Development of a computer based 1D-2D dynamic flood model. Case study of the Pagsangaan river basin in Leyte, the Philippines

Floods are among the most devastating events that affect primarily tropical, archipelagic countries such as the Philippines. With the current predictions of climate change set to include rising sea levels, intensification of typhoon strength and a general increase in the mean annual precipitation throughout the Philippines, it has become paramount to prepare for the future so that the increased risk of floods on the country does not translate into more economic and human loss. Field work and data gathering was done within the framework of an internship at the former German Technical Cooperation (GTZ) in cooperation with the Local Government Unit of Ormoc City, Leyte, The Philippines, in order to develop a dynamic computer based flood model for the basin of the Pagsangaan River. To this end, different geo-spatial analysis tools such as PCRaster and ArcGIS, hydrological analysis packages and basic engineering techniques were assessed and implemented. The aim was to develop a dynamic flood model and use the development process to determine the required data, availability and impact on the results as case study for flood early warning systems in the Philippines. The hope is that such projects can help to reduce flood risk by including the results of worst case scenario analyses and current climate change predictions into city planning for municipal development, monitoring strategies and early warning systems. The project was developed using a 1D-2D coupled model in SOBEK (Deltares Hydrological modelling software package) and was also used as a case study to analyze and understand the influence of different factors such as land use, schematization, time step size and tidal variation on the flood characteristics. Several sources of relevant satellite data were compared, such as Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) from ASTER and SRTM data, as well as satellite rainfall data from the GIOVANNI server (NASA) and field gauge data. Different methods were used in the attempt to partially calibrate and validate the model to finally simulate and study two Climate Change scenarios based on scenario A1B predictions. It was observed that large areas currently considered not prone to floods will become low flood risk (0.1-1 m water depth). Furthermore, larger sections of the floodplains upstream of the Lilo- an’s Bridge will become moderate flood risk areas (1 - 2 m water depth). The flood hazard maps created for the development of the present project will be presented to the LGU and the model will be used to create a larger set of possible flood prone areas related to rainfall intensity by GTZ’s Local Disaster Risk Management Department and to study possible improvements to the current early warning system and monitoring of the basin section belonging to Ormoc City; recommendations about further enhancement of the geo-hydro-meteorological data to improve the model’s accuracy mainly on areas of interest will also be presented at the LGU.

Development of optical ray tracing model of a standard parabolic trough collector

Parabolic trough concentrator collector is the most matured, proven and widespread technology for the exploitation of the solar energy on a large scale for middle temperature applications. The assessment of the opportunities and the possibilities of the collector system are relied on its optical performance. A reliable Monte Carlo ray tracing model of a parabolic trough collector is developed by using Zemax software. The optical performance of an ideal collector depends on the solar spectral distribution and the sunshape, and the spectral selectivity of the associated components. Therefore, each step of the model, including the spectral distribution of the solar energy, trough reflectance, glazing anti-reflection coating and the absorber selective coating is explained and verified. Radiation flux distribution around the receiver, and the optical efficiency are two basic aspects of optical simulation are calculated using the model, and verified with widely accepted analytical profile and measured values respectively. Reasonably very good agreement is obtained. Further investigations are carried out to analyse the characteristics of radiation distribution around the receiver tube at different insolation, envelop conditions, and selective coating on the receiver; and the impact of scattered light from the receiver surface on the efficiency. However, the model has the capability to analyse the optical performance at variable sunshape, tracking error, collector imperfections including absorber misalignment with focal line and de-focal effect of the absorber, different rim angles, and geometric concentrations. The current optical model can play a significant role in understanding the optical aspects of a trough collector, and can be employed to extract useful information on the optical performance. In the long run, this optical model will pave the way for the construction of low cost standalone photovoltaic and thermal hybrid collector in Australia for small scale domestic hot water and electricity production.

Development of a Remote Sensing Core Curriculum submitted for the sessions on educational initiatives in Geoscience and Remote Sensing

A Remote Sensing Core Curriculum (RSCC) development project is currently underway. This project is being conducted under the auspices of the National Center for Geographic Information and Analysis (NCGIA). RSCC is an outgrowth of the NCGIA GIS Core Curriculum project. It grew out of discussions begun at NCGIA, Initiative 12 (I-12): 'Integration of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems'. This curriculum development project focuses on providing professors, teachers and instructors in undergraduate and graduate institutions with course materials from experts in specific subject matter for areas use in the class room.

Development of a dose assessment tool for the auditing of radiotherapy treatment dosimetric quality

The reporting and auditing of patient dose is an important component of radiotherapy quality assurance. The manual extraction of dose-volume metrics is time consuming and undesirable when auditing the dosimetric quality of a large cohort of patient plans. A dose assessment application was written to overcome this, allowing the calculation of various dose-volume metrics for large numbers of plans exported from treatment planning systems. This application expanded on the DICOM-handling functionality of the MCDTK software suite. The software extracts dose values in the volume of interest by using a ray casting point-in-polygon algorithm, where the polygons have been defined by the contours in the RTSTRUCT file...

STEM education for sustainable development : a sociotechnical analysis

It is debated that for sustainable STEM education and knowledge investment, human centered learning design approach is critical and important. Sustainability in this context is enduring maintenance of technological trajectories for productive economical and social interactions by demonstrating life critical scenarios through life critical system development and life experiences. Technology influences way of life and the learning and teaching process. Social software application development is more than learning of how to program a software application and extracting information from the Internet. Hence, our research challenge is, how do we attract learners to STEM social software application development? Our realisation processes begin with comparing Science and Technology education in developed (e.g., Australia) and developing (e.g., Sri Lanka) countries with distinction on final year undergraduates’ industry ready training programmes. Principal components analysis was performed to separate patterns of important factors. To measure behavioural intention of perceived usefulness and attitudes of the training, the measurement model was analysed to test its validity and reliability using partial least square (PLS) analysis of structural equation modelling (SEM). Our observation is that the relationship is more complex than we argue for. Our initial conclusions were that life critical system development and life experience trajectories as determinant factors while technological influences were unavoidable. A further investigation should involve correlations between human centered learning design approach and economical development in the long run.

The social shaping of packaged software selection

As organisations increasingly engage in the selection, purchase, and adoption of packaged software products, how these activities are carried out in practice becomes increasingly relevant for researchers and practitioners. Our focus in this paper is to propose a framework for understanding the packaged software selection process. The functionalist literature on this area of study suggests a number of generic recommendations, which are based on rational assumptions about the process and view the decision making that takes place as producing the “best technology solution.’” To explore this, we conducted a longitudinal, in-depth study of packaged software selection in a small organisation. For interpretation of the case, we draw upon the Social Construction of Technology, a theoretical framework arguing that technology is socially constituted and regarding the process of development as contradictory and uncertain. We offer a number of contributions. First, we further our understanding of packaged software selection with the critique that we offer of the functionalist literature, drawing insights from the emerging critical/constructivist literature and expanding our domain of interest to encompass the wider environment. Second, we weave this together with our experiences in the field, drawing on social constructivism for theoretical support, to develop a framework of packaged software selection that shows how various actors shape the process.

Development of fourth-grade students’ understanding of experimental and theoretical probability

Students explored variation and expectation in a probability activity at the end of the first year of a 3-year longitudinal study across grades 4-6. The activity involved experiments in tossing coins both manually and with simulation using the graphing software, TinkerPlots. Initial responses indicated that the students were aware of uncertainty, although an understanding of chance concepts appeared limited. Predicting outcomes of 10 tosses reflected an intuitive notion of equiprobability, with little awareness of variation. Understanding the relationship between experimental and theoretical probability did not emerge until multiple outcomes and representations were generated with the software.

Infrastructure, investment and development evaluation: A Complex Stakeholder Perception Mapping approach for improving local and regional economic development outcomes

Partial evaluation of infrastructure investments have resulted in expensive mistakes, unsatisfactory outcomes and increased uncertainties for too many stakeholders, communities and economies in both developing and developed nations. "Complex Stakeholder Perception Mapping" (CSPM), is a novel approach that can address existing limitations by inclusively framing, capturing and mapping the spectrum of insights and perceptions using extended Geographic Information Systems. Maps generated in CSPM offer presentations of flexibly combined, complex perceptions of stakeholders on multiple aspects of development. CSPM extends the applications of GIS software in non-spatial mapping and of Multi-Criteria Analysis with a multidimensional evaluation platform and augments decision science capabilities in addressing complexities. Application of CSPM can improve local and regional economic gains from infrastructure projects and aid any multi-objective and multi-stakeholder decision situations.

Mathematical modeling for improved greenhouse gas balances, agro-ecosystems, and policy development: Lessons from the Australian experience

If the land sector is to make significant contributions to mitigating anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in coming decades, it must do so while concurrently expanding production of food and fiber. In our view, mathematical modeling will be required to provide scientific guidance to meet this challenge. In order to be useful in GHG mitigation policy measures, models must simultaneously meet scientific, software engineering, and human capacity requirements. They can be used to understand GHG fluxes, to evaluate proposed GHG mitigation actions, and to predict and monitor the effects of specific actions; the latter applications require a change in mindset that has parallels with the shift from research modeling to decision support. We compare and contrast 6 agro-ecosystem models (FullCAM, DayCent, DNDC, APSIM, WNMM, and AgMod), chosen because they are used in Australian agriculture and forestry. Underlying structural similarities in the representations of carbon flows though plants and soils in these models are complemented by a diverse range of emphases and approaches to the subprocesses within the agro-ecosystem. None of these agro-ecosystem models handles all land sector GHG fluxes, and considerable model-based uncertainty exists for soil C fluxes and enteric methane emissions. The models also show diverse approaches to the initialisation of model simulations, software implementation, distribution, licensing, and software quality assurance; each of these will differentially affect their usefulness for policy-driven GHG mitigation prediction and monitoring. Specific requirements imposed on the use of models by Australian mitigation policy settings are discussed, and areas for further scientific development of agro-ecosystem models for use in GHG mitigation policy are proposed.