Risk modelling in quality clinical registries : Monitoring lesion treatment failure rate in percutaneous coronary interventions

Aims: This paper describes the development of a risk adjustment (RA) model predictive of individual lesion treatment failure in percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) for use in a quality monitoring and improvement program. Methods and results: Prospectively collected data for 3972 consecutive revascularisation procedures (5601 lesions) performed between January 2003 and September 2011 were studied. Data on procedures to September 2009 (n = 3100) were used to identify factors predictive of lesion treatment failure. Factors identified included lesion risk class (p < 0.001), occlusion type (p < 0.001), patient age (p = 0.001), vessel system (p < 0.04), vessel diameter (p < 0.001), unstable angina (p = 0.003) and presence of major cardiac risk factors (p = 0.01). A Bayesian RA model was built using these factors with predictive performance of the model tested on the remaining procedures (area under the receiver operating curve: 0.765, Hosmer–Lemeshow p value: 0.11). Cumulative sum, exponentially weighted moving average and funnel plots were constructed using the RA model and subjectively evaluated. Conclusion: A RA model was developed and applied to SPC monitoring for lesion failure in a PCI database. If linked to appropriate quality improvement governance response protocols, SPC using this RA tool might improve quality control and risk management by identifying variation in performance based on a comparison of observed and expected outcomes.

Alcohol and other drugs in the Australian construction industry : a pathway for safety focused cultural change

Background: Anecdotal evidence from the infrastructure and building sectors highlights issues of alcohol and other drugs (AODs) and its association with safety risk on construction sites. Currently, there is no clear evidence on the prevalence and risk of AOD use among Australian construction workers and there is limited evidential guidance regarding how to effectively address such an issue. Aims: The current research aims to scientifically evaluate the use of AODs within the Australian construction industry in order to reduce the potential resulting safety and performance impacts and engender a cultural change in the workforce. A nationally consistent and collaborative approach across the workforce will be adopted. Methods: A national assessment of the use of AODs was conducted in participating organisations across three states. The World Health Organisation’s Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) was used to measure alcohol use. Illicit drug use, ‘readiness to change’, impediments to reducing impairment, feasibility of proposed interventions, and employee attitudes and knowledge regarding AOD was also measured through a combination of survey items and interviews. Through an educative approach and consultation with employers, employees, union groups and leaders in applied AOD research, this assessment was used to inform and support cultural change management of AOD use in the industry. Results: Results (n=494) indicate that as in the general population, a proportion of those sampled in the construction sector may be at risk of hazardous alcohol consumption. A total of 286 respondents (58%) scored above the cut-off cumulative score for risky or hazardous alcohol use. Other drug use was also identified as a major issue. Interview responses and input from all project partners is presented within a guiding principle framework for cultural change. Conclusions: Results support the need for evidence-based, comprehensive and tailored responses in the workplace. This paper will discuss the final results in the context of facilitating cultural change in the construction industry.

Parametric and generative methods with building information modelling : connecting BIM with explorative design modelling

Parametric and generative modelling methods are ways in which computer models are made more flexible, and of formalising domain-specific knowledge. At present, no open standard exists for the interchange of parametric and generative information. The Industry Foundation Classes (IFC) which are an open standard for interoperability in building information models is presented as the base for an open standard in parametric modelling. The advantage of allowing parametric and generative representations are that the early design process can allow for more iteration and changes can be implemented quicker than with traditional models. This paper begins with a formal definition of what constitutes to be parametric and generative modelling methods and then proceeds to describe an open standard in which the interchange of components could be implemented. As an illustrative example of generative design, Frazer’s ‘Reptiles’ project from 1968 is reinterpreted.

International stock market linkages : are overnight returns on the U.S. Market informative?

Based on the theory of international stock market co-movements, this study shows that a profitable trading strategy can be developed. The U.S. market return is considered as overnight information by ordinary investors in the Asian and the European stock markets, and opening prices in local markets reflect the U.S. overnight return. However, smart traders would either judge the impact of overnight information more correctly, or predict unreleased information. Thus, the difference between expected opening prices based on the U.S. return and actual opening prices is counted as smart traders’ prediction power, which is either a buy or a sell signal. Using index futures price data from 12 countries from 2000 to 2011, cumulative returns on the trading strategy are calculated with taking into account transaction costs. The empirical results show that the proposed trading strategy generates higher riskadjusted returns than that of the benchmarks in 12 sample countries. The trading performances for the Asian markets surpass those for the European markets because the U.S. return is the only overnight information for the Asian markets whereas the Asian markets returns are additional information to the European investors.

Land use planning and the airport metropolis

Australian airports have emerged as important urban activity centres over the past decade as a result of privatisation. A range of reciprocal airport and regional impacts now pose considerable challenges for both airport operation and the surrounding urban and regional environment. The airport can no longer be managed solely as a specialised transport entity in isolation from the metropolis that it serves. In 2007 a multidisciplinary Australian Research Council Linkage Project (LP 0775225) was funded to investigate the changing role of airports in Australia. This thesis is but one component of this collaborative research effort. Here the issues surrounding the policy and practice of airport and regional land use planning are explored, analysed and detailed. This research, for the first time, assembles a distinct progression of the wider social, economic, technological and environmental roles of the airport within the Australian airport literature from 1914 – 2011. It recognises that while the list of airport and regional impacts has grown through time, treatment within practice and the literature has largely remained highly specialised and contained within disciplinary paradigms. The first publication of the thesis (Chapter 2) acknowledges that the changing role of airports demands the establishment of new models of airport planning and development. It argues that practice and research requires a better understanding of the reciprocal impacts of airports and their urban catchments. The second publication (Chapter 3) highlights that there is ad hoc examination and media attention of high profile airport and regional conflict, but little empirical analysis or understanding of the extent to which all privatised Australian airports are intending to develop. The conceptual and methodological significance of this research is the development of a national land use classification system for on-airport development. This paper establishes the extent of on-airport development in Australia, providing insight into the changing land use and economic roles of privatised airports. The third publication (Chapter 4) details new and significant interdependencies for airport and regional development in consideration of the progression of airports as activity centres. Here the model of an ‘airport metropolis’ is offered as an organising device and theoretical contribution for comprehending the complexity and planning of airport and regional development. It delivers a conceptual framework for both research and policy, which acknowledges the reciprocal impacts of economic development, land use, infrastructure and governance ‘interfaces’. In a timely and significant concurrence with this research the Australian Government announced and delivered a National Aviation Policy Review (2008 – 2009). As such the fourth publication (Chapter 5) focuses on the airport and urban planning aspects of the review. This paper also highlights the overall policy intention of facilitating broader airport and regional collaborative processes. This communicative turn in airport policy is significant in light of the communicative theoretical framework of the thesis. The fifth paper of the thesis (Chapter 6) examines three Australian case studies (Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra) to detail the context of airport and regional land use planning and to apply the airport metropolis model as a framework for research. Through the use of Land Use Forums, over 120 airport and regional stakeholders are brought together to detail their perspectives and interactions with airport and regional land use planning. An inductive thematic analysis of the results identifies three significant themes which contribute to the fragmentation of airport and regional and land use planning: 1) inadequate coordination and disjointed decision-making; 2) current legislative and policy frameworks; and 3) competing stakeholder priorities and interests. Building on this new knowledge, Chapter 7 details the perceptions of airport and local, state and territory government stakeholders to land use relationships, processes and outcomes. A series of semi-structured interviews are undertaken in each of the case studies to inform this research. The potential implications for ongoing communicative practice are discussed in conclusion. The following thesis represents an incremental and cumulative research process which delivers new knowledge for the practical understanding and research interpretation of airport and regional land use planning practice and policy. It has developed and applied a robust conceptual framework which delivers significant direction for all stakeholders to better comprehend the relevance of airports in the urban character and design of our cities.

Water absorption, permeability, and resistance to chloride-ion penetration of lightweight aggregate concrete

This paper presents an experimental study to evaluate effect of cumulative lightweight aggregate (LWA) content (including lightweight sand) in concrete [water/cement ratio (w/c) = 0.38] on its water absorption, water permeability, and resistance to chloride-ion penetration. Rapid chloride penetrability test (ASTM C 1202), rapid migration test (NT Build 492), and salt ponding test (AASHTO T 259) were conducted to evaluate the concrete resistance to chloride-ion penetration. The results were compared with those of a cement paste and a control normal weight aggregate concrete (NWAC) with the same w/c and a NWAC (w/c = 0.54) with 28-day compressive strength similar to some of the lightweight aggregate concrete (LWAC). Results indicate that although the total charge passed, migration coefficient, and diffusion coefficient of the LWAC were not significantly different from those of NWAC with the same w/c of 0.38, resistance of the LWAC to chloride penetration decreased with increase in the cumulative LWA content in the concretes. The water penetration depth under pressure and water sorptivity showed, in general, similar trends. The LWAC with only coarse LWA had similar water sorptivity, water permeability coefficient, and resistance to chloride-ion penetration compared to NWAC with similar w/c. The LWAC had lower water sorptivity, water permeability and higher resistance to chloride-ion penetration than the NWAC with similar 28-day strength but higher w/c. Both the NWAC and LWAC had lower sorptivity and higher resistance to chloride-ion penetration than the cement paste with similar w/c.

Digital storytelling as everyday activism : Queer identity, voice and networked publics

This thesis investigates the role of personal Digital Stories shared in public spaces as catalysts for social change. By analysing the influence of workshop facilitators, organisations, digital platforms and networked publics on voice and self-representation, it sheds light on shifting meanings of publicness and privacy, both face to face and online. This thesis argues that, despite numerous obstacles, the cumulative influence of diverse voices dispersed among networked publics shape new cultural norms, thereby contributing to gradual social change.

Understanding the operational structure of Southeast Asian drug trafficking groups in Australia

This thesis examined the operational structure of Southeast Asian drug trafficking groups operating on the eastern seaboard of Australia by testing the validity and application of organised crime and drug trafficking typologies using data obtained from 159 drug trafficking cases in three Australian states: New South Wales; Queensland; and Victoria. Key findings indicated that the usefulness of typologies is limited when classifying and analysing organised crime groups. In particular, Southeast Asian drug trafficking groups operated largely in small, informal, family-based hierarchies or groups that were better conceptualised using theoretical perspectives from network and cultural studies. The study recommended that replicating previous empirical research in the field is an effective approach that will contribute towards building a cumulative body of knowledge on organised crime structures.

A nurse-led model of oncogeriatric assessment

Background There is growing consensus that a multidisciplinary, comprehensive and standardised process for assessing the fitness of older patients for chemotherapy should be undertaken to determine appropriate cancer treatment. Aim This study tested a model of cancer care for the older patient incorporating Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA), which aimed to ensure that 'fit' individuals amenable to active treatment were accurately identified; 'vulnerable' patients more suitable for modified or supportive regimens were determined; and 'frail 'individuals who would benefit most from palliative regimens were also identified and offered the appropriate level of care. Methods A consecutive-series n=178 sample of patients >65 years was recruited from a major Australian cancer centre. The following instruments were administered by an oncogeriatric nurse prior to treatment: Vulnerable Elders Survey-13; Cumulative Illness Rating Scale (Geriatric); Malnutrition Screening Tool; Mini-mental State Examination; Geriatric Depression Scale; Barthel Index; and Lawton Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale. Scores from these instruments were aggregated to predict patient fitness, vulnerability or frailty for chemotherapy. Physicians provided a concurrent (blinded) prediction of patient fitness, vulnerability or frailty based on their clinical assessment. Data were also collected on actual patient outcomes (eg treatment completed as predicted, treatment reduced) during monthly audits of patient trajectories. Data analysis Data analysis is underway. A sample of 178 is adequate to detect, with 90% power, kappa coefficients of agreement between CGA and physician assessments of K>0.90 ("almost perfect agreement"). Primary endpoints comprise a) whether the nurse-led CGA determination of fit, vulnerable or frail agrees with the oncologist's assessments of fit, vulnerable or frail and b) whether the CGA and physician assessments accurately predict actual patient outcomes. Conclusion An oncogeriatric nurse-led model of care is currently being developed from the results. We conclude with a discussion of the pivotal role of nurses in CGA-based models of care.

Segmental torso masses and coronal plane joint torques in the adolescent scoliotic spine

Introduction. Calculating segmental (vertebral level-by-level) torso masses in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis (AIS) patients allows the gravitational loading on the scoliotic spine during relaxed standing to be determined. This study used CT scans of AIS patients to measure segmental torso masses and explores how joint moments in the coronal plane are affected by changes in the position of the intervertebral joint’s axis of rotation; particularly at the apex of a scoliotic major curve. Methods. Existing low dose CT data from the Paediatric Spine Research Group was used to calculate vertebral level-by-level torso masses and joint torques occurring in the spine for a group of 20 female AIS patients (mean age 15.0 ± 2.7 years, mean Cobb angle 53 ± 7.1°). Image processing software, ImageJ (v1.45 NIH USA) was used to threshold the T1 to L5 CT images and calculate the segmental torso volume and mass corresponding to each vertebral level. Body segment masses for the head, neck and arms were taken from published anthropometric data. Intervertebral (IV) joint torques at each vertebral level were found using principles of static equilibrium together with the segmental body mass data. Summing the torque contributions for each level above the required joint, allowed the cumulative joint torque at a particular level to be found. Since there is some uncertainty in the position of the coronal plane Instantaneous Axis of Rotation (IAR) for scoliosis patients, it was assumed the IAR was located in the centre of the IV disc. A sensitivity analysis was performed to see what effect the IAR had on the joint torques by moving it laterally 10mm in both directions. Results. The magnitude of the torso masses from T1-L5 increased inferiorly, with a 150% increase in mean segmental torso mass from 0.6kg at T1 to 1.5kg at L5. The magnitudes of the calculated coronal plane joint torques during relaxed standing were typically 5-7 Nm at the apex of the curve, with the highest apex joint torque of 7Nm being found in patient 13. Shifting the assumed IAR by 10mm towards the convexity of the spine, increased the joint torque at that level by a mean 9.0%, showing that calculated joint torques were moderately sensitive to the assumed IAR location. When the IAR midline position was moved 10mm away from the convexity of the spine, the joint torque reduced by a mean 8.9%. Conclusion. Coronal plane joint torques as high as 7Nm can occur during relaxed standing in scoliosis patients, which may help to explain the mechanics of AIS progression. This study provides new anthropometric reference data on vertebral level-by-level torso mass in AIS patients which will be useful for biomechanical models of scoliosis progression and treatment. However, the CT scans were performed in supine (no gravitational load on spine) and curve magnitudes are known to be smaller than those measured in standing.

Imagining neighbourhood-based community : an autoethnography

This research is an autoethnographic investigation of consumption experiences, public and quasi-public spaces, and their relationship to community within an inner city neighbourhood. The research specifically focuses on the gentrifying inner city, where class-based processes of change can have implications for people’s abilities to remain within, or feel connected to place. However, the thesis draws on broader theories of the throwntogetherness of the contemporary city (e.g., Amin and Thrift, 2002; Massey 2005) to argue that the city is a space where place-based meanings cannot be seen to be fixed, and are instead better understood as events of place – based on ever shifting interrelations between the trajectories of people and things. This perspective argues the experience of belonging to community is not just born of a social encounter, but also draws on the physical and symbolic elements of the context in which it is situated. The thesis particularly explores the ways people construct identifications within this shifting urban environment. As such, consumption practices and spaces offer one important lens through which to explore the interplay of the physical, social and symbolic. Consumer research tells us that consumption practices can facilitate experiences in which identity-defining meaning can be generated and shared. Consumption spaces can also support different kinds of collective identification – as anchoring realms for specific cultural groups or exposure realms that enable individuals to share in the identification practices of others with limited risk (Aubert-Gamet & Cova, 1999). Furthermore, the consumption-based lifestyles that gentrifying inner city neighbourhoods both support and encourage can also mean that consumption practices may be a key reason that people are moving through public space. That is, consumption practices and spaces may provide a purpose for which – and spatial frame against which – our everyday interactions and connections with people and objects are undertaken within such neighbourhoods. The purpose of this investigation then was to delve into the subjectivities at the heart of identifying with places, using the lens of our consumption-based experiences within them. The enquiry describes individual and collective identifications and emotional connections, and explores how these arise within and through our experiences within public and quasi-public spaces. It then theorises these ‘imaginings’ as representative of an experience of community. To do so, it draws on theories of imagination and its relation to community. Theories of imagined community remind us that both the values and identities of community are held together by projections that create relational links out of objects and shared practices (e.g., Benedict Anderson, 2006; Urry, 2000). Drawing on broader theories of the processes of the imagination, this thesis suggests that an interplay between reflexivity and fantasy – which are products of the critical and the fascinated consciousness – plays a role in this imagining of community (e.g., Brann, 1991; Ricoeur, 1994). This thesis therefore seeks to explore how these processes of imagining are implicated within the construction of an experience of belonging to neighbourhood-based community through consumption practices and the public and quasi-public spaces that frame them. The key question of this thesis is how do an individual’s consumption practices work to construct an imagined presence of neighbourhood-based community? Given the focus on public and quasi-public spaces and our experiences within them, the research also asked how do experiences in the public and quasi-public spaces that frame these practices contribute to the construction of this imagined presence? This investigation of imagining community through consumption practices is based on my own experiences of moving to, and attempting to construct community connections within, an inner city neighbourhood in Melbourne, Australia. To do so, I adopted autoethnographic methodology. This is because autoethnography provides the methodological tools through which one can explore and make visible the subjectivities inherent within the lived experiences of interest to the thesis (Ellis, 2004). I describe imagining community through consumption as an extension of a placebased self. This self is manifest through personal identification in consumption spaces that operate as anchoring realms for specific cultural groups, as well as through a broader imagining of spaces, people, and practices as connected through experiences within realms of exposure. However, this is a process that oscillates through cycles of identification; these anchor one within place personally, but also disrupt those attachments. This instability can force one to question the orientation and motives of these imaginings, and reframe them according to different spaces and reference groups in ways that can also work to construct a more anonymous and, conversely, more achievable collective identification. All the while, the ‘I’ at the heart of this identification is in an ongoing process of negotiation, and similarly, the imagined community is never complete. That is, imagining community is a negotiation, with people and spaces – but mostly with the different identifications of the self. This thesis has been undertaken by publication, and thus the process of imagining community is explored and described through four papers. Of these, the first two focus on specific types of consumption spaces – a bar and a shopping centre – and consider the ways that anchoring and exposure within these spaces support the process of imagining community. The third paper examines the ways that the public and quasi-public spaces that make up the broader neighbourhood context are themselves throwntogether as a realm of exposure, and considers the ways this shapes my imaginings of this neighbourhood as community. The final paper develops a theory of imagined community, as a process of comparison and contrast with imagined others, to provide a summative conceptualisation of the first three papers. The first paper, chapter five, explores this process of comparison and contrast in relation to authenticity, which in itself is a subjective assessment of identity. This chapter was written as a direct response to the recent work of Zukin (2010), and draws on theories of authenticity as applied to personal and collective identification practices by consumer researchers Arnould and Price (2000). In this chapter, I describe how my assessments of the authenticity of my anchoring experiences within one specific consumption space, a neighbourhood bar, are evaluated in comparison to my observations of and affective reactions to the social practices of another group of residents in a different consumption space, the local shopping centre. Chapter five also provides an overview of the key sites and experiences that are considered in more detail in the following two chapters. In chapter six, I again draw on my experiences within the bar introduced in chapter five, this time to explore the process of developing a regular identity within a specific consumption space. Addressing the popular theory of the cafe or bar as third place (Oldenburg, 1999), this paper considers the purpose of developing anchored relationships with people within specific consumption spaces, and explores the different ways this may be achieved in an urban context where the mobilities and lifestyle practices of residents complicate the idea of a consumption space as an anchoring or third place. In doing so, this chapter also considers the manner in which this type of regular identification may be seen to be the beginning of the process of imagining community. In chapter seven, I consider the ways the broader public spaces of the neighbourhood work cumulatively to expose different aspects of its identity by following my everyday movements through the neighbourhood’s shopping centre and main street. Drawing on the theories of Urry (2000), Massey (2005), and Amin (2007, 2008), this chapter describes how these spaces operate as exposure realms, enabling the expression of different senses of the neighbourhood’s spaces, times, cultures, and identities through their physical, social, and symbolic elements. Yet they also enable them to be united: through habitual pathways, group practices of appropriation of space, and memory traces that construct connections between objects and experiences. This chapter describes this as a process of exposure to these different elements. Our imagination begins to expand the scope of the frames onto which it projects an imagined presence; it searches for patterns within the physical, social, and symbolic environment and draws connections between people and practices across spaces. As the final paper, chapter eight, deduces, it is in making these connections that one constructs the objects and shared practices of imagined community. This chapter describes this as an imagining of neighbourhood as a place-based extension of the self, and then explores the ways in which I drew on physical, social, and symbolic elements in an attempt to construct a fit between the neighbourhood’s offerings and my desires for place-based identity definition. This was as a cumulative but fragmented process, in which positive and negative experiences of interaction and identification with people and things were searched for their potential to operate as the objects and shared practices of imagined community. This chapter describes these connections as constructed through interplay between reflexivity and fantasy, as the imagination seeks balance between desires for experiences of belonging, and the complexities of constructing them within the throwntogether context of the contemporary city. The conclusion of the thesis describes the process of imagining community as a reflexive fantasy, that is, as a product of both the critical and fascinated consciousness (Ricoeur, 1994). It suggests that the fascinated consciousness imbues experiences with hope and desire, which the reflexive imagining can turn to disappointment and shame as it critically reflects on the reality of those fascinated projections. At the same time, the reflexive imagination also searches the practices of others for affirmation of those projections, effectively seeking to prove the reality of the fantasy of the imagined community.

Pixel value to electron density conversion for a Megavoltage Cone Beam CT System

Introduction: The motivation for developing megavoltage (and kilovoltage) cone beam CT (MV CBCT) capabilities in the radiotherapy treatment room was primarily based on the need to improve patient set-up accuracy. There has recently been an interest in using the cone beam CT data for treatment planning. Accurate treatment planning, however, requires knowledge of the electron density of the tissues receiving radiation in order to calculate dose distributions. This is obtained from CT, utilising a conversion between CT number and electron density of various tissues. The use of MV CBCT has particular advantages compared to treatment planning with kilovoltage CT in the presence of high atomic number materials and requires the conversion of pixel values from the image sets to electron density. Therefore, a study was undertaken to characterise the pixel value to electron density relationship for the Siemens MV CBCT system, MVision, and determine the effect, if any, of differing the number of monitor units used for acquisition. If a significant difference with number of monitor units was seen then pixel value to ED conversions may be required for each of the clinical settings. The calibration of the MV CT images for electron density offers the possibility for a daily recalculation of the dose distribution and the introduction of new adaptive radiotherapy treatment strategies. Methods: A Gammex Electron Density CT Phantom was imaged with the MVCB CT system. The pixel value for each of the sixteen inserts, which ranged from 0.292 to 1.707 relative electron density to the background solid water, was determined by taking the mean value from within a region of interest centred on the insert, over 5 slices within the centre of the phantom. These results were averaged and plotted against the relative electron densities of each insert with a linear least squares fit was preformed. This procedure was performed for images acquired with 5, 8, 15 and 60 monitor units. Results: The linear relationship between MVCT pixel value and ED was demonstrated for all monitor unit settings and over a range of electron densities. The number of monitor units utilised was found to have no significant impact on this relationship. Discussion: It was found that the number of MU utilised does not significantly alter the pixel value obtained for different ED materials. However, to ensure the most accurate and reproducible MV to ED calibration, one MU setting should be chosen and used routinely. To ensure accuracy for the clinical situation this MU setting should correspond to that which is used clinically. If more than one MU setting is used clinically then an average of the CT values acquired with different numbers of MU could be utilized without loss in accuracy. Conclusions: No significant differences have been shown between the pixel value to ED conversion for the Siemens MV CT cone beam unit with change in monitor units. Thus as single conversion curve could be utilised for MV CT treatment planning. To fully utilise MV CT imaging for radiotherapy treatment planning further work will be undertaken to ensure all corrections have been made and dose calculations verified. These dose calculations may be either for treatment planning purposes or for reconstructing the delivered dose distribution from transit dosimetry measurements made using electronic portal imaging devices. This will potentially allow the cumulative dose distribution to be determined through the patient’s multi-fraction treatment and adaptive treatment strategies developed to optimize the tumour response.

Unnatural selection : curricular conversations in TIP 1962–2012

Our task is to consider the evolving perspectives around curriculum documented in the Theory Into Practice (TIP) corpus to date. The 50 years in question, 1962–2012, account for approximately half the history of mass institutionalized schooling. Over this time, the upper age of compulsory schooling has crept up, stretching the school curriculum's reach, purpose, and clientele. These years also span remarkable changes in the social fabric, challenging deep senses of the nature and shelf-life of knowledge, whose knowledge counts, what science can and cannot deliver, and the very purpose of education. The school curriculum is a key social site where these challenges have to be addressed in a very practical sense, through a design on the future implemented within the resources and politics of the present. The task's metaphor of ‘evolution’ may invoke a sense of gradual cumulative improvement, but equally connotes mutation, hybridization, extinction, survival of the fittest, and environmental pressures. Viewed in this way, curriculum theory and practice cannot be isolated and studied in laboratory conditions—there is nothing natural, neutral, or self-evident about what knowledge gets selected into the curriculum. Rather, the process of selection unfolds as a series of messy, politically contaminated, lived experiments; thus curriculum studies require field work in dynamic open systems. We subscribe to Raymond Williams' approach to social change, which he argues is not absolute and abrupt, one set of ideas neatly replacing the other. For Williams, newly emergent ideas have to compete against the dominant mindset and residual ideas “still active in the cultural process'” (Williams, 1977, p. 122). This means ongoing debates. For these reasons, we join Schubert (1992) in advocating “continuous reconceptualising of the flow of experience” (p. 238) by both researchers and practitioners.

How long does it take for aquifer recharge or aquifer discharge processes to reach steady state?

Groundwater flow models are usually characterized as being either transient flow models or steady state flow models. Given that steady state groundwater flow conditions arise as a long time asymptotic limit of a particular transient response, it is natural for us to seek a finite estimate of the amount of time required for a particular transient flow problem to effectively reach steady state. Here, we introduce the concept of mean action time (MAT) to address a fundamental question: How long does it take for a groundwater recharge process or discharge processes to effectively reach steady state? This concept relies on identifying a cumulative distribution function, $F(t;x)$, which varies from $F(0;x)=0$ to $F(t;x) \to \infty$ as $t\to \infty$, thereby providing us with a measurement of the progress of the system towards steady state. The MAT corresponds to the mean of the associated probability density function $f(t;x) = \dfrac{dF}{dt}$, and we demonstrate that this framework provides useful analytical insight by explicitly showing how the MAT depends on the parameters in the model and the geometry of the problem. Additional theoretical results relating to the variance of $f(t;x)$, known as the variance of action time (VAT), are also presented. To test our theoretical predictions we include measurements from a laboratory–scale experiment describing flow through a homogeneous porous medium. The laboratory data confirms that the theoretical MAT predictions are in good agreement with measurements from the physical model.

Traffic density estimation of signalised arterials with stop line detector and probe data

This research aims to develop a reliable density estimation method for signalised arterials based on cumulative counts from upstream and downstream detectors. In order to overcome counting errors associated with urban arterials with mid-link sinks and sources, CUmulative plots and Probe Integration for Travel timE estimation (CUPRITE) is employed for density estimation. The method, by utilizing probe vehicles’ samples, reduces or cancels the counting inconsistencies when vehicles’ conservation is not satisfied within a section. The method is tested in a controlled environment, and the authors demonstrate the effectiveness of CUPRITE for density estimation in a signalised section, and discuss issues associated with the method.