Are combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility statistically superior?

Forecasting volatility has received a great deal of research attention, with the relative performances of econometric model based and option implied volatility forecasts often being considered. While many studies find that implied volatility is the pre-ferred approach, a number of issues remain unresolved, including the relative merit of combining forecasts and whether the relative performances of various forecasts are statistically different. By utilising recent econometric advances, this paper considers whether combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility are statistically superior to a wide range of model based forecasts and implied volatility. It is found that a combination of model based forecasts is the dominant approach, indicating that the implied volatility cannot simply be viewed as a combination of various model based forecasts. Therefore, while often viewed as a superior volatility forecast, the implied volatility is in fact an inferior forecast of S&P 500 volatility relative to model-based forecasts.

Serum polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDE) in pooled serum are higher in children (2-5 years of age) than in infants and adults

Background: Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are used as flame retardants in many products and have been detected in human samples worldwide. Limited data show that concentrations are elevated in young children. Objectives: We investigated the association between PBDEs and age with an emphasis on young children from Australia in 2006–2007. Methods: We collected human blood serum samples (n = 2,420), which we stratified by age and sex and pooled for analysis of PBDEs. Results: The sum of BDE-47, -99, -100, and -153 concentrations (Σ4PBDE) increased from 0–0.5 years (mean ± SD, 14 ± 3.4 ng/g lipid) to peak at 2.6–3 years (51 ± 36 ng/g lipid; p < 0.001) and then decreased until 31–45 years (9.9 ± 1.6 ng/g lipid). We observed no further significant decrease among ages 31–45, 45–60 (p = 0.964), or > 60 years (p = 0.894). The mean Σ4PBDE concentration in cord blood (24 ± 14 ng/g lipid) did not differ significantly from that in adult serum at ages 15–30 (p = 0.198) or 31–45 years (p = 0.140). We found no temporal trend when we compared the present results with Australian PBDE data from 2002–2005. PBDE concentrations were higher in males than in females; however, this difference reached statistical significance only for BDE-153 (p = 0.05). Conclusions: The observed peak concentration at 2.6–3 years of age is later than the period when breast-feeding is typically ceased. This suggests that in addition to the exposure via human milk, young children have higher exposure to these chemicals and/or a lower capacity to eliminate them. Key words: Australia, children, cord blood, human blood serum, PBDEs, polybrominated diphenyl ethers. Environ Health Perspect 117:1461–1465 (2009). doi:10.1289/ehp.0900596

Near infrared spectroscopy of stearic acid adsorbed on montmorillonite

The adsorption of stearic acid on both sodium montmorillonites and calcium montmorillonites has been studied by near infrared spectroscopy complimented with infrared spectroscopy. Upon adsorption of stearic acid on Ca-Mt additional near infrared bands are observed at 8236 cm-1 and is assigned to an interaction of stearic acid with the water of hydration. Upon adsorption of the stearic acid on Na-Mt, the NIR bands are now observed at 5671, 5778, 5848 and 5912 cm-1 and are assigned to the overtone and combination bands of the CH fundamentals. Additional bands at 4177, 4250, 4324, 4337, 4689 and 4809 cm-1 are attributed to CH combination bands resulting from the adsorption of the stearic acid. Stearic acid is used as a model molecule for adsorption studies. The application of near infrared spectroscopy to the study of this adsorption proved most useful.

Can tissue engineering concepts advance tumor biology research?

Advances in tissue engineering have traditionally led to the design of scaffold- or matrix-based culture systems that better reflect the biological, physical and biochemical environment of the natural extracellular matrix. Although their clinical applications in regenerative medicine tend to receive most of the attention, it is obvious that other areas of biomedical research could be well served by the powerful tools that have already been developed in tissue engineering. In this article, we review the recent literature to demonstrate how tissue engineering platforms can enhance in vitro and in vivo models of tumorigenesis and thus hold great promise to contribute to future cancer research.

Contribution of thickened drinks, food and enteral and parenteral fluids to fluid intake in hospitalised patients with dysphagia

Background Studies amongst older people with acute dysphagic stroke requiring thickened fluids have assessed fluid intakes from combinations of beverage, food, enteral and parenteral sources, but not all sources simultaneously. The study aimed to comprehensively assess total water intake from food, beverages, enteral and parenteral sources amongst dysphagic adult in-patients receiving thickened fluids. Methods Patients requiring thickened fluid following dysphagia diagnosis were recruited consecutively from a tertiary teaching hospital’s medical and neurosurgical wards. Fluid intake from food and beverages was assessed by wastage, direct observation and quantified from enteral and parenteral sources through clinical medical records. Results No patients achieved their calculated fluid requirements unless enteral or parenteral fluids were received. The mean daily fluid intake from food was greater than from beverages whether receiving diet alone (food 807±363mL, food and beverages 370±179mL, p<0.001) or diet with enteral or parenteral fluid support (food 455±408mL, food and beverages 263±232mL, p<0.001). Greater daily fluid intakes occurred when receiving enteral and parenteral fluid in addition to oral dietary intake, irrespective of age group, whether assistance was required, diagnosis and whether stage 3 or stage 2 thickened fluids were required (p<0.05). After enteral and parenteral sources, food provided the most important contribution to daily fluid intakes. Conclusions The greatest contribution to oral fluid intake was from food, not beverages. Designing menus and food services which promote and encourage the enjoyment of fluid dense foods, in contrast to thickened beverages, may present an important way to improve fluid intakes of those with dysphagia. Supplemental enteral or parenteral fluid may be necessary to achieve minimum calculated fluid requirements.

Signs, symptoms and comorbidities in contact lens-related microbial keratitis

Purpose: The aim of this study was to characterize the clinical signs, symptoms, and ocular and systemic comorbidities in a large case series of contact lens-related microbial keratitis. Methods: Two hundred ninety-seven cases of contact lens-related microbial keratitis, aged between 15 and 64 years were detected through surveillance of hospital and community based ophthalmic practitioners in Australia and New Zealand. Full clinical data were available for 190 cases and 90 were interviewed by telephone. Clinical data included the size, location, and degree of anterior chamber response. Symptom data were available from the practitioner and from participant self-report. Associations between symptoms and disease severity were evaluated. Data on ocular and systemic disease were collected from participants and practitioners. The frequency of comorbidities was compared between the different severities of disease and to population norms. Results: More severe disease was associated with greater symptom severity and pain was the most prevalent symptom reported. Ninety-one percent of cases showed progression of ocular symptoms after lens removal, and symptom progression was associated with all severities of disease. Twenty-five percent of cases reported prior episodes requiring emergency attention. Thyroid disease (p 0.05) and self-reported poor health (p 0.001) were more common in cases compared with age-matched population norms. Discussion: Information on the signs, symptoms, and comorbidities associated with contact lens-related microbial keratitis may be useful in patient education and for practitioners involved in the fitting of lenses and management of complications. Although pain was the most common symptom experienced, progression of symptoms despite lens removal was close to universal. Poor general health, particularly respiratory disease and thyroid disease was more common in cases than in the general population, which may prompt practitioners to recommend flexibility in wear schedules when in poor health or the selection of a lower risk wear schedule in at risk patients

Best basis-based intelligent machine fault diagnosis

The wavelet packet transform decomposes a signal into a set of bases for time–frequency analysis. This decomposition creates an opportunity for implementing distributed data mining where features are extracted from different wavelet packet bases and served as feature vectors for applications. This paper presents a novel approach for integrated machine fault diagnosis based on localised wavelet packet bases of vibration signals. The best basis is firstly determined according to its classification capability. Data mining is then applied to extract features and local decisions are drawn using Bayesian inference. A final conclusion is reached using a weighted average method in data fusion. A case study on rolling element bearing diagnosis shows that this approach can greatly improve the accuracy ofdiagno sis.

Visual impairment, postural stability and falls among older adults with glaucoma

Purpose: To investigate the impact of glaucomatous visual impairment on postural sway and falls among older adults.Methods: The sample comprised 72 community-dwelling older adults with open-angle glaucoma, aged 74.0 5.8 years (range 62 to 90 years). Measures of visual function included binocular visual acuity (high-contrast), binocular contrast sensitivity (Pelli- Robson) and binocular visual fields (merged monocular HFA 24-2 SITA-Std). Postural stability was assessed under four conditions: eyes open and closed, on a firm and on a foam surface. Falls were monitored for six months with prospective falls diaries. Regression models, adjusting for age and gender, examined the association between vision measures and postural stability (linear regression) and the number of falls (negative binomial regression). Results: Greater visual field loss was significantly associated with poorer postural stability with eyes open, both on firm (r = 0.34, p < 0.01) and foam (r = 0.45, p < 0.001) surfaces. Eighteen (25 per cent) participants experienced at least one fall: 12 (17 per cent) participants fell only once and six (eight per cent) participants fell two or more times (up to five falls). Visual field loss was significantly associated with falling; the rate of falls doubled for every 10 dB reduction in field sensitivity (rate ratio = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.02–1.13). Importantly, in a model comprising upper and lower field sensitivity, only lower field loss was significantly associated with the number of falls (rate ratio = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.04–1.33). Conclusions: Binocular visual field loss was significantly associated with postural instability and falls among older adults with glaucoma. These findings provide valuable directions for developing falls risk assessment and falls prevention strategies for this population.

Empirical measurement of the Enright phenomenon, a distortion of perceived driving speed

Purpose: In 1970, Enright observed a distortion of perceived driving speed, induced by monocular application of a neutral density (ND) filter. If a driver looks out of the right side of a vehicle with a filter over the right eye, the driver perceives a reduction of the vehicle’s apparent velocity, while applying a ND filter over the left eye increases the vehicle’s apparent velocity. The purpose of the current study was to provide the first empirical measurements of the Enright phenomenon. Methods: Ten experienced drivers were tested and drove an automatic sedan on a closed road circuit. Filters (0.9 ND) were placed over the left, right or both eyes during a driving run, in addition to a control condition with no filters in place. Subjects were asked to look out of the right side of the car and adjust their driving speed to either 40 km/h or 60 km/h. Results: Without a filter or with both eyes filtered subjects showed good estimation of speed when asked to travel at 60 km/h but travelled a mean of 12 to 14 km/h faster than the requested 40 km/h. Subjects travelled faster than these baselines by a mean of 7 to 9 km/h (p < 0.001) with the filter over their right eye, and 3 to 5 km/h slower with the filter over their left eye (p < 0.05). Conclusions: The Enright phenomenon causes significant and measurable distortions of perceived driving speed under realworld driving conditions.

Influence of presbyopic corrections on driving-related eye and head movements

Purpose: To investigate whether wearing different presbyopic refractive corrections alters the pattern of eye and head movements when searching for dynamic targets in driving-related traffic scenes. Methods: Eye and head movements of 20 presbyopes (mean age = 56.2 ± 5.7 years), who had no experience of wearing presbyopic corrections or were unadapted wearers were recorded using the faceLABTM eye and head tracker, while wearing five different corrections: single vision lenses (SV), progressive addition lenses (PALs), bifocal spectacles (BIF), monovision and multifocal contact lenses (MTF CLs) in random order (within-subjects comparison). Recorded traffic scenes of suburban roads and expressways with edited targets were viewed as dynamic stimuli. Results: The magnitude of eye and head movements was significantly greater for SV, BIF and PALs than monovision and MTF CLs (p < 0.001). In addition, BIF wear led to more eye movements than PAL wear (p = 0.017), while PAL wear resulted in greater head movements than SV wear (p = 0.018). The ratio of eye to head movement was smaller for PALs than all other groups (p < 0.001). The number of saccades made to fixate a target was significantly higher for BIF and PALs than monovision or MTF CLs (p < 0.05). Conclusions: Different presbyopic corrections can alter eye and head movement patterns. Wearing spectacles such as BIF and PALs produced relatively greater eye and head movements and saccades when viewing dynamic targets. The impact of these changes in eye and head movement patterns may have implications for driving performance under real world driving conditions.

Involvement of target contrast in visual masking location tasks deficients in myopia

Purpose: There have been few studies of visual temporal processing of myopic eyes. This study investigated the visual performance of emmetropic and myopic eyes using a backward visual masking location task. Methods: Data were collected for 39 subjects (15 emmetropes, 12 stable myopes, 12 progressing myopes). In backward visual masking, a target’s visibility is reduced by a mask presented in quick succession ‘after’ the target. The target and mask stimuli were presented at different interstimulus intervals (from 12 to 300 ms). The task involved locating the position of a target letter with both a higher (seven per cent) and a lower (five per cent) contrast. Results: Emmetropic subjects had significantly better performance for the lower contrast location task than the myopes (F2,36 = 22.88; p < 0.001) but there was no difference between the progressing and stable myopic groups (p = 0.911). There were no differences between the groups for the higher contrast location task (F2,36 = 0.72, p = 0.495). No relationship between task performance and either the magnitude of myopia or axial length was found for either task. Conclusions: A location task deficit was observed in myopes only for lower contrast stimuli. Both emmetropic and myopic groups had better performance for the higher contrast task compared to the lower contrast task, with myopes showing considerable improvement. This suggests that five per cent contrast may be the contrast threshold required to bias the task towards the magnocellular system (where myopes have a temporal processing deficit). Alternatively, the task may be sensitive to the contrast sensitivity of the observer.

The intra-aortic balloon pump in heart failure management : implications for nursing practice

Management of acute heart failure is an important consideration in critical care. Mechanical support of the failing heart is crucial for improving health outcomes. The most common Australasian application of intraaortic balloon counterpulsation (IABP) is in the setting of cardiogenic shock. High end users of IABP (>37/annum) demonstrate significantly lower mortality for cardiogenic shock managed with IABP (p <0.001) in contrast to hospitals which employ limited IABP (<4/annum). This underscores the importance of proficiency in managing patient receiving IABP support. Nurses play a crucial role in carding for patients with acute heart failure. This paper summarises care considerations for management of the IABP.

Evaluation of contextual influences on the medication administration practice of paediatric nurses

Aim. This paper is a report of a study conducted to explore the impact of preidentified contextual themes (related to work environment and socialization) on nursing medication practice. Background. Medication administration is a complex aspect of paediatric nursing and an important component of day-to-day nursing practice. Many attempts are being made to improve patient safety, but many errors remain. Identifying and understanding factors that influence medication administration errors are of utmost importance. Method. A cross-sectional survey was conducted with a sample of 278 paediatric nurses from the emergency department, intensive care unit and medical and surgical wards of an Australian tertiary paediatric hospital in 2004. The response rate was 67%. Result. Contextual influences were important in determining how closely medication policy was followed. Completed questionnaires were returned by 185 nurses (67%). Younger nurses aged <34 years thought that their medication administration practice could be influenced by the person with whom they checked the drugs (P = 0·001), and that there were daily circumstances when it was acceptable not to adhere strictly to medication policy (P < 0·001), including choosing between following policy and acting in the best interests of the child (P = 0·002). Senior nurses agreed that senior staff dictate acceptable levels of medication policy adherence through role modelling (P = 0·01). Less experienced nurses reported greater confidence with computer literacy (P < 0·001). Conclusions. Organizations need to employ multidisciplinary education programmes to promote universal understanding of, and adherence to, medication policies. Skill mix should be closely monitored to ensure adequate support for new and junior staff.