Sampling stored-product insect pests : a comparison of four statistical sampling models for probability of pest detection

Background: Developing sampling strategies to target biological pests such as insects in stored grain is inherently difficult owing to species biology and behavioural characteristics. The design of robust sampling programmes should be based on an underlying statistical distribution that is sufficiently flexible to capture variations in the spatial distribution of the target species. Results: Comparisons are made of the accuracy of four probability-of-detection sampling models - the negative binomial model,1 the Poisson model,1 the double logarithmic model2 and the compound model3 - for detection of insects over a broad range of insect densities. Although the double log and negative binomial models performed well under specific conditions, it is shown that, of the four models examined, the compound model performed the best over a broad range of insect spatial distributions and densities. In particular, this model predicted well the number of samples required when insect density was high and clumped within experimental storages. Conclusions: This paper reinforces the need for effective sampling programs designed to detect insects over a broad range of spatial distributions. The compound model is robust over a broad range of insect densities and leads to substantial improvement in detection probabilities within highly variable systems such as grain storage.

Histogram of weighted local directions for gait recognition

In this paper, we explore the effectiveness of patch-based gradient feature extraction methods when applied to appearance-based gait recognition. Extending existing popular feature extraction methods such as HOG and LDP, we propose a novel technique which we term the Histogram of Weighted Local Directions (HWLD). These 3 methods are applied to gait recognition using the GEI feature, with classification performed using SRC. Evaluations on the CASIA and OULP datasets show significant improvements using these patch-based methods over existing implementations, with the proposed method achieving the highest recognition rate for the respective datasets. In addition, the HWLD can easily be extended to 3D, which we demonstrate using the GEV feature on the DGD dataset, observing improvements in performance.

Automatic segmentation of choroidal thickness in optical coherence tomography

The assessment of choroidal thickness from optical coherence tomography (OCT) images of the human choroid is an important clinical and research task, since it provides valuable information regarding the eye’s normal anatomy and physiology, and changes associated with various eye diseases and the development of refractive error. Due to the time consuming and subjective nature of manual image analysis, there is a need for the development of reliable objective automated methods of image segmentation to derive choroidal thickness measures. However, the detection of the two boundaries which delineate the choroid is a complicated and challenging task, in particular the detection of the outer choroidal boundary, due to a number of issues including: (i) the vascular ocular tissue is non-uniform and rich in non-homogeneous features, and (ii) the boundary can have a low contrast. In this paper, an automatic segmentation technique based on graph-search theory is presented to segment the inner choroidal boundary (ICB) and the outer choroidal boundary (OCB) to obtain the choroid thickness profile from OCT images. Before the segmentation, the B-scan is pre-processed to enhance the two boundaries of interest and to minimize the artifacts produced by surrounding features. The algorithm to detect the ICB is based on a simple edge filter and a directional weighted map penalty, while the algorithm to detect the OCB is based on OCT image enhancement and a dual brightness probability gradient. The method was tested on a large data set of images from a pediatric (1083 B-scans) and an adult (90 B-scans) population, which were previously manually segmented by an experienced observer. The results demonstrate the proposed method provides robust detection of the boundaries of interest and is a useful tool to extract clinical data.

Porohyperelastic analysis of single osteocyte using AFM and inverse FEA

Osteocytes are the mature cells and perform as mechanosensors within the bone. The mechanical property of osteocytes plays an important role to fulfill these functions. However, little researches have been done to investigate the mechanical deformation properties of single osteocytes. Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) is a state-of-art experimental facility for high resolution imaging of tissues, cells and any surfaces as well as for probing mechanical properties of the samples both qualitatively and quantitatively. In this paper, the experimental study based on AFM is firstly used to obtain forceindentation curves of single round osteocytes. The porohyperelastic (PHE) model of a single osteocyte is then developed by using the inverse finite element analysis (FEA) to identify and extract mechanical properties from the experiment results. It has been found that the PHE model is a good candidature for biomechanics studies of osteocytes.

Porohyperelastic analysis of single chondrocyte using AFM and inverse FEA

The aim of this paper is to determine the creep and relaxation responses of single chondrocytes in vitro. Firstly, Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) was used to obtain the force-indentation curves of single chondrocytes at the strain-rate of 7.05 s-1. This result was then employed in inverse finite element analysis (FEA) using porohyperelastic (PHE) idealization of the cells to determine their mechanical properties. The PHE model results agreed well with AFM experimental data. This PHE model was then utilized to study chondrocyte’s creep and relaxation behaviors. The results revealed that the effect of fluid was predominant for cell’s mechanical behaviors and that the PHE is a good model for biomechanics studies of chondrocytes.

Locally weighted learning model predictive control for nonlinear and time varying dynamics

This paper proposes an online learning control system that uses the strategy of Model Predictive Control (MPC) in a model based locally weighted learning framework. The new approach, named Locally Weighted Learning Model Predictive Control (LWL-MPC), is proposed as a solution to learn to control robotic systems with nonlinear and time varying dynamics. This paper demonstrates the capability of LWL-MPC to perform online learning while controlling the joint trajectories of a low cost, three degree of freedom elastic joint robot. The learning performance is investigated in both an initial learning phase, and when the system dynamics change due to a heavy object added to the tool point. The experiment on the real elastic joint robot is presented and LWL-MPC is shown to successfully learn to control the system with and without the object. The results highlight the capability of the learning control system to accommodate the lack of mechanical consistency and linearity in a low cost robot arm.

Training-free probability models for whole-image based place recognition

Whole-image descriptors such as GIST have been used successfully for persistent place recognition when combined with temporal filtering or sequential filtering techniques. However, whole-image descriptor localization systems often apply a heuristic rather than a probabilistic approach to place recognition, requiring substantial environmental-specific tuning prior to deployment. In this paper we present a novel online solution that uses statistical approaches to calculate place recognition likelihoods for whole-image descriptors, without requiring either environmental tuning or pre-training. Using a real world benchmark dataset, we show that this method creates distributions appropriate to a specific environment in an online manner. Our method performs comparably to FAB-MAP in raw place recognition performance, and integrates into a state of the art probabilistic mapping system to provide superior performance to whole-image methods that are not based on true probability distributions. The method provides a principled means for combining the powerful change-invariant properties of whole-image descriptors with probabilistic back-end mapping systems without the need for prior training or system tuning.

Supplementary information : weighted tree kernels for sequence analysis

Genomic sequences are fundamentally text documents, admitting various representations according to need and tokenization. Gene expression depends crucially on binding of enzymes to the DNA sequence at small, poorly conserved binding sites, limiting the utility of standard pattern search. However, one may exploit the regular syntactic structure of the enzyme's component proteins and the corresponding binding sites, framing the problem as one of detecting grammatically correct genomic phrases. In this paper we propose new kernels based on weighted tree structures, traversing the paths within them to capture the features which underpin the task. Experimentally, we and that these kernels provide performance comparable with state of the art approaches for this problem, while offering significant computational advantages over earlier methods. The methods proposed may be applied to a broad range of sequence or tree-structured data in molecular biology and other domains.

A Bayesian regression approach to assess uncertainty in pollutant wash-off modelling

Due to knowledge gaps in relation to urban stormwater quality processes, an in-depth understanding of model uncertainty can enhance decision making. Uncertainty in stormwater quality models can originate from a range of sources such as the complexity of urban rainfall-runoff-stormwater pollutant processes and the paucity of observed data. Unfortunately, studies relating to epistemic uncertainty, which arises from the simplification of reality are limited and often deemed mostly unquantifiable. This paper presents a statistical modelling framework for ascertaining epistemic uncertainty associated with pollutant wash-off under a regression modelling paradigm using Ordinary Least Squares Regression (OLSR) and Weighted Least Squares Regression (WLSR) methods with a Bayesian/Gibbs sampling statistical approach. The study results confirmed that WLSR assuming probability distributed data provides more realistic uncertainty estimates of the observed and predicted wash-off values compared to OLSR modelling. It was also noted that the Bayesian/Gibbs sampling approach is superior compared to the most commonly adopted classical statistical and deterministic approaches commonly used in water quality modelling. The study outcomes confirmed that the predication error associated with wash-off replication is relatively higher due to limited data availability. The uncertainty analysis also highlighted the variability of the wash-off modelling coefficient k as a function of complex physical processes, which is primarily influenced by surface characteristics and rainfall intensity.

Do prediction markets produce well-calibrated probability forecasts?

This article presents new theoretical and empirical evidence on the forecasting ability of prediction markets. We develop a model that predicts that the time until expiration of a prediction market should negatively affect the accuracy of prices as a forecasting tool in the direction of a ‘favourite/longshot bias’. That is, high-likelihood events are underpriced, and low-likelihood events are over-priced. We confirm this result using a large data set of prediction market transaction prices. Prediction markets are reasonably well calibrated when time to expiration is relatively short, but prices are significantly biased for events farther in the future. When time value of money is considered, the miscalibration can be exploited to earn excess returns only when the trader has a relatively low discount rate.

Using the quantum probability ranking principle to rank interdependent documents

A known limitation of the Probability Ranking Principle (PRP) is that it does not cater for dependence between documents. Recently, the Quantum Probability Ranking Principle (QPRP) has been proposed, which implicitly captures dependencies between documents through “quantum interference”. This paper explores whether this new ranking principle leads to improved performance for subtopic retrieval, where novelty and diversity is required. In a thorough empirical investigation, models based on the PRP, as well as other recently proposed ranking strategies for subtopic retrieval (i.e. Maximal Marginal Relevance (MMR) and Portfolio Theory(PT)), are compared against the QPRP. On the given task, it is shown that the QPRP outperforms these other ranking strategies. And unlike MMR and PT, one of the main advantages of the QPRP is that no parameter estimation/tuning is required; making the QPRP both simple and effective. This research demonstrates that the application of quantum theory to problems within information retrieval can lead to significant improvements.

Developing the quantum probability ranking principle

In this work, we summarise the development of a ranking principle based on quantum probability theory, called the Quantum Probability Ranking Principle (QPRP), and we also provide an overview of the initial experiments performed employing the QPRP. The main difference between the QPRP and the classic Probability Ranking Principle, is that the QPRP implicitly captures the dependencies between documents by means of quantum interference". Subsequently, the optimal ranking of documents is not based solely on documents' probability of relevance but also on the interference with the previously ranked documents. Our research shows that the application of quantum theory to problems within information retrieval can lead to consistently better retrieval effectiveness, while still being simple, elegant and tractable.

Integrated approach for diagnostics and prognostics of HP LNG pump based on health state probability estimation

Effective machine fault prognostic technologies can lead to elimination of unscheduled downtime and increase machine useful life and consequently lead to reduction of maintenance costs as well as prevention of human casualties in real engineering asset management. This paper presents a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on health state probability estimation technique and historical failure knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostic and prognostic system. To estimate a discrete machine degradation state which can represent the complex nature of machine degradation effectively, the proposed prognostic model employed a classification algorithm which can use a number of damage sensitive features compared to conventional time series analysis techniques for accurate long-term prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, the five different level data of typical four faults from High Pressure Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were used for the comparison of intelligent diagnostic test using five different classification algorithms. In addition, two sets of impeller-rub data were analysed and employed to predict the remnant life of pump based on estimation of health state probability using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognostics system has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for machine remnant life prediction in real life industrial applications.

Probability and story-telling : normative and descriptive models of juridical proof

The operation of the law rests on the selection of an account of the facts. Whether this involves prediction or postdiction, it is not possible to achieve certainty. Any attempt to model the operation of the law completely will therefore raise questions of how to model the process of proof. In the selection of a model a crucial question will be whether the model is to be used normatively or descriptively. Focussing on postdiction, this paper presents and contrasts the mathematical model with the story model. The former carries the normative stamp of scientific approval, whereas the latter has been developed by experimental psychologists to describe how humans reason. Neil Cohen's attempt to use a mathematical model descriptively provides an illustration of the dangers in not clearly setting this parameter of the modelling process. It should be kept in mind that the labels 'normative' and 'descriptive' are not eternal. The mathematical model has its normative limits, beyond which we may need to critically assess models with descriptive origins.

The Quantum Probability Ranking Principle for Information Retrieval

While the Probability Ranking Principle for Information Retrieval provides the basis for formal models, it makes a very strong assumption regarding the dependence between documents. However, it has been observed that in real situations this assumption does not always hold. In this paper we propose a reformulation of the Probability Ranking Principle based on quantum theory. Quantum probability theory naturally includes interference effects between events. We posit that this interference captures the dependency between the judgement of document relevance. The outcome is a more sophisticated principle, the Quantum Probability Ranking Principle, that provides a more sensitive ranking which caters for interference/dependence between documents’ relevance.