Multi-step ahead direct prediction for the machine condition prognosis using regression trees and neuro-fuzzy systems

This paper presents an approach to predict the operating conditions of machine based on classification and regression trees (CART) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in association with direct prediction strategy for multi-step ahead prediction of time series techniques. In this study, the number of available observations and the number of predicted steps are initially determined by using false nearest neighbor method and auto mutual information technique, respectively. These values are subsequently utilized as inputs for prediction models to forecast the future values of the machines’ operating conditions. The performance of the proposed approach is then evaluated by using real trending data of low methane compressor. A comparative study of the predicted results obtained from CART and ANFIS models is also carried out to appraise the prediction capability of these models. The results show that the ANFIS prediction model can track the change in machine conditions and has the potential for using as a tool to machine fault prognosis.

Scaling of natural convection of an inclined flat plate : ramp cooling condition

A scaling analysis is performed for the transient boundary layer established adjacent to an inclined flat plate following a ramp cooling boundary condition. The imposed wall temperature decreases linearly up to a specific value over a specific time. It is revealed that if the ramp time is sufficiently large then the boundary layer reaches quasi-steady mode before the growth of the temperature is finished. However, if the ramp time is shorter then the steady state of the boundary layer may be reached after the growth of the temperature is completed. In this case, the ultimate steady state is the same as if the start up had been instantaneous. Note that the cold boundary layer adjacent to the plate is potentially unstable to Rayleigh-Bénard instability if the Rayleigh number exceeds a certain critical value for this cooling case. The onset of instability may set in at different stages of the boundary layer development. A proper identification of the time when the instability may set in is discussed. A numerical verification of the time for the onset of instability is presented in this study. Different flow regimes based on the stability of the boundary layer have also been discussed with numerical results.

Scaling of natural convection of an inclined flat plate : sudden cooling condition

The natural convection boundary layer adjacent to an inclined plate subject to sudden cooling boundary condition has been studied. It is found that the cold boundary layer adjacent to the plate is potentially unstable to Rayleigh-Bénard instability if the Rayleigh number exceeds a certain critical value. A scaling relation for the onset of instability of the boundary layer is achieved. The scaling relations have been developed by equating important terms of the governing equations based on the development of the boundary layer with time. The flow adjacent to the plate can be classified broadly into a conductive, a stable convective or an unstable convective regime determined by the Rayleigh number. Proper scales have been established to quantify the flow properties in each of these flow regimes. An appropriate identification of the time when the instability may set in is discussed. A numerical verification of the time for the onset of instability is also presented in this study. Different flow regimes based on the stability of the boundary layer have been discussed with numerical results.

Self-management of cancer treatment-related fatigue, nausea, vomiting and oral mucositis in Chinese cancer patients

Background: Treatment-related symptoms continue to place a significant burden on many cancer patients. Many side effects require patients to engage in a range of self-management actions. While some studies have explored self-management of treatment-related side effects in Western settings, very few studies were identified that described the self-management practices of cancer patients in China. Objective: The purposes of this study are to: (1) Investigate Chinese cancer patients. self-management behaviours in dealing with the fatigue, nausea/vomiting and oral mucositis that result from treatment, as well as the perceived effectiveness of these behaviours and related self-efficacy in performing them. (2) Explore factors influencing symptom self-management behaviours using the Cancer Symptom Self-management Framework based on Grey, Knafl and McCorkle.s (2006) self-management framework as a guide. Methods: This study was divided into two phases. Phase One consisted of the translation and modification of two instruments. The adaptation of these instruments to ensure applicability in the Chinese context was achieved through semi-structured interviews with six cancer patients, and content evaluation with eight experienced oncology nurses. A pilot study was conducted with nine cancer patients to trial the questionnaire set in the Chinese context. Based on the results of Phase One, Phase Two involved a cross-sectional survey of Chinese cancer patients undergoing cancer treatment using these instruments. A total of 277 chemotherapy patients with fatigue and/or nausea and vomiting, and 100 radiotherapy patients with oral mucositis were surveyed. Results: Participants in this study reported a variety of self-management behaviours to cope with fatigue, nausea, vomiting and oral mucositis. There are some consistencies as well disparities between strategies that are frequently used and those rated as effective. For fatigue self-management, participants were more likely to use strategies related to rest and sleep, while activity enhancement strategies were rated as achieving higher relief. For nausea and vomiting self-management, dietary modification and taking medication were most frequently used and rated as moderately effective. Psychological strategies were used by more than a third of participants and were rated as mildly effective. Some other infrequently used strategies, such as distraction by keeping busy and acupressure, were rated as moderately effective. For oral mucositis self-management, having soft, bland food and keeping the mouth moisturised were most frequently reported and they were rated as achieving moderate relief. A prescribed mouthwash was used by most but not all participants and brought moderate relief. In general, patients had low-to-moderate self-efficacy in nausea and vomiting self-management behaviours, moderate self-efficacy in fatigue self-management behaviours, and low-to-moderate self-efficacy in oral mucositis self-management behaviours. In terms of the factors influencing symptom self-management, different predictors were identified affecting engagement in fatigue, nausea/vomiting and oral mucositis self-management behaviours. Self-efficacy scores of different behaviours were consistently found to be a positive predictor of the relief level from corresponding behaviours, after controlling for other variables. Perceived social support from health care professionals was identified as an important factor influencing nausea and vomiting self-management behaviours, while neighbourhood support was important for fatigue self-management. In addition, symptom distress was identified as an important factor influencing nausea and vomiting self-management. Conclusion: Similar to reports from overseas, Chinese cancer patients initiate a wide range of self-management behaviours in response to treatment-related side effects. While some behaviours were reported to provide relief, many did not. Given these results, this study has a number of practical implications for health care professionals, particularly in relation to developing tailored self-management programs for fatigue, nausea, vomiting and oral mucositis. Additionally, this study suggests a number of theoretical implications and directions for future research. It is envisaged that these recommendations may pave the way for further studies understanding and promoting cancer symptom self-management in Chinese people affected by cancer.

Large-Eddy Simulation of physiological pulsatile non-newtonian flow in a channel with double constriction

Physiological pulsatile flow in a 3D model of arterial double stenosis, using the modified Power-law blood viscosity model, is investigated by applying Large Eddy Simulation (LES) technique. The computational domain has been chosen is a simple channel with biological type stenoses. The physiological pulsation is generated at the inlet of the model using the first four harmonics of the Fourier series of the physiological pressure pulse. In LES, a top-hat spatial grid-filter is applied to the Navier-Stokes equations of motion to separate the large scale flows from the subgrid scale (SGS). The large scale flows are then resolved fully while the unresolved SGS motions are modelled using the localized dynamic model. The flow Reynolds numbers which are typical of those found in human large artery are chosen in the present work. Transitions to turbulent of the pulsatile non-Newtonian along with Newtonian flow in the post stenosis are examined through the mean velocity, wall shear stress, mean streamlines as well as turbulent kinetic energy and explained physically along with the relevant medical concerns.

Randomised controlled trial of a supervised exercise rehabilitation program for colorectal cancer survivors immediately after chemotherapy: study protocol

Background Colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnosis and the ensuing treatments can have a substantial impact on the physical and psychological health of survivors. As the number of CRC survivors increases, so too does the need to develop viable rehabilitation programs to help these survivors return to good health as quickly as possible. Exercise has the potential to address many of the adverse effects of CRC treatment; however, to date, the role of exercise in the rehabilitation of cancer patients immediately after the completion of treatment has received limited research attention. This paper presents the design of a randomised controlled trial which will evaluate the feasibility and efficacy of a 12-week supervised aerobic exercise program (ImPACT Program) on the physiological and psychological markers of rehabilitation, in addition to biomarkers of standard haematological outcomes and the IGF axis. Methods/Design Forty CRC patients will be recruited through oncology clinics and randomised to an exercise group or a usual care control group. Baseline assessment will take place within 4 weeks of the patient completing adjuvant chemotherapy treatment. The exercise program for patients in the intervention group will commence a week after the baseline assessment. The program consists of three supervised moderate-intensity aerobic exercise sessions per week for 12 weeks. All participants will have assessments at baseline (0 wks), mid-intervention (6 wks), post-intervention (12 wks) and at a 6-week follow-up (18 wks). Outcome measures include cardio-respiratory fitness, biomarkers associated with health and survival, and indices of fatigue and quality of life. Process measures are participants' acceptability of, adherence to, and compliance with the exercise program, in addition to the safety of the program. Discussion The results of this study will provide valuable insight into the role of supervised exercise in improving life after CRC. Additionally, process analyses will inform the feasibility of implementing the program in a population of CRC patients immediately after completing chemotherapy.

An examination of monotony and hypovigilance, independent of fatigue : relevance to road safety

Driving is a vigilance task, requiring sustained attention to maintain performance and avoid crashes. Hypovigilance (i.e., marked reduction in vigilance) while driving manifests as poor driving performance and is commonly attributed to fatigue (Dinges, 1995). However, poor driving performance has been found to be more frequent when driving in monotonous road environments, suggesting that monotony plays a role in generating hypovigilance (Thiffault & Bergeron, 2003b). Research to date has tended to conceptualise monotony as a uni-dimensional task characteristic, typically used over a prolonged period of time to facilitate other factors under investigation, most notably fatigue. However, more often than not, more than one exogenous factor relating to the task or operating environment is manipulated to vary or generate monotony (Mascord & Heath, 1992). Here we aimed to explore whether monotony is a multi-dimensional construct that is determined by characteristics of both the task proper and the task environment. The general assumption that monotony is a task characteristic used solely to elicit hypovigilance or poor performance related to fatigue appears to have led to there being little rigorous investigation into the exact nature of the relationship. While the two concepts are undoubtedly linked, the independent effect of monotony on hypovigilance remains largely ignored. Notwithstanding, there is evidence that monotony effects can emerge very early in vigilance tasks and are not necessarily accompanied by fatigue (see Meuter, Rakotonirainy, Johns, & Wagner, 2005). This phenomenon raises a largely untested, empirical question explored in two studies: Can hypovigilance emerge as a consequence of task and/or environmental monotony, independent of time on task and fatigue? In Study 1, using a short computerised vigilance task requiring responses to be withheld to infrequent targets, we explored the differential impacts of stimuli and task demand manipulations on the development of a monotonous context and the associated effects on vigilance performance (as indexed by respone errors and response times), independent of fatigue and time on task. The role of individual differences (sensation seeking, extroversion and cognitive failures) in moderating monotony effects was also considered. The results indicate that monotony affects sustained attention, with hypovigilance and associated performance worse in monotonous than in non-monotonous contexts. Critically, performance decrements emerged early in the task (within 4.3 minutes) and remained consistent over the course of the experiment (21.5 minutes), suggesting that monotony effects can operate independent of time on task and fatigue. A combination of low task demands and low stimulus variability form a monotonous context characterised by hypovigilance and poor task performance. Variations to task demand and stimulus variability were also found to independently affect performance, suggesting that monotony is a multi-dimensional construct relating to both task monotony (associated with the task itself) and environmental monotony (related to characteristics of the stimulus). Consequently, it can be concluded that monotony is multi-dimensional and is characterised by low variability in stimuli and/or task demands. The proposition that individual differences emerge under conditions of varying monotony with high sensation seekers and/or extroverts performing worse in monotonous contexts was only partially supported. Using a driving simulator, the findings of Study 1 were extended to a driving context to identify the behavioural and psychophysiological indices of monotony-related hypovigilance associated with variations to road design and road side scenery (Study 2). Supporting the proposition that monotony is a multi-dimensional construct, road design variability emerged as a key moderating characteristic of environmental monotony, resulting in poor driving performance indexed by decrements in steering wheel measures (mean lateral position). Sensation seeking also emerged as a moderating factor, where participants high in sensation seeking tendencies displayed worse driving behaviour in monotonous conditions. Importantly, impaired driving performance was observed within 8 minutes of commencing the driving task characterised by environmental monotony (low variability in road design) and was not accompanied by a decline in psychophysiological arousal. In addition, no subjective declines in alertness were reported. With fatigue effects associated with prolonged driving (van der Hulst, Meijman, & Rothengatter, 2001) and indexed by drowsiness, this pattern of results indicates that monotony can affect driver vigilance, independent of time on task and fatigue. Perceptual load theory (Lavie, 1995, 2005) and mindlessness theory (Robertson, Manly, Andrade, Baddley, & Yiend, 1997) provide useful theoretical frameworks for explaining and predicting monotony effects by positing that the low load (of task and/or stimuli) associated with a monotonous task results in spare attentional capacity which spills over involuntarily, resulting in the processing of task-irrelevant stimuli or task unrelated thoughts. That is, individuals – even when not fatigued - become easily distracted when performing a highly monotonous task, resulting in hypovigilance and impaired performance. The implications for road safety, including the likely effectiveness of fatigue countermeasures to mitigate monotony-related driver hypovigilance are discussed.