Mortality following hip arthroplasty—inappropriate use of National Joint Registry (NJR) data

Mortality following hip arthroplasty is affected by a large number of confounding variables each of which must be considered to enable valid interpretation. Relevant variables available from the 2011 NJR data set were included in the Cox model. Mortality rates in hip arthroplasty patients were lower than in the age-matched population across all hip types. Age at surgery, ASA grade, diagnosis, gender, provider type, hip type and lead surgeon grade all had a significant effect on mortality. Schemper's statistic showed that only 18.98% of the variation in mortality was explained by the variables available in the NJR data set. It is inappropriate to use NJR data to study an outcome affected by a multitude of confounding variables when these cannot be adequately accounted for in the available data set.

Calculate excess mortality during heatwaves using Hilbert-Huang transform algorithm

Background Heatwaves could cause the population excess death numbers to be ranged from tens to thousands within a couple of weeks in a local area. An excess mortality due to a special event (e.g., a heatwave or an epidemic outbreak) is estimated by subtracting the mortality figure under ‘normal’ conditions from the historical daily mortality records. The calculation of the excess mortality is a scientific challenge because of the stochastic temporal pattern of the daily mortality data which is characterised by (a) the long-term changing mean levels (i.e., non-stationarity); (b) the non-linear temperature-mortality association. The Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) algorithm is a novel method originally developed for analysing the non-linear and non-stationary time series data in the field of signal processing, however, it has not been applied in public health research. This paper aimed to demonstrate the applicability and strength of the HHT algorithm in analysing health data. Methods Special R functions were developed to implement the HHT algorithm to decompose the daily mortality time series into trend and non-trend components in terms of the underlying physical mechanism. The excess mortality is calculated directly from the resulting non-trend component series. Results The Brisbane (Queensland, Australia) and the Chicago (United States) daily mortality time series data were utilized for calculating the excess mortality associated with heatwaves. The HHT algorithm estimated 62 excess deaths related to the February 2004 Brisbane heatwave. To calculate the excess mortality associated with the July 1995 Chicago heatwave, the HHT algorithm needed to handle the mode mixing issue. The HHT algorithm estimated 510 excess deaths for the 1995 Chicago heatwave event. To exemplify potential applications, the HHT decomposition results were used as the input data for a subsequent regression analysis, using the Brisbane data, to investigate the association between excess mortality and different risk factors. Conclusions The HHT algorithm is a novel and powerful analytical tool in time series data analysis. It has a real potential to have a wide range of applications in public health research because of its ability to decompose a nonlinear and non-stationary time series into trend and non-trend components consistently and efficiently.

Discerning the timing and cause of historical mortality events in modern Porites from the Great Barrier Reef

The life history strategies of massive Porites corals make them a valuable resource not only as key providers of reef structure, but also as recorders of past environmental change. Yet recent documented evidence of an unprecedented increase in the frequency of mortality in Porites warrants investigation into the history of mortality and associated drivers. To achieve this, both an accurate chronology and an understanding of the life history strategies of Porites are necessary. Sixty-two individual Uranium–Thorium (U–Th) dates from 50 dead massive Porites colonies from the central inshore region of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) revealed the timing of mortality to have occurred predominantly over two main periods from 1989.2 ± 4.1 to 2001.4 ± 4.1, and from 2006.4 ± 1.8 to 2008.4 ± 2.2 A.D., with a small number of colonies dating earlier. Overall, the peak ages of mortality are significantly correlated with maximum sea-surface temperature anomalies. Despite potential sampling bias, the frequency of mortality increased dramatically post-1980. These observations are similar to the results reported for the Southern South China Sea. High resolution measurements of Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca obtained from a well preserved sample that died in 1994.6 ± 2.3 revealed that the time of death occurred at the peak of sea surface temperatures (SST) during the austral summer. In contrast, Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca analysis in two colonies dated to 2006.9 ± 3.0 and 2008.3 ± 2.0, suggest that both died after the austral winter. An increase in Sr/Ca ratios and the presence of low Mg-calcite cements (as determined by SEM and elemental ratio analysis) in one of the colonies was attributed to stressful conditions that may have persisted for some time prior to mortality. For both colonies, however, the timing of mortality coincides with the 4th and 6th largest flood events reported for the Burdekin River in the past 60 years, implying that factors associated with terrestrial runoff may have been responsible for mortality. Our results show that a combination of U–Th and elemental ratio geochemistry can potentially be used to precisely and accurately determine the timing and season of mortality in modern massive Porites corals. For reefs where long-term monitoring data are absent, the ability to reconstruct historical events in coral communities may prove useful to reef managers by providing some baseline knowledge on disturbance history and associated drivers.

Parent's socio-economic status and social support as risks for child mortality : consideration of health equity in The Gambia

A matched case-control study of mortality to children under age five was conducted to consider associations with parents' socio-economic status and social support in the Farafenni Demographic Surveillance Site (DSS). Cases and controls were selected from Farafenni DSS, matched on date of birth, and parents were interviewed about personal resources and social networks. Parents with the lowest personal socio-economic status and social support were identified. Multivariate multinomial regression was used to consider whether the children of these parents were at increased risk of either infant or 1-4 mortality, in separate models using either parents' characteristics. There was no benefit found for higher SES or better social support with respect to child mortality. Children of fathers who had the poorest social support had lower 1-4 mortality risk (OR=0.52, p=0.037). Given that socio-economic status was not associated with child mortality, it seems unlikely that the explanation for the link between father's social support and mortality is linked to resource availability. Explanations for the risk effect of father's social ties may lie in decision-making around health maintenance and health care for children.

In-hospital mortality rates after a cemented femoral component for displaced neck of femur fractures

Aim This prospective cohort study investigated whether the use of preoperative anticoagulants is an independent risk factor for the outcomes of surgical treatment of patients with a neck of femur fracture. Methods Data was obtained from a prospectively collected database. All patients admitted for a neck of femur fracture between Nov 2010 and Oct 2011 were included. This resulted in three hundred twenty-eight patients with 330 neck of femur fractures. Four groups were defined; patients preoperatively (i) on aspirin (n = 105); (ii) on clopidogrel (n = 28); (iii) on warfarin (n = 30), and; (iv) without any anticoagulation history (n = 167, the control group). The non-warfarin group included the aspirin group, clopidogrel group and the control group. Primary outcome was the in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes were the postoperative complications, return to theatre and length of stay. Results Thirteen in-hospital deaths were identified, 4 deaths in the aspirin group, 1 death in the clopidogrel group, 2 deaths in the warfarin group and 6 deaths in the control group. No significant difference in the mortality rates was found between the different groups. Also in the secondary outcomes, no significant difference was found between the four groups. A trend to a higher wound complication rate for the warfarin group was detected. Conclusion The use of clopidrogel or aspirin pre operatively is not an influence on short term patient outcome for patients with a neck of femur fracture. Surgical procedures should not be delayed to reverse their influence.

Assessment of the mortality displacement in temperature-related deaths in Brisbane, Australia

This thesis is a population-based ecological study designed to investigate the issue of mortality displacement (or "harvesting" effect) in the assessment of temperature-related deaths in Brisbane, Australia. It examines the temperature impacts on mortality, and assesses the harvesting effects on the temperature–related deaths. This study contributes to the knowledge base of understanding the temperature-mortality relationship and assists in formulating and evaluating public health intervention strategies within the context of climate change.

Prognostic validity of 3-Minute Nutrition Screening (3-MinNS) in predicting length of hospital stay, readmission, cost of hospitalisation and mortality : a cohort study

Background: It is important to identify patients who are at risk of malnutrition upon hospital admission as malnutrition results in poor outcomes such as longer length of hospital stay, readmission, hospitalisation cost and mortality. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic validity of 3-Minute Nutrition Screening (3-MinNS) in predicting hospital outcomes in patients admitted to an acute tertiary hospital through a list of diagnosis-related groups (DRG). Methods: In this study, 818 adult patients were screened for risk of malnutrition using 3-MinNS within 24 hours of admission. Mortality data was collected from the National Registry with other hospitalisation outcomes retrieved from electronic hospital records. The results were adjusted for age, gender and ethnicity, and matched for DRG. Results: Patients identified to be at risk of malnutrition (37%) using 3-MinNS had significant positive association with longer length of hospital stay (6.6 ± 7.1 days vs. 4.5 ± 5.5 days, p<0.001), higher hospitalisation cost (S$4540 ± 7190 vs. S$3630 ± 4961, p<0.001) and increased mortality rate at 1 year (27.8% vs. 3.9%), 2 years (33.8% vs. 7.2%) and 3 years (39.1% vs. 10.5%); p<0.001 for all. Conclusions: The 3-MinNS is able to predict clinical outcomes and can be used to screen newly admitted patients for nutrition risk so that appropriate nutrition assessment and early nutritional intervention can be initiated.

Unusually cold and dry winters increase mortality in Australia

Seasonal patterns in mortality have been recognised for decades, with a marked excess of deaths in winter, yet our understanding of the causes of this phenomenon is not yet complete. Research has shown that low and high temperatures are associated with increased mortality independently of season; however, the impact of unseasonal weather on mortality has been less studied. In this study, we aimed to determine if unseasonal patterns in weather were associated with unseasonal patterns in mortality. We obtained daily temperature, humidity and mortality data from 1988 to 2009 for five major Australian cities with a range of climates. We split the seasonal patterns in temperature, humidity and mortality into their stationary and non-stationary parts. A stationary seasonal pattern is consistent from year-to-year, and a non-stationary pattern varies from year-to-year. We used Poisson regression to investigate associations between unseasonal weather and an unusual number of deaths. We found that deaths rates in Australia were 20–30% higher in winter than summer. The seasonal pattern of mortality was non-stationary, with much larger peaks in some winters. Winters that were colder or drier than a typical winter had significantly increased death risks in most cities. Conversely summers that were warmer or more humid than average showed no increase in death risks. Better understanding the occurrence and cause of seasonal variations in mortality will help with disease prevention and save lives.

Provincial mortality in South Africa, 2000 - priority-setting for now and a benchmark for the future

Background. Cause-of-death statistics are an essential component of health information. Despite improvements, underregistration and misclassification of causes make it difficult to interpret the official death statistics. Objective. To estimate consistent cause-specific death rates for the year 2000 and to identify the leading causes of death and premature mortality in the provinces. Methods. Total number of deaths and population size were estimated using the Actuarial Society of South Africa ASSA2000 AIDS and demographic model. Cause-of-death profiles based on Statistics South Africa's 15% sample, adjusted for misclassification of deaths due to ill-defined causes and AIDS deaths due to indicator conditions, were applied to the total deaths by age and sex. Age-standardised rates and years of life lost were calculated using age weighting and discounting. Results. Life expectancy in KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga is about 10 years lower than that in the Western Cape, the province with the lowest mortality rate. HIV/AIDS is the leading cause of premature mortality for all provinces. Mortality due to pre-transitional causes, such as diarrhoea, is more pronounced in the poorer and more rural provinces. In contrast, non-communicable disease mortality is similar across all provinces, although the cause profiles differ. Injury mortality rates are particularly high in provinces with large metropolitan areas and in Mpumalanga. Conclusion. The quadruple burden experienced in all provinces requires a broad range of interventions, including improved access to health care; ensuring that basic needs such as those related to water and sanitation are met; disease and injury prevention; and promotion of a healthy lifestyle. High death rates as a result of HIV/AIDS highlight the urgent need to accelerate the implementation of the treatment and prevention plan. In addition, there is an urgent need to improve the cause-of-death data system to provide reliable cause-of-death statistics at health district level.