Substance-related expectancies among men who have sex with men : development of psychometric tools to predict unprotected sexual activity

Significant research has demonstrated direct and indirect associations between substance use and sexual behaviour. Substance use is related to sexual risk-taking and HIV seroconversion among some substance-using MSM. It remains unclear what factors mediate or underlie this relationship, and which substances are associated with greater harm. Substance-related expectancies are hypothesised as potential mechanisms. A conceptual model based on social-cognitive theory was tested, which explores the role of demographic factors, substance use, substance-related expectancies and novelty-seeking personality characteristics in predicting unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) while under the influence, across four commonly used substance types. Phase 1, a qualitative study (N = 20), explored how MSM perceive the effects of substance use on their thoughts, feelings and behaviours, including sexual behaviours. Information was attained through discussion and interviews, resulting in the establishment of key themes. Results indicated MSM experience a wide range of reinforcing aspects associated with substance use. General and specific effects were evident across substance types, and were associated with sexual behaviour and sexual risk-taking. Phase 2 consisted of developing a comprehensive profile of substance-related expectancies for MSM (SEP-MSM) regarding alcohol, cannabis, amyl nitrite and stimulants that possessed sound psychometric properties and was appropriate for use among this group. A cross-sectional questionnaire with 249 participants recruited through gay community networks was used to validate these measures, and involved online data collection, participants rating expectancy items and subsequent factor analysis. Results indicated expectancies can be reliably assessed, and predicted substance use patterns. Phase 3 examined demographic factors, substance use, substance-related expectancies, and novelty-seeking traits among another community sample of MSM (N = 277) throughout Australia, in predicting UAI while under the influence. Using a cross-sectional design, participants were recruited through gay community networks and completed online questionnaires. The SEP-MSM, and associated substance use, predicted UAI. This research extends social-cognitive theory regarding sexual behaviour, and advances understanding of the role of expectancies associated with substance use and sexual risk-taking. Future applications of the SEP-MSM in health promotion, prevention, clinical interventions and research are likely to contribute to reducing harm associated with substance-using MSM (e.g., HIV transmission).

The risk of airborne influenza transmission in passenger cars

Travel in passenger cars is a ubiquitous aspect of the daily activities of many people. During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic a case of probable transmission during car travel was reported in Australia, to which spread via the airborne route may have contributed. However, there are no data to indicate the likely risks of such events, and how they may vary and be mitigated. To address this knowledge gap, we estimated the risk of airborne influenza transmission in two cars (1989 model and 2005 model) by employing ventilation measurements and a variation of the Wells-Riley model. Results suggested that infection risk can be reduced by not recirculating air; however, estimated risk ranged from 59 to 99.9% for a 90 min trip when air was recirculated in the newer vehicle. These results have implications for interrupting in-car transmission of other illnesses spread by the airborne route.

Development of novel vaccine strategies to prevent genital tract chlamydial infections

Chlamydia trachomatis is the most prevalent bacterial sexually transmitted infection in the developed world and the leading cause of preventable blindness worldwide. As reported by the World Health Organization in 2001, there are approximately 92 million new infections detected annually, costing health systems billions of dollars to treat not only the acute infection, but also to treat infection-associated sequelae. The majority of genital infections are asymptomatic, with 50-70% going undetected. Genital tract infections can be easily treated with antibiotics when detected. Lack of treatment can lead to the development of pelvic inflammatory disease, ectopic pregnancies and tubal factor infertility in women and epididymitis and prostatitis in men. With infection rates on the continual rise and the large number of infections going undetected, there is a need to develop an efficacious vaccine which prevents not only infection, but also the development of infection-associated pathology. Before a vaccine can be developed and administered, the pathogenesis of chlamydial infections needs to be fully understood. This includes the kinetics of ascending infection and the effects of inoculating dose on ascension and development of pathology. The first aim in this study was to examine these factors in a murine model. Female BALB/c mice were infected intravaginally with varying doses of C. muridarum, the mouse variant of human C. trachomatis, and the ascension of infection along the reproductive tract and the time-course of infection-associated pathology development, including inflammatory cell infiltration, pyosalpinx and hydrosalpinx, were determined. It was found that while the inoculating dose did affect the rate and degree of infection, it did not affect any of the pathological parameters examined. This highlighted that the sexual transmission dose may have minimal effect on the development of reproductive sequelae. The results of the first section enabled further studies presented here to use an optimal inoculating dose that would ascend the reproductive tract and cause pathology development, so that vaccine efficacy could be determined. There has been a large amount of research into the development of an efficacious vaccine against genital tract chlamydial infections, with little success. However, there have been no studies examining the effects of the timing of vaccination, including the effects of vaccination during an active genital infection, or after clearance of a previous infection. These are important factors that need to be examined, as it is not yet known whether immunization will enhance not only the individual's immune response, but also pathology development. It is also unknown whether any enhancement of the immune responses will cause the Chlamydia to enter a dormant, persistent state, and possibly further enhance any pathology development. The second section of this study aimed to determine if vaccination during an active genital tract infection, or after clearance of a primary infection, enhanced the murine immune responses and whether any enhanced or reduced pathology occurred. Naïve, actively infected, or previously infected animals were immunized intranasally or transcutaneously with the adjuvants cholera toxin and CpG-ODN in combination with either the major outer membrane protein (MOMP) of C. muridarum, or MOMP and ribonucleotide reductase small chain protein (NrdB) of C. muridarum. It was found that the systemic immune responses in actively or previously infected mice were altered in comparison to animals immunized naïve with the same combinations, however mucosal antibodies were not enhanced. It was also found that there was no difference in pathology development between any of the groups. This suggests that immunization of individuals who may have an asymptomatic infection, or may have been previously exposed to a genital infection, may not benefit from vaccination in terms of enhanced immune responses against re-exposure. The final section of this study aimed to determine if the vaccination regimes mentioned above caused in vivo persistence of C. muridarum in the upper reproductive tracts of mice. As there has been no characterization of C. muridarum persistence in vitro, either ultrastructurally or via transcriptome analysis, this was the first aim of this section. Once it had been shown that C. muridarum could be induced into a persistent state, the gene transcriptional profiles of the selected persistent marker genes were used to determine if persistent infections were indeed present in the upper reproductive tracts of the mice. We found that intranasal immunization during an active infection induced persistent infections in the oviducts, but not the uterine horns, and that intranasal immunization after clearance of infection, caused persistent infections in both the uterine horns and the oviducts of the mice. This is a significant finding, not only because it is the first time that C. muridarum persistence has been characterized in vitro, but also due to the fact that there is minimal characterization of in vivo persistence of any chlamydial species. It is possible that the induction of persistent infections in the reproductive tract might enhance the development of pathology and thereby enhance the risk of infertility, factors that need to be prevented by vaccination, not enhanced. Overall, this study has shown that the inoculating dose does not affect pathology development in the female reproductive tract of infected mice, but does alter the degree and rate of ascending infection. It has also been shown that intranasal immunization during an active genital infection, or after clearance of one, induces persistent infections in the uterine horns and oviducts of mice. This suggests that potential vaccine candidates will need to have these factors closely examined before progressing to clinical trials. This is significant, because if the same situation occurs in humans, a vaccine administered to an asymptomatic, or previously exposed individual may not afford any extra protection and may in fact enhance the risk of development of infection-associated sequelae. This suggests that a vaccine may serve the community better if administered before the commencement of sexual activity.

Transit line passenger transmission and productiveness under high load conditions

Deterministic transit capacity analysis applies to planning, design and operational management of urban transit systems. The Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual (1) and Vuchic (2, 3) enable transit performance to be quantified and assessed using transit capacity and productive capacity. This paper further defines important productive performance measures of an individual transit service and transit line. Transit work (p-km) captures the transit task performed over distance. Passenger transmission (p-km/h) captures the passenger task delivered by service at speed. Transit productiveness (p-km/h) captures transit work performed over time. These measures are useful to operators in understanding their services’ or systems’ capabilities and passenger quality of service. This paper accounts for variability in utilized demand by passengers along a line and high passenger load conditions where passenger pass-up delay occurs. A hypothetical case study of an individual bus service’s operation demonstrates the usefulness of passenger transmission in comparing existing and growth scenarios. A hypothetical case study of a bus line’s operation during a peak hour window demonstrates the theory’s usefulness in examining the contribution of individual services to line productive performance. Scenarios may be assessed using this theory to benchmark or compare lines and segments, conditions, or consider improvements.

Transit line passenger transmission and productiveness under high load conditions : presentation

Transit Capacity Analysis critical to urban system Planning Design, Operation Productive Performance Analysis not so well detailed This study extends TRB’s & Vuchic’s work in this area

Socio-environmental variability and Barmah Forest virus disease transmission : a review of epidemiological evidence and future prospects

Barmah Forest Virus (BFV) disease is the most rapidly emerging mosquito-borne disease in Australia. BFV transmission depends on factors such as climate, virus, vector and the human population. However, the impact of climatic and social factors on BFV remains to be determined. This paper provided an overview of current research and discusses the future research directions on the BFV transmission. These research findings could be regarded as an impetus towards BFV prevention and control strategies.

Impact of wind power development on transmission planning at Midwest ISO

The Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator (MISO) has experienced significant amounts of wind power development within the last decade. The MISO footprint spans the majority of the upper Midwest region of the country, from the Dakotas to Indiana and as far east as Michigan. These areas have a rich wind energy resource. States in the MISO footprint have passed laws or set goals that require load serving entities to supply a portion of their load using renewable energy. In order to meet these requirements, significant investments are needed to build the transmission infrastructure necessary to deliver the power from these often remote wind energy resources to the load centers. This paper presents some of the transmission planning related work done at MISO which was largely influenced by current and future needs for increased wind power generation in the footprint. Specifically, topics covered are generator interconnection, long-term planning coordination, and cost-allocation for new transmission lines.

Effective planning approach to interconnect bulk quantities of wind generation

Over the past few years, the Midwest ISO has experienced a surge in requests to interconnect large amounts of wind generation, driven largely by a favorable political environment and an abundant wind resource in the Midwestern US. This tremendous influx of proposed generators along with a highly constrained transmission system adversely impacted interconnection queue processing, resulting in an unmanageable backlog. Under these circumstances, Midwest ISO successfully reformed the interconnection tariff to improve cycle times and provide increased certainty to interconnection customers. One of the key features of the reformed queue process is the System Planning and Analysis (SPA) phase which allows integration of the interconnection studies with regional transmission planning. This paper presents a brief background of the queue reform effort and then delves deeply in to the work performed at the Midwest ISO during the first SPA cycle - the study approach, the challenges faced in having to study over 50,000 MWs of wind generation and the effective solutions designed to complete these studies within tariff timelines.

Could BFFB mode breath aerosol play a role in H5N1 transmission?

Recent findings concerning exhaled aerosol size distributions and the regions in the respiratory tract in which they are generated could have significant implications for human to human spread of lower respiratory tract-specific infections. Even in healthy people, measurable quantities of aerosol are routinely generated from the Lower Respiratory Tract (LRT) during breathing(1-3). We have found that there at least three modes in the exhaled aerosol size distribution of healthy adults(4) (see Figure 1). These modes each have a characteristic size and arise from different parts of the respiratory tract. The respiratory bronchioles produce aerosol during breathing, the larynx during speech and the oral cavity also during speech. The model of the resulting droplet size distribution is therefore called the Bronchial Laryngeal Oral (B.L.O.) tri-modal model of expired aerosol.

Risk control in transmission system expansion planning with wind generators

With the advent of large-scale wind farms and their integration into electrical grids, more uncertainties, constraints and objectives must be considered in power system development. It is therefore necessary to introduce risk-control strategies into the planning of transmission systems connected with wind power generators. This paper presents a probability-based multi-objective model equipped with three risk-control strategies. The model is developed to evaluate and enhance the ability of the transmission system to protect against overload risks when wind power is integrated into the power system. The model involves: (i) defining the uncertainties associated with wind power generators with probability measures and calculating the probabilistic power flow with the combined use of cumulants and Gram-Charlier series; (ii) developing three risk-control strategies by specifying the smallest acceptable non-overload probability for each branch and the whole system, and specifying the non-overload margin for all branches in the whole system; (iii) formulating an overload risk index based on the non-overload probability and the non-overload margin defined; and (iv) developing a multi-objective transmission system expansion planning (TSEP) model with the objective functions composed of transmission investment and the overload risk index. The presented work represents a superior risk-control model for TSEP in terms of security, reliability and economy. The transmission expansion planning model with the three risk-control strategies demonstrates its feasibility in the case study using two typical power systems

Passenger transmission and productiveness of transit lines with high loads

Deterministic transit capacity analysis applies to planning, design and operational management of urban transit systems. The Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual (1) and Vuchic (2, 3) enable transit performance to be quantified and assessed using transit capacity and productive capacity. This paper further defines important productive performance measures of an individual transit service and transit line. Transit work (p-km) captures the transit task performed over distance. Passenger transmission (p-km/h) captures the passenger task delivered by service at speed. Transit productiveness (p-km/h) captures transit work performed over time. These measures are useful to operators in understanding their services’ or systems’ capabilities and passenger quality of service. This paper accounts for variability in utilized demand by passengers along a line and high passenger load conditions where passenger pass-up delay occurs. A hypothetical case study of an individual bus service’s operation demonstrates the usefulness of passenger transmission in comparing existing and growth scenarios. A hypothetical case study of a bus line’s operation during a peak hour window demonstrates the theory’s usefulness in examining the contribution of individual services to line productive performance. Scenarios may be assessed using this theory to benchmark or compare lines and segments, conditions, or consider improvements.

Can slide positivity rates predict malaria transmission?

Background: Malaria is a significant threat to population health in the border areas of Yunnan Province, China. How to accurately measure malaria transmission is an important issue. This study aimed to examine the role of slide positivity rates (SPR) in malaria transmission in Mengla County, Yunnan Province, China. Methods: Data on annual malaria cases, SPR and socio-economic factors for the period of 1993 to 2008 were obtained from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Bureau of Statistics, Mengla, China. Multiple linear regression models were conducted to evaluate the relationship between socio-ecologic factors and malaria incidence. Results: The results show that SPR was significantly positively associated with the malaria incidence rates. The SPR (beta = 1.244, p = 0.000) alone and combination (SPR, beta = 1.326, p < 0.001) with other predictors can explain about 85% and 95% of variation in malaria transmission, respectively. Every 1% increase in SPR corresponded to an increase of 1.76/100,000 in malaria incidence rates. Conclusion: SPR is a strong predictor of malaria transmission, and can be used to improve the planning and implementation of malaria elimination programmes in Mengla and other similar locations. SPR might also be a useful indicator of malaria early warning systems in China.

One-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission : a time-series analysis in the rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China

Background: Malaria is a major public health burden in the tropics with the potential to significantly increase in response to climate change. Analyses of data from the recent past can elucidate how short-term variations in weather factors affect malaria transmission. This study explored the impact of climate variability on the transmission of malaria in the tropical rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China. Methods: Ecological time-series analysis was performed on data collected between 1971 and 1999. Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between weather factors and malaria incidence. Results: At the time scale of months, the predictors for malaria incidence included: minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and fog day frequency. The effect of minimum temperature on malaria incidence was greater in the cool months than in the hot months. The fog day frequency in October had a positive effect on malaria incidence in May of the following year. At the time scale of years, the annual fog day frequency was the only weather predictor of the annual incidence of malaria. Conclusion: Fog day frequency was for the first time found to be a predictor of malaria incidence in a rain forest area. The one-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission may involve providing water input and maintaining aquatic breeding sites for mosquitoes in vulnerable times when there is little rainfall in the 6-month dry seasons. These findings should be considered in the prediction of future patterns of malaria for similar tropical rain forest areas worldwide.

High load transit line passenger transmission and productiveness efficiencies

Performance of urban transit systems may be quantified and assessed using transit capacity and productive capacity in planning, design and operational management activities. Bunker (4) defines important productive performance measures of an individual transit service and transit line, which are extended in this paper to quantify efficiency and operating fashion of transit services and lines. Comparison of a hypothetical bus line’s operation during a morning peak hour and daytime hour demonstrates the usefulness of productiveness efficiency and passenger transmission efficiency, passenger churn and average proportion line length traveled to the operator in understanding their services’ and lines’ productive performance, operating characteristics, and quality of service. Productiveness efficiency can flag potential pass-up activity under high load conditions, as well as ineffective resource deployment. Proportion line length traveled can directly measure operating fashion. These measures can be used to compare between lines/routes and, within a given line, various operating scenarios and time horizons to target improvements. The next research stage is investigating within-line variation using smart card passenger data and field observation of pass-ups. Insights will be used to further develop practical guidance to operators.