Estimating present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the Australian coastline

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms, but exclusive of surface gravity waves. The study has been undertaken in two main stages. In the first stage, a high-resolution (~10 km along the coast) hydrodynamic depth averaged model has been configured for the whole coastline of Australia using the Danish Hydraulics Institute’s Mike21 modelling suite of tools. The model has been forced with astronomical tidal levels, derived from the TPX07.2 global tidal model, and meteorological fields, from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction’s global reanalysis, to generate a 61-year (1949 to 2009) hindcast of water levels. This model output has been validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites around Australia with long records. At each of the model grid points located around the coast, time series of annual maxima and the several highest water levels for each year were derived from the multi-decadal water level hindcast and have been fitted to extreme value distributions to estimate exceedance probabilities. Stage 1 provided a reliable estimate of the present day total water level exceedance probabilities around southern Australia, which is mainly impacted by extra-tropical storms. However, as the meteorological fields used to force the hydrodynamic model only weakly include the effects of tropical cyclones the resultant water levels exceedance probabilities were underestimated around western, northern and north-eastern Australia at higher return periods. Even if the resolution of the meteorological forcing was adequate to represent tropical cyclone-induced surges, multi-decadal periods yielded insufficient instances of tropical cyclones to enable the use of traditional extreme value extrapolation techniques. Therefore, in the second stage of the study, a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks and central pressures was developed using histroic observations. This model was then used to generate synthetic events that represented 10,000 years of cyclone activity for the Australia region, with characteristics based on the observed tropical cyclones over the last ~40 years. Wind and pressure fields, derived from these synthetic events using analytical profile models, were used to drive the hydrodynamic model to predict the associated storm surge response. A random time period was chosen, during the tropical cyclone season, and astronomical tidal forcing for this period was included to account for non-linear interactions between the tidal and surge components. For each model grid point around the coast, annual maximum total levels for these synthetic events were calculated and these were used to estimate exceedance probabilities. The exceedance probabilities from stages 1 and 2 were then combined to provide a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia.

The cost-effectiveness of total laparoscopic hysterectomy compared to total abdominal hysterectomy for the treatment of early stage endometrial cancer

Objective To summarise how costs and health benefits will change with the adoption of total laparoscopic hysterectomy compared to total abdominal hysterectomy for the treatment of early stage endometrial cancer. Design Cost-effectiveness modelling using the information from a randomised controlled trial. Participants Two hypothetical modelled cohorts of 1000 individuals undergoing total laparoscopic hysterectomy and total abdominal hysterectomy. Outcome measures Surgery costs; hospital bed days used; total healthcare costs; quality-adjusted life years; and net monetary benefits. Results For 1000 individuals receiving total laparoscopic hysterectomy surgery, the costs were $509 575 higher, 3548 hospital fewer bed days were used and total health services costs were reduced by $3 746 221. There were 39.13 more quality-adjusted life years for a 5 year period following surgery. Conclusions The adoption of total laparoscopic hysterectomy is almost certainly a good decision for health services policy makers. There is 100% probability that it will be cost saving to health services, a 86.8% probability that it will increase health benefits and a 99.5% chance that it returns net monetary benefits greater than zero.

Modelling total duration of traffic incidents including incident detection and recovery time

Traffic incidents are key contributors to non-recurrent congestion, potentially generating significant delay. Factors that influence the duration of incidents are important to understand so that effective mitigation strategies can be implemented. To identify and quantify the effects of influential factors, a methodology for studying total incident duration based on historical data from an ‘integrated database’ is proposed. Incident duration models are developed using a selected freeway segment in the Southeast Queensland, Australia network. The models include incident detection and recovery time as components of incident duration. A hazard-based duration modelling approach is applied to model incident duration as a function of a variety of factors that influence traffic incident duration. Parametric accelerated failure time survival models are developed to capture heterogeneity as a function of explanatory variables, with both fixed and random parameters specifications. The analysis reveals that factors affecting incident duration include incident characteristics (severity, type, injury, medical requirements, etc.), infrastructure characteristics (roadway shoulder availability), time of day, and traffic characteristics. The results indicate that event type durations are uniquely different, thus requiring different responses to effectively clear them. Furthermore, the results highlight the presence of unobserved incident duration heterogeneity as captured by the random parameter models, suggesting that additional factors need to be considered in future modelling efforts.

Total factor productivity growth and convergence in the petroleum industry : empirical analysis testing for convexity

While economic theory acknowledges that some features of technology (e.g., indivisibilities, economies of scale and specialization) can fundamentally violate the traditional convexity assumption, almost all empirical studies accept the convexity property on faith. In this contribution, we apply two alternative flexible production technologies to measure total factor productivity growth and test the significance of the convexity axiom using a nonparametric test of closeness between unknown distributions. Based on unique field level data on the petroleum industry, the empirical results reveal significant differences, indicating that this production technology is most likely non-convex. Furthermore, we also show the impact of convexity on answers to traditional convergence questions in the productivity growth literature.

Genotoxicity of inorganic mercury salts based on disturbed microtubule function

This study investigated the hypothesis that the chromosomal genotoxicity of inorganic mercury results from interaction(s) with cytoskeletal proteins. Effects of Hg2+ salts on functional activities of tubulin and kinesin were investigated by determining tubulin assembly and kinesin-driven motility in cell-free systems. Hg2+ inhibits microtubule assembly at concentrations above 1 μM, and inhibition is complete at about 10 μM. In this range, the tubulin assembly is fully (up to 6 μM) or partially (∼6-10 μM) reversible. The inhibition of tubulin assembly by mercury is independent of the anion, chloride or nitrate. The no-observed-effect- concentration for inhibition of microtubule assembly in vitro was 1 μM Hg2+, the IC50 5.8 μM. Mercury(II) salts at the IC 50 concentrations partly inhibiting tubulin assembly did not cause the formation of aberrant microtubule structures. Effects of mercury salts on the functionality of the microtubule motility apparatus were studied with the motor protein kinesin. By using a "gliding assay" mimicking intracellular movement and transport processes in vitro, HgCl2 affected the gliding velocity of paclitaxel-stabilised microtubules in a clear dose-dependent manner. An apparent effect is detected at a concentration of 0.1 μM and a complete inhibition is reached at 1 μM. Cytotoxicity of mercury chloride was studied in V79 cells using neutral red uptake, showing an influence above 17 μM HgCl2. Between 15 and 20 μM HgCl2 there was a steep increase in cell toxicity. Both mercury chloride and mercury nitrate induced micronuclei concentration-dependently, starting at concentrations above 0.01 μM. CREST analyses on micronuclei formation in V79 cells demonstrated both clastogenic (CREST-negative) and aneugenic effects of Hg2+, with some preponderance of aneugenicity. A morphological effect of high Hg2+ concentrations (100 μM HgCl2) on the microtubule cytoskeleton was verified in V79 cells by immuno-fluorescence staining. The overall data are consistent with the concept that the chromosomal genotoxicity could be due to interaction of Hg2+ with the motor protein kinesin mediating cellular transport processes. Interactions of Hg 2+ with the tubulin shown by in vitro investigations could also partly influence intracellular microtubule functions leading, together with the effects on the kinesin, to an impaired chromosome distribution as shown by the micronucleus test.

Disturbed microtubule function and induction of micronuclei by chelate complexes of mercury(II)

Interactions of mercury(II) with the microtubule network of cells may lead to genotoxicity. Complexation of mercury(II) with EDTA is currently being discussed for its employment in detoxification processes of polluted sites. This prompted us to re-evaluate the effects of such complexing agents on certain aspects of mercury toxicity, by examining the influences of mercury(II) complexes on tubulin assembly and kinesin-driven motility of microtubules. The genotoxic effects were studied using the micronucleus assay in V79 Chinese hamster fibroblasts. Mercury(II) complexes with EDTA and related chelators interfered dose-dependently with tubulin assembly and microtubule motility in vitro. The no-effect-concentration for assembly inhibition was 1 μM of complexed Hg(II), and for inhibition of motility it was 0.05 μM, respectively. These findings are supported on the genotoxicity level by the results of the micronucleus assay, with micronuclei being induced dose-dependently starting at concentrations of about 0.05 μM of complexed Hg(II). Generally, the no-effect-concentrations for complexed mercury(II) found in the cell-free systems and in cellular assays (including the micronucleus test) were identical with or similar to results for mercury tested in the absence of chelators. This indicates that mercury(II) has a much higher affinity to sulfhydryls of cytoskeletal proteins than to this type of complexing agents. Therefore, the suitability of EDTA and related compounds for remediation of environmental mercury contamination or for other detoxification purposes involving mercury has to be questioned.

Can measures of limb loading and dynamic stability during the squat maneuver provide an index of early functional recovery following unilateral total hip arthroplasty?

Objective: To investigate limb loading and dynamic stability during squatting in the early functional recovery of total hip arthroplasty (THA) patients. Design: Cohort study Setting: Inpatient rehabilitation clinic. Participants: A random sample of 61 THA patients (34♂/27♀; 62±9 yrs, 77±14 kg, 174±9 cm) was assessed twice, 13.2±3.8 days (PRE) and 26.6±3.3 days post-surgery (POST), and compared with a healthy reference group (REF) (22♂/16♀; 47±12yrs; 78±20kg; 175±10cm). Interventions: THA patients received two weeks of standard in-patient rehabilitation. Main Outcome Measure(s): Inter-limb vertical force distribution and dynamic stability during the squat maneuver, as defined by the root mean square (RMS) of the center of pressure in antero-posterior and medio-lateral directions, of operated (OP) and non-operated (NON)limbs. Self-reported function was assessed via FFb-H-OA 2.0 questionnaire. Results: At PRE, unloading of the OP limb was 15.8% greater (P<.001, d=1.070) and antero-posterior and medio-lateral center of pressure RMS were 30-34% higher in THA than REF P<.05). Unloading was reduced by 12.8% towards a more equal distribution from PRE to POST (P<.001, d=0.874). Although medio-lateral stability improved between PRE and POST (OP: 14.8%, P=.024, d=0.397; NON: 13.1%, P=.015, d=0.321), antero-posterior stability was not significantly different. Self-reported physical function improved by 15.8% (P<.001, d=0.965). Conclusion(s): THA patients unload the OP limb and are dynamically more unstable during squatting in the early rehabilitation phase following total hip replacement than healthy adults. Although loading symmetry and medio-lateral stability improved to the level of healthy adults with rehabilitation, antero-posterior stability remained impaired. Measures of dynamic stability and load symmetry during squatting provide quantitative information that can be used to clinically monitor early functional recovery from THA.

CORR Insights® : loss of cement-bone interlock in retrieved tibial components from total knee arthroplasties

Most surgeons cement the tibial component in total knee replacement surgery. Mid-term registry data from a number of countries, including those from the United Kingdom and Australia, support the excellent survivorship of cemented tibial components. In spite of this success, results can always be improved, and cementing technique can play a role. Cementing technique on the tibia is not standardized, and surgeons still differ about the best ways to deliver cement into the cancellous bone of the upper tibia. Questions remain regarding whether to use a gun or a syringe to inject the cement into the cancellous bone of the tibial plateau . The ideal cement penetration into the tibial plateau is debated, though most reports suggest that 4 mm to 10 mm is ideal. Thicker mantles are thought to be dangerous due to the risk of bone necrosis, but there is little in the literature to support this contention...

The effect of knee flexion contracture following total knee arthroplasty on the energy cost of walking.

This study evaluated the energy cost of walking (Cw) with knee flexion contractures (FC) simulated with a knee brace, in total knee arthroplasty (TKA) recipients (n=16) and normal controls (n=15), and compared it to baseline (no brace). There was no significant difference in Cw between the groups at baseline but TKA recipients walked slower (P=0.048) and with greater knee flexion in this condition (P=0.003). Simulated FC significantly increased Cw in both groups (TKA P=0.020, control P=0.002) and this occurred when FC exceeded 20° in the TKA group and 15° in the controls. Reported perceived exertion was only significantly increased by FC in the control group (control P<0.001, TKA P=0.058). Simulated knee FCs less than 20° do not increase Cw or perceived exertion in TKA recipients.

Gold nanospikes based microsensor as a highly accurate mercury emission monitoring system

Anthropogenic elemental mercury (Hg0) emission is a serious worldwide environmental problem due to the extreme toxicity of the heavy metal to humans, plants and wildlife. Development of an accurate and cheap microsensor based online monitoring system which can be integrated as part of Hg0 removal and control processes in industry is still a major challenge. Here, we demonstrate that forming Au nanospike structures directly onto the electrodes of a quartz crystal microbalance (QCM) using a novel electrochemical route results in a self-regenerating, highly robust, stable, sensitive and selective Hg0 vapor sensor. The data from a 127 day continuous test performed in the presence of volatile organic compounds and high humidity levels, showed that the sensor with an electrodeposted sensitive layer had 260% higher response magnitude, 3.4 times lower detection limit (,22 mg/m3 or ,2.46 ppbv) and higher accuracy (98% Vs 35%) over a Au control based QCM (unmodified) when exposed to a Hg0 vapor concentration of 10.55 mg/m3 at 1016C. Statistical analysis of the long term data showed that the nano-engineered Hg0 sorption sites on the developed Au nanospikes sensitive layer play a critical role in the enhanced sensitivity and selectivity of the developed sensor towards Hg0 vapor.

Functional adaptation and rehabilitation following total knee replacement

This research project evaluated the biomechanical and functional outcomes of patients following total knee replacement measured at 6 and 12 months following surgery. Using more objective measures, patients were examined to determine changes in biomechanical and neuromuscular function during performance of activities of daily living such as walking, stair climbing and turning. Adaptations in joint positioning and performance were identified and progressive improvements were made in some areas of locomotor function. The findings of the study provided important objective information to contribute to the design and evaluation of prostheses, new surgical and rehabilitation procedures and improved recovery of patients.

Quantification of the total neuronal structure of the fear conditioning circuit of the lateral amygdala of the rat

During Pavlovian auditory fear conditioning a previously neutral auditory stimulus (CS) gains emotional significance through pairing with a noxious unconditioned stimulus (US). These associations are believed to be formed by way of plasticity at auditory input synapses on principal neurons in the lateral nucleus of the amygdala (LA). In order to begin to understand how fear memories are stored and processed by synaptic changes in the LA, we have quantified both the entire neural number and the sub-cellular structure of LA principal neurons.We first used stereological cell counting methods on Gimsa or GABA immunostained rat brain. We identified 60,322+/-1408 neurons in the LA unilaterally (n=7). Of these 16,917+/-471 were GABA positive. The intercalated nuclei were excluded from the counts and thus GABA cells are believed to represent GABAergic interneurons. The sub-nuclei of the LA were also independently counted. We then quantified the morphometric properties of in vitro electrophysiologically identified principal neurons of the LA, corrected for shrinkage in xyz planes. The total dendritic length was 9.97+/-2.57mm, with 21+/-4 nodes (n=6). Dendritic spine density was 0.19+/-0.03 spines/um (n=6). Intra-LA axon collaterals had a bouton density of 0.1+/-0.02 boutons/um (n=5). These data begin to reveal the finite cellular and sub-cellular processing capacity of the lateral amygdala, and should facilitate efforts to understand mechanisms of plasticity in LA.

Developments of the total entropy utility function for the dual purpose of model discrimination and parameter estimation in Bayesian design

The total entropy utility function is considered for the dual purpose of Bayesian design for model discrimination and parameter estimation. A sequential design setting is proposed where it is shown how to efficiently estimate the total entropy utility for a wide variety of data types. Utility estimation relies on forming particle approximations to a number of intractable integrals which is afforded by the use of the sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for Bayesian inference. A number of motivating examples are considered for demonstrating the performance of total entropy in comparison to utilities for model discrimination and parameter estimation. The results suggest that the total entropy utility selects designs which are efficient under both experimental goals with little compromise in achieving either goal. As such, the total entropy utility is advocated as a general utility for Bayesian design in the presence of model uncertainty.

Total transcriptome, proteome, and allergome of Johnson grass pollen, which is important for allergic rhinitis in subtropical regions

Background Genomic data are lacking for many allergen sources. To circumvent this limitation, we implemented a strategy to reveal the repertoire of pollen allergens of a grass with clinical importance in subtropical regions, where an increasing proportion of the world's population resides. Objective We sought to identify and immunologically characterize the allergenic components of the Panicoideae Johnson grass pollen (JGP; Sorghum halepense). Methods The total pollen transcriptome, proteome, and allergome of JGP were documented. Serum IgE reactivities with pollen and purified allergens were assessed in 64 patients with grass pollen allergy from a subtropical region. Results Purified Sor h 1 and Sor h 13 were identified as clinically important allergen components of JGP with serum IgE reactivity in 49 (76%) and 28 (43.8%), respectively, of patients with grass pollen allergy. Within whole JGP, multiple cDNA transcripts and peptide spectra belonging to grass pollen allergen families 1, 2, 4, 7, 11, 12, 13, and 25 were identified. Pollen allergens restricted to subtropical grasses (groups 22-24) were also present within the JGP transcriptome and proteome. Mass spectrometry confirmed the IgE-reactive components of JGP included isoforms of Sor h 1, Sor h 2, Sor h 13, and Sor h 23. Conclusion Our integrated molecular approach revealed qualitative differences between the allergenic components of JGP and temperate grass pollens. Knowledge of these newly identified allergens has the potential to improve specific diagnosis and allergen immunotherapy treatment for patients with grass pollen allergy in subtropical regions and reduce the burden of allergic respiratory disease globally.