Identifying influential users of micro-blogging services : a dynamic action-based network approach

In this paper, we present a dynamic model to identify influential users of micro-blogging services. Micro-blogging services, such as Twitter, allow their users (twitterers) to publish tweets and choose to follow other users to receive tweets. Previous work on user influence on Twitter, concerns more on following link structure and the contents user published, seldom emphasizes the importance of interactions among users. We argue that, by emphasizing on user actions in micro-blogging platform, user influence could be measured more accurately. Since micro-blogging is a powerful social media and communication platform, identifying influential users according to user interactions has more practical meanings, e.g., advertisers may concern how many actions – buying, in this scenario – the influential users could initiate rather than how many advertisements they spread. By introducing the idea of PageRank algorithm, innovatively, we propose our model using action-based network which could capture the ability of influential users when they interacting with micro-blogging platform. Taking the evolving prosperity of micro-blogging into consideration, we extend our actionbaseduser influence model into a dynamic one, which could distinguish influential users in different time periods. Simulation results demonstrate that our models could support and give reasonable explanations for the scenarios that we considered.

Exploring the effect of political risks in large infrastructure projects in politically unstable countries using a probabilistic modelling approach

This research aims to explore and identify political risks on a large infrastructure project in an exaggerated environment to ascertain whether sufficient objective information can be gathered by project managers to utilise risk modelling techniques. During the study, the author proposes a new definition of political risk; performs a detailed project study of the Neelum Jhelum Hydroelectric Project in Pakistan; implements a probabilistic model using the principle of decomposition and Bayes probabilistic theorem and answers the question: was it possible for project managers to obtain all the relevant objective data to implement a probabilistic model?

A Gaussian pseudolikelihood approach for quantile regression with repeated measurements

To enhance the efficiency of regression parameter estimation by modeling the correlation structure of correlated binary error terms in quantile regression with repeated measurements, we propose a Gaussian pseudolikelihood approach for estimating correlation parameters and selecting the most appropriate working correlation matrix simultaneously. The induced smoothing method is applied to estimate the covariance of the regression parameter estimates, which can bypass density estimation of the errors. Extensive numerical studies indicate that the proposed method performs well in selecting an accurate correlation structure and improving regression parameter estimation efficiency. The proposed method is further illustrated by analyzing a dental dataset.