Estimating present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the Australian coastline

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms, but exclusive of surface gravity waves. The study has been undertaken in two main stages. In the first stage, a high-resolution (~10 km along the coast) hydrodynamic depth averaged model has been configured for the whole coastline of Australia using the Danish Hydraulics Institute’s Mike21 modelling suite of tools. The model has been forced with astronomical tidal levels, derived from the TPX07.2 global tidal model, and meteorological fields, from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction’s global reanalysis, to generate a 61-year (1949 to 2009) hindcast of water levels. This model output has been validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites around Australia with long records. At each of the model grid points located around the coast, time series of annual maxima and the several highest water levels for each year were derived from the multi-decadal water level hindcast and have been fitted to extreme value distributions to estimate exceedance probabilities. Stage 1 provided a reliable estimate of the present day total water level exceedance probabilities around southern Australia, which is mainly impacted by extra-tropical storms. However, as the meteorological fields used to force the hydrodynamic model only weakly include the effects of tropical cyclones the resultant water levels exceedance probabilities were underestimated around western, northern and north-eastern Australia at higher return periods. Even if the resolution of the meteorological forcing was adequate to represent tropical cyclone-induced surges, multi-decadal periods yielded insufficient instances of tropical cyclones to enable the use of traditional extreme value extrapolation techniques. Therefore, in the second stage of the study, a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks and central pressures was developed using histroic observations. This model was then used to generate synthetic events that represented 10,000 years of cyclone activity for the Australia region, with characteristics based on the observed tropical cyclones over the last ~40 years. Wind and pressure fields, derived from these synthetic events using analytical profile models, were used to drive the hydrodynamic model to predict the associated storm surge response. A random time period was chosen, during the tropical cyclone season, and astronomical tidal forcing for this period was included to account for non-linear interactions between the tidal and surge components. For each model grid point around the coast, annual maximum total levels for these synthetic events were calculated and these were used to estimate exceedance probabilities. The exceedance probabilities from stages 1 and 2 were then combined to provide a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia.

The cost-effectiveness of total laparoscopic hysterectomy compared to total abdominal hysterectomy for the treatment of early stage endometrial cancer

Objective To summarise how costs and health benefits will change with the adoption of total laparoscopic hysterectomy compared to total abdominal hysterectomy for the treatment of early stage endometrial cancer. Design Cost-effectiveness modelling using the information from a randomised controlled trial. Participants Two hypothetical modelled cohorts of 1000 individuals undergoing total laparoscopic hysterectomy and total abdominal hysterectomy. Outcome measures Surgery costs; hospital bed days used; total healthcare costs; quality-adjusted life years; and net monetary benefits. Results For 1000 individuals receiving total laparoscopic hysterectomy surgery, the costs were $509 575 higher, 3548 hospital fewer bed days were used and total health services costs were reduced by $3 746 221. There were 39.13 more quality-adjusted life years for a 5 year period following surgery. Conclusions The adoption of total laparoscopic hysterectomy is almost certainly a good decision for health services policy makers. There is 100% probability that it will be cost saving to health services, a 86.8% probability that it will increase health benefits and a 99.5% chance that it returns net monetary benefits greater than zero.

Modelling total duration of traffic incidents including incident detection and recovery time

Traffic incidents are key contributors to non-recurrent congestion, potentially generating significant delay. Factors that influence the duration of incidents are important to understand so that effective mitigation strategies can be implemented. To identify and quantify the effects of influential factors, a methodology for studying total incident duration based on historical data from an ‘integrated database’ is proposed. Incident duration models are developed using a selected freeway segment in the Southeast Queensland, Australia network. The models include incident detection and recovery time as components of incident duration. A hazard-based duration modelling approach is applied to model incident duration as a function of a variety of factors that influence traffic incident duration. Parametric accelerated failure time survival models are developed to capture heterogeneity as a function of explanatory variables, with both fixed and random parameters specifications. The analysis reveals that factors affecting incident duration include incident characteristics (severity, type, injury, medical requirements, etc.), infrastructure characteristics (roadway shoulder availability), time of day, and traffic characteristics. The results indicate that event type durations are uniquely different, thus requiring different responses to effectively clear them. Furthermore, the results highlight the presence of unobserved incident duration heterogeneity as captured by the random parameter models, suggesting that additional factors need to be considered in future modelling efforts.

Total factor productivity growth and convergence in the petroleum industry : empirical analysis testing for convexity

While economic theory acknowledges that some features of technology (e.g., indivisibilities, economies of scale and specialization) can fundamentally violate the traditional convexity assumption, almost all empirical studies accept the convexity property on faith. In this contribution, we apply two alternative flexible production technologies to measure total factor productivity growth and test the significance of the convexity axiom using a nonparametric test of closeness between unknown distributions. Based on unique field level data on the petroleum industry, the empirical results reveal significant differences, indicating that this production technology is most likely non-convex. Furthermore, we also show the impact of convexity on answers to traditional convergence questions in the productivity growth literature.

Can measures of limb loading and dynamic stability during the squat maneuver provide an index of early functional recovery following unilateral total hip arthroplasty?

Objective: To investigate limb loading and dynamic stability during squatting in the early functional recovery of total hip arthroplasty (THA) patients. Design: Cohort study Setting: Inpatient rehabilitation clinic. Participants: A random sample of 61 THA patients (34♂/27♀; 62±9 yrs, 77±14 kg, 174±9 cm) was assessed twice, 13.2±3.8 days (PRE) and 26.6±3.3 days post-surgery (POST), and compared with a healthy reference group (REF) (22♂/16♀; 47±12yrs; 78±20kg; 175±10cm). Interventions: THA patients received two weeks of standard in-patient rehabilitation. Main Outcome Measure(s): Inter-limb vertical force distribution and dynamic stability during the squat maneuver, as defined by the root mean square (RMS) of the center of pressure in antero-posterior and medio-lateral directions, of operated (OP) and non-operated (NON)limbs. Self-reported function was assessed via FFb-H-OA 2.0 questionnaire. Results: At PRE, unloading of the OP limb was 15.8% greater (P<.001, d=1.070) and antero-posterior and medio-lateral center of pressure RMS were 30-34% higher in THA than REF P<.05). Unloading was reduced by 12.8% towards a more equal distribution from PRE to POST (P<.001, d=0.874). Although medio-lateral stability improved between PRE and POST (OP: 14.8%, P=.024, d=0.397; NON: 13.1%, P=.015, d=0.321), antero-posterior stability was not significantly different. Self-reported physical function improved by 15.8% (P<.001, d=0.965). Conclusion(s): THA patients unload the OP limb and are dynamically more unstable during squatting in the early rehabilitation phase following total hip replacement than healthy adults. Although loading symmetry and medio-lateral stability improved to the level of healthy adults with rehabilitation, antero-posterior stability remained impaired. Measures of dynamic stability and load symmetry during squatting provide quantitative information that can be used to clinically monitor early functional recovery from THA.

CORR Insights® : loss of cement-bone interlock in retrieved tibial components from total knee arthroplasties

Most surgeons cement the tibial component in total knee replacement surgery. Mid-term registry data from a number of countries, including those from the United Kingdom and Australia, support the excellent survivorship of cemented tibial components. In spite of this success, results can always be improved, and cementing technique can play a role. Cementing technique on the tibia is not standardized, and surgeons still differ about the best ways to deliver cement into the cancellous bone of the upper tibia. Questions remain regarding whether to use a gun or a syringe to inject the cement into the cancellous bone of the tibial plateau . The ideal cement penetration into the tibial plateau is debated, though most reports suggest that 4 mm to 10 mm is ideal. Thicker mantles are thought to be dangerous due to the risk of bone necrosis, but there is little in the literature to support this contention...

The effect of knee flexion contracture following total knee arthroplasty on the energy cost of walking.

This study evaluated the energy cost of walking (Cw) with knee flexion contractures (FC) simulated with a knee brace, in total knee arthroplasty (TKA) recipients (n=16) and normal controls (n=15), and compared it to baseline (no brace). There was no significant difference in Cw between the groups at baseline but TKA recipients walked slower (P=0.048) and with greater knee flexion in this condition (P=0.003). Simulated FC significantly increased Cw in both groups (TKA P=0.020, control P=0.002) and this occurred when FC exceeded 20° in the TKA group and 15° in the controls. Reported perceived exertion was only significantly increased by FC in the control group (control P<0.001, TKA P=0.058). Simulated knee FCs less than 20° do not increase Cw or perceived exertion in TKA recipients.

Functional adaptation and rehabilitation following total knee replacement

This research project evaluated the biomechanical and functional outcomes of patients following total knee replacement measured at 6 and 12 months following surgery. Using more objective measures, patients were examined to determine changes in biomechanical and neuromuscular function during performance of activities of daily living such as walking, stair climbing and turning. Adaptations in joint positioning and performance were identified and progressive improvements were made in some areas of locomotor function. The findings of the study provided important objective information to contribute to the design and evaluation of prostheses, new surgical and rehabilitation procedures and improved recovery of patients.

Quantification of the total neuronal structure of the fear conditioning circuit of the lateral amygdala of the rat

During Pavlovian auditory fear conditioning a previously neutral auditory stimulus (CS) gains emotional significance through pairing with a noxious unconditioned stimulus (US). These associations are believed to be formed by way of plasticity at auditory input synapses on principal neurons in the lateral nucleus of the amygdala (LA). In order to begin to understand how fear memories are stored and processed by synaptic changes in the LA, we have quantified both the entire neural number and the sub-cellular structure of LA principal neurons.We first used stereological cell counting methods on Gimsa or GABA immunostained rat brain. We identified 60,322+/-1408 neurons in the LA unilaterally (n=7). Of these 16,917+/-471 were GABA positive. The intercalated nuclei were excluded from the counts and thus GABA cells are believed to represent GABAergic interneurons. The sub-nuclei of the LA were also independently counted. We then quantified the morphometric properties of in vitro electrophysiologically identified principal neurons of the LA, corrected for shrinkage in xyz planes. The total dendritic length was 9.97+/-2.57mm, with 21+/-4 nodes (n=6). Dendritic spine density was 0.19+/-0.03 spines/um (n=6). Intra-LA axon collaterals had a bouton density of 0.1+/-0.02 boutons/um (n=5). These data begin to reveal the finite cellular and sub-cellular processing capacity of the lateral amygdala, and should facilitate efforts to understand mechanisms of plasticity in LA.

Developments of the total entropy utility function for the dual purpose of model discrimination and parameter estimation in Bayesian design

The total entropy utility function is considered for the dual purpose of Bayesian design for model discrimination and parameter estimation. A sequential design setting is proposed where it is shown how to efficiently estimate the total entropy utility for a wide variety of data types. Utility estimation relies on forming particle approximations to a number of intractable integrals which is afforded by the use of the sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for Bayesian inference. A number of motivating examples are considered for demonstrating the performance of total entropy in comparison to utilities for model discrimination and parameter estimation. The results suggest that the total entropy utility selects designs which are efficient under both experimental goals with little compromise in achieving either goal. As such, the total entropy utility is advocated as a general utility for Bayesian design in the presence of model uncertainty.

IgE+ B cells are scarce, but allergen-specific B cells with a memory phenotype circulate in patients with allergic rhinitis

Background Despite the critical role of immunoglobulin E (IgE) in allergy, circulating IgE+ B cells are scarce. Here, we describe in patients with allergic rhinitis B cells with a memory phenotype responding to a prototypic aeroallergen. Methods Fifteen allergic rhinitis patients with grass pollen allergy and 13 control subjects were examined. Blood mononuclear cells stained with carboxyfluorescein diacetate succinimidyl ester (CFSE) were cultured with Bahia grass pollen. Proliferation and phenotype were assessed by multicolour flow cytometry. Results In blood of allergic rhinitis patients with high serum IgE to grass pollen, most IgEhi cells were CD123+ HLA-DR- basophils, with IgE for the major pollen allergen (Pas n 1). Both B and T cells from pollen-allergic donors showed higher proliferation to grass pollen than nonallergic donors (P = 0.002, and 0.010, respectively), whereas responses to vaccine antigens and mitogen did not differ between groups. Allergen-driven B cells that divided rapidly (CD19mid CD3- CFSElo) showed higher CD27 (P = 0.008) and lower CD19 (P = 0.004) and CD20 (P = 0.004) expression than B cells that were slow to respond to allergen (CD19hi CD3- CFSEmid). Moreover, rapidly dividing allergen-driven B cells (CD19mid CFSElo CD27hi) showed higher expression of the plasmablast marker CD38 compared with B cells (CD19hi CFSEmid CD27lo) that were slow to divide. Conclusion Patients with pollen allergy but not control donors have a population of circulating allergen-specific B cells with the phenotype and functional properties of adaptive memory B-cell responses. These cells could provide precursors for allergen-specific IgE production upon allergen re-exposure. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Induction of a Th1 immune response and suppression of IgE via immunotherapy with a recombinant hybrid molecule encapsulated in liposome-protamine-DNA nanoparticles in a model of experimental allergy

Liposome-protamine-DNA nanoparticles (LPD) are safe, effective, and non-toxic adjuvants that induce Th1-like immune responses. We hypothesized that encapsulation of allergens into liposomes could be an appropriate option for immunotherapy. The present study evaluated the immunotherapeutic potential of a recombinant hybrid molecule (rHM) encapsulated in LPD nanoparticles in a murine model of Chenopodium album allergy. BALB/c mice were sensitized with the allergen in alum, and the immunotherapy procedure was performed by subcutaneous injections of LPD-rHM, rHM, or empty LPD at weekly intervals. Sensitized mice developed a Th2-biased immune response characterized by strong specific IgG1 and IgE production, IL-4, and the transcription factor GATA3 in spleen cell cultures. Treatment with the LPD-rHM resulted in a reduction in IgE and a marked increase in IgG2a. The LPD-rHM induced allergen-specific responses with relatively high interferon-gamma production, as well as expression of the transcription factor T-bet in stimulated splenocytes. In addition, lymphoproliferative responses were higher in the LPD-rHM-treated mice than in the other groups. Removal of the nanoparticles from the rHM resulted in a decrease in the allergen's immunogenicity. These results indicate that the rHM complexed with LPD nanoparticles has a marked suppressive effect on the allergic response and caused a shift toward a Th1 pathway.

Specific IgE recognition of pollen allergens from subtropic grasses in patients from the subtropics

Background Pollens of subtropical grasses, Bahia (Paspalum notatum), Johnson (Sorghum halepense), and Bermuda (Cynodon dactylon), are common causes of respiratory allergies in subtropical regions worldwide. Objective To evaluate IgE cross-reactivity of grass pollen (GP) found in subtropical and temperate areas. Methods Case and control serum samples from 83 individuals from the subtropical region of Queensland were tested for IgE reactivity with GP extracts by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. A randomly sampled subset of 21 serum samples from patients with subtropical GP allergy were examined by ImmunoCAP and cross-inhibition assays. Results Fifty-four patients with allergic rhinitis and GP allergy had higher IgE reactivity with P notatum and C dactylon than with a mixture of 5 temperate GPs. For 90% of 21 GP allergic serum samples, P notatum, S halepense, or C dactylon specific IgE concentrations were higher than temperate GP specific IgE, and GP specific IgE had higher correlations of subtropical GP (r = 0.771-0.950) than temperate GP (r = 0.317-0.677). In most patients (71%-100%), IgE with P notatum, S halepense, or C dactylon GPs was inhibited better by subtropical GP than temperate GP. When the temperate GP mixture achieved 50% inhibition of IgE with subtropical GP, there was a 39- to 67-fold difference in concentrations giving 50% inhibition and significant differences in maximum inhibition for S halepense and P notatum GP relative to temperate GP. Conclusion Patients living in a subtropical region had species specific IgE recognition of subtropical GP. Most GP allergic patients in Queensland would benefit from allergen specific immunotherapy with a standardized content of subtropical GP allergens.

The enigma of IgE+ B-cell memory in human subjects

Our understanding of the origin and fate of the IgE-switched B cell has been markedly improved by studies in mouse models. The immediate precursor of the IgE-switched B cell is either a relatively naive nonswitched B cell or a mature IgG-switched B cell. These 2 routes are referred to as the direct and indirect pathways, respectively. IgE responses derived from each pathway differ significantly, largely reflecting the difference in time spent in a germinal center and thus time for clonal expansion, somatic hypermutation, affinity maturation, and acquisition of a memory phenotype. The clinical and therapeutic implications for IgE responses in human subjects are still a matter of debate, largely because the immunization procedures used in the animal models are significantly different from classical atopic sensitization to allergens from pollen and mites. On the basis of the limited information available, it seems likely that these atopic IgE responses are characterized by a relatively low IgG/IgE ratio, low B-cell memory, and modest affinity maturation, which fits well with the direct switching pathway. It is still unresolved how the IgE response evolves to cover a wide epitope repertoire involving many epitopes per allergen, as well as many different allergens from a single allergen source. © 2013 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology.