Supplementary information : weighted tree kernels for sequence analysis

Genomic sequences are fundamentally text documents, admitting various representations according to need and tokenization. Gene expression depends crucially on binding of enzymes to the DNA sequence at small, poorly conserved binding sites, limiting the utility of standard pattern search. However, one may exploit the regular syntactic structure of the enzyme's component proteins and the corresponding binding sites, framing the problem as one of detecting grammatically correct genomic phrases. In this paper we propose new kernels based on weighted tree structures, traversing the paths within them to capture the features which underpin the task. Experimentally, we and that these kernels provide performance comparable with state of the art approaches for this problem, while offering significant computational advantages over earlier methods. The methods proposed may be applied to a broad range of sequence or tree-structured data in molecular biology and other domains.

Prediction of CO concentrations based on a hybrid Partial Least Square and Support Vector Machine model

Due to the health impacts caused by exposures to air pollutants in urban areas, monitoring and forecasting of air quality parameters have become popular as an important topic in atmospheric and environmental research today. The knowledge on the dynamics and complexity of air pollutants behavior has made artificial intelligence models as a useful tool for a more accurate pollutant concentration prediction. This paper focuses on an innovative method of daily air pollution prediction using combination of Support Vector Machine (SVM) as predictor and Partial Least Square (PLS) as a data selection tool based on the measured values of CO concentrations. The CO concentrations of Rey monitoring station in the south of Tehran, from Jan. 2007 to Feb. 2011, have been used to test the effectiveness of this method. The hourly CO concentrations have been predicted using the SVM and the hybrid PLS–SVM models. Similarly, daily CO concentrations have been predicted based on the aforementioned four years measured data. Results demonstrated that both models have good prediction ability; however the hybrid PLS–SVM has better accuracy. In the analysis presented in this paper, statistic estimators including relative mean errors, root mean squared errors and the mean absolute relative error have been employed to compare performances of the models. It has been concluded that the errors decrease after size reduction and coefficients of determination increase from 56 to 81% for SVM model to 65–85% for hybrid PLS–SVM model respectively. Also it was found that the hybrid PLS–SVM model required lower computational time than SVM model as expected, hence supporting the more accurate and faster prediction ability of hybrid PLS–SVM model.

Visualization of predictive distributions for discrete spatial-temporal log Cox processes approximated with MCMC

An important aspect of decision support systems involves applying sophisticated and flexible statistical models to real datasets and communicating these results to decision makers in interpretable ways. An important class of problem is the modelling of incidence such as fire, disease etc. Models of incidence known as point processes or Cox processes are particularly challenging as they are ‘doubly stochastic’ i.e. obtaining the probability mass function of incidents requires two integrals to be evaluated. Existing approaches to the problem either use simple models that obtain predictions using plug-in point estimates and do not distinguish between Cox processes and density estimation but do use sophisticated 3D visualization for interpretation. Alternatively other work employs sophisticated non-parametric Bayesian Cox process models, but do not use visualization to render interpretable complex spatial temporal forecasts. The contribution here is to fill this gap by inferring predictive distributions of Gaussian-log Cox processes and rendering them using state of the art 3D visualization techniques. This requires performing inference on an approximation of the model on a discretized grid of large scale and adapting an existing spatial-diurnal kernel to the log Gaussian Cox process context.

Recursive pathways to marginal likelihood estimation with prior-sensitivity analysis

We investigate the utility to computational Bayesian analyses of a particular family of recursive marginal likelihood estimators characterized by the (equivalent) algorithms known as "biased sampling" or "reverse logistic regression" in the statistics literature and "the density of states" in physics. Through a pair of numerical examples (including mixture modeling of the well-known galaxy dataset) we highlight the remarkable diversity of sampling schemes amenable to such recursive normalization, as well as the notable efficiency of the resulting pseudo-mixture distributions for gauging prior-sensitivity in the Bayesian model selection context. Our key theoretical contributions are to introduce a novel heuristic ("thermodynamic integration via importance sampling") for qualifying the role of the bridging sequence in this procedure, and to reveal various connections between these recursive estimators and the nested sampling technique.

Random projections on manifolds of symmetric positive definite matrices for image classification

Recent advances suggest that encoding images through Symmetric Positive Definite (SPD) matrices and then interpreting such matrices as points on Riemannian manifolds can lead to increased classification performance. Taking into account manifold geometry is typically done via (1) embedding the manifolds in tangent spaces, or (2) embedding into Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS). While embedding into tangent spaces allows the use of existing Euclidean-based learning algorithms, manifold shape is only approximated which can cause loss of discriminatory information. The RKHS approach retains more of the manifold structure, but may require non-trivial effort to kernelise Euclidean-based learning algorithms. In contrast to the above approaches, in this paper we offer a novel solution that allows SPD matrices to be used with unmodified Euclidean-based learning algorithms, with the true manifold shape well-preserved. Specifically, we propose to project SPD matrices using a set of random projection hyperplanes over RKHS into a random projection space, which leads to representing each matrix as a vector of projection coefficients. Experiments on face recognition, person re-identification and texture classification show that the proposed approach outperforms several recent methods, such as Tensor Sparse Coding, Histogram Plus Epitome, Riemannian Locality Preserving Projection and Relational Divergence Classification.

Automatic classification of human epithelial type 2 cell indirect immunofluorescence images using cell pyramid matching

This paper describes a novel system for automatic classification of images obtained from Anti-Nuclear Antibody (ANA) pathology tests on Human Epithelial type 2 (HEp-2) cells using the Indirect Immunofluorescence (IIF) protocol. The IIF protocol on HEp-2 cells has been the hallmark method to identify the presence of ANAs, due to its high sensitivity and the large range of antigens that can be detected. However, it suffers from numerous shortcomings, such as being subjective as well as time and labour intensive. Computer Aided Diagnostic (CAD) systems have been developed to address these problems, which automatically classify a HEp-2 cell image into one of its known patterns (eg. speckled, homogeneous). Most of the existing CAD systems use handpicked features to represent a HEp-2 cell image, which may only work in limited scenarios. We propose a novel automatic cell image classification method termed Cell Pyramid Matching (CPM), which is comprised of regional histograms of visual words coupled with the Multiple Kernel Learning framework. We present a study of several variations of generating histograms and show the efficacy of the system on two publicly available datasets: the ICPR HEp-2 cell classification contest dataset and the SNPHEp-2 dataset.

Examining the effects of early cost drivers on contingencies

The accuracy of early cost estimates is critical to the success of construction projects. The selected tender price (clients' building cost) is usually seen in previous research as a holistic dependent variable when examining early stage estimates. Unlike other components of construction cost, the amount of contingencies is decided by clients/consultants with consideration of early project information. Cost drivers of contingencies estimates are associated with uncertainty and complexity, and include project size, schedule, ground condition, construction site access, market condition and so on. A path analysis of 133 UK school building contracts was conducted to identify impacts of nine major cost drivers on the determination of contingencies by different clients/cost estimators. This research finds that gross floor area (GFA), schedule and requirement of air conditioning have statistically significant impacts on the contingency determination. The mediating role of schedule between gross floor area and contingencies (GFA→Schedule→Contingencies) was confirmed with the Soble test. The total effects of the three variables on contingencies estimates were obtained with the consideration of this indirect effect. The squared multiple correlation (SMC) of contingencies (=0.624) indicates the identified three variables can explain 62.4% variance of contingencies, and it is comparatively satisfactory considering the heterogeneity among different estimators, unknown estimating techniques and different projects

Creating flexible mappings between building information models and cost information

During the early design stages of construction projects, accurate and timely cost feedback is critical to design decision making. This is particularly challenging for cost estimators, as they must quickly and accurately estimate the cost of the building when the design is still incomplete and evolving. State-of-the-art software tools typically use a rule-based approach to generate detailed quantities from the design details present in a building model and relate them to the cost items in a cost estimating database. In this paper, we propose a generic approach for creating and maintaining a cost estimate using flexible mappings between a building model and a cost estimate. The approach uses queries on the building design that are used to populate views, and each view is then associated with one or more cost items. The benefit of this approach is that the flexibility of modern query languages allows the estimator to encode a broad variety of relationships between the design and estimate. It also avoids the use of a common standard to which both designers and estimators must conform, allowing the estimator added flexibility and functionality to their work.

Compressed sensing using hidden Markov models with application to vision based aircraft tracking

This paper investigates compressed sensing using hidden Markov models (HMMs) and hence provides an extension of recent single frame, bounded error sparse decoding problems into a class of sparse estimation problems containing both temporal evolution and stochastic aspects. This paper presents two optimal estimators for compressed HMMs. The impact of measurement compression on HMM filtering performance is experimentally examined in the context of an important image based aircraft target tracking application. Surprisingly, tracking of dim small-sized targets (as small as 5-10 pixels, with local detectability/SNR as low as − 1.05 dB) was only mildly impacted by compressed sensing down to 15% of original image size.

A coupled SPH-DEM model for micro-scale structural deformations of plant cells during drying

A single plant cell was modeled with smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) and a discrete element method (DEM) to study the basic micromechanics that govern the cellular structural deformations during drying. This two-dimensional particle-based model consists of two components: a cell fluid model and a cell wall model. The cell fluid was approximated to a highly viscous Newtonian fluid and modeled with SPH. The cell wall was treated as a stiff semi-permeable solid membrane with visco-elastic properties and modeled as a neo-Hookean solid material using a DEM. Compared to existing meshfree particle-based plant cell models, we have specifically introduced cell wall–fluid attraction forces and cell wall bending stiffness effects to address the critical shrinkage characteristics of the plant cells during drying. Also, a moisture domain-based novel approach was used to simulate drying mechanisms within the particle scheme. The model performance was found to be mainly influenced by the particle resolution, initial gap between the outermost fluid particles and wall particles and number of particles in the SPH influence domain. A higher order smoothing kernel was used with adaptive smoothing length to improve the stability and accuracy of the model. Cell deformations at different states of cell dryness were qualitatively and quantitatively compared with microscopic experimental findings on apple cells and a fairly good agreement was observed with some exceptions. The wall–fluid attraction forces and cell wall bending stiffness were found to be significantly improving the model predictions. A detailed sensitivity analysis was also done to further investigate the influence of wall–fluid attraction forces, cell wall bending stiffness, cell wall stiffness and the particle resolution. This novel meshfree based modeling approach is highly applicable for cellular level deformation studies of plant food materials during drying, which characterize large deformations.

Approximate Bayesian Computation for astronomical model analysis : a case study in galaxy demographics and morphological transformation at high redshift

Approximate Bayesian Computation’ (ABC) represents a powerful methodology for the analysis of complex stochastic systems for which the likelihood of the observed data under an arbitrary set of input parameters may be entirely intractable – the latter condition rendering useless the standard machinery of tractable likelihood-based, Bayesian statistical inference [e.g. conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation]. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of ABC for astronomical model analysis by application to a case study in the morphological transformation of high-redshift galaxies. To this end, we develop, first, a stochastic model for the competing processes of merging and secular evolution in the early Universe, and secondly, through an ABC-based comparison against the observed demographics of massive (Mgal > 1011 M⊙) galaxies (at 1.5 < z < 3) in the Cosmic Assembly Near-IR Deep Extragalatic Legacy Survey (CANDELS)/Extended Groth Strip (EGS) data set we derive posterior probability densities for the key parameters of this model. The ‘Sequential Monte Carlo’ implementation of ABC exhibited herein, featuring both a self-generating target sequence and self-refining MCMC kernel, is amongst the most efficient of contemporary approaches to this important statistical algorithm. We highlight as well through our chosen case study the value of careful summary statistic selection, and demonstrate two modern strategies for assessment and optimization in this regard. Ultimately, our ABC analysis of the high-redshift morphological mix returns tight constraints on the evolving merger rate in the early Universe and favours major merging (with disc survival or rapid reformation) over secular evolution as the mechanism most responsible for building up the first generation of bulges in early-type discs.

Shared autonomy for close-quarters navigation and control of a VTOL platform

This thesis presents an approach for a vertical infrastructure inspection using a vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) unmanned aerial vehicle and shared autonomy. Inspecting vertical structure such as light and power distribution poles is a difficult task. There are challenges involved with developing such an inspection system, such as flying in close proximity to a target while maintaining a fixed stand-off distance from it. The contributions of this thesis fall into three main areas. Firstly, an approach to vehicle dynamic modeling is evaluated in simulation and experiments. Secondly, EKF-based state estimators are demonstrated, as well as estimator-free approaches such as image based visual servoing (IBVS) validated with motion capture ground truth data. Thirdly, an integrated pole inspection system comprising a VTOL platform with human-in-the-loop control, (shared autonomy) is demonstrated. These contributions are comprehensively explained through a series of published papers.

Online estimation of Allan variance parameters

A new online method is presented for estimation of the angular randomwalk and rate randomwalk coefficients of inertial measurement unit gyros and accelerometers. In the online method, a state-space model is proposed, and recursive parameter estimators are proposed for quantities previously measured from offline data techniques such as the Allan variance method. The Allan variance method has large offline computational effort and data storage requirements. The technique proposed here requires no data storage and computational effort of approximately 100 calculations per data sample.