126 resultados para Uncertainty propagation
Resumo:
The galvanic replacement of isolated nanostructures of copper and silver on conducting supports as well as continuous films of copper with gold is reported. The surface morphology was characterized by scanning electron microscopy and the replacement with gold was confirmed by EDX analysis. It was found that lateral charge propagation during the replacement reaction had a significant effect in all cases. For the isolated nanostructures the deposition of gold was observed not only at the sacrificial template but also at the surrounding unmodified areas of the conducting substrate. In the case of copper films the role of lateral charge propagation was also confirmed by connecting it to an ITO electrode through an external circuit upon which gold deposition was also observed to occur. Interestingly, by inhibiting the rate of charge propagation, through the introduction of a series resistor, the morphology of gold on the copper substrate could be changed from discrete surface decoration with cube like nanoparticles to a more porous rough surface.
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The galvanic replacement of isolated electrodeposited semiconducting CuTCNQ microstructures on a glassy carbon (GC) substrate with gold is investigated. It is found that anisotropic metal nanoparticles are formed which are not solely confined to the redox active sites on the semiconducting materials but are also observed on the GC substrate which occurs via a lateral charge propagation mechanism. We also demonstrate that this galvanic replacement approach can be used for the formation of isolated AgTCNQ/Au microwire composites which occurs via an analogous mechanism. The resultant MTCNQ/Au (M = Cu, Ag) composite materials are characterized by Raman, spectroscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and investigated for their catalytic properties for the reduction of ferricyanide ions with thiosulphate ions in aqueous solution. Significantly it is demonstrated that gold loading, nanoparticle shape and in particular the MTCNQ–Au interface are important factors that influence the reaction rate. It is shown that there is a synergistic effect at the CuTCNQ/Au composite when compared to AgTCNQ/Au at similar gold loadings.
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Some of Queensland's regions are experiencing rapid changes related to the recent and growing capacity to more effectively exploit significant energy sources. These changes have triggered land-use conflicts between the mining sector and other economic sectors, mainly agriculture. These conflicts fuel existing uncertainty surrounding the current and future economic, social and environmental impacts of extractive industries. This paper explores the concept of uncertainty as it applies to planning for resource-based regions through a scoping analysis of regional stakeholders' perceptions of land-use uncertainty. It then investigates solutions to alleviate such an issue.
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We examine the role of politico-economic influences on macroeconomic performance within the framework of an endogenous growth model with costly technology adoption and uncertainty. The model is aimed at understanding the diversity in growth and inequality experiences across countries. Agents adopt either of two risky technologies, one of which is only available through financial intermediaries, who are able to alleviate some of this risk. The entry cost of financial intermediation depends on the proportion of government revenue that is allocated towards cost-reducing financial development expenditure, and agents vote on this proportion. The results show that agents at the top and bottom ends of the distribution prefer alternative means of re-distribution, thereby effectively blocking the allocation of resources towards cost-reducing financial development expenditure. Thus political factors have a role in delaying financial and capital deepening and economic development. Furthermore, the model provides a political-economy perspective on the Kuznets curve; uncertainty interacts with the political economy mechanism to produce transitional inequality patterns that, depending on initial conditions, can unearth the Kuznets-curve experience. Finally, the political outcomes are inefficient relative to policies aimed at maximizing the collective welfare of agents in the economy.
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In a large interconnected power system, disturbances initiated by a fault or other events cause acceleration in the generator rotors with respect to their synchronous reference frame. This acceleration of rotors can be described by two different dynamic phenomena, as shown in existing literature. One of the phenomena is simultaneous acceleration and the other is electromechanical wave propagation, which is characterized by travelling waves in terms of a wave equation. This paper demonstrates that depending on the structure of the system, the exhibited dynamic response will be dominated by one phenomenon or the other or a mixture of both. Two system structures of choice are examined, with each structure exemplifying each phenomenon present to different degrees in their dynamic responses. Prediction of dominance of either dynamic phenomenon in a particular system can be determined by taking into account the relative sizes of the values of its reduced admittance matrix.
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This study considered the problem of predicting survival, based on three alternative models: a single Weibull, a mixture of Weibulls and a cure model. Instead of the common procedure of choosing a single “best” model, where “best” is defined in terms of goodness of fit to the data, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach was adopted to account for model uncertainty. This was illustrated using a case study in which the aim was the description of lymphoma cancer survival with covariates given by phenotypes and gene expression. The results of this study indicate that if the sample size is sufficiently large, one of the three models emerge as having highest probability given the data, as indicated by the goodness of fit measure; the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). However, when the sample size was reduced, no single model was revealed as “best”, suggesting that a BMA approach would be appropriate. Although a BMA approach can compromise on goodness of fit to the data (when compared to the true model), it can provide robust predictions and facilitate more detailed investigation of the relationships between gene expression and patient survival. Keywords: Bayesian modelling; Bayesian model averaging; Cure model; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Mixture model; Survival analysis; Weibull distribution
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The acceptance of broadband ultrasound attenuation for the assessment of osteoporosis suffers from a limited understanding of ultrasound wave propagation through cancellous bone. It has recently been proposed that the ultrasound wave propagation can be described by a concept of parallel sonic rays. This concept approximates the detected transmission signal to be the superposition of all sonic rays that travel directly from transmitting to receiving transducer. The transit time of each ray is defined by the proportion of bone and marrow propagated. An ultrasound transit time spectrum describes the proportion of sonic rays having a particular transit time, effectively describing lateral inhomogeneity of transit times over the surface of the receiving ultrasound transducer. The aim of this study was to provide a proof of concept that a transit time spectrum may be derived from digital deconvolution of input and output ultrasound signals. We have applied the active-set method deconvolution algorithm to determine the ultrasound transit time spectra in the three orthogonal directions of four cancellous bone replica samples and have compared experimental data with the prediction from the computer simulation. The agreement between experimental and predicted ultrasound transit time spectrum analyses derived from Bland–Altman analysis ranged from 92% to 99%, thereby supporting the concept of parallel sonic rays for ultrasound propagation in cancellous bone. In addition to further validation of the parallel sonic ray concept, this technique offers the opportunity to consider quantitative characterisation of the material and structural properties of cancellous bone, not previously available utilising ultrasound.
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Due to knowledge gaps in relation to urban stormwater quality processes, an in-depth understanding of model uncertainty can enhance decision making. Uncertainty in stormwater quality models can originate from a range of sources such as the complexity of urban rainfall-runoff-stormwater pollutant processes and the paucity of observed data. Unfortunately, studies relating to epistemic uncertainty, which arises from the simplification of reality are limited and often deemed mostly unquantifiable. This paper presents a statistical modelling framework for ascertaining epistemic uncertainty associated with pollutant wash-off under a regression modelling paradigm using Ordinary Least Squares Regression (OLSR) and Weighted Least Squares Regression (WLSR) methods with a Bayesian/Gibbs sampling statistical approach. The study results confirmed that WLSR assuming probability distributed data provides more realistic uncertainty estimates of the observed and predicted wash-off values compared to OLSR modelling. It was also noted that the Bayesian/Gibbs sampling approach is superior compared to the most commonly adopted classical statistical and deterministic approaches commonly used in water quality modelling. The study outcomes confirmed that the predication error associated with wash-off replication is relatively higher due to limited data availability. The uncertainty analysis also highlighted the variability of the wash-off modelling coefficient k as a function of complex physical processes, which is primarily influenced by surface characteristics and rainfall intensity.
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This paper presents a new algorithm based on a Modified Particle Swarm Optimization (MPSO) to estimate the harmonic state variables in a distribution networks. The proposed algorithm performs the estimation for both amplitude and phase of each injection harmonic currents by minimizing the error between the measured values from Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) and the values computed from the estimated parameters during the estimation process. The proposed algorithm can take into account the uncertainty of the harmonic pseudo measurement and the tolerance in the line impedances of the network as well as the uncertainty of the Distributed Generators (DGs) such as Wind Turbines (WTs). The main features of the proposed MPSO algorithm are usage of a primary and secondary PSO loop and applying the mutation function. The simulation results on 34-bus IEEE radial and a 70-bus realistic radial test networks are presented. The results demonstrate that the speed and the accuracy of the proposed Distribution Harmonic State Estimation (DHSE) algorithm are very excellent compared to the algorithms such as Weight Least Square (WLS), Genetic Algorithm (GA), original PSO, and Honey Bees Mating Optimization (HBMO).
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This paper presents a new algorithm based on a Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Simulated Annealing (SA) called PSO-SA to estimate harmonic state variables in distribution networks. The proposed algorithm performs estimation for both amplitude and phase of each harmonic currents injection by minimizing the error between the measured values from Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) and the values computed from the estimated parameters during the estimation process. The proposed algorithm can take into account the uncertainty of the harmonic pseudo measurement and the tolerance in the line impedances of the network as well as uncertainty of the Distributed Generators (DGs) such as Wind Turbines (WT). The main feature of proposed PSO-SA algorithm is to reach quickly around the global optimum by PSO with enabling a mutation function and then to find that optimum by SA searching algorithm. Simulation results on IEEE 34 bus radial and a realistic 70-bus radial test networks are presented to demonstrate the speed and accuracy of proposed Distribution Harmonic State Estimation (DHSE) algorithm is extremely effective and efficient in comparison with the conventional algorithms such as Weight Least Square (WLS), Genetic Algorithm (GA), original PSO and Honey Bees Mating Optimization (HBMO) algorithm.
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The objective of this research was to develop a model to estimate future freeway pavement construction costs in Henan Province, China. A comprehensive set of factors contributing to the cost of freeway pavement construction were included in the model formulation. These factors comprehensively reflect the characteristics of region and topography and altitude variation, the cost of labour, material, and equipment, and time-related variables such as index numbers of labour prices, material prices and equipment prices. An Artificial Neural Network model using the Back-Propagation learning algorithm was developed to estimate the cost of freeway pavement construction. A total of 88 valid freeway cases were obtained from freeway construction projects let by the Henan Transportation Department during the period 1994−2007. Data from a random selection of 81 freeway cases were used to train the Neural Network model and the remaining data were used to test the performance of the Neural Network model. The tested model was used to predict freeway pavement construction costs in 2010 based on predictions of input values. In addition, this paper provides a suggested correction for the prediction of the value for the future freeway pavement construction costs. Since the change in future freeway pavement construction cost is affected by many factors, the predictions obtained by the proposed method, and therefore the model, will need to be tested once actual data are obtained.
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This paper presents the Mossman Mill District Practices Framework. It was developed in the Wet Tropics region within the Great Barrier Reef in north-eastern Australia to describe the environmental benefits of agricultural management practices for the sugar cane industry. The framework translates complex, unclear and overlapping environmental plans, policy and legal arrangements into a simple framework of management practices that landholders can use to improve their management actions. Practices range from those that are old or outdated through to aspirational practices that have the potential to achieve desired resource condition targets. The framework has been applied by stakeholders at multiple scales to better coordinate and integrate a range of policy arrangements to improve natural resource management. It has been used to structure monitoring and evaluation in order to underpin a more adaptive approach to planning at mill district and property scale. Potentially, the framework and approach can be applied across fields of planning where adaptive management is needed. It has the potential to overcome many of the criticisms of property-scale and regional Natural Resource Management.
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A theoretical model of a large-area planar plasma producer based on surface wave (SW) propagation in a plasma-metal structure with a dielectric sheath is presented. The SW which produces and sustains the microwave gas discharge in the planar structure propagates along an external magnetic field and possesses an eigenfrequency within the range between electron cyclotron and electron plasma frequencies. The spatial distributions of the produced plasma density, electromagnetic fields, energy flow density, phase velocity and reverse skin depth of the SW are obtained analytically and numerically.
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The results of a study on the influence of the nonparabolicity of the free carriers dispersion law on the propagation of surface polaritons (SPs) located near the interface between an n-type semiconductor and a metal arc reported. The semiconductor plasma is assumed to be warm and nonisothermal. The nonparabolicity of the electron dispersion law has two effects. The first one is associated with nonlinear self-interaction of the SPs. The nonlinear dispersion equation and the nonlinear Schrodinger equation for the amplitude of the SP envelope are obtained. The nonlinear evolution of the SP is studied on the base of the above mentioned equations. The second effect results in third harmonics generation. Analysis shows that these third harmonics may appear as a pure surface polariton, a pseudosurface polariton, or a superposition of a volume wave and a SP depending on the wave frequency, electron density and lattice dielectric constant.
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Effect of near-wall transition regions on the surface wave propagation in a magnetoactive plasma layer bounded by a metal. It is shown that the account for inhomogeneities of plasma density or magnetic field causes an appearance of coupling between surface waves, propagating across magnetic field and localized near difference boundaries of the structure. The resonance damping of surface waves is analyzed too.