972 resultados para ARMA model
Resumo:
Although there was substantial research into the occupational health and safety sector over the past forty years, this generally focused on statistical analyses of data related to costs and/or fatalities and injuries. There is a lack of mathematical modelling of the interactions between workers and the resulting safety dynamics of the workplace. There is also little work investigating the potential impact of different safety intervention programs prior to their implementation. In this article, we present a fundamental, differential equation-based model of workplace safety that treats worker safety habits similarly to an infectious disease in an epidemic model. Analytical results for the model, derived via phase plane and stability analysis, are discussed. The model is coupled with a model of a generic safety strategy aimed at minimising unsafe work habits, to produce an optimal control problem. The optimal control model is solved using the forward-backward sweep numerical scheme implemented in Matlab.
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Several significant studies have been made in recent decades toward understanding road traffic noise and its effects on residential balconies. These previous studies have used a variety of techniques such as theoretical models, scale models and measurements on real balconies. The studies have considered either road traffic noise levels within the balcony space or inside an adjacent habitable room or both. Previous theoretical models have used, for example, simplified specular reflection calculations, boundary element methods (BEM), adaptations of CoRTN or the use of Sabine Theory. This paper presents an alternative theoretical model to predict the effects of road traffic noise spatially within the balcony space. The model includes a specular reflection component by calculating up to 10 orders of source images. To account for diffusion effects, a two compartment radiosity component is utilised. The first radiosity compartment is the urban street, represented as a street with building facades on either side. The second radiosity compartment is the balcony space. The model is designed to calculate the predicted road traffic noise levels within the balcony space and is capable of establishing the effect of changing street and balcony geometries. Screening attenuation algorithms are included to determine the effects of solid balcony parapets and balcony ceiling shields.
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In order to execute, study, or improve operating procedures, companies document them as business process models. Often, business process analysts capture every single exception handling or alternative task handling scenario within a model. Such a tendency results in large process specifications. The core process logic becomes hidden in numerous modeling constructs. To fulfill different tasks, companies develop several model variants of the same business process at different abstraction levels. Afterwards, maintenance of such model groups involves a lot of synchronization effort and is erroneous. We propose an abstraction technique that allows generalization of process models. Business process model abstraction assumes a detailed model of a process to be available and derives coarse-grained models from it. The task of abstraction is to tell significant model elements from insignificant ones and to reduce the latter. We propose to learn insignificant process elements from supplementary model information, e.g., task execution time or frequency of task occurrence. Finally, we discuss a mechanism for user control of the model abstraction level – an abstraction slider.
Resumo:
Real world business process models may consist of hundreds of elements and have sophisticated structure. Although there are tasks where such models are valuable and appreciated, in general complexity has a negative influence on model comprehension and analysis. Thus, means for managing the complexity of process models are needed. One approach is abstraction of business process models-creation of a process model which preserves the main features of the initial elaborate process model, but leaves out insignificant details. In this paper we study the structural aspects of process model abstraction and introduce an abstraction approach based on process structure trees (PST). The developed approach assures that the abstracted process model preserves the ordering constraints of the initial model. It surpasses pattern-based process model abstraction approaches, allowing to handle graph-structured process models of arbitrary structure. We also provide an evaluation of the proposed approach.
Resumo:
Process models provide companies efficient means for managing their business processes. Tasks where process models are employed are different by nature and require models of various abstraction levels. However, maintaining several models of one business process involves a lot of synchronization effort and is erroneous. Business process model abstraction assumes a detailed model of a process to be available and derives coarse grained models from it. The task of abstraction is to tell significant model elements from insignificant ones and to reduce the latter. In this paper we argue that process model abstraction can be driven by different abstraction criteria. Criterion choice depends on a task which abstraction facilitates. We propose an abstraction slider - a mechanism that allows user control of the model abstraction level. We discuss examples of combining the slider with different abstraction criteria and sets of process model transformation rules.
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Parametric roll is a critical phenomenon for ships, whose onset may cause roll oscillations up to +-40 degrees, leading to very dangerous situations and possibly capsizing. Container ships have been shown to be particularly prone to parametric roll resonance when they are sailing in moderate to heavy head seas. A Matlab/Simulink parametric roll benchmark model for a large container ship has been implemented and validated against a wide set of experimental data. The model is a part of a Matlab/Simulink Toolbox (MSS, 2007). The benchmark implements a 3rd-order nonlinear model where the dynamics of roll is strongly coupled with the heave and pitch dynamics. The implemented model has shown good accuracy in predicting the container ship motions, both in the vertical plane and in the transversal one. Parametric roll has been reproduced for all the data sets in which it happened, and the model provides realistic results which are in good agreement with the model tank experiments.
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Objective To determine whether locally applied tobramycin influences the ability of recombinant human bone morphogenetic protein 2 (rhBMP-2) to heal a segmental defect in the rat femur. Methods The influence of tobramycin on the osteogenic differentiation of mesenchymal stem cells was first evaluated in vitro. For the subsequent, in vivo experiments, a 5-mm segmental defect was created in the right femur of each of 25 Sprague-Dawley rats and stabilized with an external fixator and four Kirschner wires. Rats were divided in four groups: empty control, tobramycin (11 mg)/absorbable collagen sponge, rhBMP-2 (11 μg)/absorbable collagen sponge, and rhBMP-2/absorbable collagen sponge with tobramycin. Bone healing was monitored by radiography at 3 and 8 weeks. Animals were euthanized at 8 weeks and the properties of the defect were compared with the intact contralateral femur. Bone formation in the defect region was assessed by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry, microcomputed tomography, histology, and mechanical testing. Results Tobramycin exerted a dose-dependent inhibition of alkaline phosphatase induction and calcium deposition by mesenchymal stem cells cultured under osteogenic conditions. The inhibition was reversed in the presence of 500 ng/mL of rhBMP-2. Segmental defects in the rat femora failed to heal in the absence of rhBMP-2. Tobramycin exerted no inhibitory effects on the ability of rhBMP-2 to heal these defects and increased the bone area of the defects treated with rhBMP-2. Data obtained from all other parameters of healing, including dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry, microcomputed tomography, histology, and mechanical testing, were unaffected by tobramycin. Conclusions Although our in vitro results suggested that tobramycin inhibits the osteogenic differentiation of mesenchymal stem cells, this could be overcome by rhBMP-2. Tobramycin did not impair the ability of rhBMP-2 to heal critical-sized femoral defects in rats. Indeed, bone area was increased by nearly 20% in the rhBMP-2 group treated with tobramycin. This study shows that locally applied tobramycin can be used in conjunction with rhBMP-2 to enhance bone formation at fracture sites.
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Musculoskeletal health can be compromised by breast cancer treatment. In particular, bone loss and arthralgias are prevalent side effects experienced by women treated with chemotherapy and/or adjuvant endocrine therapy. Bone loss leads to osteoporosis and related fractures, while arthralgias threaten quality of life and compliance to treatment. Because the processes that lead to these musculoskeletal problems are initiated when treatment begins, early identification of women who may be at higher risk of developing problems, routine monitoring of bone density and pain at certain stages of treatment, and prudent application of therapeutic interventions are key to preventing and/or minimizing musculoskeletal sequelae. Exercise may be a particularly suitable intervention strategy because of its potential to address a number of impairments; it may slow bone loss, appears to reduce joint pain in noncancer conditions, and improves other breast cancer outcomes. Research efforts continue in the areas of etiology, measurement, and treatment of bone loss and arthralgias. The purpose of this review is to provide an overview of the current knowledge on the management and treatment of bone loss and arthralgias in breast cancer survivors and to present a framework for rehabilitation care to preserve musculoskeletal health in women treated for breast cancer.
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Validation is an important issue in the development and application of Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) models, especially when the outcome of the model cannot be directly observed. Despite this, few frameworks for validating BBNs have been proposed and fewer have been applied to substantive real-world problems. In this paper we adopt the approach by Pitchforth and Mengersen (2013), which includes nine validation tests that each focus on the structure, discretisation, parameterisation and behaviour of the BBNs included in the case study. We describe the process and result of implementing a validation framework on a model of a real airport terminal system with particular reference to its effectiveness in producing a valid model that can be used and understood by operational decision makers. In applying the proposed validation framework we demonstrate the overall validity of the Inbound Passenger Facilitation Model as well as the effectiveness of the validity framework itself.
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The legal arrangements for the management of water resources are currently a complex matrix of rules of various kinds. These rules perform a diverse range of functions. Some are part of what may be described as the macro-legal system for the governance of water resources. This includes paralegal rules in the form of statements of value, objective, outcome or principles . Others are part of the micro-legal system for the governance of water resources. This includes traditional legal rules in the form of statements of standards in relation to individual conduct, behaviour or decision making. These legal arrangements may be international, regional, national or local. Accordingly some apply to nation states within the international community. Others apply to the regulatory agencies making decisions about water resources within nation states. Ultimately most of these legal arrangements apply to those who use and develop water resources for particular purposes and in particular locations. In accordance with this framework, rules explain how water resources should be used in particular circumstances and how decisions should be made to ensure the effective planning and regulation of water resources.
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The ineffectiveness of current design processes has been well studied and has resulted in widespread calls for the evolution and development of new management processes. Even following the advent of BIM, we continue to move from one stage to another without necessarily having resolved all the issues. CAD design technology, if well handled, could have significantly raised the level of quality and efficiency of current processes, but in practice this was not fully realized. Therefore, technology alone can´t solve all the problems and the advent of BIM could result in a similar bottleneck. For a precise definition of the problem to be solved we should start by understanding what are the main current bottlenecks that have yet to be overcome by either new technologies or management processes, and the impact of human behaviour-related issues which impact the adoption and utilization of new technologies. The fragmented and dispersed nature of the AEC sector, and the huge number of small organizations that comprise it, are a major limiting factor. Several authors have addressed this issue and more recently IDDS has been defined as the highest level of achievement. However, what is written on IDDS shows an extremely ideal situation on a state to be achieved; it shows a holistic utopian proposition with the intent to create the research agenda to move towards that state. Key to IDDS is the framing of a new management model which should address the problems associated with key aspects: technology, processes, policies and people. One of the primary areas to be further studied is the process of collaborative work and understanding, together with the development of proposals to overcome the many cultural barriers that currently exist and impede the advance of new management methods. The purpose of this paper is to define and delimit problems to be solved so that it is possible to implement a new management model for a collaborative design process.
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In vivo osteochondral defect models predominantly consist of small animals, such as rabbits. Although they have an advantage of low cost and manageability, their joints are smaller and more easily healed compared with larger animals or humans. We hypothesized that osteochondral cores from large animals can be implanted subcutaneously in rats to create an ectopic osteochondral defect model for routine and high-throughput screening of multiphasic scaffold designs and/or tissue-engineered constructs (TECs). Bovine osteochondral plugs with 4 mm diameter osteochondral defect were fitted with novel multiphasic osteochondral grafts composed of chondrocyte-seeded alginate gels and osteoblast-seeded polycaprolactone scaffolds, prior to being implanted in rats subcutaneously with bone morphogenic protein-7. After 12 weeks of in vivo implantation, histological and micro-computed tomography analyses demonstrated that TECs are susceptible to mineralization. Additionally, there was limited bone formation in the scaffold. These results suggest that the current model requires optimization to facilitate robust bone regeneration and vascular infiltration into the defect site. Taken together, this study provides a proof-of-concept for a high-throughput osteochondral defect model. With further optimization, the presented hybrid in vivo model may address the growing need for a cost-effective way to screen osteochondral repair strategies before moving to large animal preclinical trials.