Did socio-ecological factors drive the spatiotemporal patterns of pandemic influenza A (H1N1)?

BACKGROUND Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) has a significant public health impact. This study aimed to examine the effect of socio-ecological factors on the transmission of H1N1 in Brisbane, Australia. METHODOLOGY We obtained data from Queensland Health on numbers of laboratory-confirmed daily H1N1 in Brisbane by statistical local areas (SLA) in 2009. Data on weather and socio-economic index were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to quantify the relationship between variation of H1N1 and independent factors and to determine its spatiotemporal patterns. RESULTS Our results show that average increase in weekly H1N1 cases were 45.04% (95% credible interval (CrI): 42.63-47.43%) and 23.20% (95% CrI: 16.10-32.67%), for a 1 °C decrease in average weekly maximum temperature at a lag of one week and a 10mm decrease in average weekly rainfall at a lag of one week, respectively. An interactive effect between temperature and rainfall on H1N1 incidence was found (changes: 0.71%; 95% CrI: 0.48-0.98%). The auto-regression term was significantly associated with H1N1 transmission (changes: 2.5%; 95% CrI: 1.39-3.72). No significant association between socio-economic indexes for areas (SEIFA) and H1N1 was observed at SLA level. CONCLUSIONS Our results demonstrate that average weekly temperature at lag of one week and rainfall at lag of one week were substantially associated with H1N1 incidence at a SLA level. The ecological factors seemed to have played an important role in H1N1 transmission cycles in Brisbane, Australia.

Performance analysis in team sports : advances from an ecological dynamics approach

Capacity to produce data for performance analysis in sports has been enhanced in the last decade with substantial technological advances. However, current performance analysis methods have been criticised for the lack of a viable theoretical framework to assist on the development of fundamental principles that regulate performance achievement. Our aim in this paper is to discuss ecological dynamics as an explanatory framework for improving analysis and understanding of competitive performance behaviours. We argue that integration of ideas from ecological dynamics into previous approaches to performance analysis advances current understanding of how sport performance emerges from continuous interactions between individual players and teams. Exemplar data from previous studies in association football are presented to illustrate this novel perspective on performance analysis. Limitations of current ecological dynamics research and challenges for future research are discussed in order to improve the meaningfulness of information presented to coaches and managers.

The Use of Ecological Design to Achieve Sustainable Development in Queensland, Australia

This series of technical papers arose out of the action by a private entrepreneur to initiate a process beyond mere regulatory compliance in order to achieve best environmental practice at proposed large new visitor gateways to Australia’s Great Barrier Reef. Because of the complexity of issues involved at such urbanized downstream sites, the range of topics covered is wide – though still only those considered at this juncture to be of management priority. Included on this platform is one introductory paper reviewing the history of environmental management in the field in Queensland, and three papers which seek to appreciate the main techniques by which government contributes to the solutions viz. through the national park, threatened species list, and environmental impact assessment. The history paper was designed to allow the present series to be considered in broad context as well as performance to date. The work emphasizes that much of the fertile land that must be sustained nowadays lies in the province of the private sector, and that the initiative to create any new cost-effective paradigm in ecologically-sustainable practices lies mostly in their hands. In all instances, this strategic approach to large-scale property planning is through ecological design – using field case studies around the immediate biophysical catchment of the development, with attendant focus on the associated legal catchment (the actual development site) and the social catchment (the effective land managers). The first of these has given rise to a document termed a Regional Landscape Strategy, its implementation planned in concert with an Environmental Impact Assessment of the site and with a Strategic Regional Initiative (still being tested in the field) for community engagement. The first document takes into account the aspirations of government as expressed in its broad-scale regional plans.

Agricultural production and the ecological question

Environmental degradation is a worldwide phenomenon. It is manifested in the clearing of forests, polluted waterways, soil erosion, the loss of biodiversity, the presence of chemicals in the ecosystem and a host of other concerns. Modern agricultural practices have been implicated in much of this degradation. This chapter explores the connections between the form of agricultural production undertaken in advanced nations – so called ‘productivist’ or ‘high-tech’ farming – and environmental degradation. It is argued, first, that the entrenchment of productivist agriculture has placed considerable, and continuing, pressures on the environment and, second, that while there are both new options for a more sustainable agriculture and new policies being proposed to tackle the existing problem, the underlying basis of productivist agriculture remains largely unchallenged. The prediction is that environmental degradation will continue unabated until more dramatic (and possibly less palatable) measures are taken to alter the behaviour of producers and the trajectory of farming and grazing industries throughout the world.

Ecological design with respect to the environment of large-scale marina developments in Queensland

Ecological principles have been employed to assist in the sustainability of a suite of 'gateway' marinas currently being developed in Queensland. Tasks included (a) location and fostering of core remnant native vegetation areas, (b) understanding the dynamic patterns of region behaviour using the ecological strategies employed by key flora and fauna species, (c) promoting those native wildlife species best characterising the region, and (d) allocating management actions along elongated buffer zones to the catchment headwaters (rather than only peripheral to the property). The design of infrastructure and its relationship to sustainable landscape development is lacking such a response int eh planning and detailing of new marinas. This paper distinguishes between the practice of landscape ecology and the design of ecological landscapes, offering examples of the principles of the latter in support of the concept of ecological landscape practice.

Ecological consequences of fragmentation and deforestation in an urban landscape : a case study

Landscape change is an ongoing process even within established urban landscapes. Yet, analyses of fragmentation and deforestation have focused primarily on the conversion of non-urban to urban landscapes in rural landscapes and ignored urban landscapes. To determine the ecological effects of continued urbanization in urban landscapes, tree-covered patches were mapped in the Gwynns Falls watershed (17158.6 ha) in Maryland for 1994 and 1999 to document fragmentation, deforestation, and reforestation. The watershed was divided into lower (urban core), middle (older suburbs), and upper (recent suburbs) subsections. Over the entire watershed a net of 264.5 of 4855.5 ha of tree-covered patches were converted to urban land use-125 new tree-covered patches were added through fragmentation, 4 were added through reforestation, 43 were lost through deforestation, and 7 were combined with an adjacent patch. In addition, 180 patches were reduced in size. In the urban core, deforestation continued with conversion to commercial land use. Because of the lack of vegetation, commercial land uses are problematic for both species conservation and derived ecosystem benefits. In the lower subsection, shape complexity increased for tree-covered patches less than 10 ha. Changes in shape resulted from canopy expansion, planted materials, and reforestation of vacant sites. In the middle and upper subsections, the shape index value for tree-covered patches decreased, indicating simplification. Density analyses of the subsections showed no change with respect to patch densities but pointed out the importance of small patches (≤5 ha) as "stepping stone" to link large patches (e. g., ≥100 ha). Using an urban forest effect model, we estimated, for the entire watershed, total carbon loss and pollution removal, from 1994 to 1999, to be 14,235,889.2 kg and 13,011.4 kg, respectively due to urban land-use conversions.

Bayesian imputation of non-chosen attribute values in revealed preference surveys

Obtaining attribute values of non-chosen alternatives in a revealed preference context is challenging because non-chosen alternative attributes are unobserved by choosers, chooser perceptions of attribute values may not reflect reality, existing methods for imputing these values suffer from shortcomings, and obtaining non-chosen attribute values is resource intensive. This paper presents a unique Bayesian (multiple) Imputation Multinomial Logit model that imputes unobserved travel times and distances of non-chosen travel modes based on random draws from the conditional posterior distribution of missing values. The calibrated Bayesian (multiple) Imputation Multinomial Logit model imputes non-chosen time and distance values that convincingly replicate observed choice behavior. Although network skims were used for calibration, more realistic data such as supplemental geographically referenced surveys or stated preference data may be preferred. The model is ideally suited for imputing variation in intrazonal non-chosen mode attributes and for assessing the marginal impacts of travel policies, programs, or prices within traffic analysis zones.

Social ecological influences on preferences for care provided at the end of life amongst Taiwanese city-dwelling adults

Social and cultural elements are an essential part of the contexts within which people understand their word and make end-of-life decisions. A developmental social ecological model was used in this thesis to provide a comprehensive framework for examining influences on end-of-life preferences. The findings support claims made by social ecologists that individual's health-related choices can be influenced by cultural, social contextual and environmental factors over the course of life. The results of this study have implications for health professionals and the practices they can adopt to enhance end-of-life care.

Test-retest reliability of four physical activity measures used in population surveys

Accurate monitoring of prevalence and trends in population levels of physical activity (PA) is a fundamental public health need. Test-retest reliability (repeatability) was assessed in population samples for four self-report PA measures: the Active Australia survey (AA, N=356), the short International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ, N=104), the physical activity items in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS, N=127) and in the Australian National Health Survey (NHS, N=122). Percent agreement and Kappa statistics were used to assess reliability of classification of activity status as 'active', 'insufficiently active' or 'sedentary'. Intraclass correlations (ICCs) were used to assess agreement on minutes of activity reported for each item of each survey and for total minutes. Percent agreement scores for activity status were very good on all four instruments, ranging from 60% for the NHS to 79% for the IPAQ. Corresponding Kappa statistics ranged from 0.40 (NHS) to 0.52 (AA). For individual items, ICCs were highest for walking (0.45 to 0.78) and vigorous activity (0.22 to 0.64) and lowest for the moderate questions (0.16 to 0.44). All four measures provide acceptable levels of test-retest reliability for assessing both activity status and sedentariness, and moderate reliability for assessing total minutes of activity.

Ecological risk analysis of transgenic plants

Public concern about the safety of many forms of industrial technology are known to be linked to a range of factors including a perceived lack of confidence in regulatory decision making.1 The use of transgenic plants in agriculture may be seen as an issue that could generate similar concern. Criticism has been made about the completeness of knowledge on the potential for aberrant behaviour of genetically manipulated organisms (GMO's) in release environments, and the adequacy of existing pre­‐release screening and assessment methodologies (Goldberg & Tjaden, 1990). Such comments are important because any perceived shortcomings in the pre-release assessment of GMO safety may lead to decreased public support of the technology -­‐and the industry itself...

Advances in population surveillance for physical activity and sedentary behavior : reliability and validity of time use surveys

Many countries conduct regular national time use surveys, some of which date back as far as the 1960s. Time use surveys potentially provide more detailed and accurate national estimates of the prevalence of sedentary and physical activity behavior than more traditional self-report surveillance systems. In this study, the authors determined the reliability and validity of time use surveys for assessing sedentary and physical activity behavior. In 2006 and 2007, participants (n = 134) were recruited from work sites in the Australian state of New South Wales. Participants completed a 2-day time use diary twice, 7 days apart, and wore an accelerometer. The 2 diaries were compared for test-retest reliability, and comparison with the accelerometer determined concurrent validity. Participants with similar activity patterns during the 2 diary periods showed reliability intraclass correlations of 0.74 and 0.73 for nonoccupational sedentary behavior and moderate/vigorous physical activity, respectively. Comparison of the diary with the accelerometer showed Spearman correlations of 0.57-0.59 and 0.45-0.69 for nonoccupational sedentary behavior and moderate/vigorous physical activity, respectively. Time use surveys appear to be more valid for population surveillance of nonoccupational sedentary behavior and health-enhancing physical activity than more traditional surveillance systems. National time use surveys could be used to retrospectively study nonoccupational sedentary and physical activity behavior over the past 5 decades.

Comparison of surveys used to measure physical activity

Objective To compare the level of agreement in results obtained from four physical activity (PA) measurement instruments that are in use in Australia and around the world. Methods 1,280 randomly selected participants answered two sets of PA questions by telephone. 428 answered the Active Australia (AA) and National Health Surveys, 427 answered the AA and CDC Behavioural Risk Factor Surveillance System surveys (BRFSS), and 425 answered the AA survey and the short International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ). Results Among the three pairs of survey items, the difference in mean total PA time was lowest when the AA and NHS items were asked (difference=24) (SE:17) minutes, compared with 144 (SE:21) mins for AA/BRFSS and 406 (SE:27) mins for AA/IPAQ). Correspondingly, prevalence estimates for 'sufficiently active' were similar for AA and NHS (56% and 55% respectively), but about 10% higher when BRFSS data were used, and about 26% higher when the IPAQ items were used, compared with estimates from the AA survey. Conclusions The findings clearly demonstrate that there are large differences in reported PA times and hence in prevalence estimates of 'sufficient activity' from these four measures. Implications It is important to consistently use the same survey for population monitoring purposes. As the AA survey has now been used three times in national surveys, its continued use for population surveys is recommended so that trend data ever a longer period of time can be established.

Test-retest reliability of physical activity measures used in Australian population surveys

PURPOSE Accurate monitoring of prevalence and trends in population levels of physical activity is fundamental to the planning of health promotion and disease-prevention strategies. Test-retest reliability (repeatability) was assessed for four self-report measures of physical activity commonly used in population surveys: the Active Australia survey (AA, N=356), the short form of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ-S, N=104), the physical activity items in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS, N=127) and the physical activity items in the Australian National Health Survey (NHS, N=122). METHODS Percent agreement and Kappa statistics were used to assess the reliability of classification of activity status (where ‘active’= 150 minutes of activity per week) and sedentariness (where ‘sedentary’ = reporting no physical activity). Intraclass correlations (ICCs) were used to assess agreement on minutes of activity reported for each item of each survey and on total minutes reported in each survey. RESULTS Percent agreement scores for both activity status and sedentariness were very good on all four instruments. Overall the percent agreement between repeated surveys was between 73% (NHS) and 87% (IPAQ) for the criterion measure of achieving 150 minutes per week, and between 77% (NHS) and 89% (IPAQ) for the criterion of being sedentary. Corresponding Kappa statistics ranged from 0.46 (NHS) to 0.61 (AA) for activity status and from 0.20 (BRFSS) to 0.52 (AA) for sedentariness. For the individual items ICCs were highest for walking (0.45 to 0.56) and vigorous activity (0.22 to 0.64) and lowest for the moderate questions (0.16 to 0.44). CONCLUSION All four measures provide acceptable levels of test-retest reliability for assessing both activity status and sedentariness, and moderate reliability for assessing total minutes of activity. Supported by the Australian Commonwealth Department of Health and Ageing.

Designing mixed species tree plantations for the tropics : balancing ecological attributes of species with landholder preferences in the Philippines

A mixed species reforestation program known as the Rainforestation Farming system was undertaken in the Philippines to develop forms of farm forestry more suitable for smallholders than the simple monocultural plantations commonly used then. In this study, we describe the subsequent changes in stand structure and floristic composition of these plantations in order to learn from the experience and develop improved prescriptions for reforestation systems likely to be attractive to smallholders. We investigated stands aged from 6 to 11 years old on three successive occasions over a 6 year period. We found the number of species originally present in the plots as trees >5 cm dbh decreased from an initial total of 76 species to 65 species at the end of study period. But, at the same time, some new species reached the size class threshold and were recruited into the canopy layer. There was a substantial decline in tree density from an estimated stocking of about 5000 trees per ha at the time of planting to 1380 trees per ha at the time of the first measurement; the density declined by a further 4.9% per year. Changes in composition and stand structure were indicated by a marked shift in the Importance Value Index of species. Over six years, shade-intolerant species became less important and the native shade-tolerant species (often Dipterocarps) increased in importance. Based on how the Rainforestation Farming plantations developed in these early years, we suggest that mixed-species plantations elsewhere in the humid tropics should be around 1000 trees per ha or less, that the proportion of fast growing (and hence early maturing) trees should be about 30–40% of this initial density and that any fruit tree component should only be planted on the plantation margin where more light and space are available for crowns to develop.

Evaluation of public hospital performance in Khanh Hoa Province : Vietnam in connection with patient and staff satisfaction surveys

This research aimed to develop a framework for performance evaluation of public hospitals in Vietnam that is culturally, socially, and politically appropriate. The research included both qualitative and quantitative methods and identified and validated novel instruments to measure patient satisfaction and job satisfaction of hospital staff and to determine a set of hospital indicators that reflect the quality of hospital performance. New models for understanding the determinants of patient and staff satisfaction were developed along with a new performance indicator framework for hospital performance. These instruments will now be applied to the evaluation of hospital services in Khanh Hoa Province, permitting longer term evaluation of their effectiveness in changing system wide performance and satisfaction.