Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis of socio-ecologic drivers of Ross River Virus transmission in Queensland, Australia

This study aims to examine the impact of socio-ecologic factors on the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) infection and to identify areas prone to social and ecologic-driven epidemics in Queensland, Australia. We used a Bayesian spatiotemporal conditional autoregressive model to quantify the relationship between monthly variation of RRV incidence and socio-ecologic factors and to determine spatiotemporal patterns. Our results show that the average increase in monthly RRV incidence was 2.4% (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.1–4.5%) and 2.0% (95% CrI: 1.6–2.3%) for a 1°C increase in monthly average maximum temperature and a 10 mm increase in monthly average rainfall, respectively. A significant spatiotemporal variation and interactive effect between temperature and rainfall on RRV incidence were found. No association between Socio-economic Index for Areas (SEIFA) and RRV was observed. The transmission of RRV in Queensland, Australia appeared to be primarily driven by ecologic variables rather than social factors.

Informational city

Many cities worldwide face the prospect of major transformation as the world moves towards a global information order. In this new era, urban economies are being radically altered by dynamic processes of economic and spatial restructuring. The result is the creation of ‘informational cities’ or its new and more popular name, ‘knowledge cities’. For the last two centuries, social production had been primarily understood and shaped by neo-classical economic thought that recognized only three factors of production: land, labor and capital. Knowledge, education, and intellectual capacity were secondary, if not incidental, factors. Human capital was assumed to be either embedded in labor or just one of numerous categories of capital. In the last decades, it has become apparent that knowledge is sufficiently important to deserve recognition as a fourth factor of production. Knowledge and information and the social and technological settings for their production and communication are now seen as keys to development and economic prosperity. The rise of knowledge-based opportunity has, in many cases, been accompanied by a concomitant decline in traditional industrial activity. The replacement of physical commodity production by more abstract forms of production (e.g. information, ideas, and knowledge) has, however paradoxically, reinforced the importance of central places and led to the formation of knowledge cities. Knowledge is produced, marketed and exchanged mainly in cities. Therefore, knowledge cities aim to assist decision-makers in making their cities compatible with the knowledge economy and thus able to compete with other cities. Knowledge cities enable their citizens to foster knowledge creation, knowledge exchange and innovation. They also encourage the continuous creation, sharing, evaluation, renewal and update of knowledge. To compete nationally and internationally, cities need knowledge infrastructures (e.g. universities, research and development institutes); a concentration of well-educated people; technological, mainly electronic, infrastructure; and connections to the global economy (e.g. international companies and finance institutions for trade and investment). Moreover, they must possess the people and things necessary for the production of knowledge and, as importantly, function as breeding grounds for talent and innovation. The economy of a knowledge city creates high value-added products using research, technology, and brainpower. Private and the public sectors value knowledge, spend money on its discovery and dissemination and, ultimately, harness it to create goods and services. Although many cities call themselves knowledge cities, currently, only a few cities around the world (e.g., Barcelona, Delft, Dublin, Montreal, Munich, and Stockholm) have earned that label. Many other cities aspire to the status of knowledge city through urban development programs that target knowledge-based urban development. Examples include Copenhagen, Dubai, Manchester, Melbourne, Monterrey, Singapore, and Shanghai. Knowledge-Based Urban Development To date, the development of most knowledge cities has proceeded organically as a dependent and derivative effect of global market forces. Urban and regional planning has responded slowly, and sometimes not at all, to the challenges and the opportunities of the knowledge city. That is changing, however. Knowledge-based urban development potentially brings both economic prosperity and a sustainable socio-spatial order. Its goal is to produce and circulate abstract work. The globalization of the world in the last decades of the twentieth century was a dialectical process. On one hand, as the tyranny of distance was eroded, economic networks of production and consumption were constituted at a global scale. At the same time, spatial proximity remained as important as ever, if not more so, for knowledge-based urban development. Mediated by information and communication technology, personal contact, and the medium of tacit knowledge, organizational and institutional interactions are still closely associated with spatial proximity. The clustering of knowledge production is essential for fostering innovation and wealth creation. The social benefits of knowledge-based urban development extend beyond aggregate economic growth. On the one hand is the possibility of a particularly resilient form of urban development secured in a network of connections anchored at local, national, and global coordinates. On the other hand, quality of place and life, defined by the level of public service (e.g. health and education) and by the conservation and development of the cultural, aesthetic and ecological values give cities their character and attract or repel the creative class of knowledge workers, is a prerequisite for successful knowledge-based urban development. The goal is a secure economy in a human setting: in short, smart growth or sustainable urban development.

Enhancing security and continuity management at international airports

Operators of busy contemporary airports have to balance tensions between the timely flow of passengers, flight operations, the conduct of commercial business activities and the effective application of security processes. In addition to specific onsite issues airport operators liaise with a range of organisations which set and enforce aviation-related policies and regulations as well as border security agencies responsible for customs, quarantine and immigration, in addition to first response security services. The challenging demands of coordinating and planning in such complex socio-technical contexts place considerable pressure on airport management to facilitate coordination of what are often conflicting goals and expectations among groups that have standing in respect to safe and secure air travel. What are, as yet, significantly unexplored issues in large airports are options for the optimal coordination of efforts from the range of public and private sector participants active in airport security and crisis management. A further aspect of this issue is how airport management systems operate when there is a transition from business-as-usual into an emergency/crisis situation and then, on recovery, back to ‘normal’ functioning. Business Continuity Planning (BCP), incorporating sub-plans for emergency response, continuation of output and recovery of degraded operating capacity, would fit such a context. The implementation of BCP practices in such a significant high security setting offers considerable potential benefit yet entails considerable challenges. This paper presents early results of a 4 year nationally funded industry-based research project examining the merger of Business Continuity Planning and Transport Security Planning as a means of generating capability for improved security and reliability and, ultimately, enhanced resilience in major airports. The project is part of a larger research program on the Design of Secure Airports that includes most of the gazetted ‘first response’ international airports in Australia, key Aviation industry groups and all aviation-related border and security regulators as collaborative partners. The paper examines a number of initial themes in the research, including: ? Approaches to integrating Business Continuity & Aviation Security Planning within airport operations; ? Assessment of gaps in management protocols and operational capacities for identifying and responding to crises within and across critical aviation infrastructure; ? Identification of convergent and divergent approaches to crisis management used across Austral-Asia and their alignment to planned and possible infrastructure evolution.

Networks cities and ecological habitats

As the world’s rural populations continue to migrate from farmland to sprawling cities, transport networks form an impenetrable maze within which monocultures of urban form erupt from the spaces in‐between. These urban monocultures are as problematic to human activity in cities as cropping monocultures are to ecosystems in regional landscapes. In China, the speed of urbanisation is exacerbating the production of mono‐functional private and public spaces. Edges are tightly controlled. Barriers and management practices at these boundaries are discouraging the formation of new synergistic relationships, critical in the long‐term stability of ecosystems that host urban habitats. Some urban planners, engineers, urban designers, architects and landscape architects have recognised these shortcomings in contemporary Chinese cities. The ideology of sustainability, while critically debated, is bringing together thinking people in these and other professions under the umbrella of an ecological ethic. This essay aims to apply landscape ecology theory, a conceptual framework used by many professionals involved in land development processes, to a concept being developed by BAU International called Networks Cities: a city with its various land uses arranged in nets of continuity, adjacency, and superposition. It will consider six lesser‐known concepts in relation to creating enhanced human activity along (un)structured edges between proposed nets and suggest new frontiers that might be challenged in an eco‐city. Ecological theory suggests that sustaining biodiversity in regions and landscapes depends on habitat distribution patterns. Flora and fauna biologists have long studied edge habitats and have been confounded by the paradox that maximising the breadth of edges is detrimental to specialist species but favourable to generalist species. Generalist species of plants and animals tolerate frequent change in the landscape, frequenting two or more habitats for their survival. Specialist species are less tolerant of change, having specific habitat requirements during their life cycle. Protecting species richness then may be at odds with increasing mixed habitats or mixed‐use zones that are dynamic places where diverse activities occur. Forman (1995) in his book Land Mosaics however argues that these two objectives of land use management are entirely compatible. He postulates that an edge may be comprised of many small patches, corridors or convoluting boundaries of large patches. Many ecocentrists now consider humans to be just another species inhabiting the ecological environments of our cities. Hence habitat distribution theory may be useful in planning and designing better human habitats in a rapidly urbanising context like China. In less‐constructed environments, boundaries and edges provide important opportunities for the movement of multi‐habitat species into, along and from adjacent land use areas. For instance, invasive plants may escape into a national park from domestic gardens while wildlife may forage on garden plants in adjoining residential areas. It is at these interfaces that human interactions too flow backward and forward between land types. Spray applications of substances by farmers on cropland may disturb neighbouring homeowners while suburban residents may help themselves to farm produce on neighbouring orchards. Edge environments are some of the most dynamic and contested spaces in the landscape. Since most of us require access to at least two or three habitats diurnally, weekly, monthly or seasonally, their proximity to each other becomes critical in our attempts to improve the sustainability of our cities.

Shijiazhuang ecological landscape planning and design comprehensive improvement program for the Hutuo River

International practice-led design research in landscape architecture has identified water quality and water availability as two of the most important environmental issues in developing countries. China is particularly focused on improving water supplies for its rural and urban populations. However a significant gap in knowledge exists between urban planning and environmental engineering in China as to how to design Chinese public open spaces to reduce water pollution in urban rivers. This project responded to traditional zoning methods in Shijiazhuang City, Hebei Province, by proposing a range of water sensitive design innovations from lake construction to planting design to modify standardised engineering solutions in a Chinese context.

A qualitative investigation of socio-cultural factors influencing binge-drinking : a multi-country study

Despite substantial investment by governments in social marketing campaigns and the introduction of various legislative and supply controls on alcohol, the binge drinking phenomenon amongst young people continues unabated in many countries and appears to be spreading to others. This paper examines drinking behaviour amongst university students from 50 countries across Europe, North America and the Asia Pacific region and argues that more needs to be done in understanding socio-cultural factors. To date, little is known of the specific socio-cultural factors that are common in countries that have high drinking behaviour compared to countries that have moderate bingedrinking behaviour. Using a marketing systems approach, this exploratory study identifies two key themes that distinguish these countries, namely family influences and peer influences.

The role of ecological constraints on expertise development

The role of ecological constraints on the acquisition of sport expertise is gaining attention in sport science, although more research is needed. In this position paper we provide an ecological explanation for expertise acquisition, as alluding to qualitative data that support the idea that unconventional, even aversive, environmental constraints may play an important role in the development of world-class athletes. We exemplify this argument by profiling the role of unconventional practice environments using association football in Brazilian society as a task vehicle. Contrary to the traditional idea that only deliberate training and development programmes can lead to the evolution of expertise, we propose how expert performance might be gained through highly unstructured activities in Brazilian football, that represent a powerful and little understood implicit environmental constraint that can lead to expertise development in sport.

The ecological dynamics of 1v1 sub-phases in association football

This paper analyzes effects of different practice task constraints on heart rate (HR) variability during 4v4 smallsided football games. Participants were sixteen football players divided into two age groups (U13, Mean age: 12.4±0.5 yrs; U15: 14.6±0.5). The task consisted of a 4v4 sub-phase without goalkeepers, on a 25x15 m field, of 15 minutes duration with an active recovery period of 6 minutes between each condition. We recorded players’ heart rates using heart rate monitors (Polar Team System, Polar Electro, Kempele, Finland) as scoring mode was manipulated (line goal: scoring by dribbling past an extended line; double goal: scoring in either of two lateral goals; and central goal: scoring only in one goal). Subsequently, %HR reserve was calculated with the Karvonen formula. We performed a time-series analysis of HR for each individual in each condition. Mean data for intra-participant variability showed that autocorrelation function was associated with more short-range dependence processes in the “line goal” condition, compared to other conditions, demonstrating that the “line goal” constraint induced more randomness in HR response. Relative to inter-individual variability, line goal constraints demonstrated lower %CV and %RMSD (U13: 9% and 19%; U15: 10% and 19%) compared with double goal (U13: 12% and 21%; U15: 12% and 21%) and central goal (U13: 14% and 24%; U15: 13% and 24%) task constraints, respectively. Results suggested that line goal constraints imposed more randomness on cardiovascular stimulation of each individual and lower inter-individual variability than double goal and central goal constraints.

The ecological approach to visual perception and the actor performance captured in the gaming landscape

The use of Performance Capture techniques in the creation of games that involve Motion Capture is a relatively new phenomenon. To date there is no prescribed methodology that prepares actors for the rigors of this new industry and as such there are many questions to be answered around how actors navigate these environments successfully when all available training and theoretical material is focused on performance for theatre and film. This article proposes that through a deployment of an Ecological Approach to Visual Perception we may begin to chart this territory for actors and begin to contend with the demands of performing for the motion captured gaming scenario.

Sustaining the ecological, social and economic values of the forests of Southern Tasmania

This thesis articulates a methodology that can be applied to the analysis and design of underlying organisational structures and processes that will consistently and effectively address ‘wicked problems’ (the most difficult class of problems that we can conceptualise: problems which consist of ‘clusters’ of problems; problems within these clusters cannot be solved in isolation from one another, and include sociopolitical and moral-spiritual issues (Rittel and Webber 1973)) in forestry. This transdisciplinary methodology has been developed from the perspective of institutional economics synthesised with perspectives from ecological economics and system dynamics. The institutionalist policymaking framework provides an approach for the explicit development of holistic policy. An illustrative application of this framework has been applied to the wicked problem of forestry in southern Tasmania as an example of the applicability of the approach in the Australian context. To date all attempts to seek solutions to that prevailing wicked problem set have relied on non-reflexive, partial and highly reductionist thinking. A formal assessment of prevailing governance and process arrangements applying to that particular forestry industry has been undertaken using the social fabric matrix. This methodology lies at the heart of the institutionalist policymaking framework, and allows for the systematic exploration of elaborately complex causal links and relationships, such as are present in southern Tasmania. Some possible attributes of an alternative approach to forest management that sustains ecological, social and economic values of forests have been articulated as indicative of the alternative policy and management outcomes that real-world application of this transdisciplinary, discursive and reflexive framework may crystallise. Substantive and lasting solutions to wicked problems need to be formed endogenously, that is, from within the system. The institutionalist policymaking framework is a vehicle through which this endogenous creation of solutions to wicked problems may be realised.

Ecological aspects of biosecurity surveillance design for the detection of multiple invasive animal species

Complex surveillance problems are common in biosecurity, such as prioritizing detection among multiple invasive species, specifying risk over a heterogeneous landscape, combining multiple sources of surveillance data, designing for specified power to detect, resource management, and collateral effects on the environment. Moreover, when designing for multiple target species, inherent biological differences among species result in different ecological models underpinning the individual surveillance systems for each. Species are likely to have different habitat requirements, different introduction mechanisms and locations, require different methods of detection, have different levels of detectability, and vary in rates of movement and spread. Often there is a further challenge of a lack of knowledge, literature, or data, for any number of the above problems. Even so, governments and industry need to proceed with surveillance programs which aim to detect incursions in order to meet environmental, social and political requirements. We present an approach taken to meet these challenges in one comprehensive and statistically powerful surveillance design for non-indigenous terrestrial vertebrates on Barrow Island, a high conservation nature reserve off the Western Australian coast. Here, the possibility of incursions is increased due to construction and expanding industry on the island. The design, which includes mammals, amphibians and reptiles, provides a complete surveillance program for most potential terrestrial vertebrate invaders. Individual surveillance systems were developed for various potential invaders, and then integrated into an overall surveillance system which meets the above challenges using a statistical model and expert elicitation. We discuss the ecological basis for the design, the flexibility of the surveillance scheme, how it meets the above challenges, design limitations, and how it can be updated as data are collected as a basis for adaptive management.

Ecological leadership : a new perspective on leadership

Given today's focus on the state of the environment and the developing role of corporate social leadership in could be argued that there is a need for the development of successful business leaders who have a positive relationship to the natural world. Gifford (2007) argued that any real change in sustainable practice will most likely happen at an individual level, through changes in attitudes and everyday behaviour. For this change to happen, an individual will need to feel connected to the natural world (Dunbar, 2004; Schroll, 2007). Roszak (1992) developed the notion of ecopsychology specifically to explore this relationship and suggest new ways to generate greater environmental awareness as well as ameliorate psychological problems caused or exacerbated by widespread alienation from nature. From this perspective it seems imperative that we develop people centred leader’s who feel connected to the natural world whilst demonstrating solid performance, as measured by organisational and social indicators. This paper presents information from an International research project that might add further insights into the role outdoor education plays in the development of generic leaders who have a positive relationship to the natural world. Three questionnaires, an established measurement of generic transformational leadership (MLQ) and two established measurement of attitudes to and feelings about the natural world (the New Ecological Paradigm Scale and the Connectedness to Nature Scale), were administered to 214 (males, n=138 and females, n=76) International outdoor leaders with the implicit aim of assessing the nexus of transformational leadership theory and adventure based leadership development. The large and diverse cohort of participants has provided ground-breaking insights into transformational and ecological leadership styles. This paper outlines a descriptive analysis of findings and offers valuable information for those involved in training leaders. Throughout this presentation participants will be encouraged to contextualise the information for their specific circumstance.

Tackling ‘Wicked’ problems holistically with institutionalist policymaking

One of our most pressing needs in creating a more sustainable world is the explicit development of holistic policy. This is becoming increasingly apparent as we are faced with more and more ‘wicked problems', the most difficult class of problems that we can conceptualize. Such problems consist of ‘clusters’ of problems, and include socio-political and moral-spiritual issues. This paper articulates a methodology that can be applied to the analysis and design of underlying organizational structures and processes that will consistently and effectively address wicked problems while being consistent with the advocated 'learning by doing' approach to change management and policy making. This transdisciplinary methodology—known as the institutionalist policymaking framework—has been developed from the perspective of institutional economics synthesized with perspectives from ecological economics and system dynamics. In particular it draws on the work first presented in Hayden’s 1993 paper ‘Institutionalist Policymaking’—and further developed in his 2006 book, at the heart of which lies the SFM—and the applicability of this approach in tackling complex and wicked problems.

Weekly activity-travel behaviour in rural Northern Ireland : differences by context and socio-demographic

Despite a wide variation in access to goods and services between rural areas, common policy interventions are often proposed in Northern Ireland. Questions remain as to the level and form of policy differentiation that is required, if any, both within and between different rural areas. This issue is investigated in this paper through the analysis of activity-travel patterns of individuals living in two rural areas with different levels of area accessibility and area mobility. Three focus groups, 299 questionnaires and 89 activity-travel diaries for 7 days were collected for individuals from these areas. Regression analyses were employed to explore the degree to which different factors influence activity travel behaviour. The results indicate that individuals from rural areas with a higher level of accessibility are more integrated within their local community and as a result, are potentially less at risk of being excluded from society due to immobility. Differences, however, were also found between different groups within an area (e.g. non-car owning individuals who were more reliant on walking, and low-income individuals who made trips of a shorter distance). Based on the study findings and a review of existing policies, this research highlights the need to tailor policy responses to reflect the particular sets of circumstances exhibited in different areas.

Systematic policymaking with the institutionalist policymaking framework

One of our most pressing needs in creating a more sustainable world is the explicit development of holistic policy. This is becoming increasingly apparent as we are faced with more and more ‘wicked problems'—the most difficult class of problems that we can conceptualise: problems which consist of ‘clusters’ of problems; problems within these clusters cannot be solved in isolation from one another, and include socio-political and moral-spiritual issues (see Rittel and Webber 1973). This paper articulates a methodology that can be applied to the analysis and design of underlying organisational structures and processes that will consistently and effectively address wicked problems. This transdisciplinary methodology—known as the institutionalist policymaking framework—has been developed from the perspective of institutional economics synthesised with perspectives from ecological economics and system dynamics. Substantive and lasting solutions to wicked problems need to be formed endogenously, that is, from within the system. The institutionalist policymaking framework is a transdisciplinary, discursive and reflexive vehicle through which this endogenous creation of solutions to wicked problems may be realised.