed design in order to confirm the financial feasibility of their projects. Because of their timing in the project life cycle, these early stage forecasts are characterized by the minimal amount of information available concerning the new (target) project to the point that often only its size and type are known. One approach is to use the mean contract sum of a sample, or base group, of previous projects of a similar type and size to the project for which the estimate is needed. Bernoulli’s law of large numbers implies that this base group should be as large as possible. However, increasing the size of the base group inevitably involves including projects that are less and less similar to the target project. Deciding on the optimal number of base group projects is known as the homogeneity or pooling problem. A method of solving the homogeneity problem is described involving the use of closed form equations to compare three different sampling arrangements of previous projects for their simulated forecasting ability by a cross-validation method, where a series of targets are extracted, with replacement, from the groups and compared with the mean value of the projects in the base groups. The procedure is then demonstrated with 450 Hong Kong projects (with different project types: Residential, Commercial centre, Car parking, Social community centre, School, Office, Hotel, Industrial, University and Hospital) clustered into base groups according to their type and size.

Cross layer optimization of VANET routing with multi-objective decision making

Vehicular Ad-hoc Networks (VANET) have different characteristics compared to other mobile ad-hoc networks. The dynamic nature of the vehicles which act as routers and clients are connected with unreliable radio links and Routing becomes a complex problem. First we propose CO-GPSR (Cooperative GPSR), an extension of the traditional GPSR (Greedy Perimeter Stateless Routing) which uses relay nodes which exploit radio path diversity in a vehicular network to increase routing performance. Next we formulate a Multi-objective decision making problem to select optimum packet relaying nodes to increase the routing performance further. We use cross layer information for the optimization process. We evaluate the routing performance more comprehensively using realistic vehicular traces and a Nakagami fading propagation model optimized for highway scenarios in VANETs. Our results show that when Multi-objective decision making is used for cross layer optimization of routing a 70% performance increment can be obtained for low vehicle densities on average, which is a two fold increase compared to the single criteria maximization approach.

Bioreactor for blood product production

The feasibility of ex vivo blood production is limited by both biological and engineering challenges. From an engineering perspective, these challenges include the significant volumes required to generate even a single unit of a blood product, as well as the correspondingly high protein consumption required for such large volume cultures. Membrane bioreactors, such as hollow fiber bioreactors (HFBRs), enable cell densities approximately 100-fold greater than traditional culture systems and therefore may enable a significant reduction in culture working volumes. As cultured cells, and larger molecules, are retained within a fraction of the system volume, via a semipermeable membrane it may be possible to reduce protein consumption by limiting supplementation to only this fraction. Typically, HFBRs are complex perfusion systems having total volumes incompatible with bench scale screening and optimization of stem cell-based cultures. In this article we describe the use of a simplified HFBR system to assess the feasibility of this technology to produce blood products from umbilical cord blood-derived CD34+ hematopoietic stem progenitor cells (HSPCs). Unlike conventional HFBR systems used for protein manufacture, where cells are cultured in the extracapillary space, we have cultured cells in the intracapillary space, which is likely more compatible with the large-scale production of blood cell suspension cultures. Using this platform we direct HSPCs down the myeloid lineage, while targeting a 100-fold increase in cell density and the use of protein-free bulk medium. Our results demonstrate the potential of this system to deliver high cell densities, even in the absence of protein supplementation of the bulk medium.

The impact of litigation risk on corporate prospective disclosure : a review of the empirical literature

We review the literature on the impact of litigation risk (a form of external governance) on corporate prospective disclosure decisions as reflected in management earnings forecasts. From this analysis we identify four key areas for future research. First, litigation risk warrants more attention from researchers; currently it tends to be treated as a secondary factor impacting MEF decisions. Second, it would be informative from a governance perspective for researchers to explore why litigation risk has a differential impact on MEF decisions across countries. Third, understanding the interaction between litigation risk and forecast/firm-specific characteristics is important from management, investor and regulatory perspectives but is currently under-explored Last, research on the litigation risk and MEF attributes link is piecemeal and incomplete, requiring more integrated and expanded analysis.

Towards a complete inventory of stratospheric dust particles, with implications for their classification

Several investigators have recently proposed classification schemes for stratospheric dust particles [1-3]. In addition, extraterrestrial materials within stratospheric dust collections may be used as a measure of micrometeorite flux [4]. However, little attention has been given to the problems of the stratospheric collection as a whole. Some of these problems include: (a) determination of accurate particle abundances at a given point in time; (b) the extent of bias in the particle selection process; (c) the variation of particle shape and chemistry with size; (d) the efficacy of proposed classification schemes and (e) an accurate determination of physical parameters associated with the particle collection process (e.g. minimum particle size collected, collection efficiency, variation of particle density with time). We present here preliminary results from SEM, EDS and, where appropriate, XRD analysis of all of the particles from a collection surface which sampled the stratosphere between 18 and 20km in altitude. Determinations of particle densities from this study may then be used to refine models of the behavior of particles in the stratosphere [5].

Utilising Reliability and Condition Monitoring Data for Asset Health Prognosis

The ability to forecast machinery health is vital to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime and safety hazards. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognostic models which attempt to forecast machinery health based on condition data such as vibration measurements. This paper demonstrates how the population characteristics and condition monitoring data (both complete and suspended) of historical items can be integrated for training an intelligent agent to predict asset health multiple steps ahead. The model consists of a feed-forward neural network whose training targets are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of the Kaplan–Meier estimator and a degradation-based failure probability density function estimator. The trained network is capable of estimating the future survival probabilities when a series of asset condition readings are inputted. The output survival probabilities collectively form an estimated survival curve. Pump data from a pulp and paper mill were used for model validation and comparison. The results indicate that the proposed model can predict more accurately as well as further ahead than similar models which neglect population characteristics and suspended data. This work presents a compelling concept for longer-range fault prognosis utilising available information more fully and accurately.

Bi-2212/Ag tapes and laminates : effects of bending

Superconducting Bi-2212 tapes and laminates are fabricated by a combination of dip-coating and partial melt processing. The heat treated tapes have critical current densities (Jc) up to 11 kAcm -2. We investigate the degradation of critical current (Ic) during bending experiments for both single tapes and tapes with laminate structure. Although degradation of Ic is observed in both forms, the characteristics of the degradation differ. It is determined that laminated tapes perform better than single tapes when critical current is measured against bending radius, and laminated tapes tolerate a higher strain for a given reduction in critical current. It is found that increasing the number of Bi-2212 layers increases the total Ic of the laminated tape, but degradation of critical current is more pronounced during bending because of the increased total thickness of the laminate structure. It is also found that addition of silver to the Bi-2212 layers reduces critical current degradation during bending for both tapes and laminates.

Melt-textured YBa2Cu3O7-x wires having plate-like grains

YBCO wires which consist of well oriented plate-like fine grains are fabricated using a moving furnace to achieve higher mechanical strength. Melt-texturing experiments have been undertaken on YBCO wires with two different compositions: YBa1.5Cu2.9O7-x, and YBa1.8Cu3.0O7-x. Wires are extruded from a mixture of precursor powders (formed by a coprecipitation process) then textured by firing in a moving furnace. Size of secondary phases such as barium cuprate and copper oxide, and overall composition of the sample affect the orientation of the fine grains. At zero magnetic field, the YBa1.5Cu2.9O7-x wire shows the highest critical current density of 1,450 Acm-2 and 8,770 Acm-2 at 77K and 4.2K, respectively. At 1 T, critical current densities of 30 Acm-2 and 200 Acm-2, respectively, are obtained at 77K and 4.2K. Magnetisation curves are also obtained for one sample to evaluate critical current density using the Bean model. Analysis of the microstructure indicates that the starting composition of the green body significantly affects the achievement of grain alignment via melt-texturing processes.