Supporting risk-informed decisions during business process execution

This paper proposes a technique that supports process participants in making risk-informed decisions, with the aim to reduce the process risks. Risk reduction involves decreasing the likelihood and severity of a process fault from occurring. Given a process exposed to risks, e.g. a financial process exposed to a risk of reputation loss, we enact this process and whenever a process participant needs to provide input to the process, e.g. by selecting the next task to execute or by filling out a form, we prompt the participant with the expected risk that a given fault will occur given the particular input. These risks are predicted by traversing decision trees generated from the logs of past process executions and considering process data, involved resources, task durations and contextual information like task frequencies. The approach has been implemented in the YAWL system and its effectiveness evaluated. The results show that the process instances executed in the tests complete with substantially fewer faults and with lower fault severities, when taking into account the recommendations provided by our technique.

Adaption and use of a compressible flow code for turbomachinery design

The present paper presents and discusses the use of dierent codes regarding the numerical simulation of a radial-in ow turbine. A radial-in ow turbine test case was selected from published literature [1] and commercial codes (Fluent and CFX) were used to perform the steady-state numerical simulations. An in-house compressible- ow simulation code, Eilmer3 [2] was also adapted in order to make it suitable to perform turbomachinery simulations and preliminary results are presented and discussed. The code itself as well as its adaptation, comprising the addition of terms for the rotating frame of reference, programmable boundary conditions for periodic boundaries and a mixing plane interface between the rotating and non-rotating blocks are also discussed. Several cases with dierent orders of complexity in terms of geometry were considered and the results were compared across the dierent codes. The agreement between these results and published data is also discussed.

Markers of cutaneous human papillomavirus infection in individuals with tumor-free skin, actinic keratoses, and squamous cell carcinoma

Separately, actinic keratosis (AK) and cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) have been associated with cutaneous human papillomavirus (HPV) infections. To further explore the association between HPV infection and SCC development, we determined markers of cutaneous HPV infection within a single population in persons with precursor lesions (AK), cancerous lesions (SCC), and without. Serum and plucked eyebrow hairs were collected from 57 tumor-free controls, 126 AK, and 64 SCC cases. Presence of HPV L1 and E6 seroreactivity and viral DNA were determined for HPV types 5, 8, 15, 16, 20, 24, and 38. Significant positive associations with increasing severity of the lesions (controls, AK, and SCC, respectively) were observed for overall HPV L1 seropositivity (13%, 26%, and 37%) and for HPV8 (4%, 17%, and 30%). In parallel, the proportion of L1 seropositive individuals against multiple HPV types increased from 14% to 39% and 45%. The overall E6 seroreactivity, however, tended to decline with AK and SCC, especially for HPV8 (21%, 11%, and 2%). HPV DNA positivity was most prevalent in the AK cases (54%) compared with the SCC cases (44%) and the tumor-free controls (40%). Among all participants, there was a positive trend between overall HPV DNA positivity and L1 seropositivity, but not E6 seropositivity. Taken together, our data suggest that cutaneous HPV infections accompanied by detectable HPV DNA in eyebrow hairs and HPV L1 seropositivity, but not E6 seropositivity, are associated with an increased risk of AK and SCC.

Recruitment and results of a pilot trial of vitamin D supplementation in the general population of Australia

Context: The benefits of high serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] are unclear. Trials are needed to establish an appropriate evidence base. Objective: We plan to conduct a large-scale trial of vitamin D supplementation for the reduction of cancer incidence and overall mortality and report here the methods and results of a pilot trial established to inform its design. Design: Pilot D-Health was a randomized trial carried out in a general community setting with 12 months intervention and follow-up. Participants: Participants were 60- to 84-yr-old residents of one of the four eastern Australian states who did not have any vitamin D-related disorders and who were not taking more than 400 IU supplementary vitamin D per day. A total of 644 participants were randomized, and 615 completed the study (two persons withdrew because of nonserious adverse events). Interventions: The interventions were monthly doses of placebo or 30,000 or 60,000 IU vitamin D3. Main Outcomes: The main outcomes were the recruitment rate and changes in serum 25(OH)D. Results: Ten percent of those approached were recruited. At baseline, the mean 25(OH)D was 42 nmol/liter in all three study arms. The mean change in 25(OH)D in the placebo group was 0.12 nmol/liter, compared with changes of 22 and 36 nmol/liter in the 30,000- and 60,000-IU groups, respectively. Conclusions: The D-Health pilot has shown that a large trial is feasible in Australia and that a dose of 2000 IU/d will be needed to ensure that a large proportion of the population reaches the target serum 25(OH)D level. Copyright © 2012 by The Endocrine Society.

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The relationship between anti-mullerian hormone in women receiving fertility assessments and age at menopause in subfertile women : evidence from large population studies

Context: Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) concentration reflects ovarian aging and is argued to be a useful predictor of age at menopause (AMP). It is hypothesized that AMH falling below a critical threshold corresponds to follicle depletion, which results in menopause. With this threshold, theoretical predictions of AMP can be made. Comparisons of such predictions with observed AMP from population studies support the role for AMH as a forecaster of menopause. Objective: The objective of the study was to investigate whether previous relationships between AMH and AMP are valid using a much larger data set. Setting: AMH was measured in 27 563 women attending fertility clinics. Study Design: From these data a model of age-related AMH change was constructed using a robust regression analysis. Data on AMP from subfertile women were obtained from the population-based Prospect-European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (Prospect- EPIC) cohort (n � 2249). By constructing a probability distribution of age at which AMH falls below a critical threshold and fitting this to Prospect-EPIC menopausal age data using maximum likelihood, such a threshold was estimated. Main Outcome: The main outcome was conformity between observed and predicted AMP. Results: To get a distribution of AMH-predicted AMP that fit the Prospect-EPIC data, we found the critical AMH threshold should vary among women in such a way that women with low age-specific AMH would have lower thresholds, whereas women with high age-specific AMH would have higher thresholds (mean 0.075 ng/mL; interquartile range 0.038–0.15 ng/mL). Such a varying AMH threshold for menopause is a novel and biologically plausible finding. AMH became undetectable (�0.2 ng/mL) approximately 5 years before the occurrence of menopause, in line with a previous report. Conclusions: The conformity of the observed and predicted distributions of AMP supports the hypothesis that declining population averages of AMH are associated with menopause, making AMH an excellent candidate biomarker for AMP prediction. Further research will help establish the accuracy of AMH levels to predict AMP within individuals.

Towards an understanding of model driven process configuration and its support at large

The common presupposition of Enterprise Systems (ES) is that they lead to significant efficiency gains. However, this is only the case for well-implemented ES that meet organisational requirements. The list of major ES implementation failures is as long as the list of success stories. We argue here that this arises from a more fundamental problem, the functionalist approach to ES development and provision. As long as vendors will continue to develop generic, difficult-to-adapt ES packages, this problem will prevail because organisations have a non-generic character. A solution to this problem can only consist in rethinking the way ES packages are provided. We propose a strict abstraction layer of ES functionalities and their representation as conceptual models. ES vendors must provide sufficient means for configuring these conceptual models. We discuss in this paper what generic situations can occur during process model configuration in order to understand process model configuration in depth.

From conceptual process models to running workflows : a holistic approach for the configuration of enterprise systems

The configuration of comprehensive Enterprise Systems to meet the specific requirements of an organisation up to today is consuming significant resources. The results of failing implementation projects are severe and may even threaten the organisation’s existence. This paper proposes a method which aims at increasing the efficiency of Enterprise Systems implementations. First, we argue that existing process modelling languages that feature different degrees of abstraction for different user groups exist and are used for different purposes which makes it necessary to integrate them. We describe how to do this using the meta models of the involved languages. Second, we motivate that an integrated process model based on the integrated meta model needs to be configurable and elaborate on the mechanisms by which this model configuration can be achieved. We introduce a business example using SAP modelling techniques to illustrate the proposed method.

Model-driven process configuration of enterprise systems

The configuration of comprehensive enterprise systems to meet the specific requirements of an organisation up to today is consuming significant resources. The results of failing or delayed enterprise system implementation projects are severe and may even threaten the organisation’s existence. One of the main drivers for implementing comprehensive enterprise systems is to streamline business processes. However, an intuitive conceptual support for business process configuration is insufficiently addressed by enterprise system vendors and inadequately researched in academia. This paper presents a model-driven approach to target this problem and proposes several configuration patterns that describe generic patterns of configuration alternatives, in order to understand what situations can occur during business process configuration. Based on these configuration patterns, a configuration notation is introduced that allows for visually highlighting configuration alternatives. Finally, we will sketch how configurable Event Driven Process Chains and the configuration of business processes can be supported using relational databases.

Vitamin D status and skin cancer risk independent of time outdoors : 11-year prospective study in and Australian community

Vitamin D may have anti-skin cancer effects, but population-based evidence is lacking. We therefore assessed associations between vitamin D status and skin cancer risk in an Australian subtropical community. We analyzed prospective skin cancer incidence for 11 years following baseline assessment of serum 25(OH)-vitamin D in 1,191 adults (average age 54 years) and used multivariable logistic regression analysis to adjust risk estimates for age, sex, detailed assessments of usual time spent outdoors, phenotypic characteristics, and other possible confounders. Participants with serum 25(OH)-vitamin D concentrations above 75 nmol  l(-1) versus those below 75 nmol  l(-1) more often developed basal cell carcinoma (odds ratio (OR)=1.51 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10-2.07, P=0.01) and melanoma (OR=2.71 (95% CI: 0.98-7.48, P=0.05)). Squamous cell carcinoma incidence tended to be lower in persons with serum 25(OH)-vitamin D concentrations above 75 nmol  l(-1) compared with those below 75 nmol  l(-1) (OR=0.67 (95% CI: 0.44-1.03, P=0.07)). Vitamin D status was not associated with skin cancer incidence when participants were classified as above or below 50 nmol  l(-1) 25(OH)-vitamin D. Our findings do not indicate that the carcinogenicity of high sun exposure can be counteracted by high vitamin D status. High sun exposure is to be avoided as a means to achieve high vitamin D status.

Predicting vitamin D deficiency in older Australian adults

OBJECTIVE There has been a dramatic increase in vitamin D testing in Australia in recent years, prompting calls for targeted testing. We sought to develop a model to identify people most at risk of vitamin D deficiency. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS This is a cross-sectional study of 644 60- to 84-year-old participants, 95% of whom were Caucasian, who took part in a pilot randomized controlled trial of vitamin D supplementation. MEASUREMENTS Baseline 25(OH)D was measured using the Diasorin Liaison platform. Vitamin D insufficiency and deficiency were defined using 50 and 25 nmol/l as cut-points, respectively. A questionnaire was used to obtain information on demographic characteristics and lifestyle factors. We used multivariate logistic regression to predict low vitamin D and calculated the net benefit of using the model compared with 'test-all' and 'test-none' strategies. RESULTS The mean serum 25(OH)D was 42 (SD 14) nmol/1. Seventy-five per cent of participants were vitamin D insufficient and 10% deficient. Serum 25(OH)D was positively correlated with time outdoors, physical activity, vitamin D intake and ambient UVR, and inversely correlated with age, BMI and poor self-reported health status. These predictors explained approximately 21% of the variance in serum 25(OH)D. The area under the ROC curve predicting vitamin D deficiency was 0·82. Net benefit for the prediction model was higher than that for the 'test-all' strategy at all probability thresholds and higher than the 'test-none' strategy for probabilities up to 60%. CONCLUSION Our model could predict vitamin D deficiency with reasonable accuracy, but it needs to be validated in other populations before being implemented.

Fourth wall removed : womens' liberation or entrapment?

Australian dramatic literature of the 1950s and 1960s heralded a new wave in theatre and canonised a unique Australian identity on local and international stages. In previous decades, Australian theatre had been abound with the mythology of the wide brown land and the outback hero. This rural setting proved remote to audiences and sat uneasily within the conventions of the naturalist theatre. It was the suburban home that provided the back drop for this postwar evolution in Australian drama. While there were a number of factors that contributed to this watershed in Australian theatre, little has been written about how the spatial context may have influenced this movement. With the combined effects of postwar urbanization and shifting ideologies around domesticity, a new literary landscape had been created for playwrights to explore. Australian playwrights such as Dorothy Hewett, Ray Lawler and David Williamson transcended the outback hero by relocating him inside the postwar home. The Australian home of the 1960s slowly started subscribing to a new aesthetic of continuous living spaces and patios that extended from the exterior to the interior. These mass produced homes employed diluted spatial principles of houses designed by architects, Le Corbusier, Ludwig Mies Van der Rohe and Adolf Loos in the 1920s and 1930s. In writing about Adolf Loos’ architecture, Beatriz Colomina described the “house as a stage for the family theatre”. She also wrote that the inhabitants of Loos’ houses were “both actors and spectators of the family scene involved”. It has not been investigated as to whether this new capacity to spectate within the home was a catalyst for playwrights to reflect upon, and translate the domestic environment to the stage. Audiences were also accustomed to being spectators of domesticity and could relate to the representations of home in the theatre. Additionally, the domestic setting provided a space for gender discourse; a space in which contestations of masculine and feminine identities could be played out. This research investigates whether spectating within the domestic setting contributed to the revolution in Australian dramatic literature of the 1950s and 1960s. The concept of the spectator in domesticity is underpinned by the work of Beatriz Colomina and Mark Wigley. An understanding of how playwrights may have been influenced by spectatorship within the home is ascertained through interviews and biographical research. The paper explores playwrights’ own domestic experiences and those that have influenced the plays they wrote and endeavours to determine whether seeing into the home played a vital role in canonising the Australian identity on the stage.

The AusD Study: A population-based study of the determinants of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration across a broad latitude range

Observational studies suggest that people with a high serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentration may have reduced risk of chronic diseases such as osteoporosis, multiple sclerosis, type 1 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and some cancers. The AusD Study (A Quantitative Assessment of Solar UV Exposure for Vitamin D Synthesis in Australian Adults) was conducted to clarify the relationships between ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure, dietary intake of vitamin D, and serum 25(OH)D concentration among Australian adults residing in Townsville (19.3°S), Brisbane (27.5°S), Canberra (35.3°S), and Hobart (42.8°S). Participants aged 18-75 years were recruited from the Australian Electoral Roll between 2009 and 2010. Measurements were made of height, weight, waist:hip ratio, skin, hair, and eye color, blood pressure, and grip strength. Participants completed a questionnaire on sun exposure and vitamin D intake, together with 10 days of personal UV dosimetry and an associated sun-exposure and physical-activity diary that was temporally linked to a blood test for measurement of 25(OH)D concentration. Ambient solar UV radiation was also monitored at all study sites. We collected comprehensive, high-quality data from 1,002 participants (459 males, 543 females) assessed simultaneously across a range of latitudes and through all seasons. Here we describe the scientific and methodological issues considered in designing the AusD Study.

The effect of Fe doping on adsorption of CO2/N2within carbon nanotubes : a density functional theory study with dispersion corrections

An ab initio density functional theory (DFT) study with correction for dispersive interactions was performed to study the adsorption of N2 and CO2 inside an (8, 8) single-walled carbon nanotube. We find that the approach of combining DFT and van der Waals correction is very effective for describing the long-range interaction between N2/CO2 and the carbon nanotube (CNT). Surprisingly, exohedral doping of an Fe atom onto the CNT surface will only affect the adsorption energy of the quadrupolar CO2 molecule inside the CNT (20–30%), and not that of molecular N2. Our results suggest the feasibility of enhancement of CO2/N2 separation in CNT-based membranes by using exohedral doping of metal atoms.

Profiling event logs to configure risk indicators for process delays

Risk identification is one of the most challenging stages in the risk management process. Conventional risk management approaches provide little guidance and companies often rely on the knowledge of experts for risk identification. In this paper we demonstrate how risk indicators can be used to predict process delays via a method for configuring so-called Process Risk Indicators(PRIs). The method learns suitable configurations from past process behaviour recorded in event logs. To validate the approach we have implemented it as a plug-in of the ProM process mining framework and have conducted experiments using various data sets from a major insurance company.