5-year Chlamydia vaccination programme could reverse disease-related koala population decline: Predictions from a mathematical model using field data

BACKGROUND Many koala populations around Australia are in serious decline, with a substantial component of this decline in some Southeast Queensland populations attributed to the impact of Chlamydia. A Chlamydia vaccine for koalas is in development and has shown promise in early trials. This study contributes to implementation preparedness by simulating vaccination strategies designed to reverse population decline and by identifying which age and sex category it would be most effective to target. METHODS We used field data to inform the development and parameterisation of an individual-based stochastic simulation model of a koala population endemic with Chlamydia. The model took into account transmission, morbidity and mortality caused by Chlamydia infections. We calibrated the model to characteristics of typical Southeast Queensland koala populations. As there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of the vaccine in real-world settings, a variety of potential vaccine efficacies, half-lives and dosing schedules were simulated. RESULTS Assuming other threats remain constant, it is expected that current population declines could be reversed in around 5-6 years if female koalas aged 1-2 years are targeted, average vaccine protective efficacy is 75%, and vaccine coverage is around 10% per year. At lower vaccine efficacies the immunological effects of boosting become important: at 45% vaccine efficacy population decline is predicted to reverse in 6 years under optimistic boosting assumptions but in 9 years under pessimistic boosting assumptions. Terminating a successful vaccination programme at 5 years would lead to a rise in Chlamydia prevalence towards pre-vaccination levels. CONCLUSION For a range of vaccine efficacy levels it is projected that population decline due to endemic Chlamydia can be reversed under realistic dosing schedules, potentially in just 5 years. However, a vaccination programme might need to continue indefinitely in order to maintain Chlamydia prevalence at a sufficiently low level for population growth to continue.

The first application of wastewater-based drug epidemiology in five South Korean cities

Illicit drug consumption in five cities in South Korea was estimated by analyzing 17 drug residues in untreated wastewater samples collected during the Christmas and New Year period of 2012-13. Only methamphetamine, amphetamine, and codeine were detected at concentrations of tens of nanograms per liter or even lower concentrations in more than 90% of the samples. Other illicit drug residues (including cocaine, methadone, and benzoylecgonine) that have been detected frequently in wastewater from other countries were not found in this study. Methamphetamine was found to be the most widely used illicit drug in South Korea, and the estimated average consumption rate was 22 mg d−1 (1000 people)−1. This rate is, for example, 2-5 times lower than the estimated average consumption rates in Hong Kong and other parts of China and 4-80 times lower than the estimated average consumption rates in cities in Western countries. It should be noted that the wastewater samples analyzed in this study were collected during a holiday season, when daily consumption of illicit drugs is often higher than on an average day. The methamphetamine usage rates were calculated for different cities in South Korea, and the usage rates in smaller cities was higher (2-4 times) than the average.

Cost effectiveness of bone density measurements

Objective. To assess the cost-effectiveness of bone density screening programmes for osteoporosis. Study design. Using published and locally available data regarding fracture rates and treatment costs, the overall costs per fracture prevented, cost per quality of life year (QALY) saved and cost per year of life gained were estimated for different bone density screening and osteoporosis treatment programmes. Main outcome measures. Cost per fracture prevented, cost per QALY saved, and cost per year of life gained. Results. In women over the age of 50 years, the costs per fracture prevented of treating all women with hormone replacement therapy, or treating only if osteoporosis is demonstrated on bone density screening were £32,594 or £23,867 respectively. For alendronate therapy for the same groups, the costs were £171,067 and £14,067 respectively. Once the background rate of treatment with alendronate reaches 18%, bone density screening becomes cost-saving. Costs estimates per QALY saved ranged from £1,514 to £39,076 for osteoporosis treatment with alendronate following bone density screening. Conclusions. For relatively expensive medications such as alendronate, treatment programmes with prior bone density screening are far more cost effective than those without, and in some circumstances become cost-saving. Costs per QALY of life saved and per year of life gained for osteoporosis treatment with prior bone density screening compare favourably with treatment of hypertension and hypercholesterolemia.

Acceptability of a rice-based oral rehydration solution in Port Moresby General Hospital's Children's Outpatient Department

The guardians of children brought to the Port Moresby General Hospital's Children's Outpatient Department with a chief complaint of diarrhoeal disease were questioned regarding their preference of glucose-based vs rice-based oral rehydration solution (ORS) in order to determine the acceptability of a rice-based ORS. Of the 93 guardians interviewed, greater than 60% preferred the glucose-based solution in its mixability, appearance and taste, and 65% initially reported that their children preferred the taste of the glucose solution. However, after a 30-minute trial, only 58% of children still preferred the glucose solution. In a country where diarrhoeal disease is a leading cause of child death and guardians are the primary health care providers, the acceptability of an ORS is critical to the morbidity and mortality of Papua New Guinea's children. Killing an estimated 2.9 million children annually, diarrheal disease is the second leading cause of child mortality worldwide. Diarrheal disease is also the second leading cause of child mortality in Papua New Guinea (PNG), killing an average 193 inpatient children per year over the period 1984-90. However, despite the high level of diarrhea-related mortality and the proven efficacy of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) in managing diarrhea-related dehydration, standardized ORT has been underutilized in PNG. The current glucose-based oral rehydration solution (ORS) does not reduce the frequency or volume of a child's diarrhea, the most immediate concern of caregivers during episodes of illness. Cereal-based ORS, made from cereals which are commonly available as food staples in most countries, better address the short-term concerns of caregivers while offering a superior nutritional profile. A sample of guardians of children brought to the Port Moresby General Hospital's Children's Outpatient Department complaining of child diarrhea were asked about their preferences on glucose-based versus rice-based ORS in order to determine the acceptability of a rice-based ORS. More than 60% of the 93 guardians interviewed preferred the glucose-based solution for its mixability, appearance, and taste. 65% initially reported that their children preferred the taste of the glucose solution. However, after a 30-minute trial, only 58% of children still preferred the glucose solution.

Latitudinal and seasonal effects on growth of the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus)

The growth of the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus) is understood in greater detail by quantifying the latitudinal effect. The latitudinal effect is the change in the species' growth rate during migration. Mark-recapture data (N = 1635, latitude 22.21 degrees S-34.00 degrees S) presents northerly movement of the eastern king prawn, with New South Wales prawns showing substantial average movement of 140 km (standard deviation: 176 km) north. A generalized von Bertalanffy growth model framework is used to incorporate the latitudinal effect together with the canonical seasonal effect. Applying this method to eastern king prawn mark-recapture data guarantees consistent estimates for the latitudinal and seasonal effects. For M. plebejus, it was found that growth rate peaks on 25 and 29 January for males and females, respectively; is at a minimum on 27 and 31 July, respectively; and that the shape parameter, k (per year), changes by -0.0236 and -0.0556 every 1 degree of latitude south increase for males and females, respectively.

Associations with low rates of postpartum glucose screening after gestational diabetes among Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australian women

OBJECTIVES To explore factors associated with postpartum glucose screening among women with Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM). METHODS A retrospective study using linked records from women with GDM who gave birth at Cairns Hospital in Far North Queensland, Australia, from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2010. RESULTS The rates of postpartum Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (OGTT) screening, while having increased significantly among both Indigenous* and non-Indigenous women from 2004 to 2010 (HR 1.15 per year, 95%CI 1.08-1.22, p<0.0001), remain low, particularly among Indigenous women (10% versus 27%, respectively at six months postpartum). Indigenous women in Cairns had a longer time to postpartum OGTT than Indigenous women in remote areas (HR 0.58, 0.38-0.71, p=0.01). Non-Indigenous women had a longer time to postpartum OGTT if they: were born in Australia (HR 0.76, 0.59-1.00, 0.05); were aged <25 years (HR 0.45, 0.23-0.89, p=0.02); had parity >5 (HR 0.33, 0.12-0.90, p=0.03); smoked (HR 0.48, 0.31-0.76, p=0.001); and did not breastfeed (HR 0.09, 0.01-0.64, p=0.02). CONCLUSIONS Postpartum diabetes screening rates following GDM in Far North Queensland are low, particularly among Indigenous women, with lower rates seen in the regional centre; and among non-Indigenous women with indicators of low socioeconomic status. IMPLICATIONS Strategies are urgently needed to improve postpartum diabetes screening after GDM that reach women most at risk.

The association of chronic kidney disease and dialysis treatment with foot ulceration and major amputation

Objective The objective of this study was to investigate the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage 4-5 and dialysis treatment on incidence of foot ulceration and major lower extremity amputation in comparison to CKD stage 3. Methods In this retrospective study, all individuals who visited our hospital between 2006 and 2012 because of CKD stages 3 to 5 or dialysis treatment were included. Medical records were reviewed for incidence of foot ulceration and major amputation. The time from CKD 3, CKD 4-5, and dialysis treatment until first foot ulceration and first major lower extremity amputation was calculated and analyzed by Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Diabetes mellitus, peripheral arterial disease, peripheral neuropathy, and foot deformities were included for potential confounding. Results A total of 669 individuals were included: 539 in CKD 3, 540 in CKD 4-5, and 259 in dialysis treatment (individuals could progress from one group to the next). Unadjusted foot ulcer incidence rates per 1000 patients per year were 12 for CKD 3, 47 for CKD 4-5, and 104 for dialysis (P < .001). In multivariate analyses, the hazard ratio for incidence of foot ulceration was 4.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.6-6.3) in CKD 4-5 and 7.6 (95% CI, 4.8-12.1) in dialysis treatment compared with CKD 3. Hazard ratios for incidence of major amputation were 9.5 (95% CI, 2.1-43.0) and 15 (95% CI, 3.3-71.0), respectively. Conclusions CKD 4-5 and dialysis treatment are independent risk factors for foot ulceration and major amputation compared with CKD 3. Maximum effort is needed in daily clinical practice to prevent foot ulcers and their devastating consequences in all individuals with CKD 4-5 or dialysis treatment.