Beyond point forecasting : evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the biascorrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.

Electron transport across magnetic field in low-temperature plasmas : an alternative approach for obtaining evidence of Bohm mechanism

A comparative study involving both experimental and numerical investigations was made to resolve a long-standing problem of understanding electron conductivity mechanism across magnetic field in low-temperature plasmas. We have calculated the plasma parameters from experimentally obtained electric field distribution, and then made a 'back' comparison with the distributions of electron energy and plasma density obtained in the experiment. This approach significantly reduces an influence of the assumption about particular phenomenology of the electron conductivity in plasma. The results of the experiment and calculations made by this technique have showed that the classical conductivity is not capable of providing realistic total current and electron energy, whereas the phenomenological anomalous Bohm mobility has demonstrated a very good agreement with the experiment. These results provide an evidence in favor of the Bohm conductivity, thus making it possible to clarify this pressing long-living question about the main driving mechanism responsible for the electron transport in low-temperature plasmas.

Harvesting as an alternative to burning for managing Spinifex Grasslands in Australia

Sustainable harvesting of grasslands can buffer large scale wildfires and the harvested biomass can be used for various products. Spinifex (Triodia spp.) grasslands cover ≈30% of the Australian continent and form the dominant vegetation in the driest regions. Harvesting near settlements is being considered as a means to reduce the occurrence and intensity of wildfires and to source biomaterials for sustainable desert living. However, it is unknown if harvesting spinifex grasslands can be done sustainably without loss of biodiversity and ecosystem function. We examined the trajectory of plant regeneration of burned and harvested spinifex grassland, floristic diversity, nutrient concentrations in soil and plants, and seed germination in controlled ex situ conditions. After two to three years of burning or harvesting in dry or wet seasons, species richness, diversity, and concentrations of most nutrients in soil and leaves of regenerating spinifex plants were overall similar in burned and harvested plots. Germination tests showed that 20% of species require fire-related cues to trigger germination, indicating that fire is essential for the regeneration of some species. Further experimentation should evaluate these findings and explore if harvesting and intervention, such as sowing of fire-cued seeds, allow sustainable, localised harvesting of spinifex grasslands.

Willingness-to-pay for infrastructure investments for alternative fuel vehicles

This study investigates potential demand for infrastructure investment for alternative fuel vehicles by applying stated preference methods to a Japanese sample. The potential demand is estimated on the basis of how much people are willing to pay for alternative fuel vehicles under various refueling scenarios. Using the estimated parameters, the economic efficiency of establishing battery-exchange stations for electric vehicles is examined. The results indicate that infrastructural development of battery-exchange stations can be efficient when electric vehicle sales exceed 5.63% of all new vehicle sales. Further, we find a complementary relationship between the cruising ranges of alternative fuel vehicles and the infrastructure established.

An alternative theory of legacy information systems

Organisational dependence upon IT continues to grow yet experiences of satisfaction vary widely. Problematic, aged IT is often cited as being a fundamental problem in this respect and this is commonly termed legacy information systems. However, in this paper the author offers an alternative, and arguably more comprehensive, theory of legacy information systems that accommodates multiple viewpoints and recognises its inherent dynamism. The paper suggests a theory of legacy information systems that comprises of the concepts of temporal effects, interpretations and characteristics. It is argued that legacy information systems are constructed of many ‘legacies’ that are handed down continuously, forming an amorphous set of sociotechnical interdependencies and relationships.

Best of breed IT strategy: an alternative to enterprise resource planning systems

Abstract - Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) software has become the dominant strategic platform for supporting enterprise-wide business processes. However, single vendor ERP software systems have been criticised for not meeting specific organisation and industry requirements. An alternative approach ‘Best of Breed (BoB)’, integrates components of software from multiple standard package vendors, and in some cases custom components. The objective is to develop enterprise systems that are more closely aligned with the requirements of an organisation. Although this approach may not be common at present it is likely to grow in importance due to business needs and technology advances such as the componentisation of ERP software. A case study analysis of a BoB implementation at a global entertainment's company is used as a platform for the discussion of the issues associated with this strategy and a comparison is made with the single vendor ERP alternative. The analysis centres on the complexity of implementation, the differences in the levels of functionality and business fit and the maintenance requirements.

Psip1/Ledgf p52 binds methylated histone H3K36 and splicing factors and contributes to the regulation of alternative splicing

Increasing evidence suggests that chromatin modifications have important roles in modulating constitutive or alternative splicing. Here we demonstrate that the PWWP domain of the chromatin-associated protein Psip1/Ledgf can specifically recognize tri-methylated H3K36 and that, like this histone modification, the Psip1 short (p52) isoform is enriched at active genes. We show that the p52, but not the long (p75), isoform of Psip1 co-localizes and interacts with Srsf1 and other proteins involved in mRNA processing. The level of H3K36me3 associated Srsf1 is reduced in Psip1 mutant cells and alternative splicing of specific genes is affected. Moreover, we show altered Srsf1 distribution around the alternatively spliced exons of these genes in Psip1 null cells. We propose that Psip1/p52, through its binding to both chromatin and splicing factors, might act to modulate splicing.

An alternative approach to setting a mill

The conventional approach to setting a milling unit is essentially based on the desire to achieve a particular bagasse moisture content or fibre fill in each nip of the mill. This approach relies on the selection of the speed at which the mill will operate for the selected fibre rate. There is rarely any checking that the selected speed or the selected fibre fill is achieved and the same set of assumptions is generally carried over to use again in the next year. The conventional approach largely ignores the fact that the selection of mill settings actually determines the speed at which the mill will operate. Making an adjustment with the intent of changing the performance of the mill often also changes the speed of the mill as an unintended consequence. This paper presents an alternative approach to mill setting. The approach discussed makes use of mill feeding theory to define the relationship between fibre rate, mill speed and mill settings and uses that theory to provide an alternative means of determining the settings in some nips of the mill. Mill feeding theory shows that, as the feed work opening reduces, roll speed increases. The theory also shows that there is an optimal underfeed opening and Donnelly chute exit opening that will minimise roll speed and that the current South African guidelines appear to be well away from those optimal values.

The special branch : governing mentalities through alternative-site placement

"…one should try to locate power at the extreme points of its exercise, where it is always less legal in character." (Foucault, 1980, p.97) Studies of schooling practices as techniques deriving from a particular art of governing that Foucault (2003b) called ‘governmentality’ have shown how psychopathologising discourses work to construct particular student-subjects and legitimise various practices of exclusion (Gram, 2007b). Here I extend this work to consider the use of alternative-site placement as an intensification in response to governmentality being put ‘at risk’. Governing ‘at a distance’ conjures an illusion of individual freedom which relies on the production of subjects who ‘choose’ to make choices that are consistent with the aspirations of government. In this chapter, it is argued that the designation of a child as ‘disorderly’ legitimises the intrusion of state into the private domain of the family via the Trojan horse of early intervention. This is enabled by the psy-sciences, whose technologies and aims amount to the moral retraining of ‘improper’ future-citizens who, in choosing to choose otherwise, threaten to make visible invisible relations of power. Alternative-site placement in special schools running intensive behaviour modification programs allows for a ‘redoubled insistence’ (Ewald, 1992) of these norms and limits that a ‘disorderly’ child threatens to transgress.

Microalgae: An alternative source of biodiesel for the compression ignition (CI) engine

This thesis is a comprehensive study of microalgae biodiesel for the compression ignition engine. It examines microalgae growing conditions, the extraction process and physiochemical properties with a wide range of microalgae species. It also evaluates microalgae biodiesel with regards to engine performance and emission characteristics and explains the difficulties and potentiality of microalgae as a biodiesel. In doing so, an extensive analysis of different extraction methods and engine testing was conducted and a comprehensive study on microalgae biodiesel is presented.

Magnetic resonance imaging: An accurate, radiation-free, alternative to computed tomography for the primary imaging and three-dimensional reconstruction of the bony orbit

Purpose: To determine the extent to which the accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) based virtual 3-dimensional (3D) models of the intact orbit can approach that of the gold standard, computed tomography (CT) based models. The goal was to determine whether MRI is a viable alternative to CT scans in patients with isolated orbital fractures and penetrating eye injuries, pediatric patients, and patients requiring multiple scans in whom radiation exposure is ideally limited. Materials and Methods: Patients who presented with unilateral orbital fractures to the Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital from March 2011 to March 2012 were recruited to participate in this cross-sectional study. The primary predictor variable was the imaging technique (MRI vs CT). The outcome measurements were orbital volume (primary outcome) and geometric intraorbital surface deviations (secondary outcome)between the MRI- and CT-based 3D models. Results: Eleven subjects (9 male) were enrolled. The patients’ mean age was 30 years. On average, the MRI models underestimated the orbital volume of the CT models by 0.50 0.19 cm3 . The average intraorbital surface deviation between the MRI and CT models was 0.34 0.32 mm, with 78 2.7% of the surface within a tolerance of 0.5 mm. Conclusions: The volumetric differences of the MRI models are comparable to reported results from CT models. The intraorbital MRI surface deviations are smaller than the accepted tolerance for orbital surgical reconstructions. Therefore, the authors believe that MRI is an accurate radiation-free alternative to CT for the primary imaging and 3D reconstruction of the bony orbit. �