Statistics critical in securing our food supply

“World food security … is at its lowest in half a century,” wrote Julian Cribb FTSE, a wellknown consultant in science communication and founding editor of www.sciencealert. com.au in the lead article in the 2008 ATSE Focus magazine issue entitled “Food for the world: the nation’s challenge”. Food security continues to be a key national and international concern and it is pleasing to see this issue of Focus again exploring aspects of the topic with the aim of continuing to raise awareness of issues and influencing relevant policy decisions. Statistics (or statistical science, more broadly) has been critical to the information and decision-making value chain needed to optimise agriculture and the food supply chain. The key steps are most often addressed by multidisciplinary research groups including statisticians in collaboration with life and physical scientists, agri-industry personnel and other relevant stakeholders.

Rethinking the value of simulation methods in the information systems research field : a call for reconstructing contribution for a broader audience

The impact of simulation methods for social research in the Information Systems (IS) research field remains low. A concern is our field is inadequately leveraging the unique strengths of simulation methods. Although this low impact is frequently attributed to methodological complexity, we offer an alternative explanation – the poor construction of research value. We argue a more intuitive value construction, better connected to the knowledge base, will facilitate increased value and broader appreciation. Meta-analysis of studies published in IS journals over the last decade evidences the low impact. To facilitate value construction, we synthesize four common types of simulation research contribution: Analyzer, Tester, Descriptor, and Theorizer. To illustrate, we employ the proposed typology to describe how each type of value is structured in simulation research and connect each type to instances from IS literature, thereby making these value types and their construction visible and readily accessible to the general IS community.

Bio-hydrogen production from food waste through anaerobic fermentation

In order to protect our planet and ourselves from the adverse effects of excessive CO2 emissions and to prevent an imminent non-renewable fossil fuel shortage and energy crisis, there is a need to transform our current ‘fossil fuel dependent’ energy systems to new, clean, renewable energy sources. The world has recognized hydrogen as an energy carrier that complies with all the environmental quality and energy security, demands. This research aimed at producing hydrogen through anaerobic fermentation, using food waste as the substrate. Four food waste substrates were used: Rice, fish, vegetable and their mixture. Bio-hydrogen production was performed in lab scale reactors, using 250 mL serum bottles. The food waste was first mixed with the anaerobic sewage sludge and incubated at 37°C for 31 days (acclimatization). The anaerobic sewage sludge was then heat treated at 80°C for 15 min. The experiment was conducted at an initial pH of 5.5 and temperatures of 27, 35 and 55°C. The maximum cumulative hydrogen produced by rice, fish, vegetable and mixed food waste substrates were highest at 37°C (Rice =26.97±0.76 mL, fish = 89.70±1.25 mL, vegetable = 42.00±1.76 mL, mixed = 108.90±1.42 mL). A comparative study of acclimatized (the different food waste substrates were mixed with anaerobic sewage sludge and incubated at 37°C for 31days) and non-acclimatized food waste substrate (food waste that was not incubated with anaerobic sewage sludge) showed that acclimatized food waste substrate enhanced bio-hydrogen production by 90 - 100%.

Resource allocation in two species systems: Is it worth acknowledging species interactions?

It is becoming increasingly popular to consider species interactions when managing ecological foodwebs. Such an approach is useful in determining how management can affect multiple species, with either beneficial or detrimental consequences. Identifying such actions is particularly valuable in the context of conservation decision making as funding is severely limited. This paper outlines a new approach that simplifies the resource allocation problem in a two species system for a range of species interactions: independent, mutualism, predator-prey, and competitive exclusion. We assume that both species are endangered and we do not account for decisions over time. We find that optimal funding allocation is to the conservation of the species with the highest marginal gain in expected probability of survival and that, across all except mutualist interaction types, optimal conservation funding allocation differs between species. Loss in efficiency from ignoring species interactions was most severe in predator-prey systems. The funding problem we address, where an ecosystem includes multiple threatened species, will only become more commonplace as increasing numbers of species worldwide become threatened. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Reducing nitrous oxide emissions while supporting subtropical cereal production in Oxisols

This is the first study to investigate alternative fertilisation strategies to increase cereal production while reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the most common soil type in subtropical regions. The results of this research will contribute to define future farming practices to achieve global food security and mitigate climate change. The study established that introducing legumes in cropping systems is the most agronomically viable and environmentally sustainable fertilisation strategy. Importantly, this strategy can be widely adopted in subtropical regions since it is economically accessible, requires little know-how transfer and technology investment, and can be profitable in both low- and high-input cropping systems.

Determining reverse salient types and evolutionary dynamics of technology systems with performance disparities

Technological system evolution is marked by the uneven evolution of constituent sub-systems. Subsequently, system evolution is hampered by the resulting state of unevenness, or reverse salience, which results from the presence of the sub-system that delivers the lowest level of performance with respect to other sub-systems, namely, the reverse salient. In this paper, we develop absolute and proportional performance gap measures of reverse salience and, in turn, derive a typology of reverse salients that distinguishes alternative dynamics of change in the evolving system. We subsequently demonstrate the applicability of the measures and the typology through an illustrative empirical study of the PC (personal computer) technological system that functions as a gaming platform. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that patterns of temporal dynamics can be distinguished with the measurement of reverse salience, and that distinct paths of technological system evolution can be identified as different types of reverse salients emerge over time.

Cultural factors: Understanding culture to design organisation structures and systems to optimise safety

Safety culture is a term with numerous definitions in the literature. Many authors advocate a prescriptive approach to safety culture in which if an organisation has certain levels of externally prescribed systems and structures in place it has a “good safety culture”. Conversely, other researchers suggest an anthropological approach of exploring deep meanings and understandings present within an organisation’s workforce. In a recent published review, the authors presented an alternative view to safety culture, in which the anthropological aspects of safety culture interact with the structures and systems in place within an organisation to result in behavioural patterns. This can be viewed as a human factors approach to safety culture in which, through understanding the specific interactions between the culture of a workforce and external organisational elements, organisational structures and systems can be optimised in order to shape worker behaviour and improve safety. This paper presents findings from a recent investigation of safety culture in the Australian heavy vehicle (transport) industry. Selected results are discussed to explore how understanding culture can provide direction to the optimisation of organisational structures and systems to match worker culture and thus improve safety. Specifically the value placed on personal experience and stories, as well as on both time and money are discussed, and interventions that are suited to these aspects of the culture are discussed. These findings demonstrate the importance of shifting beyond mere prescriptive and interpretive approaches to safety culture and instead to focus on the interaction between cultural and contextual elements to optimise organisational structures and systems.

A stochastic exponential Euler scheme for simulation of stiff biochemical reaction systems

In order to simulate stiff biochemical reaction systems, an explicit exponential Euler scheme is derived for multidimensional, non-commutative stochastic differential equations with a semilinear drift term. The scheme is of strong order one half and A-stable in mean square. The combination with this and the projection method shows good performance in numerical experiments dealing with an alternative formulation of the chemical Langevin equation for a human ether a-go-go related gene ion channel mode

Real-time wide-area loading margin sensitivity (WALMS) in power systems

Loading margin sensitivity (LMS) has been widely used in applications in the realm of voltage stability assessment and control. Typically, LMS is derived based on system equilibrium equations near bifurcation and therefore requires full detailed system model and significant computation effort. Availability of phasor measurement units (PMUs) due to the recent development of wide-area monitoring system (WAMS) provides an alternative computation-friendly approach for calculating LMS. With such motivation, this work proposes measurement-based wide-area loading margin sensitivity (WALMS) in bulk power systems. The proposed sensitivity, with its simplicity, has great potential to be embedded in real-time applications. Moreover, the calculation of the WALMS is not limited to low voltage near bifurcation point. A case study on IEEE 39-bus system verifies the proposed sensitivity. Finally, a voltage control scenario demonstrates the potential application of the WALMS.

Fine-tuning of unmanned aerial surveillance for ecological systems

Much of our understanding and management of ecological processes requires knowledge of the distribution and abundance of species. Reliable abundance or density estimates are essential for managing both threatened and invasive populations, yet are often challenging to obtain. Recent and emerging technological advances, particularly in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), provide exciting opportunities to overcome these challenges in ecological surveillance. UAVs can provide automated, cost-effective surveillance and offer repeat surveys for pest incursions at an invasion front. They can capitalise on manoeuvrability and advanced imagery options to detect species that are cryptic due to behaviour, life-history or inaccessible habitat. UAVs may also cause less disturbance, in magnitude and duration, for sensitive fauna than other survey methods such as transect counting by humans or sniffer dogs. The surveillance approach depends upon the particular ecological context and the objective. For example, animal, plant and microbial target species differ in their movement, spread and observability. Lag-times may exist between a pest species presence at a site and its detectability, prompting a need for repeat surveys. Operationally, however, the frequency and coverage of UAV surveys may be limited by financial and other constraints, leading to errors in estimating species occurrence or density. We use simulation modelling to investigate how movement ecology should influence fine-scale decisions regarding ecological surveillance using UAVs. Movement and dispersal parameter choices allow contrasts between locally mobile but slow-dispersing populations, and species that are locally more static but invasive at the landscape scale. We find that low and slow UAV flights may offer the best monitoring strategy to predict local population densities in transects, but that the consequent reduction in overall area sampled may sacrifice the ability to reliably predict regional population density. Alternative flight plans may perform better, but this is also dependent on movement ecology and the magnitude of relative detection errors for different flight choices. Simulated investigations such as this will become increasingly useful to reveal how spatio-temporal extent and resolution of UAV monitoring should be adjusted to reduce observation errors and thus provide better population estimates, maximising the efficacy and efficiency of unmanned aerial surveys.

Improving food supply

Improving the availability, accessibility and affordability of healthy food equitably is fundamental to improving nutrition and health. While theoretical models abound, in real world complex systems rarely are there opportunities to address leverage points systematically to improve food supply. This presentation describes efforts over the last 30 years to do just that by remote Australian Aboriginal communities, where a single community store is usually the major dietary source. Areas addressed include store governance and infrastructure, wholesale supply, transport and pricing policies including cross-subsidization. However, while there have been dramatic improvements in the availability, quality and price of fruit, vegetables and most other healthy foods over this time, the proportion of communities' energy intake from energy-dense nutrient-poor foods and drinks has increased. One cause may be the disproportionate increase in supply of unhealthy choices in terms of variety and shelf-space, consistent with changes in the food supply in broader Australia. The impact of changing social and environmental factors, food preferences and price elasticity will also be explored briefly. Clearly much more needs to be done to reduce the high prevalence of diet-related chronic disease in some vulnerable groups. In particular, efforts to continually improve the availability and affordability of healthy food also need to address the predominance of unhealthy choices in the food supply.

Legume pastures can reduce N2O emissions intensity in subtropical cereal cropping systems

Alternative sources of N are required to bolster subtropical cereal production without increasing N2O emissions from these agro-ecosystems. The reintroduction of legumes in cereal cropping systems is a possible strategy to reduce synthetic N inputs but elevated N2O losses have sometimes been observed after the incorporation of legume residues. However, the magnitude of these losses is highly dependent on local conditions and very little data are available for subtropical regions. The aim of this study was to assess whether, under subtropical conditions, the N mineralised from legume residues can substantially decrease the synthetic N input required by the subsequent cereal crop and reduce overall N2O emissions during the cereal cropping phase. Using a fully automated measuring system, N2O emissions were monitored in a cereal crop (sorghum) following a legume pasture and compared to the same crop in rotation with a grass pasture. Each crop rotation included a nil and a fertilised treatment to assess the N availability of the residues. The incorporation of legumes provided enough readily available N to effectively support crop development but the low labile C left by these residues is likely to have limited denitrification and therefore N2O emissions. As a result, N2O emissions intensities (kg N2O-N yield−1 ha−1) were considerably lower in the legume histories than in the grass. Overall, these findings indicate that the C supplied by the crop residue can be more important than the soil NO3− content in stimulating denitrification and that introducing a legume pasture in a subtropical cereal cropping system is a sustainable practice from both environmental and agronomic perspectives.

Food aid and food production: A theoretical analysis

It has been claimed that food aid leads to permanent dependency as it depresses domestic food prices and thus farmers find it profitable to take land out of food production and into more lucrative activities. This paper develops two alternative scenarios under which the hypothesis about the damaging effect of food aid may not be true. Under the first scenario, it is argued that food production in developing countries is often low due to unfavourable trade policies and if food aid is tied to the removal of bias against the agricultural sector, food aid will not have any disincentive effect on food production. The second exercise argues that the revenue raised by the recipient government by selling aid could be used for R and D in agricultural production.

IMIA working group on health record banking - How complex systems can cooperate towards having individual's consolidated data

This workshop aims at discussing alternative approaches to resolving the problem of health information fragmentation, partially resulting from difficulties of health complex systems to semantically interact at the information level. In principle, we challenge the current paradigm of keeping medical records where they were created and discuss an alternative approach in which an individual's health data can be maintained by new entities whose sole responsibility is the sustainability of individual-centric health records. In particular, we will discuss the unique characteristics of the European health information landscape. This workshop is also a business meeting of the IMIA Working Group on Health Record Banking.