Expert elicitation and its interface with technology : a review with a view to designing Elicitator

Expert knowledge is valuable in many modelling endeavours, particularly where data is not extensive or sufficiently robust. In Bayesian statistics, expert opinion may be formulated as informative priors, to provide an honest reflection of the current state of knowledge, before updating this with new information. Technology is increasingly being exploited to help support the process of eliciting such information. This paper reviews the benefits that have been gained from utilizing technology in this way. These benefits can be structured within a six-step elicitation design framework proposed recently (Low Choy et al., 2009). We assume that the purpose of elicitation is to formulate a Bayesian statistical prior, either to provide a standalone expert-defined model, or for updating new data within a Bayesian analysis. We also assume that the model has been pre-specified before selecting the software. In this case, technology has the most to offer to: targeting what experts know (E2), eliciting and encoding expert opinions (E4), whilst enhancing accuracy (E5), and providing an effective and efficient protocol (E6). Benefits include: -providing an environment with familiar nuances (to make the expert comfortable) where experts can explore their knowledge from various perspectives (E2); -automating tedious or repetitive tasks, thereby minimizing calculation errors, as well as encouraging interaction between elicitors and experts (E5); -cognitive gains by educating users, enabling instant feedback (E2, E4-E5), and providing alternative methods of communicating assessments and feedback information, since experts think and learn differently; and -ensuring a repeatable and transparent protocol is used (E6).

A programming language for software components

Component software has many benefits, most notably increased software re-use; however, the component software process places heavy burdens on programming language technology, which modern object-oriented programming languages do not address. In particular, software components require specifications that are both sufficiently expressive and sufficiently abstract, and, where possible, these specifications should be checked formally by the programming language. This dissertation presents a programming language called Mentok that provides two novel programming language features enabling improved specification of stateful component roles. Negotiable interfaces are interface types extended with protocols, and allow specification of changing method availability, including some patterns of out-calls and re-entrance. Type layers are extensions to module signatures that allow specification of abstract control flow constraints through the interfaces of a component-based application. Development of Mentok's unique language features included creation of MentokC, the Mentok compiler, and formalization of key properties of Mentok in mini-languages called MentokP and MentokL.

Analyzing requirements and approaches for sourcing software based services

Increasingly, software is no longer developed as a single system, but rather as a smart combination of so-called software services. Each of these provides an independent, specific and relatively small piece of functionality, which is typically accessible through the Internet from internal or external service providers. To the best of our knowledge, there are no standards or models that describe the sourcing process of these software based services (SBS). We identify the sourcing requirements for SBS and associate the key characteristics of SBS (with the sourcing requirements introduced). Furthermore, we investigate the sourcing of SBS with the related works in the field of classical procurement, business process outsourcing, and information systems sourcing. Based on the analysis, we conclude that the direct adoption of these approaches for SBS is not feasible and new approaches are required for sourcing SBS.

Analyzing requirements and approaches for sourcing software based services

Increasingly, software is no longer developed as a single system, but rather as a smart combination of so-called software services. Each of these provides an independent, specific and relatively small piece of functionality, which is typically accessible through the Internet from internal or external service providers. There are no standards or models that describe the sourcing process of these software based services (SBS). The authors identify the sourcing requirements for SBS and associate the key characteristics of SBS (with the sourcing requirements introduced). Furthermore, this paper investigates the sourcing of SBS with the related works in the field of classical procurement, business process outsourcing, and information systems sourcing. Based on the analysis, the authors conclude that the direct adoption of these approaches for SBS is not feasible and new approaches are required for sourcing SBS.

Proceedings of the 21st Australian Software Engineering Conference (ASWEC 2010) : 6-9 April 2010, Auckland, New Zealand.

ASWEC is a joint conference of Engineers Australia and the Australian Computer Society reporting through the Engineers Australia/ACS Joint Board on Software Engineering.

Advanced mathematical modelling and experimental investigation of new torque arms for shaft-mounted drives

Shaft-mounted gearboxes are widely used in industry. The torque arm that holds the reactive torque on the housing of the gearbox, if properly positioned creates the reactive force that lifts the gearbox and unloads the bearings of the output shaft. The shortcoming of these torque arms is that if the gearbox is reversed the direction of the reactive force on the torque arm changes to opposite and added to the weight of the gearbox overloads the bearings shortening their operating life. In this paper, a new patented design of torque arms that develop a controlled lifting force and counteract the weight of the gearbox regardless of the direction of the output shaft rotation is described. Several mathematical models of the conventional and new torque arms were developed and verified experimentally on a specially built test rig that enables modelling of the radial compliance of the gearbox bearings and elastic elements of the torque arms. Comparison showed a good agreement between theoretical and experimental results.

Interaction, privacy and profiling considerations in local mobile social software : a prototype agile ride share system

Agile ridesharing aims to utilise the capability of social networks and mobile phones to facilitate people to share vehicles and travel in real time. However the application of social networking technologies in local communities to address issues of personal transport faces significant design challenges. In this paper we describe an iterative design-based approach to exploring this problem and discuss findings from the use of an early prototype. The findings focus upon interaction, privacy and profiling. Our early results suggest that explicitly entering information such as ride data and personal profile data into formal fields for explicit computation of matches, as is done in many systems, may not be the best strategy. It might be preferable to support informal communication and negotiation with text search techniques.

Expertise in software design : novice and expert models

This paper investigates how software designers use their knowledge during the design process. The research is based on the analysis of the observational and verbal data from three software design teams generated during the conceptual stage of the design process. The knowledge captured from the analysis of the mapped design team data is utilized to generate descriptive models of novice and expert designers. These models contribute to a better understanding of the connections between, and integration of, designer variables, and to a better understanding of software design expertise and its development. The models are transferable to other domains.

Modelling of operating theatres using simulation

This paper describes the development of a simulation model for operating theatres. Elective patient scheduling is complicated by several factors; stochastic demand for resources due to variation in the nature and severity of a patient’s illness, unexpected complications in a patient’s course of treatment and the arrival of non-scheduled emergency patients which compete for resources. Extend simulation software was used for its ability to represent highly complex systems and analyse model outputs. Patient arrivals and lengths of surgery are determined by analysis of historical data. The model was used to explore the effects increasing patient arrivals and alternative elective patient admission disciplines would have on the performance measures. The model can be used as a decision support system for hospital planners.

Mathematical modelling of chronic wound healing

Chronicwounds fail to proceed through an orderly process to produce anatomic and functional integrity and are a significant socioeconomic problem. There is much debate about the best way to treat these wounds. In this thesis we review earlier mathematical models of angiogenesis and wound healing. Many of these models assume a chemotactic response of endothelial cells, the primary cell type involved in angiogenesis. Modelling this chemotactic response leads to a system of advection-dominated partial differential equations and we review numerical methods to solve these equations and argue that the finite volume method with flux limiting is best-suited to these problems. One treatment of chronic wounds that is shrouded with controversy is hyperbaric oxygen therapy (HBOT). There is currently no conclusive data showing that HBOT can assist chronic wound healing, but there has been some clinical success. In this thesis we use several mathematical models of wound healing to investigate the use of hyperbaric oxygen therapy to assist the healing process - a novel threespecies model and a more complex six-species model. The second model accounts formore of the biological phenomena but does not lend itself tomathematical analysis. Bothmodels are then used tomake predictions about the efficacy of hyperbaric oxygen therapy and the optimal treatment protocol. Based on our modelling, we are able to make several predictions including that intermittent HBOT will assist chronic wound healing while normobaric oxygen is ineffective in treating such wounds, treatment should continue until healing is complete and finding the right protocol for an individual patient is crucial if HBOT is to be effective. Analysis of the models allows us to derive constraints for the range of HBOT protocols that will stimulate healing, which enables us to predict which patients are more likely to have a positive response to HBOT and thus has the potential to assist in improving both the success rate and thus the cost-effectiveness of this therapy.

Open source software for workflow management : the case of YAWL

"This column is distinguished from previous Impact columns in that it concerns the development tightrope between research and commercial take-up and the role of the LGPL in an open source workflow toolkit produced in a University environment. Many ubiquitous systems have followed this route, (Apache, BSD Unix, ...), and the lessons this Service Oriented Architecture produces cast yet more light on how software diffuses out to impact us all." Michiel van Genuchten and Les Hatton Workflow management systems support the design, execution and analysis of business processes. A workflow management system needs to guarantee that work is conducted at the right time, by the right person or software application, through the execution of a workflow process model. Traditionally, there has been a lack of broad support for a workflow modeling standard. Standardization efforts proposed by the Workflow Management Coalition in the late nineties suffered from limited support for routing constructs. In fact, as later demonstrated by the Workflow Patterns Initiative (www.workflowpatterns.com), a much wider range of constructs is required when modeling realistic workflows in practice. YAWL (Yet Another Workflow Language) is a workflow language that was developed to show that comprehensive support for the workflow patterns is achievable. Soon after its inception in 2002, a prototype system was built to demonstrate that it was possible to have a system support such a complex language. From that initial prototype, YAWL has grown into a fully-fledged, open source workflow management system and support environment