Modeling random effect and excess zeros in road traffic accident prediction

Poisson distribution has often been used for count like accident data. Negative Binomial (NB) distribution has been adopted in the count data to take care of the over-dispersion problem. However, Poisson and NB distributions are incapable of taking into account some unobserved heterogeneities due to spatial and temporal effects of accident data. To overcome this problem, Random Effect models have been developed. Again another challenge with existing traffic accident prediction models is the distribution of excess zero accident observations in some accident data. Although Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model is capable of handling the dual-state system in accident data with excess zero observations, it does not accommodate the within-location correlation and between-location correlation heterogeneities which are the basic motivations for the need of the Random Effect models. This paper proposes an effective way of fitting ZIP model with location specific random effects and for model calibration and assessment the Bayesian analysis is recommended.

Benign Epilepsy with Centro-temporal Spikes: Spike Triggered fMRI Shows Somato-sensory Cortex Activity

Summary:  Objective: We performed spike triggered functional MRI (fMRI) in a 12 year old girl with Benign Epilepsy with Centro-temporal Spikes (BECTS) and left-sided spikes. Our aim was to demonstrate the cerebral origin of her interictal spikes. Methods: EEG was recorded within the 3 Tesla MRI. Whole brain fMRI images were acquired, beginning 2–3 seconds after spikes. Baseline fMRI images were acquired when there were no spikes for 20 seconds. Image sets were compared with the Student's t-test. Results: Ten spike and 20 baseline brain volumes were analysed. Focal activiation was seen in the inferior left sensorimotor cortex near the face area. The anterior cingulate was more active during baseline than spikes. Conclusions: Left sided epileptiform activity in this patient with BECTS is associated with fMRI activation in the left face region of the somatosensory cortex, which would be consistent with the facial sensorimotor involvement in BECT seizures. The presence of BOLD signal change in other regions raises the possibility that the scalp recorded field of this patient with BECTs may reflect electrical change in more than one brain region.

Myoinositol Abnormalities in Temporal Lobe Epilepsy

Purpose: This study used magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) to examine metabolite abnormalities in the temporal and frontal lobe of patients with temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) of differing severity. Methods: We investigated myoinositol in TLE by using short-echo MRS in 34 TLE patients [26 late onset (LO-TLE), eight hippocampal sclerosis (HS-TLE)], and 16 controls. Single-voxel short-echo (35 ms) MR spectra of temporal and frontal lobes were acquired at 1.5 T and analyzed by using LCModel. Results: The temporal lobe ipsilateral to seizure origin in HS-TLE, but not LO-TLE, had reduced N-acetylaspartate (NA) and elevated myoinositol (MI; HS-TLE NA, 7.8 ± 1.9 mM, control NA, 9.2 ± 1.3 mM; p < 0.05; HS-TLE MI, 6.1 ± 1.6 mM, control mI 4.9 ± 0.8 mM, p< 0.05). Frontal lobe MI was low in both patient groups (LO-TLE, 4.3 ± 0.8 mM; p < 0.05; HS-TLE, 3.6 ±.05 mM; p < 0.001; controls, 4.8 ± 0.5 mM). Ipsilateral frontal lobes had lower MI (3.8 ± 0.7 mM; p < 0.01) than contralateral frontal lobes (4.3 ± 0.8 mM; p < 0.05). Conclusions: MI changes may distinguish between the seizure focus, where MI is increased, and areas of seizure spread where MI is decreased.

Influence of medium range transport of particles from nucleation burst on particle number concentration within the urban airshed

An elevated particle number concentration (PNC) observed during nucleation events could play a significant contribution to the total particle load and therefore to the air pollution in the urban environments. Therefore, a field measurement study of PNC was commenced to investigate the temporal and spatial variations of PNC within the urban airshed of Brisbane, Australia. PNC was monitored at urban (QUT), roadside (WOO) and semi-urban (ROC) areas around the Brisbane region during 2009. During the morning traffic peak period, the highest relative fraction of PNC reached about 5% at QUT and WOO on weekdays. PNC peaks were observed around noon, which correlated with the highest solar radiation levels at all three stations, thus suggesting that high PNC levels were likely to be associated with new particle formation caused by photochemical reactions. Wind rose plots showed relatively higher PNC for the NE direction, which was associated with industrial pollution, accounting for 12%, 9% and 14% of overall PNC at QUT, WOO and ROC, respectively. Although there was no significant correlation between PNC at each station, the variation of PNC was well correlated among three stations during regional nucleation events. In addition, PNC at ROC was significantly influenced by upwind urban pollution during the nucleation burst events, with the average enrichment factor of 15.4. This study provides an insight into the influence of regional nucleation events on PNC in the Brisbane region and it the first study to quantify the effect of urban pollution on semi-urban PNC through the nucleation events. © 2012 Author(s).

Spatial and temporal clusters of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Objective To identify the spatial and temporal clusters of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease in Queensland in Australia, using geographical information systems (GIS) and spatial scan statistic (SaTScan). Methods We obtained BFV disease cases, population and statistical local areas boundary data from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Statistics respectively during 1992-2008 for Queensland. A retrospective Poisson-based analysis using SaTScan software and method was conducted in order to identify both purely spatial and space-time BFV disease high-rate clusters. A spatial cluster size of a proportion of the population and a 200km circle radius and varying time windows from 1 month to 12 months were chosen (for the space-time analysis). Results The spatial scan statistic detected a most likely significant purely spatial cluster (including 23 SLAs) and a most likely significant space-time cluster (including 24 SLAs) in approximately the same location. Significant secondary clusters were also identified from both the analyses in several locations. Conclusions This study provides evidence of the existence of statistically significant BFV disease clusters in Queensland, Australia. The study also demonstrated the relevance and applicability of SaTScan in analysing on-going surveillance data to identify clusters to facilitate the development of effective BFV disease prevention and control strategies in Queensland, Australia.

Spatio-temporal patterns of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Background Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is a common and wide-spread mosquito-borne disease in Australia. This study investigated the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia using geographical information system (GIS) tools and geostatistical analysis. Methods/Principal Findings We calculated the incidence rates and standardised incidence rates of BFV disease. Moran's I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidences. Spatial dynamics of BFV disease was examined using semi-variogram analysis. Interpolation techniques were applied to visualise and display the spatial distribution of BFV disease in statistical local areas (SLAs) throughout Queensland. Mapping of BFV disease by SLAs reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time. Statistically significant differences in BFV incidence rates were identified among age groups (χ2 = 7587, df = 7327,p<0.01). There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidence for all four periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.1506 to 0.2901 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. Conclusions/Significance This is the first study to examine spatial and temporal variation in the incidence rates of BFV disease across Queensland using GIS and geostatistics. The BFV transmission varied with age and gender, which may be due to exposure rates or behavioural risk factors. There are differences in the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease which may be related to local socio-ecological and environmental factors. These research findings may have implications in the BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

A new analytic approach for power system fault diagnosis employing the temporal information of alarm messages

Traditional analytic models for power system fault diagnosis are usually formulated as an unconstrained 0–1 integer programming problem. The key issue of the models is to seek the fault hypothesis that minimizes the discrepancy between the actual and the expected states of the concerned protective relays and circuit breakers. The temporal information of alarm messages has not been well utilized in these methods, and as a result, the diagnosis results may be not unique and hence indefinite, especially when complicated and multiple faults occur. In order to solve this problem, this paper presents a novel analytic model employing the temporal information of alarm messages along with the concept of related path. The temporal relationship among the actions of protective relays and circuit breakers, and the different protection configurations in a modern power system can be reasonably represented by the developed model, and therefore, the diagnosed results will be more definite under different circumstances of faults. Finally, an actual power system fault was served to verify the proposed method.

Correlation-based damage detection for complicated truss bridges using multi-layer genetic algorithms

The study presents a multi-layer genetic algorithm (GA) approach using correlation-based methods to facilitate damage determination for through-truss bridge structures. To begin, the structure’s damage-suspicious elements are divided into several groups. In the first GA layer, the damage is initially optimised for all groups using correlation objective function. In the second layer, the groups are combined to larger groups and the optimisation starts over at the normalised point of the first layer result. Then the identification process repeats until reaching the final layer where one group includes all structural elements and only minor optimisations are required to fine tune the final result. Several damage scenarios on a complicated through-truss bridge example are nominated to address the proposed approach’s effectiveness. Structural modal strain energy has been employed as the variable vector in the correlation function for damage determination. Simulations and comparison with the traditional single-layer optimisation shows that the proposed approach is efficient and feasible for complicated truss bridge structures when the measurement noise is taken into account.

Forecasting volatility and correlation : the role of option implied measures

Forecasts of volatility and correlation are important inputs into many practical financial problems. Broadly speaking, there are two ways of generating forecasts of these variables. Firstly, time-series models apply a statistical weighting scheme to historical measurements of the variable of interest. The alternative methodology extracts forecasts from the market traded value of option contracts. An efficient options market should be able to produce superior forecasts as it utilises a larger information set of not only historical information but also the market equilibrium expectation of options market participants. While much research has been conducted into the relative merits of these approaches, this thesis extends the literature along several lines through three empirical studies. Firstly, it is demonstrated that there exist statistically significant benefits to taking the volatility risk premium into account for the implied volatility for the purposes of univariate volatility forecasting. Secondly, high-frequency option implied measures are shown to lead to superior forecasts of the intraday stochastic component of intraday volatility and that these then lead on to superior forecasts of intraday total volatility. Finally, the use of realised and option implied measures of equicorrelation are shown to dominate measures based on daily returns.

Innovative damage assessment of steel truss bridges using modal strain energy correlation

As a part of vital infrastructure and transportation network, bridge structures must function safely at all times. Bridges are designed to have a long life span. At any point in time, however, some bridges are aged. The ageing of bridge structures, given the rapidly growing demand of heavy and fast inter-city passages and continuous increase of freight transportation, would require diligence on bridge owners to ensure that the infrastructure is healthy at reasonable cost. In recent decades, a new technique, structural health monitoring (SHM), has emerged to meet this challenge. In this new engineering discipline, structural modal identification and damage detection have formed a vital component. Witnessed by an increasing number of publications is that the change in vibration characteristics is widely and deeply investigated to assess structural damage. Although a number of publications have addressed the feasibility of various methods through experimental verifications, few of them have focused on steel truss bridges. Finding a feasible vibration-based damage indicator for steel truss bridges and solving the difficulties in practical modal identification to support damage detection motivated this research project. This research was to derive an innovative method to assess structural damage in steel truss bridges. First, it proposed a new damage indicator that relies on optimising the correlation between theoretical and measured modal strain energy. The optimisation is powered by a newly proposed multilayer genetic algorithm. In addition, a selection criterion for damage-sensitive modes has been studied to achieve more efficient and accurate damage detection results. Second, in order to support the proposed damage indicator, the research studied the applications of two state-of-the-art modal identification techniques by considering some practical difficulties: the limited instrumentation, the influence of environmental noise, the difficulties in finite element model updating, and the data selection problem in the output-only modal identification methods. The numerical (by a planer truss model) and experimental (by a laboratory through truss bridge) verifications have proved the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed damage detection scheme. The modal strain energy-based indicator was found to be sensitive to the damage in steel truss bridges with incomplete measurement. It has shown the damage indicator's potential in practical applications of steel truss bridges. Lastly, the achievement and limitation of this study, and lessons learnt from the modal analysis have been summarised.

Environmental and economic evaluation of N fertilizer rates in a maize crop in Italy : a spatial and temporal analysis using crop models

Crop simulation models have the potential to assess the risk associated with the selection of a specific N fertilizer rate, by integrating the effects of soil-crop interactions on crop growth under different pedo-climatic and management conditions. The objective of this study was to simulate the environmental and economic impact (nitrate leaching and N2O emissions) of a spatially variable N fertilizer application in an irrigated maize field in Italy. The validated SALUS model was run with 5 nitrogen rates scenarios, 50, 100, 150, 200, and 250 kg N ha−1, with the latter being the N fertilization adopted by the farmer. The long-term (25 years) simulations were performed on two previously identified spatially and temporally stable zones, a high yielding and low yielding zone. The simulation results showed that N fertilizer rate can be reduced without affecting yield and net return. The marginal net return was on average higher for the high yield zone, with values ranging from 1550 to 2650 € ha−1 for the 200 N and 1485 to 2875 € ha−1 for the 250 N. N leaching varied between 16.4 and 19.3 kg N ha−1 for the 200 N and the 250 N in the high yield zone. In the low yield zone, the 250 N had a significantly higher N leaching. N2O emissions varied between 0.28 kg N2O ha−1 for the 50 kg N ha−1 rate to a maximum of 1.41 kg N2O ha−1 for the 250 kg N ha−1 rate.