The jump component of S&P 500 volatility and the VIX index

Much research has investigated the differences between option implied volatilities and econometric model-based forecasts. Implied volatility is a market determined forecast, in contrast to model-based forecasts that employ some degree of smoothing of past volatility to generate forecasts. Implied volatility has the potential to reflect information that a model-based forecast could not. This paper considers two issues relating to the informational content of the S&P 500 VIX implied volatility index. First, whether it subsumes information on how historical jump activity contributed to the price volatility, followed by whether the VIX reflects any incremental information pertaining to future jump activity relative to model-based forecasts. It is found that the VIX index both subsumes information relating to past jump contributions to total volatility and reflects incremental information pertaining to future jump activity. This issue has not been examined previously and expands our understanding of how option markets form their volatility forecasts.

The relationship between implied and realized volatility : evidence from the Australian stock index option market

This paper examines the relationship between the volatility implied in option prices and the subsequently realized volatility by using the S&P/ASX 200 index options (XJO) traded on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) during a period of 5 years. Unlike stock index options such as the S&P 100 index options in the US market, the S&P/ASX 200 index options are traded infrequently and in low volumes, and have a long maturity cycle. Thus an errors-in-variables problem for measurement of implied volatility is more likely to exist. After accounting for this problem by instrumental variable method, it is found that both call and put implied volatilities are superior to historical volatility in forecasting future realized volatility. Moreover, implied call volatility is nearly an unbiased forecast of future volatility.

The power of a single prototype : sustainable fashion textile design and the prevention of carcinogenic melanoma

Is there a role for prototyping (sketching, pattern making and sampling) in addressing real world problems of sustainability (People, Profit, and Planet), in this case social/healthcare issues, through fashion and textiles research? Skin cancer and related illnesses are a major cause of disfigurement and death in New Zealand and Australia where the rates of Melanoma, a serious form of skin cancer, are four times higher than in the Northern Hemisphere regions of USA, UK and Canada (IARC, 1992). In 2007, AUT University (Auckland University of Technology) Fashion Department and the Health Promotion Department of Cancer Society - Auckland Division (CSA) developed a prototype hat aimed at exploring a barrier type solution to prevent facial and neck skin damage. This is a paradigm shift from the usual medical research model. This paper provides an overview of the project and examines how a fashion prototype has been used to communicate emergent social, environmental, personal, physiological and technological concerns to the trans-disciplinary research team. The authors consider how the design of a product can enhance and support sustainable design practice while contributing a potential solution to an ongoing health issue. Analysis of this case study provides an insight into prototyping in fashion and textiles design, user engagement and the importance of requirements analysis in relation to sustainable development. The analysis and a successful outcome of the final prototype have provided a gateway to future collaborative research and product development.

The land use and public transport accessibility index : phase two final report

The Urban Research Program (URP) was established in 2003 as strategic research and community engagement initiative of Griffith University. The strategic foci of the Urban Research Program are research and advocacy in an urban regional context. The Urban Research Program seeks to improve understanding of, and develop innovative responses to Australia's urban challenges and opportunities by providing training assistance. The authors aim to make the results of their research and advocacy work available as freely and widely as possible.

Protecting the protectors : legal liabilities from the use of Web 2.0 for Australian disaster response

The traditional model for information dissemination in disaster response is unidirectional from official channels to the public. However recent crises in the US, such as Hurricane Katrina and the Californian Bushfires show that civilians are now turning to Web 2.0 technologies as a means of sharing disaster related information. These technologies present enormous potential benefits to disaster response authorities that cannot be overlooked. In Australia, the Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission has recently recommended that Australian disaster response authorities utilize information technologies to improve the dissemination of disaster related, bushfire information. However, whilst the use of these technologies has many positive attributes, potential legal liabilities for disaster response authorities arise. This paper identifies some potential legal liabilities arising from the use of Web 2.0 technologies in disaster response situations thereby enhancing crisis related information sharing by highlighting legal concerns that need to be addressed.

If it's encrypted it's secure! The viability of US state-based encryption exemptions

US state-based data breach notification laws have unveiled serious corporate and government failures regarding the security of personal information. These laws require organisations to notify persons who may be affected by an unauthorized acquisition of their personal information. Safe harbours to notification exist if personal information is encrypted. Three types of safe harbour have been identified in the literature: exemptions, rebuttable presumptions and factors. The underlying assumption of exemptions is that encrypted personal information is secure and therefore unauthorized access does not pose a risk. However, the viability of this assumption is questionable when examined against data breaches involving encrypted information and the demanding practical requirements of effective encryption management. Recent recommendations by the Australian Law Reform Commission (ALRC) would amend the Privacy Act 1988 (Cth) to implement a data breach scheme that includes a different type of safe harbour, factor based analysis. The authors examine the potential capability of the ALRC’s proposed encryption safe harbour in relation to the US experience at the state legislature level.

Telephone reliability of the Frenchay Activity Index and EQ-5D amongst older adults

Background Older adults may find it problematic to attend hospital appointments due to the difficulty associated with travelling to, within and from a hospital facility for the purpose of a face-to-face assessment. This study aims to investigate equivalence between telephone and face-to-face administration for the Frenchay Activities Index (FAI) and the Euroqol-5D (EQ-5D) generic health-related quality of life instrument amongst an older adult population. Methods Patients aged >65 (n = 53) who had been discharged to the community following an acute hospital admission underwent telephone administration of the FAI and EQ-5D instruments seven days prior to attending a hospital outpatient appointment where they completed a face-to-face administration of these instruments. Results Overall, 40 subjects' datasets were complete for both assessments and included in analysis. The FAI items had high levels of agreement between the two modes of administration (item kappa's ranged 0.73 to 1.00) as did the EQ-5D (item kappa's ranged 0.67–0.83). For the FAI, EQ-5D VAS and EQ-5D utility score, intraclass correlation coefficients were 0.94, 0.58 and 0.82 respectively with paired t-tests indicating no significant systematic difference (p = 0.100, p = 0.690 and p = 0.290 respectively). Conclusion Telephone administration of the FAI and EQ-5D instruments provides comparable results to face-to-face administration amongst older adults deemed to have cognitive functioning intact at a basic level, indicating that this is a suitable alternate approach for collection of this information.

Validating the functional capacity index : a comparison of predicted versus observed total body scores

Background: The Functional Capacity Index (FCI) was designed to predict physical function 12 months after injury. We report a validation study of the FCI. Methods: This was a consecutive case series registered in the Queensland Trauma Registry who consented to the prospective 12-month telephone-administered follow-up study. FCI scores measured at 12 months were compared with those originally predicted. Results: Complete Abbreviated Injury Scale score information was available for 617 individuals, of whom 587 (95%) could be assigned at least one FCI score (range, 1-17). Agreement between the largest predicted FCI and observed FCI score was poor ([kappa] = 0.05; 95% confidence interval, 0.00-0.10) and explained only 1% of the variability in observed FCI. Using an encompassing model that included all FCI assignments, agreement remained poor ([kappa] = 0.05; 95% confidence interval, -0.02-0.12), and the model explained only 9% of the variability in observed FCI. Conclusion: The predicted functional capacity poorly agrees with actual functional outcomes. Further research should consider including other (noninjury) explanatory factors in predicting FCI at 12 months.

Gifted young adolescents and email : developing a personal language of self

This paper reports on the use of email as a means to access the self-constructions of gifted young adolescents. Australian research shows that gifted young adolescents may feel more lonely and misunderstood than their same-age counterparts, yet they are seldom asked about their lives. Emerging use of online methods as a means of access to individual lives and perceptions has demonstrated the potential offered by the creation of digital texts as narrative data. Details are given of a qualitative study that engaged twelve children aged between 10 and 14 years, who were screened for giftedness, in a project involving the generation of emailed journal entries sent over a period of 6 months. With emphasis on participatory principles, individual young adolescents produced self-managed journal entries that were written and sent to the researcher from personal computers outside the school setting. Drawing from a theoretical understanding of self as constructed within dialogic relationships, the digital setting of email is proposed as a narrative space that fosters healthy self-disclosure. This paper outlines the benefits of using email as a means to explore emotions, promote reflective accounts of self and support the development of a personal language for self-expression. Individual excerpts will be presented to show that the harnessing of personal narratives within an email context has potential to yield valuable insights into the emotions, personal realities and experiences of gifted young adolescents. Findings will be presented to show that the co-construction of self-expressive and explanatory narratives supported by a facilitative adult listener promoted healthy self-awareness amongst participants. This paper contributes to appreciative conversations about using online methods as a flexible and practical avenue for conducting educational research. Furthermore, digital writing in email form will be presented as having distinct advantages over face-to-face methods when utilised with gifted young adolescents who may be unwilling to disclose information within school-based settings.

Building Indigenous research capacity : a personal perspective

The International Network of Indigenous Health Knowledge and Development (INIHKD) Conference was held from Monday 24 May to Friday 28 May 2010 at Kiana Lodge, Port Madison Indian Reservation, Suquamish Nation, Washington State, United States of America. The overall theme for the 4th Biennial Conference was ‘Knowing Our Roots: Indigenous Medicines, Health Knowledges and Best Practices’.

Osteoarthritis Index delivered by mobile phone (m-WOMAC) is valid, reliable, and responsive

Objectives: To evaluate the validity, reliability and responsiveness of EDC using the WOMAC® NRS 3.1 Index on Motorola V3 mobile phones. ---------- Methods: Patients with osteoarthritis (OA) undergoing primary unilateral hip or knee joint replacement surgery were assessed pre-operatively and 3-4 months post-operatively. Patients completed the WOMAC® Index in paper (p-WOMAC®) and electronic (m-WOMAC®) format in random order. ---------- Results: 24 men and 38 women with hip and knee OA participated and successfully completed the m-WOMAC® questionnaire. Pearson correlations between the summated total index scores for the p-WOMAC® and m-WOMAC® pre- and post-surgery were 0.98 and 0.99 (p<0.0001). There was no clinically important or statistically significant between-method difference in the adjusted total summated scores, pre- and post-surgery (adjusted mean difference = 4.44, p = 0.474 and 1.73, p = 0.781). Internal consistency estimates of m-WOMAC® reliability were 0.87 – 0.98. The m-WOMAC® detected clinically important, statistically significant (p<0.0001) improvements in pain, stiffness, function and total index score. ---------- Conclusions: Sixty-two patients with hip and knee OA successfully completed EDC by Motorola V3 mobile phone using the m-WOMAC® NRS3.1 Index; completion times averaging only 1-1.5 minutes longer than the p-WOMAC® Index. Data were successfully and securely transmitted from patients in Australia to a server in the USA. There was close agreement and no significant differences between m-WOMAC® and p-WOMAC® scores. This study confirms the validity, reliability and responsiveness of the Exco InTouch engineered, Java-based m-WOMAC® Index application. EDC with the m-WOMAC® Index provides unique opportunities for using quantitative measurement in clinical research and practice.

The carrying capacity imperative : assessing regional carrying capacity methodologies for sustainable land-use planning

The global impact of an ever-increasing population-base combined with dangerously depleted natural resources highlights the urgent need for changes in human lifestyles and land-use patterns. To achieve more equitable and sustainable land use, it is imperative that populations live within the carrying capacity of their natural assets in a manner more accountable to and ethically responsible for the land which sustains them. Our society’s very survival may well depend on worldwide acceptance of the carrying capacity imperative as a principle of personal, political, economic, educational and planning responsibility. This theoretically-focused research identifies, examines and compares a range of methodological approaches to carrying capacity assessment and considers their relevance to future spatial planning. It also addresses existing gaps in current methodologies and suggests avenues for improvement. A set of eleven key criteria are employed to compare various existing carrying capacity assessment models. These criteria include whole-systems analysis, dynamic responses, levels of impact and risk, systemic constraints, applicability to future planning and the consideration of regional and local boundary delineation. This research finds that while some existing methodologies offer significant insights into the assessment of population carrying capacities, a comprehensive model is yet to be developed. However, it is suggested that by combining successful components from various authors, and collecting a range of interconnected data, a practical and workable systems-based model may be achievable in the future.

Performing for (and against) the microphone : personal takes : producing a credible vocal

This contribution proposes the effect of the studio practice compiling vocals from many takes on the performance of vocalists.

Results from the farm

This paper reports on a large, long-term mobile wireless sensor network deployment. The trial was part of an animal study involving 45 animals. During the trial, 15 animals were equipped with wireless sensor nodes for a week. The paper discusses various issues with such a deployment including electronic design, software design, animal ethics clearance, logistics, and wearable computing equipment for animals. The paper also presents some preliminary analysis of the data obtained from the deployment, both from the perspective of network parameters and animal movement behavior.

Specifying and enforcing a fine-grained information flow policy : model and experiments

In this paper we present a model for defining and enforcing a fine-grained information flow policy. We describe how the policy can be enforced on a typical computer and present experiments using the proposed model. A key feature of the model is that it allows the expression of rules which detail precisely which information elements are allowed to mix together. For example, the model allows the expression of a policy which forbids a doctor from mixing the personal medical details of the patients. The enforcement mechanisms tracks and records information flows within the system so that dynamic changes to the policy can be made with respect to information elements which may have propagated to different locations in the system.