139 resultados para Discrete Time Branching Processes


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Exploiting wind-energy is one possible way to extend flight duration for Unmanned Arial Vehicles. Wind-energy can also be used to minimise energy consumption for a planned path. In this paper, we consider uncertain time-varying wind fields and plan a path through them. A Gaussian distribution is used to determine uncertainty in the Time-varying wind fields. We use Markov Decision Process to plan a path based upon the uncertainty of Gaussian distribution. Simulation results that compare the direct line of flight between start and target point and our planned path for energy consumption and time of travel are presented. The result is a robust path using the most visited cell while sampling the Gaussian distribution of the wind field in each cell.

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The overall aim of this project was to contribute to existing knowledge regarding methods for measuring characteristics of airborne nanoparticles and controlling occupational exposure to airborne nanoparticles, and to gather data on nanoparticle emission and transport in various workplaces. The scope of this study involved investigating the characteristics and behaviour of particles arising from the operation of six nanotechnology processes, subdivided into nine processes for measurement purposes. It did not include the toxicological evaluation of the aerosol and therefore, no direct conclusion was made regarding the health effects of exposure to these particles. Our research included real-time measurement of sub, and supermicrometre particle number and mass concentration, count median diameter, and alveolar deposited surface area using condensation particle counters, an optical particle counter, DustTrak photometer, scanning mobility particle sizer, and nanoparticle surface area monitor, respectively. Off-line particle analysis included scanning and transmission electron microscopy, energy-dispersive x-ray spectrometry, and thermal optical analysis of elemental carbon. Sources of fibrous and non-fibrous particles were included.

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F-actin remodelling is essential for a wide variety of cell processes. It is important in exocytosis, where F-actin coats fusing exocytic granules. The purpose of these F-actin coats is unknown. They may be important in stabilizing the fused granules, they may play a contractile role and promote expulsion of granule content and finally may be important in endocytosis. To elucidate these functions of F-actin remodelling requires a reliable method to visualize F-actin dynamics in living cells. The recent development of Lifeact-EGFP transgenic animals offers such an opportunity. Here, we studied the characteristics of exocytosis in pancreatic acinar cells obtained from the Lifeact-EGFP transgenic mice. We show that the time-course of agonist-evoked exocytic events and the kinetics of each single exocytic event are the same for wild type and Lifeact-EGFP transgenic animals. We conclude that Lifeact-EGFP animals are a good model to study of exocytosis and reveal that F-actin coating is dependent on the de novo synthesis of F-actin and that development of actin polymerization occurs simultaneously in all regions of the granule. Our insights using the Lifeact-EGFP mice demonstrate that F-actin coating occurs after granule fusion and is a granule-wide event.

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What does a dance group in Benin that mixes contemporary and ethnic dancing have in common with Mongolian felt producers that want to enter the design market in Europe? These are both examples of learning processes in Creative Industries initiatives in developing countries. Following the concept of sustainable development, I argue that the challenge for developing countries in contemporary society is to meet the very real need of people for economic development and opportunities for income generation, while at the same time avoiding unintended and unwanted consequences of economic development and globalisation. The concept of the Creative Industries may be a way to promote a development that is sustainable and avoids social exclusion of groups-at-risk. In line with this, I argue that the Creative Industries sector could, in fact, link economic development and the continuation and evolution of local traditions and cultural heritage. A pressing question then is: how can education and learning contribute to creating a context in which talent can flourish? This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the research problem of this thesis: what elements are conducive for individual learning processes in creative development initiatives? In this, I argue that it is crucial to determine what ingredients and characteristics contribute to making these initiatives successful, that is, to meet their specific goals, in a developing context. This is explored through a staged analysis: an overview of quantitative data, an inventory and comparative case studies and, finally, the description and analysis of two in-depth case studies – felt design in Mongolia (Asia) and dance in Benin (Africa), in which I was an observer of the action phase of the local interventions. The analysis culminates in practice-related outcomes related to the operation of creative development initiatives, as well as the contribution to the academic debate on issues like the cultural gap between developed and developing countries, transformative learning and the connection of learning spaces.

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Time series regression models were used to examine the influence of environmental factors (soil water content and soil temperature) on the emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) from subtropical soils, by taking into account temporal lagged environmental factors, autoregressive processes, and seasonality for three horticultural crops in a subtropical region of Australia. Fluxes of N2O, soil water content, and soil temperature were determined simultaneously on a weekly basis over a 12-month period in South East Queensland. Annual N2O emissions for soils under mango, pineapple, and custard apple were 1590, 1156, and 2038 g N2O-N/ha, respectively, with most emissions attributed to nitrification. The N2O-N emitted from the pineapple and custard apple crops was equivalent to 0.26 and 2.22%, respectively, of the applied mineral N. The change in soil water content was the key variable for describing N2O emissions at the weekly time-scale, with soil temperature at a lag of 1 month having a significant influence on average N2O emissions (averaged) at the monthly time-scale across the three crops. After accounting for soil temperature and soil water content, both the weekly and monthly time series regression models exhibited significant autocorrelation at lags of 1–2 weeks and 1–2 months, and significant seasonality for weekly N2O emissions for mango crop and for monthly N2O emissions for mango and custard apple crops in this location over this time-frame. Time series regression models can explain a higher percentage of the temporal variation of N2O emission compared with simple regression models using soil temperature and soil water content as drivers. Taking into account seasonal variability and temporal persistence in N2O emissions associated with soil water content and soil temperature may lead to a reduction in the uncertainty surrounding estimates of N2O emissions based on limited sampling effort.

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Reliable communications is one of the major concerns in wireless sensor networks (WSNs). Multipath routing is an effective way to improve communication reliability in WSNs. However, most of existing multipath routing protocols for sensor networks are reactive and require dynamic route discovery. If there are many sensor nodes from a source to a destination, the route discovery process will create a long end-to-end transmission delay, which causes difficulties in some time-critical applications. To overcome this difficulty, the efficient route update and maintenance processes are proposed in this paper. It aims to limit the amount of routing overhead with two-tier routing architecture and introduce the combination of piggyback and trigger update to replace the periodic update process, which is the main source of unnecessary routing overhead. Simulations are carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed processes in improvement of total amount of routing overhead over existing popular routing protocols.

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Theoretical foundations of higher order spectral analysis are revisited to examine the use of time-varying bicoherence on non-stationary signals using a classical short-time Fourier approach. A methodology is developed to apply this to evoked EEG responses where a stimulus-locked time reference is available. Short-time windowed ensembles of the response at the same offset from the reference are considered as ergodic cyclostationary processes within a non-stationary random process. Bicoherence can be estimated reliably with known levels at which it is significantly different from zero and can be tracked as a function of offset from the stimulus. When this methodology is applied to multi-channel EEG, it is possible to obtain information about phase synchronization at different regions of the brain as the neural response develops. The methodology is applied to analyze evoked EEG response to flash visual stimulii to the left and right eye separately. The EEG electrode array is segmented based on bicoherence evolution with time using the mean absolute difference as a measure of dissimilarity. Segment maps confirm the importance of the occipital region in visual processing and demonstrate a link between the frontal and occipital regions during the response. Maps are constructed using bicoherence at bifrequencies that include the alpha band frequency of 8Hz as well as 4 and 20Hz. Differences are observed between responses from the left eye and the right eye, and also between subjects. The methodology shows potential as a neurological functional imaging technique that can be further developed for diagnosis and monitoring using scalp EEG which is less invasive and less expensive than magnetic resonance imaging.

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We found that scientists in Australia spent more than five centuries' worth of time preparing research-grant proposals for consideration by the largest funding scheme of 2012. Because just 20.5% of these applications were successful, the equivalent of some four centuries of effort returned no immediate benefit to researchers and wasted valuable research time. The system needs reforming and alternative funding processes should be investigated...

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Management of groundwater systems requires realistic conceptual hydrogeological models as a framework for numerical simulation modelling, but also for system understanding and communicating this to stakeholders and the broader community. To help overcome these challenges we developed GVS (Groundwater Visualisation System), a stand-alone desktop software package that uses interactive 3D visualisation and animation techniques. The goal was a user-friendly groundwater management tool that could support a range of existing real-world and pre-processed data, both surface and subsurface, including geology and various types of temporal hydrological information. GVS allows these data to be integrated into a single conceptual hydrogeological model. In addition, 3D geological models produced externally using other software packages, can readily be imported into GVS models, as can outputs of simulations (e.g. piezometric surfaces) produced by software such as MODFLOW or FEFLOW. Boreholes can be integrated, showing any down-hole data and properties, including screen information, intersected geology, water level data and water chemistry. Animation is used to display spatial and temporal changes, with time-series data such as rainfall, standing water levels and electrical conductivity, displaying dynamic processes. Time and space variations can be presented using a range of contouring and colour mapping techniques, in addition to interactive plots of time-series parameters. Other types of data, for example, demographics and cultural information, can also be readily incorporated. The GVS software can execute on a standard Windows or Linux-based PC with a minimum of 2 GB RAM, and the model output is easy and inexpensive to distribute, by download or via USB/DVD/CD. Example models are described here for three groundwater systems in Queensland, northeastern Australia: two unconfined alluvial groundwater systems with intensive irrigation, the Lockyer Valley and the upper Condamine Valley, and the Surat Basin, a large sedimentary basin of confined artesian aquifers. This latter example required more detail in the hydrostratigraphy, correlation of formations with drillholes and visualisation of simulation piezometric surfaces. Both alluvial system GVS models were developed during drought conditions to support government strategies to implement groundwater management. The Surat Basin model was industry sponsored research, for coal seam gas groundwater management and community information and consultation. The “virtual” groundwater systems in these 3D GVS models can be interactively interrogated by standard functions, plus production of 2D cross-sections, data selection from the 3D scene, rear end database and plot displays. A unique feature is that GVS allows investigation of time-series data across different display modes, both 2D and 3D. GVS has been used successfully as a tool to enhance community/stakeholder understanding and knowledge of groundwater systems and is of value for training and educational purposes. Projects completed confirm that GVS provides a powerful support to management and decision making, and as a tool for interpretation of groundwater system hydrological processes. A highly effective visualisation output is the production of short videos (e.g. 2–5 min) based on sequences of camera ‘fly-throughs’ and screen images. Further work involves developing support for multi-screen displays and touch-screen technologies, distributed rendering, gestural interaction systems. To highlight the visualisation and animation capability of the GVS software, links to related multimedia hosted online sites are included in the references.

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Invasion waves of cells play an important role in development, disease and repair. Standard discrete models of such processes typically involve simulating cell motility, cell proliferation and cell-to-cell crowding effects in a lattice-based framework. The continuum-limit description is often given by a reaction–diffusion equation that is related to the Fisher–Kolmogorov equation. One of the limitations of a standard lattice-based approach is that real cells move and proliferate in continuous space and are not restricted to a predefined lattice structure. We present a lattice-free model of cell motility and proliferation, with cell-to-cell crowding effects, and we use the model to replicate invasion wave-type behaviour. The continuum-limit description of the discrete model is a reaction–diffusion equation with a proliferation term that is different from lattice-based models. Comparing lattice based and lattice-free simulations indicates that both models lead to invasion fronts that are similar at the leading edge, where the cell density is low. Conversely, the two models make different predictions in the high density region of the domain, well behind the leading edge. We analyse the continuum-limit description of the lattice based and lattice-free models to show that both give rise to invasion wave type solutions that move with the same speed but have very different shapes. We explore the significance of these differences by calibrating the parameters in the standard Fisher–Kolmogorov equation using data from the lattice-free model. We conclude that estimating parameters using this kind of standard procedure can produce misleading results.

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Groundwater flow models are usually characterized as being either transient flow models or steady state flow models. Given that steady state groundwater flow conditions arise as a long time asymptotic limit of a particular transient response, it is natural for us to seek a finite estimate of the amount of time required for a particular transient flow problem to effectively reach steady state. Here, we introduce the concept of mean action time (MAT) to address a fundamental question: How long does it take for a groundwater recharge process or discharge processes to effectively reach steady state? This concept relies on identifying a cumulative distribution function, $F(t;x)$, which varies from $F(0;x)=0$ to $F(t;x) \to \infty$ as $t\to \infty$, thereby providing us with a measurement of the progress of the system towards steady state. The MAT corresponds to the mean of the associated probability density function $f(t;x) = \dfrac{dF}{dt}$, and we demonstrate that this framework provides useful analytical insight by explicitly showing how the MAT depends on the parameters in the model and the geometry of the problem. Additional theoretical results relating to the variance of $f(t;x)$, known as the variance of action time (VAT), are also presented. To test our theoretical predictions we include measurements from a laboratory–scale experiment describing flow through a homogeneous porous medium. The laboratory data confirms that the theoretical MAT predictions are in good agreement with measurements from the physical model.

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The importance of applying unsaturated soil mechanics to geotechnical engineering design has been well understood. However, the consumption of time and the necessity for a specific laboratory testing apparatus when measuring unsaturated soil properties have limited the application of unsaturated soil mechanics theories in practice. Although methods for predicting unsaturated soil properties have been developed, the verification of these methods for a wide range of soil types is required in order to increase the confidence of practicing engineers in using these methods. In this study, a new permeameter was developed to measure the hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated soils using the steady-state method and directly measured suction (negative pore-water pressure) values. The apparatus is instrumented with two tensiometers for the direct measurement of suction during the tests. The apparatus can be used to obtain the hydraulic conductivity function of sandy soil over a low suction range (0-10 kPa). Firstly, the repeatability of the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity measurement, using the new permeameter, was verified by conducting tests on two identical sandy soil specimens and obtaining similar results. The hydraulic conductivity functions of the two sandy soils were then measured during the drying and wetting processes of the soils. A significant hysteresis was observed when the hydraulic conductivity was plotted against the suction. However, the hysteresis effects were not apparent when the conductivity was plotted against the volumetric water content. Furthermore, the measured unsaturated hydraulic conductivity functions were compared with predictions using three different predictive methods that are widely incorporated into numerical software. The results suggest that these predictive methods are capable of capturing the measured behavior with reasonable agreement.

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Energy prices are highly volatile and often feature unexpected spikes. It is the aim of this paper to examine whether the occurrence of these extreme price events displays any regularities that can be captured using an econometric model. Here we treat these price events as point processes and apply Hawkes and Poisson autoregressive models to model the dynamics in the intensity of this process.We use load and meteorological information to model the time variation in the intensity of the process. The models are applied to data from the Australian wholesale electricity market, and a forecasting exercise illustrates both the usefulness of these models and their limitations when attempting to forecast the occurrence of extreme price events.

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Mathematical descriptions of birth–death–movement processes are often calibrated to measurements from cell biology experiments to quantify tissue growth rates. Here we describe and analyze a discrete model of a birth–death-movement process applied to a typical two–dimensional cell biology experiment. We present three different descriptions of the system: (i) a standard mean–field description which neglects correlation effects and clustering; (ii) a moment dynamics description which approximately incorporates correlation and clustering effects, and; (iii) averaged data from repeated discrete simulations which directly incorporates correlation and clustering effects. Comparing these three descriptions indicates that the mean–field and moment dynamics approaches are valid only for certain parameter regimes, and that both these descriptions fail to make accurate predictions of the system for sufficiently fast birth and death rates where the effects of spatial correlations and clustering are sufficiently strong. Without any method to distinguish between the parameter regimes where these three descriptions are valid, it is possible that either the mean–field or moment dynamics model could be calibrated to experimental data under inappropriate conditions, leading to errors in parameter estimation. In this work we demonstrate that a simple measurement of agent clustering and correlation, based on coordination number data, provides an indirect measure of agent correlation and clustering effects, and can therefore be used to make a distinction between the validity of the different descriptions of the birth–death–movement process.

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Sugarcane bagasse is an abundant and sustainable resource, generated as a by-product of sugarcane milling. The cellulosic material within bagasse can be broken down into glucose molecules and fermented to produce ethanol, making it a promising feedstock for biofuel production. Mild acid pretreatment hydrolyses the hemicellulosic component of biomass, thus allowing enzymes greater access to the cellulosic substrate during saccharification. A particle-scale mathematical model describing the mild acid pretreatment of sugarcane bagasse has been developed, using a volume averaged framework. Discrete population-balance equations are used to characterise the polymer degradation kinetics, and diffusive effects account for mass transport within the cell wall of the bagasse. As the fibrous material hydrolyses over time, variations in the porosity of the cell wall and the downstream effects on the reaction kinetics are accounted for using conservation of volume arguments. Non-dimensionalization of the model equations reduces the number of parameters in the system to a set of four dimensionless ratios that compare the timescales of different reaction and diffusion events. Theoretical yield curves are compared to macroscopic experimental observations from the literature and inferences are made as to constraints on these “unknown” parameters. These results enable connections to be made between experimental data and the underlying thermodynamics of acid pretreatment. Consequently, the results suggest that data-fitting techniques used to obtain kinetic parameters should be carefully applied, with prudent consideration given to the chemical and physiological processes being modeled.