The jump component of S&P 500 volatility and the VIX index

Much research has investigated the differences between option implied volatilities and econometric model-based forecasts. Implied volatility is a market determined forecast, in contrast to model-based forecasts that employ some degree of smoothing of past volatility to generate forecasts. Implied volatility has the potential to reflect information that a model-based forecast could not. This paper considers two issues relating to the informational content of the S&P 500 VIX implied volatility index. First, whether it subsumes information on how historical jump activity contributed to the price volatility, followed by whether the VIX reflects any incremental information pertaining to future jump activity relative to model-based forecasts. It is found that the VIX index both subsumes information relating to past jump contributions to total volatility and reflects incremental information pertaining to future jump activity. This issue has not been examined previously and expands our understanding of how option markets form their volatility forecasts.

Can book-to-market and size be risk factors that predict economic growth in Asia's emerging economies?

We investigate whether the two 2 zero cost portfolios, SMB and HML, have the ability to predict economic growth for markets investigated in this paper. Our findings show that there are only a limited number of cases when the coefficients are positive and significance is achieved in an even more limited number of cases. Our results are in stark contrast to Liew and Vassalou (2000) who find coefficients to be generally positive and of a similar magnitude. We go a step further and also employ the methodology of Lakonishok, Shleifer and Vishny (1994) and once again fail to support the risk-based hypothesis of Liew and Vassalou (2000). In sum, we argue that search for a robust economic explanation for firm size and book-to-market equity effects needs sustained effort as these two zero cost portfolios do not represent economically relevant risk.

Sex trafficking : the global market in women and children

This book is one of a series on contemporary social issues. It provides a painstakingly researched analysis of the contemporary phenomenon of sex trafficking. As the author Kathryn Farr points out, the phenomenon is not all that contemporary, as women and children have historically been trafficked and enslaved for the purposes of prostitution, particularly during war: in World War II on the southern islands of Okinawa, the Philippines, Hawaii, Liberia, Japan, the Korean war, the Vietnam war, and more recently in Bosnia and Rwanda. Farr links the phenomenon to military socialization, especially to its patriarchal culture which celebrates hyper-masculinity, eroticizes violence, desensitizes soldiers to suffering and brutality and treats women as sex objects.

The home stigma : adverse selection in ADRs and the home capital market environment

We investigate whether characteristics of the home country capital environment, such as information disclosure and investor rights protection continue to affect ADRs cross-listed in the U.S. Using microstructure measures as proxies for adverse selection, we find that characteristics of the home markets continue to be relevant, especially for emerging market firms. Less transparent disclosure, poorer protection of investor rights and weaker legal institutions are associated with higher levels of information asymmetry. Developed market firms appear to be affected by whether or not home business laws are common law or civil law legal origin. Our finding contributes to the bonding literature. It suggests that cross-listing in the U.S. should not be viewed as a substitute for improvement in the quality of local institutions, and attention must be paid to improve investor protection in order to achieve the full benefits of improved disclosure. Improvement in the domestic capital market environment can attract more investors even for U.S. cross-listed firms.

The relationship between implied and realized volatility : evidence from the Australian stock index option market

This paper examines the relationship between the volatility implied in option prices and the subsequently realized volatility by using the S&P/ASX 200 index options (XJO) traded on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) during a period of 5 years. Unlike stock index options such as the S&P 100 index options in the US market, the S&P/ASX 200 index options are traded infrequently and in low volumes, and have a long maturity cycle. Thus an errors-in-variables problem for measurement of implied volatility is more likely to exist. After accounting for this problem by instrumental variable method, it is found that both call and put implied volatilities are superior to historical volatility in forecasting future realized volatility. Moreover, implied call volatility is nearly an unbiased forecast of future volatility.

The economics of credence goods: An experimental investigation of the role of verifiability, liability, competition and reputation in credence goods markets

Credence goods markets are characterized by asymmetric information between sellers and consumers that may give rise to inefficiencies, such as under- and overtreatment or market break-down. We study in a large experiment with 936 participants the determinants for efficiency in credence goods markets. While theory predicts that either liability or verifiability yields efficiency, we find that liability has a crucial, but verifiability only a minor effect. Allowing sellers to build up reputation has little influence, as predicted. Seller competition drives down prices and yields maximal trade, but does not lead to higher efficiency as long as liability is violated.

Studying the effect of market orientation and organisational culture on a brand’s performance

It is now well accepted that effective implementation of market orientation leads to superior performance. This paper theorises that market orientation and an innovative culture enable organisations to achieve higher brand performance. To test this proposition data were gathered from a sample of firms across a range of industries. The results support the premise that market orientation and innovative cultures improve brand performance and that innovative culture influences market orientation. The results also indicate that innovative culture is the stronger driver of brand performance over market orientation.

Post-WTO China : competition and technology transfer laws in the 'new' socialist market economy

China has been the focus of much academic and business scrutiny of late. Its economic climate is changing and its huge new market opportunities seem quite tantalizing to the would-be 'technology entrepreneur'. But China's market is a relatively immature one; it is still in the process of being opened up to real competition. The corollary of this is that, at this stage of the transitional process, there is still significant State control of market function. This article discusses Chinese competition law, the technology transfer system, how the laws are being reformed and how the technology entrepreneur fares under them. The bottom line is that while opportunities beckon, the wise entrepreneur will nevertheless continue to exercise caution.

Market access of Papua New Guinea bananas (Musa spp.) with particular respect to banana fly (Bactrocera musae (Tryon)) (Diptera: Tephritidae)

International market access for fresh commodities is regulated by international accepted phytosanitary guidelines, the objectives of which are to reduce the biosecurity risk of plant pest and disease movement. Papua New Guinea (PNG) has identified banana as a potential export crop and to help meet international market access requirements, this thesis provides information for the development of a pest risk analysis (PRA) for PNG banana fruit. The PRA is a three step process which first identifies the pests associated with a particular commodity or pathway, then assesses the risk associated with those pests, and finally identifies risk management options for those pests if required. As the first step of the PRA process, I collated a definitive list on the organisms associated with the banana plant in PNG using formal literature, structured interviews with local experts, grey literature and unpublished file material held in PNG field research stations. I identified 112 organisms (invertebrates, vertebrate, pathogens and weeds) associated with banana in PNG, but only 14 of these were reported as commonly requiring management. For these 14 I present detailed information summaries on their known biology and pest impact. A major finding of the review was that of the 14 identified key pests, some research information occurs for 13. The single exception for which information was found to be lacking was Bactrocera musae (Tryon), the banana fly. The lack of information for this widely reported ‘major pest on PNG bananas’ would hinder the development of a PNG banana fruit PRA. For this reason the remainder of the thesis focused on this organism, particularly with respect to generation of information required by the PRA process. Utilising an existing, but previously unanalysed fruit fly trapping database for PNG, I carried out a Geographic Information System analysis of the distribution and abundance of banana in four major regions of PNG. This information is required for a PRA to determine if banana fruit grown in different parts of the country are at different risks from the fly. Results showed that the fly was widespread in all cropping regions and that temperature and rainfall were not significantly correlated with banana fly abundance. Abundance of the fly was significantly correlated (albeit weakly) with host availability. The same analysis was done with four other PNG pest fruit flies and their responses to the environmental factors differed to banana fly and each other. This implies that subsequent PRA analyses for other PNG fresh commodities will need to investigate the risk of each of these flies independently. To quantify the damage to banana fruit caused by banana fly in PNG, local surveys and one national survey of banana fruit infestation were carried out. Contrary to expectations, infestation was found to be very low, particularly in the widely grown commercial cultivar, Cavendish. Infestation of Cavendish fingers was only 0.41% in a structured, national survey of over 2 700 banana fingers. Follow up laboratory studies showed that fingers of Cavendish, and another commercial variety Lady-finger, are very poor hosts for B. musae, with very low host selection rates by female flies and very poor immature survival. An analysis of a recent (within last decade) incursion of B. musae into the Gazelle Peninsula of East New Britain Province, PNG, provided the final set of B. musae data. Surveys of the fly on the peninsular showed that establishment and spread of the fly in the novel environment was very rapid and thus the fly should be regarded as being of high biosecurity concern, at least in tropical areas. Supporting the earlier impact studies, however, banana fly has not become a significant banana fruit problem on the Gazelle, despite bananas being the primary starch staple of the region. The results of the research chapters are combined in the final Discussion in the form of a B. musae focused PRA for PNG banana fruit. Putting the thesis in a broader context, the Discussion also deals with the apparent discrepancy between high local abundance of banana fly and very low infestation rates. This discussion focuses on host utilisation patterns of specialist herbivores and suggests that local pest abundance, as determined by trapping or monitoring, need not be good surrogate for crop damage, despite this linkage being implicit in a number of international phytosanitary protocols.

Public awareness of “green” and “energy efficient” residential property : an empirical survey based on data from New Zealand

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the buyer awareness and acceptance of environmental and energy efficiency measures in the New Zealand residential property markets. This study aims to provide a greater understanding of consumer behaviour in the residential property market in relation to green housing issues ---------- Design/methodology/approach – The paper is based on an extensive survey of Christchurch real estate offices and was designed to gather data on the factors that were considered important by buyers in the residential property market. The survey was designed to allow these factors to be analysed on a socio-economic basis and to compare buyer behaviour based on property values. ---------- Findings – The results show that regardless of income levels, buyers still consider that the most important factor in the house purchase decision is the location of the property and price. Although the awareness of green housing issues and energy efficiency in housing is growing in the residential property market, it is only a major consideration for young and older buyers in the high income brackets and is only of some importance for all other buyer sectors of the residential property market. Many of the voluntary measures introduced by Governments to improve the energy efficiency of residential housing are still not considered important by buyers, indicating that a more mandatory approach may have to be undertaken to improve energy efficiency in the established housing market, as these measures are not valued by the buyer. ---------- Originality/value – The paper confirms the variations in real estate buyer behaviour across the full range of residential property markets and the acceptance and awareness of green housing issues and measures. These results would be applicable to most established and transparent residential property markets.

Green energy : sustainable energy sources and alternative technologies

Despite the general evolution and broadening of the scope of the concept of infrastructure in many other sectors, the energy sector has maintained the same narrow boundaries for over 80 years. Energy infrastructure is still generally restricted in meaning to the transmission and distribution networks of electricity and, to some extent, gas. This is especially true in the urban development context. This early 20th century system is struggling to meet community expectations that the industry itself created and fostered for many decades. The relentless growth in demand and changing political, economic and environmental challenges require a shift from the traditional ‘predict and provide’ approach to infrastructure which is no longer economically or environmentally viable. Market deregulation and a raft of demand and supply side management strategies have failed to curb society’s addiction to the commodity of electricity. None of these responses has addressed the fundamental problem. This chapter presents an argument for the need for a new paradigm. Going beyond peripheral energy efficiency measures and the substitution of fossil fuels with renewables, it outlines a new approach to the provision of energy services in the context of 21st century urban environments.

Socially responsible investment in market downturns : implications for the fiduciary responsibilities of investment fund trustees

This paper investigates whether Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) is more or less sensitive to market downturns than conventional investment, and examines the legal implications for fund managers and trustees. Using a market model methodology, we find that over the past 15 years, the beta risk of SRI, both in Australia and internationally, increased more than that of conventional investment during economic downturns. This implies that companies acting as fund trustees, managed investment schemes and traditional institutional fund managers risk breaching their fiduciary or statutory duties if they go long - or remain long - in SRI funds during market downturns, unless perhaps relevant legislation is reformed. If reform is viewed as desirable, possible reforms could include explicitly overriding the common law to allow all traditional funds to invest in SRI; granting immunity to directors of trustee companies from potential personal liability under sections 197 or 588G et seq of the Corporations Act; allowing companies acting as trustees, managed investment schemes and traditional institutional fund managers and trustees to invest in SRI without triggering a substantial capital gains tax liability through trust resettlement; tax concessions for SRI (eg. introducing a 150% tax deduction or investment allowance for SRI); and allowing SRI sub-funds to obtain “deductible gift recipient” status or the equivalent from relevant taxation authorities. The research is important and original insofar as the assessment of risk in SRIs during market downturns is an area which has hitherto not been subjected to rigorous empirical investigation, despite its serious legal implications.

Impacts of vessel capacity reduction programs on the efficiency in fisheries. The case of Australia's multispecies in northern prawn fishery

Capacity reduction programs in the form of buybacks or decommissioning programs have had relatively widespread application in fisheries in the US, Europe and Australia. A common criticism of such programs is that they remove the least efficient vessels first, resulting in an increase in average efficiency of the remaining fleet. The effective fishing power of the fleet, therefore, does not decrease in proportion to the number of vessels removed. Further, reduced crowding may increase efficiency of the remaining vessels. In this paper, the effects of a buyback program on average technical efficiency in Australia’s Northern Prawn Fishery are examined using a multi-output distance function approach with an explicit inefficiency model. The results indicate that average efficiency of the remaining vessels was greater than that of the removed vessels, and that average efficiency of remaining vessels also increased as a result of reduced crowding.