On the nature of over-dispersion in motor vehicle crash prediction models

Statistical modeling of traffic crashes has been of interest to researchers for decades. Over the most recent decade many crash models have accounted for extra-variation in crash counts—variation over and above that accounted for by the Poisson density. The extra-variation – or dispersion – is theorized to capture unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites. The majority of studies have assumed fixed dispersion parameters in over-dispersed crash models—tantamount to assuming that unaccounted for variation is proportional to the expected crash count. Miaou and Lord [Miaou, S.P., Lord, D., 2003. Modeling traffic crash-flow relationships for intersections: dispersion parameter, functional form, and Bayes versus empirical Bayes methods. Transport. Res. Rec. 1840, 31–40] challenged the fixed dispersion parameter assumption, and examined various dispersion parameter relationships when modeling urban signalized intersection accidents in Toronto. They suggested that further work is needed to determine the appropriateness of the findings for rural as well as other intersection types, to corroborate their findings, and to explore alternative dispersion functions. This study builds upon the work of Miaou and Lord, with exploration of additional dispersion functions, the use of an independent data set, and presents an opportunity to corroborate their findings. Data from Georgia are used in this study. A Bayesian modeling approach with non-informative priors is adopted, using sampling-based estimation via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and the Gibbs sampler. A total of eight model specifications were developed; four of them employed traffic flows as explanatory factors in mean structure while the remainder of them included geometric factors in addition to major and minor road traffic flows. The models were compared and contrasted using the significance of coefficients, standard deviance, chi-square goodness-of-fit, and deviance information criteria (DIC) statistics. The findings indicate that the modeling of the dispersion parameter, which essentially explains the extra-variance structure, depends greatly on how the mean structure is modeled. In the presence of a well-defined mean function, the extra-variance structure generally becomes insignificant, i.e. the variance structure is a simple function of the mean. It appears that extra-variation is a function of covariates when the mean structure (expected crash count) is poorly specified and suffers from omitted variables. In contrast, when sufficient explanatory variables are used to model the mean (expected crash count), extra-Poisson variation is not significantly related to these variables. If these results are generalizable, they suggest that model specification may be improved by testing extra-variation functions for significance. They also suggest that known influences of expected crash counts are likely to be different than factors that might help to explain unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites

Out of touch? On the lack of emotional support over the mobile phone

Findings from an Australian case study of adult women expose general, light and basic use of mobile phones. Participants used their mobile phone mainly for coordination and to a lesser extent for practicing intrinsic interactions motivated by emotional support purposes. This paper focuses on social and emotional support over the mobile phone. Though crucial to individuals, emotional support seems to be a neglected area of research among mobile communication studies, all the more so when focusing on adult women. This study addresses this literature gap. The empirical findings are based on a case study of 26 women over 35 years of age residing in one coastal Australian town. The research design included a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. This paper examines the communication methods adult women use for social and emotional support, and analyses reasons and social implications of this limited intrinsic communication use pattern over the mobile phone.

Ocklawaha River restoration : the fate of the Rodman Reservoir

The Rodman Reservoir, an impoundment on the Ocklawaha River in north central Florida, is a last remnant of the Cross-Florida Barge Canal (CFBC). The canal, conceived in the 1820's, was designed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to shorten shipping lanes between the Fulf ports and the Atlantic coast. Opposition to CFBC by Florida's young environmental movement led to a half in construction of the CFBC in 1971, but decommissioning of the already-constructed Rodman dam and the reservoir behind it has been mired in controversy every since.

Resident-funded retirement village valuations : complications with the application of the DCF

Retirement village assets are different from traditional residential assets due to their operation in accordance with statutory legislation. Designed for independent living, retirement villages provide either detached or semi-detached residential dwellings with car parking and small private yards with community facilities providing a shared congregational area for village activities and socialising. In essence, the village operator provides the land and buildings to the residents who pay an amount on entry for the right of occupation. On departure from the units an agreed proportion of either the original purchase price or the sale price is paid to the outgoing resident. As ongoing levies are typically offset by ongoing operational expenses the market value of the operator's interest in the retirement village is therefore predominantly based upon the estimated future income from deferred management fees and capital gain upon roll-over receivable by the operator in accordance with the respective residency agreements. Given the lumpiness of these payments, there is general acceptance that the most appropriate approach to valuation is through discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. There is however inconsistency between valuers across Australia in how they undertake their DCF analysis, leading to differences in reported values and subsequent confusion among users of valuation services. To give guidance to valuers and enhance confidence from users of valuation services this paper investigates the five major elements of DCF methodology, namely cash flows, escalation factors, holding period, terminal value and discount rate.

The Law of Real Property Mortgages

This book examines the principles and practice of real estate mortgages in an easily accessible text referenced to all the Australian States. It specifically deals with the major theoretical and practical aspects of the land mortgage including vitiating factors in formation, mortgagees powers and duties and mortgagors’ rights both statutory and other, assignment, insurance and discharge. As a successor to Mortgages Law in Australia, this book adopts an exclusive focus on real estate mortgages in Australia and provides a thorough account of the law through analysis of the plethora of court decisions and statutory provisions in this area. Duncan and Dixon analyse the substance of the mortgage transaction from creation through to rights of enforcement. This analysis includes detailed consideration of the rights and obligations of both mortgagors and mortgagees covering topics such as priorities and tacking, insurance, variation and assignment, rights of discharge, entry into possession, foreclosure and power of sale. In addition, the book contains a separate chapter on factors that may affect the validity and enforcement of a mortgage together with separate consideration of a mortgagee’s right to enforce a guarantee provided on behalf of a mortgagor and the rights and liabilities associated with a receivership regime initiated by a mortgagee. Written for the national market, the book is one of the few substantial works on this subject for practitioners throughout Australia. It is a very accessible text which enables readers to decide whether or not they have a problem and provides primary guidance to its solution. The book has been deliberately, heavily referenced to incorporate statutory references from across Australia and contains extensive case analysis in order to satisfy both these objectives.

Can compensation be claimed under the standard commercial land and building contract where the property sold has no legally enforceable vehicular access?

This was the question that confronted Wilson J in Jarema Pty Ltd v Michihiko Kato [2004] QSC 451. Facts The plaintiff was the buyer of a commercial property at Bundall. The property comprised a 6 storey office building with a basement car park with 54 car parking spaces. The property was sold for $5 million with the contract being the standard REIQ/QLS form for Commercial Land and Buildings (2nd ed GST reprint). The contract provided for a “due diligence” period. During this period, the buyer’s solicitors discovered that there was no direct access from a public road to the car park entrance. Access to the car park was over a lot of which the Gold Coast City Council was the registered owner under a nomination of trustees, the Council holding the property on trust for car parking and town planning purposes. Due to the absence of a registered easement over the Council’s land, the buyer’s solicitors sought a reduction in the purchase price. The seller would not agree to this. Finally the sale was completed with the buyer reserving its rights to seek compensation.

Estoppel in the face of consumer protection in land transactions- judicial reasoning or judicial intuition

Nationally, there is much legislation regulating land sale transactions, particularly in relation to seller disclosure of information. The statutes require strict compliance by a seller failing which, in general, a buyer can terminate the contract. In a number of instances, when buyers have sought to exercise these rights, sellers have alleged that buyers have either expressly or by conduct waived their rights to rely upon these statutes. This article examines the nature of these rights in this context, whether they are capable of waiver and, if so, what words or conduct might be sufficient to amount to waiver. The analysis finds that the law is in a very unsatisfactory state, that the operation of those rules that can be identified as having relevance are unevenly applied and concludes that sellers have, in the main, been unsuccessful in defeating buyers' statutory rights as a result of an alleged waiver by those buyers.

The contribution of maize cropping in the Midwest USA to global warming: A regional estimate

Agricultural soils emit about 50% of the global flux of N2O attributable to human influence, mostly in response to nitrogen fertilizer use. Recent evidence that the relationship between N2O fluxes and N-fertilizer additions to cereal maize are non-linear provides an opportunity to estimate regional N2O fluxes based on estimates of N application rates rather than as a simple percentage of N inputs as used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We combined a simple empirical model of N2O production with the SOCRATES soil carbon dynamics model to estimate N2O and other sources of Global Warming Potential (GWP) from cereal maize across 19,000 cropland polygons in the North Central Region (NCR) of the US over the period 1964–2005. Results indicate that the loading of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere from cereal maize production in the NCR was 1.7 Gt CO2e, with an average 268 t CO2e produced per tonne of grain. From 1970 until 2005, GHG emissions per unit product declined on average by 2.8 t CO2e ha−1 annum−1, coinciding with a stabilisation in N application rate and consistent increases in grain yield from the mid-1970’s. Nitrous oxide production from N fertilizer inputs represented 59% of these emissions, soil C decline (0–30 cm) represented 11% of total emissions, with the remaining 30% (517 Mt) from the combustion of fuel associated with farm operations. Of the 126 Mt of N fertilizer applied to cereal maize from 1964 to 2005, we estimate that 2.2 Mt N was emitted as N2O when using a non-linear response model, equivalent to 1.75% of the applied N.

Israel's airstrike on Syria's Al-Kibar facility : a test case for the doctrine of pre-emptive self-defence?

This article analyses the legality of Israel’s 2007 airstrike on an alleged Syrian nuclear facility at Al-Kibar—an incident that has been largely overlooked by international lawyers to date. The absence of a threat of imminent attack from Syria means Israel’s military action was not a lawful exercise of anticipatory self-defence. Yet, despite Israel’s clear violation of the prohibition on the use of force there was remarkably little condemnation from other states, suggesting the possibility of growing international support for the doctrine of pre-emptive self-defence. This article argues that the muted international reaction to Israel’s pre-emptive action was the result of political factors, and should not be seen as endorsement of the legality of the airstrike. As such, a lack of opinio juris means the Al-Kibar episode cannot be viewed as extending the scope of the customary international law right of self-defence so as to permit the use of force against non-imminent threats. However, two features of this incident—namely, Israel’s failure to offer any legal justification for its airstrike, and the international community’s apparent lack of concern over legality—are also evident in other recent uses of force in the ‘war on terror’ context. These developments may indicate a shift in state practice involving a downgrading of the role of international law in discussions of the use of force. This may signal a declining perception of the legitimacy of the jus ad bellum, at least in cases involving minor uses of force.

Capacity-building workshops on the responsibility to protect (R2P) and the protection of civilians (POC) in armed conflict - Summary Report

In June 2011, a research project team from the Institute for Ethics, Governance and Law (IEGL), Queensland University of Technology, the United Nations University, and the Australian Government’s Asia Pacific Civil-Military Centre of Excellence (APCMCOE) held three Capacity-Building Workshops (the Workshops) on the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) and the Protection of Civilians (POC) in Armed Conflict in Manila, Kuala Lumpur, and Jakarta. The research project is funded by the Australian Responsibility to Protect Fund, with support from APCMCOE. Developments in Libya and Cote d’Ivoire and the actions of the United Nations Security Council have given new significance to the relationship between R2P and POC, providing impetus to the relevance and application of the POC principle recognised in numerous Security Council resolutions, and the R2P principle, which was recognised by the United Nations General Assembly in 2005 and, now, by the Security Council. The Workshops considered the relationship between R2P and POC. The project team presented the preliminary findings of their study and sought contributions and feedback from Workshop participants. Prior to the Workshops, members of the project team undertook interviews with UN offices and agencies, international organisations (IOs) and non-government organisations (NGOs) in Geneva and New York as part of the process of mapping the relationship between R2P and POC. Initial findings were considered at an Academic-Practitioner Workshop held at the University of Sydney in November 2010. In addition to an extensive literature review and a series of academic publications, the project team is preparing a practical guidance text (the Guide) on the relationship between R2P and POC to assist the United Nations, governments, regional bodies, IOs and NGOs in considering and applying appropriate protection strategies. It is intended that the Guide be presented to the United Nations Secretariat in New York in early 2012. The primary aim of the Workshops was to test the project’s initial findings among an audience of diplomats, military, police, civilian policy-makers, practitioners, researchers and experts from within the region. Through dialogue and discussion, the project team gathered feedback – comments, questions, critique and suggestions – to help shape the development of practical guidance about when, how and by whom R2P and POC might be implemented.

Conflict or consensus : an investigation of stakeholder concerns during the participation process of major infrastructure and construction projects in Hong Kong

Public participate in the planning and design of major public infrastructure and construction (PIC) projects is crucial to their success, as the interests of different stakeholders can be systematically captured and built into the finalised scheme. However, public participation may not always yield a mutually acceptable solution, especially when the interests of stakeholders are diverse and conflicting. Confrontations and disputes can arise unless the concerns or needs of the community are carefully analysed and addressed. The aim of the paper is to propose a systematic method of analysing stakeholder concerns relating to PIC projects by examining the degree of consensus and/or conflict involved. The results of a questionnaire survey and a series of interviews with different entities are provided, which indicate the existence of a significant divergence of views among stakeholder groups and that conflicts arise when there is a mismatch between peoples’ perception concerning money and happiness on the one hand and development and damages on the other. Policy and decision-makers should strive to resolve at least the majority of conflicts that arise throughout the lifecycle of major PIC projects so as to maximise their chance of success.

Severe workplace conflict : the experience of mobbing

Workplace mobbing is a particularly serious phenomenon that is extremely costly to organizations and the health of those targeted. This article reports on a study of self-identified targets of mobbing. Findings support a five-stage process of mobbing, which commences with unresolved conflict and leads ultimately to expulsion from the organization. Participants report a number of experiences, such as lengthy investigations and escalation of conflict, that result in an increasingly unbalanced sense of power away from the individual and towards the organization. Revealed is a mismatch between the expected organizational justice processes and support and the actual experience. Recommendations for approaching this problem are discussed.