122 resultados para Conditional-value-at-risk assessment


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On the basis of the growing interest on the impact of airborne particles on human exposure as well as the strong debate in Western countries on the emissions of waste incinerators, this work reviewed existing literature to: (i) show the emission factors of ultrafine particles (particles with a diameter less than 100 nm) of waste incinerators, and; (ii) assess the contribution of waste incinerators in terms of ultrafine particles to exposure and dose of people living in the surrounding areas of the plants in order to estimate eventual risks. The review identified only a limited number of studies measuring ultrafine particle emissions, and in general they report low particle number concentrations at the stack (the median value was equal to 5.5×103 part cm-3), in most cases higher than the outdoor background value. The lowest emissions were achieved by utilization of the bag-house filter which has an overall number-based filtration efficiency higher than 99%. Referring to reference case, the corresponding emission factor is equal to 9.1×1012 part min-1, that is lower than one single high-duty vehicle. Since the higher particle number concentrations found in the most contributing microenvironments to the exposure (indoor home, transportation, urban outdoor), the contribution of the waste incinerators to the daily dose can be considered as negligible.

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We aimed to identify genetic variants associated with cortical bone thickness (CBT) and bone mineral density (BMD) by performing two separate genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analyses for CBT in 3 cohorts comprising 5,878 European subjects and for BMD in 5 cohorts comprising 5,672 individuals. We then assessed selected single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for osteoporotic fracture in 2,023 cases and 3,740 controls. Association with CBT and forearm BMD was tested for ~2.5 million SNPs in each cohort separately, and results were meta-analyzed using fixed effect meta-analysis. We identified a missense SNP (Thr>Ile; rs2707466) located in the WNT16 gene (7q31), associated with CBT (effect size of -0.11 standard deviations [SD] per C allele, P = 6.2×10-9). This SNP, as well as another nonsynonymous SNP rs2908004 (Gly>Arg), also had genome-wide significant association with forearm BMD (-0.14 SD per C allele, P = 2.3×10-12, and -0.16 SD per G allele, P = 1.2×10-15, respectively). Four genome-wide significant SNPs arising from BMD meta-analysis were tested for association with forearm fracture. SNP rs7776725 in FAM3C, a gene adjacent to WNT16, was associated with a genome-wide significant increased risk of forearm fracture (OR = 1.33, P = 7.3×10-9), with genome-wide suggestive signals from the two missense variants in WNT16 (rs2908004: OR = 1.22, P = 4.9×10-6 and rs2707466: OR = 1.22, P = 7.2×10-6). We next generated a homozygous mouse with targeted disruption of Wnt16. Female Wnt16-/- mice had 27% (P<0.001) thinner cortical bones at the femur midshaft, and bone strength measures were reduced between 43%-61% (6.5×10-13<P<5.9×10-4) at both femur and tibia, compared with their wild-type littermates. Natural variation in humans and targeted disruption in mice demonstrate that WNT16 is an important determinant of CBT, BMD, bone strength, and risk of fracture. © 2012 Zheng et al.

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Background: Changing perspectives on the natural history of celiac disease (CD), new serology and genetic tests, and amended histological criteria for diagnosis cast doubt on past prevalence estimates for CD. We set out to establish a more accurate prevalence estimate for CD using a novel serogenetic approach.Methods: The human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DQ genotype was determined in 356 patients with 'biopsy-confirmed' CD, and in two age-stratified, randomly selected community cohorts of 1,390 women and 1,158 men. Sera were screened for CD-specific serology.Results: Only five 'biopsy-confirmed' patients with CD did not possess the susceptibility alleles HLA-DQ2.5, DQ8, or DQ2.2, and four of these were misdiagnoses. HLA-DQ2.5, DQ8, or DQ2.2 was present in 56% of all women and men in the community cohorts. Transglutaminase (TG)-2 IgA and composite TG2/deamidated gliadin peptide (DGP) IgA/IgG were abnormal in 4.6% and 5.6%, respectively, of the community women and 6.9% and 6.9%, respectively, of the community men, but in the screen-positive group, only 71% and 75%, respectively, of women and 65% and 63%, respectively, of men possessed HLA-DQ2.5, DQ8, or DQ2.2. Medical review was possible for 41% of seropositive women and 50% of seropositive men, and led to biopsy-confirmed CD in 10 women (0.7%) and 6 men (0.5%), but based on relative risk for HLA-DQ2.5, DQ8, or DQ2.2 in all TG2 IgA or TG2/DGP IgA/IgG screen-positive subjects, CD affected 1.3% or 1.9%, respectively, of females and 1.3% or 1.2%, respectively, of men. Serogenetic data from these community cohorts indicated that testing screen positives for HLA-DQ, or carrying out HLA-DQ and further serology, could have reduced unnecessary gastroscopies due to false-positive serology by at least 40% and by over 70%, respectively.Conclusions: Screening with TG2 IgA serology and requiring biopsy confirmation caused the community prevalence of CD to be substantially underestimated. Testing for HLA-DQ genes and confirmatory serology could reduce the numbers of unnecessary gastroscopies. © 2013 Anderson et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

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Objectives - It has long been suspected that susceptibility to ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is influenced by genes lying distant to the major histocompatibility complex. This study compares genetic models of AS to assess the most likely mode of inheritance, using recurrence risk ratios in relatives of affected subjects. Methods - Recurrence risk ratios in different degrees of relatives were determined using published data from studies specifically designed to address the question. The methods of Risch were used to determine the expected recurrence risk ratios in different degrees of relatives, assuming equal first degree relative recurrence risk between models. Goodness of fit was determined by χ2 comparison of the expected number of affected subjects with the observed number, given equal numbers of each type of relative studied. Results - The recurrence risks in different degrees of relatives were: monozygotic (MZ) twins 63% (17/27), first degree relatives 8.2% (441/5390), second degree relatives 1.0% (8/834), and third degree relatives 0.7% (7/997). Parent-child recurrence risk (7.9%, 37/466) was not significantly different from the sibling recurrence risk (8.2%, 404/4924), excluding a significant dominance genetic component to susceptibility. Poor fitting models included single gene, genetic heterogeneity, additive, two locus multiplicative, and one locus and residual polygenes (χ2 > 32 (two degrees of freedom), p < 10-6 for all models). The best fitting model studied was a five locus model with multiplicative interaction between loci (χ2 = 1.4 (two degrees of freedom), p = 0.5). Oligogenic multiplicative models were the best fitting over a range of population prevalences and first degree recurrence risk rates. Conclusions - This study suggests that of the genetic models tested, the most likely model operating in AS is an oligogenic model with predominantly multiplicative interaction between loci.

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Objective: To determine the influence of HLA-B27 homozygosity and HLA-DRB1 alleles in the susceptibility to, and severity of, ankylosing spondylitis in a Finnish population. Methods: 673 individuals from 261 families with ankylosing spondylitis were genotyped for HLA-DRB1 alleles and HLA-B27 heterozygosity/ homozygosity. The frequencies of HLA-B27 homozygotes in probands from these families were compared with the expected number of HLA-B27 homozygotes in controls under Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE). The effect of HLA-DRB1 alleles was assessed using a logistic regression procedure conditioned on HLA-B27 and case-control analysis. Results: HLA-B27 was detected in 93% of cases of ankylosing spondylitis. An overrepresentation of HLA-B27 homozygotes was noted in ankylosing spondylitis (11%) compared with the expected number of HLA-B27 homozygotes under HWE (4%) (odds ratio (OR) = 3.3 (95% confidence interval, 1.6 to 6.8), p = 0.002). HLA-B27 homozygosity was marginally associated with reduced BASDAI (HLA-B27 homozygotes, 4.5 (1.6); HLA-B27 heterozygotes, 5.4 (1.8) (mean (SD)), p = 0.05). Acute anterior uveitis (AAU) was present in significantly more HLA-B27 positive cases (50%) than HLA-B27 negative cases (16%) (OR = 5.4 (1.7 to 17), p<0.004). HLA-B27 positive cases had a lower average age of symptom onset (26.7 (8.0) years) compared with HLA-B27 negative cases (35.7 (11.2) years) (p<0.0001). Conclusions: HLA-627 homozygosity is associated with a moderately increased risk of ankylosing spondylitis compared with HLA-β27 heterozygosity. HLA-B27 positive cases had an earlier age of onset of ankylosing spondylitis than HLA-B27 negative cases and were more likely to develop AAU. HLA-DRB1 alleles may influence the age of symptom onset of ankylosing spondylitis.

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Objective. To localize the regions containing genes that determine susceptibility to ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Methods. One hundred five white British families with 121 affected sibling pairs with AS were recruited, largely from the Royal National Hospital for Rheumatic Diseases AS database. A genome-wide linkage screen was undertaken using 254 highly polymorphic microsatellite markers from the Medical Research Council (UK) (MRC) set. The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) region was studied more intensively using 5 microsatellites lying within the HLA class III region and HLA-DRB1 typing. The Analyze package was used for 2-point analysis, and GeneHunter for multipoint analysis. Results. When only the MRC set was considered, 11 markers in 7 regions achieved a P value of ≤0.01. The maximum logarithm of odds score obtained was 3.8 (P = 1.4 x 10-5) using marker D6S273, which lies in the HLA class III region. A further marker used in mapping of the MHC class III region achieved a LOD score of 8.1 (P = 1 x 10-9). Nine of 118 affected sibling pairs (7.6%) did not share parental haplotypes identical by descent across the MHC, suggesting that only 31% of the susceptibility to AS is coded by genes linked to the MHC. The maximum non-MHC LOD score obtained was 2.6 (P = 0.0003) for marker D16S422. Conclusion. The results of this study confirm the strong linkage of the MHC with AS, and provide suggestive evidence regarding the presence and location of non-MHC genes influencing susceptibility to the disease.

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This chapter provides an overview of the Japanese regulatory issues regarding pesticide use in rice paddies and an introduction of the new pesticide registration program. In addition, the experience of the environmental monitoring of pesticides and the modeling approaches used for the calculation of predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) in surface water and ground water systems adjacent to rice paddies in Japan are also discussed. Japan has been one of the major pesticide users in the world. Although having a long history in rice cultivation, the pesticide exposure assessment for paddy rice production received less attention compared with EU and US. Applications of up-to-date techniques and the development of realistic assessment procedures under specific climatic conditions as well as mitigation management practices for controlling pesticide contamination are important for an environmental-friendly rice production. Through the international cooperation and research exchanges, advances in pesticide risk assessment for rice paddies in Asian region and other rice-growing areas in the world would contribute to sustainable rice production. Transplanting of rice seedlings grows almost all rice paddies in Japan. The land preparation starts around April and June, and the harvest season lasts from August to October depending on the region and the rice varieties. Most of the rice paddies are treated with herbicides and other crop protection products, such as fungicides and insecticides that are applied during the crop season accordingly. Newly developed insecticides and fungicides are also applied during seedbed preparation.

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To identify new susceptibility loci for psoriasis, we undertOk a genome-wide asociation study of 594,224 SNPs in 2,622 individuals with psoriasis and 5,667 controls. We identified asociations at eight previously unreported genomic loci. Seven loci harbored genes with recognized iMune functions (IL28RA, REL, IFIH1, ERAP1, TRAF3IP2, NFKBIA and TYK2). These asociations were replicated in 9,079 European samples (six loci with a combined P < 5-10 -8 and two loci with a combined P < 5-10-7). We also report compeLing evidence for an interaction betwEn the HLA-C and ERAP1 loci (combined P = 6.95-10-6). ERAP1 plays an important role in MHC claS I peptide proceSing. ERAP1 variants only influenced psoriasis susceptibility in individuals carrying the HLA-C risk aLele. Our findings implicate pathways that integrate epidermal barrier dysfunction with iNate and adaptive iMune dysregulation in psoriasis pathogenesis.

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Background Genome-wide association studies have identified multiple genetic variants associated with prostate cancer risk which explain a substantial proportion of familial relative risk. These variants can be used to stratify individuals by their risk of prostate cancer. Methods We genotyped 25 prostate cancer susceptibility loci in 40,414 individuals and derived a polygenic risk score (PRS).We estimated empirical odds ratios (OR) for prostate cancer associated with different risk strata defined by PRS and derived agespecific absolute risks of developing prostate cancer by PRS stratum and family history. Results The prostate cancer risk for men in the top 1% of the PRS distribution was 30.6 (95% CI, 16.4-57.3) fold compared with men in the bottom 1%, and 4.2 (95% CI, 3.2-5.5) fold compared with the median risk. The absolute risk of prostate cancer by age of 85 years was 65.8% for a man with family history in the top 1% of the PRS distribution, compared with 3.7% for a man in the bottom 1%. The PRS was only weakly correlated with serum PSA level (correlation = 0.09). Conclusions Risk profiling can identify men at substantially increased or reduced risk of prostate cancer. The effect size, measured by OR per unit PRS, was higher in men at younger ages and in men with family history of prostate cancer. Incorporating additional newly identified loci into a PRS should improve the predictive value of risk profiles. Impact:We demonstrate that the risk profiling based on SNPs can identify men at substantially increased or reduced risk that could have useful implications for targeted prevention and screening programs.

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The aim of this study is to investigate the blood flow pattern in carotid bifurcation with a high degree of luminal stenosis, combining in vivo magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and computational fluid dynamics (CFD). A newly developed two-equation transitional model was employed to evaluate wall shear stress (WSS) distribution and pressure drop across the stenosis, which are closely related to plaque vulnerability. A patient with an 80% left carotid stenosis was imaged using high resolution MRI, from which a patient-specific geometry was reconstructed and flow boundary conditions were acquired for CFD simulation. A transitional model was implemented to investigate the flow velocity and WSS distribution in the patient-specific model. The peak time-averaged WSS value of approximately 73Pa was predicted by the transitional flow model, and the regions of high WSS occurred at the throat of the stenosis. High oscillatory shear index values up to 0.50 were present in a helical flow pattern from the outer wall of the internal carotid artery immediately after the throat. This study shows the potential suitability of a transitional turbulent flow model in capturing the flow phenomena in severely stenosed carotid arteries using patient-specific MRI data and provides the basis for further investigation of the links between haemodynamic variables and plaque vulnerability. It may be useful in the future for risk assessment of patients with carotid disease.

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In school environments, children are constantly exposed to mixtures of airborne substances, derived from a variety of sources, both in the classroom and in the school surroundings. It is important to evaluate the hazardous properties of these mixtures, in order to conduct risk assessments of their impact on chil¬dren’s health. Within this context, through the application of a Maximum Cumulative Ratio approach, this study aimed to explore whether health risks due to indoor air mixtures are driven by a single substance or are due to cumulative exposure to various substances. This methodology requires knowledge of the concentration of substances in the air mixture, together with a health related weighting factor (i.e. reference concentration or lowest concentration of interest), which is necessary to calculate the Hazard Index. Maximum cumulative ratio and Hazard Index values were then used to categorise the mixtures into four groups, based on their hazard potential and therefore, appropriate risk management strategies. Air samples were collected from classrooms in 25 primary schools in Brisbane, Australia. Analysis was conducted based on the measured concentration of these substances in about 300 air samples. The results showed that in 92% of the schools, indoor air mixtures belonged to the ‘low concern’ group and therefore, they did not require any further assessment. In the remaining schools, toxicity was mainly governed by a single substance, with a very small number of schools having a multiple substance mix which required a combined risk assessment. The proposed approach enables the identification of such schools and thus, aides in the efficient health risk management of pollution emissions and air quality in the school environment.

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Airborne particles, including both ultrafine and supermicrometric particles, contain various carcinogens. Exposure and risk-assessment studies regularly use particle mass concentration as dosimetry parameter, therefore neglecting the potential impact of ultrafine particles due to their negligible mass compared to supermicrometric particles. The main purpose of this study was the characterization of lung cancer risk due to exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and some heavy metals associated with particle inhalation by Italian non-smoking people. A risk-assessment scheme, modified from an existing risk model, was applied to estimate the cancer risk contribution from both ultrafine and supermicrometric particles. Exposure assessment was carried out on the basis of particle number distributions measured in 25 smoke-free microenvironments in Italy. The predicted lung cancer risk was then compared to the cancer incidence rate in Italy to assess the number of lung cancer cases attributed to airborne particle inhalation, which represents one of the main causes of lung cancer, apart from smoking. Ultrafine particles are associated with a much higher risk than supermicrometric particles, and the modified risk-assessment scheme provided a more accurate estimate than the conventional scheme. Great attention has to be paid to indoor microenvironments and, in particular, to cooking and eating times, which represent the major contributors to lung cancer incidence in the Italian population. The modified risk assessment scheme can serve as a tool for assessing environmental quality, as well as setting up exposure standards for particulate matter.

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The number of genetic factors associated with common human traits and disease is increasing rapidly, and the general public is utilizing affordable, direct-to-consumer genetic tests. The results of these tests are often in the public domain. A combination of factors has increased the potential for the indirect estimation of an individual's risk for a particular trait. Here we explain the basic principals underlying risk estimation which allowed us to test the ability to make an indirect risk estimation from genetic data by imputing Dr. James Watson's redacted apolipoprotein E gene (APOE) information. The principles underlying risk prediction from genetic data have been well known and applied for many decades, however, the recent increase in genomic knowledge, and advances in mathematical and statistical techniques and computational power, make it relatively easy to make an accurate but indirect estimation of risk. There is a current hazard for indirect risk estimation that is relevant not only to the subject but also to individuals related to the subject; this risk will likely increase as more detailed genomic data and better computational tools become available.

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The research project developed a quantitative approach to assess the risk to human health from heavy metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in urban stormwater based on traffic and land use factors. The research outcomes are expected to strengthen the scientifically robust management and reuse of urban stormwater. The innovative methodology developed can be applied to evaluate human health risk in relation to toxic chemical pollutants in urban stormwater runoff and for the development of effective risk mitigation strategies.

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While the majority of violent threats – defined as an expression of intent to do harm or act out violently against someone or something – do not progress to actual violence, a small proportion of threateners do go on to enact violence. Most researchers argue that violence risk assessments are inadequate for assessing threats of violence, which raises the question: how should a threat assessment (TA) be conducted? To begin to understand available frameworks for assessing threats, a systematic review of TA research literature was conducted. Most TA literature pertains to a specific domain (schools, public figure threats, workplaces) and target audience (clinicians, school personnel, law enforcement). TA guidelines are typically based on literature reviews with some based on empirical measures and others having no strong evidential basis. The most common concepts in TA are exploration of the threatener's mental health, the motivation for the threat and the presence of any plans. Rather than advocating for the development of a protocol for conducting TA, this article outlines the common areas of inquiry in assessing threats and highlights the limitations of current TA guidelines.