Ambient temperature and morbidity: A review of epidemiological evidence

OBJECTIVE: This paper reviews the epidemiological evidence on the relationship between ambient temperature and morbidity. It assesses the methodological issues in previous studies, and proposes future research directions. DATA SOURCES AND DATA EXTRACTION: We searched the PubMed database for epidemiological studies on ambient temperature and morbidity of non-communicable diseases published in refereed English journals prior to June 2010. 40 relevant studies were identified. Of these, 24 examined the relationship between ambient temperature and morbidity, 15 investigated the short-term effects of heatwave on morbidity, and 1 assessed both temperature and heatwave effects. DATA SYNTHESIS: Descriptive and time-series studies were the two main research designs used to investigate the temperature–morbidity relationship. Measurements of temperature exposure and health outcomes used in these studies differed widely. The majority of studies reported a significant relationship between ambient temperature and total or cause-specific morbidities. However, there were some inconsistencies in the direction and magnitude of non-linear lag effects. The lag effect of hot temperature on morbidity was shorter (several days) compared to that of cold temperature (up to a few weeks). The temperature–morbidity relationship may be confounded and/or modified by socio-demographic factors and air pollution. CONCLUSIONS: There is a significant short-term effect of ambient temperature on total and cause-specific morbidities. However, further research is needed to determine an appropriate temperature measure, consider a diverse range of morbidities, and to use consistent methodology to make different studies more comparable.

P2-486 Environmental temperature variation and morbidity: a meta-analysis

Extreme temperatures have been shown to have a detrimental effect on health. Hot temperatures can increase the risk of mortality, particularly in people suffering from cardiorespiratory diseases. Given the onset of climate change, it is critical that the impact of temperature on health is understood, so that effective public health strategies can correctly identify vulnerable groups within the population. However, while effects on mortality have been extensively studied, temperature–related morbidity has received less attention. This study applied a systematic review and meta–analysis to examine the current literature relating to hot temperatures and morbidity.

The role of soil characteristics on temperature sensitivity of soil organic matter

The uncertainty associated with how projected climate change will affect global C cycling could have a large impact on predictions of soil C stocks. The purpose of our study was to determine how various soil decomposition and chemistry characteristics relate to soil organic matter (SOM) temperature sensitivity. We accomplished this objective using long-term soil incubations at three temperatures (15, 25, and 35°C) and pyrolysis molecular beam mass spectrometry (py-MBMS) on 12 soils from 6 sites along a mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient (2–25.6°C). The Q10 values calculated from the CO2 respired during a long-term incubation using the Q10-q method showed decomposition of the more resistant fraction to be more temperature sensitive with a Q10-q of 1.95 ± 0.08 for the labile fraction and a Q10-q of 3.33 ± 0.04 for the more resistant fraction. We compared the fit of soil respiration data using a two-pool model (active and slow) with first-order kinetics with a three-pool model and found that the two and three-pool models statistically fit the data equally well. The three-pool model changed the size and rate constant for the more resistant pool. The size of the active pool in these soils, calculated using the two-pool model, increased with incubation temperature and ranged from 0.1 to 14.0% of initial soil organic C. Sites with an intermediate MAT and lowest C/N ratio had the largest active pool. Pyrolysis molecular beam mass spectrometry showed declines in carbohydrates with conversion from grassland to wheat cultivation and a greater amount of protected carbohydrates in allophanic soils which may have lead to differences found between the total amount of CO2 respired, the size of the active pool, and the Q10-q values of the soils.

Daily average temperature and mortality among the elderly : a meta-analysis and systematic review of epidemiological evidence

The impact of climate change on the health of vulnerable groups such as the elderly has been of increasing concern. However, to date there has been no meta-analysis of current literature relating to the effects of temperature fluctuations upon mortality amongst the elderly. We synthesised risk estimates of the overall impact of daily mean temperature on elderly mortality across different continents. A comprehensive literature search was conducted using MEDLINE and PubMed to identify papers published up to December 2010. Selection criteria including suitable temperature indicators, endpoints, study-designs and identification of threshold were used. A two-stage Bayesian hierarchical model was performed to summarise the percent increase in mortality with a 1°C temperature increase (or decrease) with 95% confidence intervals in hot (or cold) days, with lagged effects also measured. Fifteen studies met the eligibility criteria and almost 13 million elderly deaths were included in this meta-analysis. In total, there was a 2-5% increase for a 1°C increment during hot temperature intervals, and a 1-2 % increase in all-cause mortality for a 1°C decrease during cold temperature intervals. Lags of up to 9 days in exposure to cold temperature intervals were substantially associated with all-cause mortality, but no substantial lagged effects were observed for hot intervals. Thus, both hot and cold temperatures substantially increased mortality among the elderly, but the magnitude of heat-related effects seemed to be larger than that of cold effects within a global context.

The effect of various temperature indicators on different mortality categories in a subtropical city of Brisbane, Australia.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between temperature and mortality has been explored for decades and many temperature indicators have been applied separately. However, few data are available to show how the effects of different temperature indicators on different mortality categories, particularly in a typical subtropical climate. OBJECTIVE: To assess the associations between various temperature indicators and different mortality categories in Brisbane, Australia during 1996-2004. METHODS: We applied two methods to assess the threshold and temperature indicator for each age and death groups: mean temperature and the threshold assessed from all cause mortality was used for all mortality categories; the specific temperature indicator and the threshold for each mortality category were identified separately according to the minimisation of AIC. We conducted polynomial distributed lag non-linear model to identify effect estimates in mortality with one degree of temperature increase (or decrease) above (or below) the threshold on current days and lagged effects using both methods. RESULTS: Akaike's Information Criterion was minimized when mean temperature was used for all non-external deaths and deaths from 75 to 84 years; when minimum temperature was used for deaths from 0 to 64 years, 65-74 years, ≥ 85 years, and from the respiratory diseases; when maximum temperature was used for deaths from cardiovascular diseases. The effect estimates using certain temperature indicators were similar as mean temperature both for current day and lag effects. CONCLUSION: Different age groups and death categories were sensitive to different temperature indicators. However, the effect estimates from certain temperature indicators did not significantly differ from those of mean temperature.

Cost efficiency v quality service : using CHAT as a tool for understanding change and transformation in work practices

This chapter provides an analysis of feedback from key stakeholders, collected as part of a research project, on the problems and tensions evident in the collective work practices of learning advisers employed in learning assistance services at an Australian metropolitan university (Peach, 2003). The term 'learning assistance' is used in the Australian higher education sector generally to refer to student support services that include assistance with academic writing and other study skills. The aim of the study was to help learning advisers and other key stakeholders develop a better understanding of the work activity with a view to using this understanding to generate improvements in service provision. Over twenty problems and associated tensions were identified through stakeholder feedback however the focus of this chapter is the analysis of tensions related to a cluster of problems referred to as cost-efficiency versus quality service. Theoretical modelling derived from the tools made available through cultural historical activity theory and expansive visibilsation (Engestrom and Miettinen, 1999) and excerpts from data are used to illustrate how different understandings of the purpose of learning assistance services impacts on the work practices of learning advisers and creates problems and tensions in relation to the type of service available (including use of technology),level of service available, and learning adviser workload.

The influence of ambient temperature on birth outcomes in Brisbane, Australia

Lately, there has been increasing interest in the association between temperature and adverse birth outcomes including preterm birth (PTB) and stillbirth. PTB is a major predictor of many diseases later in life, and stillbirth is a devastating event for parents and families. The aim of this study was to assess the seasonal pattern of adverse birth outcomes, and to examine possible associations of maternal exposure to temperature with PTB and stillbirth. We also aimed to identify if there were any periods of the pregnancy where exposure to temperature was particularly harmful. A retrospective cohort study design was used and we retrieved individual birth records from the Queensland Health Perinatal Data Collection Unit for all singleton births (excluding twins and triplets) delivered in Brisbane between 1 July 2005 and 30 June 2009. We obtained weather data (including hourly relative humidity, minimum and maximum temperature) and air-pollution data (including PM10, SO2 and O3) from the Queensland Department of Environment and Resource Management. We used survival analyses with the time-dependent variables of temperature, humidity and air pollution, and the competing risks of stillbirth and live birth. To assess the monthly pattern of the birth outcomes, we fitted month of pregnancy as a time-dependent variable. We examined the seasonal pattern of the birth outcomes and the relationship between exposure to high or low temperatures and birth outcomes over the four lag weeks before birth. We further stratified by categorisation of PTB: extreme PTB (< 28 weeks of gestation), PTB (28–36 weeks of gestation), and term birth (≥ 37 weeks of gestation). Lastly, we examined the effect of temperature variation in each week of the pregnancy on birth outcomes. There was a bimodal seasonal pattern in gestation length. After adjusting for temperature, the seasonal pattern changed from bimodal, to only one peak in winter. The risk of stillbirth was statistically significant lower in March compared with January. After adjusting for temperature, the March trough was still statistically significant and there was a peak in risk (not statistically significant) in winter. There was an acute effect of temperature on gestational age and stillbirth with a shortened gestation for increasing temperature from 15 °C to 25 °C over the last four weeks before birth. For stillbirth, we found an increasing risk with increasing temperatures from 12 °C to approximately 20 °C, and no change in risk at temperatures above 20 °C. Certain periods of the pregnancy were more vulnerable to temperature variation. The risk of PTB (28–36 weeks of gestation) increased as temperatures increased above 21 °C. For stillbirth, the fetus was most vulnerable at less than 28 weeks of gestation, but there were also effects in 28–36 weeks of gestation. For fetuses of more than 37 weeks of gestation, increasing temperatures did not increase the risk of stillbirth. We did not find any adverse affects of cold temperature on birth outcomes in this cohort. My findings contribute to knowledge of the relationship between temperature and birth outcomes. In the context of climate change, this is particularly important. The results may have implications for public health policy and planning, as they indicate that pregnant women would decrease their risk of adverse birth outcomes by avoiding exposure to high temperatures and seeking cool environments during hot days.

Social Procurement: Promoting the sustainability of NPOs through the transformation of economic, social and cultural capital

Social procurement provides a key source of income for the Third Sector, and is vital for the sustainability of many nonprofit organisations. Social procurement involves the exchange of economic capital from one organisation, typically government (although for-profit and non-profit organisations can also purchase), with a nonprofit organisations in order to deliver other forms of. It is this transformation of economic capital into other forms of capital (cultural, human, social) in the social procurement process, which is the focus of this paper. Four case studies, which are representative of the four main types of social procurement, will be examined in order to trace how economic capital is transformed into other types of capital in each of these cases. In so doing, the paper will advance our understanding of social procurement theoretically, and lead to a wider discussion about the role of social procurement in ensuring the sustainability of nonprofit organisations, and the civil societies in which they operate.

The effect of various pH, ionic strength and temperature on papain hydrolysis of salivary film

Stimulated human whole saliva (WS) was used to study the dynamics of papain hydrolysis at defined pH, ionic strength and temperature with the view of reducing an acquired pellicle. A quartz crystal microbalance with dissipation (QCM-D) was used to monitor the changes in frequency due to enzyme hydrolysis of WS films and the hydrolytic parameters were calculated using an empirical model. The morphological and conformational changes of the salivary films before and after enzymatic hydrolysis were characterized by atomic force microscopy (AFM) imaging and grazing angle infrared spectroscopy (GA-FTIR) spectra, respectively. The characteristics of papain hydrolysis of WS films were pH-, ionic strength- and temperature-dependent. The WS films were partially removed by the action of enzyme, resulting thinner and smoother surfaces. The IR data suggested that hydrolysis-induced deformation did not occur onto the remnants salivary films. The processes of papain hydrolysis of WS films can be controlled by properly regulating pH, ionic strength and temperature.

Mixed convection laminar flow along a horizontal plate subject to streamwise sinusoidal surface temperature

Mixed convection of a two-dimensional laminar incompressible flow along a horizontal flat plate with streamwise sinusoidal surface temperature has been numerically investigated for different values of Rayleigh number and Reynolds number for constant values of Prandtl number, amplitude and frequency of periodic temperature. The numerical scheme is based on the finite element method adapted to rectangular non-uniform mesh elements by a non-linear parametric solution algorithm. The fluid considered in this study is air. The results are obtained for the Rayleigh number and Reynolds number ranging from 102 to 104 and 1 to 100, respectively, with constant physical properties for the fluid medium considered. Velocity and temperature profiles, streamlines, isotherms, and average Nusselt numbers are presented to observe the effect of the investigating parameters on fluid flow and heat transfer characteristics. The present results show that the convective phenomena are greatly influenced by the variation of Rayleigh numbers and Reynolds number.

Towards an orchestration theory in business transformation management (research in progress)

Business transformations are large-scale organisational change projects that, evidence suggests, are often unsuccessful. This study aims to develop a conceptual model that explains how management services that are required for a business transformation are orchestrated during such a initiative. We classify management services such as (but not limited to) change management, risk management, IT management, financial management, program management and so forth as bearing transformational and/or transactional capabilities in a transformation initiative. We then draw upon three principles of musical composition, namely melody, harmony and rhythm, and illustrate how they apply to the orchestration of management services in the management of business transformations. In order to illustrate our emerging model, we examine the case of Malaysia Airlines, who have managed to successfully turnaround the near-bankrupt organisation beyond survival. We demonstrate how the notions of melody, harmony and rhythm can be used to describe their endeavour. We conclude by discussing next steps of our research.

Low temperature CO sensitive nanostructured WO3 thin films doped with Fe

Nanostructured tungsten oxide thin film based gas sensors have been developed by thermal evaporation method to detect CO at low operating temperatures. The influence of Fe-doping and annealing heat treatment on microstructural and gas sensing properties of these films have been investigated. Fe was incorporated in WO3 film by co-evaporation and annealing was performed at 400oC for 2 hours in air. AFM analysis revealed a grain size of about 10-15 nm in all the films. GIXRD analysis showed that as-deposited films are amorphous and annealing at 400oC improved the crystallinity. Raman and XRD analysis indicated that Fe is incorporated in the WO3 matrix as a substitutional impurity, resulting in shorter O-W-O bonds and lattice cell parameters. Doping with Fe contributed significantly towards CO sensing performance of WO3 thin films. A good response to various concentrations (10-1000 ppm) of CO has been achieved with 400oC annealed Fe-doped WO3 film at a low operating temperature of 150oC.

A conceptual model to link deep customer insights to both growth opportunities and organisational strategy in SME’s as part of a design led transformation journey

Although Design Led Innovation activities aim to raise the value of design within the business, knowledge about which tools are available to support companies and how to apply them to make the connection between design for new product development and design as a strategic driver of growth is needed. This paper presents a conceptual method to supplement existing process and tools to assist companies to grow through design. The model extends the authors’ previous work to explore how through storytelling, customer observation can be captured and translated into new meaning, then creating new design propositions shaped into product needs, which can drive internal business activities, brand and the strategic vision. The paper contributes to a gap in the theoretical frameworks and literature by highlighting the need to align and scale design processes which match the needs of SME’s as they transition along a trajectory to become design led businesses.

Can transfer of learning be enriched by valuing knowledge transformation and co-creation? Exploring new ways to improve training design

This paper argues that a possible cause of issues with management education outcomes is the fact that most training models operate from a limited ‘transfer’ metaphor. This theoretical paper contends that by reconceptualising existing models, specifically Holton’s transfer of learning model, to incorporate multiple processes and acknowledge the importance of educator- or trainer-student interaction in co-creating knowledge, there is potential to improve training design and ultimately achieve more satisfactory training outcomes.

The identification and quantification of temperature-related mortality

The relationship between weather and mortality has been observed for centuries. Recently, studies on temperature-related mortality have become a popular topic as climate change continues. Most of the previous studies found that exposure to hot or cold temperature affects mortality. This study aims to address three research questions: 1. What is the overall effect of daily mean temperature variation on the elderly mortality in the published literature using a meta-analysis approach? 2. Does the association between temperature and mortality differ with age, sex, or socio-economic status in Brisbane? 3. How is the magnitude of the lag effects of the daily mean temperature on mortality varied by age and cause-of-death groups in Brisbane? In the meta-analysis, there was a 1-2 % increase in all-cause mortality for a 1ºC decrease during cold temperature intervals and a 2-5% increase for a 1ºC increment during hot temperature intervals among the elderly. Lags of up to 9 days in exposure to cold temperature intervals were statistically significantly associated with all-cause mortality, but no significant lag effects were observed for hot temperature intervals. In Brisbane, the harmful effect of high temperature (over 24ºC) on mortality appeared to be greater among the elderly than other age groups. The effect estimate among women was greater than among men. However, No evidence was found that socio-economic status modified the temperature-mortality relationship. The results of this research also show longer lag effects in cold days and shorter lag effects in hot days. For 3-day hot effects associated with 1°C increase above the threshold, the highest percent increases in mortality occurred among people aged 85 years or over (5.4% (95% CI: 1.4%, 9.5%)) compared with all age group (3.2% (95% CI: 0.9%, 5.6%)). The effect estimate among cardiovascular deaths was slightly higher than those among all-cause mortality. For overall 21-day cold effects associated with a 1°C decrease below the threshold, the percent estimates in mortality for people aged 85 years or over, and from cardiovascular diseases were 3.9% (95% CI: 1.9%, 6.0%) and 3.4% (95% CI: 0.9%, 6.0%), respectively compared with all age group (2.0% (95% CI: 0.7%, 3.3%)). Little research of this kind has been conducted in the Southern Hemisphere. This PhD research may contribute to the quantitative assessment of the overall impact, effect modification and lag effects of temperature variation on mortality in Australia and The findings may provide useful information for the development and implementation of public health policies to reduce and prevent temperature-related health problems.