Modeling random effect and excess zeros in road traffic accident prediction

Poisson distribution has often been used for count like accident data. Negative Binomial (NB) distribution has been adopted in the count data to take care of the over-dispersion problem. However, Poisson and NB distributions are incapable of taking into account some unobserved heterogeneities due to spatial and temporal effects of accident data. To overcome this problem, Random Effect models have been developed. Again another challenge with existing traffic accident prediction models is the distribution of excess zero accident observations in some accident data. Although Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model is capable of handling the dual-state system in accident data with excess zero observations, it does not accommodate the within-location correlation and between-location correlation heterogeneities which are the basic motivations for the need of the Random Effect models. This paper proposes an effective way of fitting ZIP model with location specific random effects and for model calibration and assessment the Bayesian analysis is recommended.

Proactive management of collision risks in port waters using navigational traffic conflicts

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns in many seaports. To address this safety concern, a comprehensive and structured method of collision risk management is necessary. Traditionally management of port water collision risks has been relied on historical collision data. However, this collision-data-based approach is hampered by several shortcomings, such as randomness and rarity of collision occurrence leading to obtaining insufficient number of samples for a sound statistical analysis, insufficiency in explaining collision causation, and reactive approach to safety. A promising alternative approach that overcomes these shortcomings is the navigational traffic conflict technique that uses traffic conflicts as an alternative to the collision data. This paper proposes a collision risk management method by utilizing the principles of this technique. This risk management method allows safety analysts to diagnose safety deficiencies in a proactive manner, which, consequently, has great potential for managing collision risks in a fast, reliable and efficient manner.

Concentration and oxidative potential of on-road particle emissions and their relationship with traffic composition : Relevance to exposure assessment

Particles emitted by vehicles are known to cause detrimental health effects, with their size and oxidative potential among the main factors responsible. Therefore, understanding the relationship between traffic composition and both the physical characteristics and oxidative potential of particles is critical. To contribute to the limited knowledge base in this area, we investigated this relationship in a 4.5 km road tunnel in Brisbane, Australia. On-road concentrations of ultrafine particles (<100 nm, UFPs), fine particles (PM2.5), CO, CO2 and particle associated reactive oxygen species (ROS) were measured using vehicle-based mobile sampling. UFPs were measured using a condensation particle counter and PM2.5 with a DustTrak aerosol photometer. A new profluorescent nitroxide probe, BPEAnit, was used to determine ROS levels. Comparative measurements were also performed on an above-ground road to assess the role of emission dilution on the parameters measured. The profile of UFP and PM2.5 concentration with distance through the tunnel was determined, and demonstrated relationships with both road gradient and tunnel ventilation. ROS levels in the tunnel were found to be high compared to an open road with similar traffic characteristics, which was attributed to the substantial difference in estimated emission dilution ratios on the two roadways. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed that the levels of pollutants and ROS were generally better correlated with total traffic count, rather than the traffic composition (i.e. diesel and gasoline-powered vehicles). A possible reason for the lack of correlation with HDV, which has previously been shown to be strongly associated with UFPs especially, was the low absolute numbers encountered during the sampling. This may have made their contribution to in-tunnel pollution largely indistinguishable from the total vehicle volume. For ROS, the stronger association observed with HDV and gasoline vehicles when combined (total traffic count) compared to when considered individually may signal a role for the interaction of their emissions as a determinant of on-road ROS in this pilot study. If further validated, this should not be overlooked in studies of on- or near-road particle exposure and its potential health effects.

Granule mining and its application for network traffic characterization

Decision table and decision rules play an important role in rough set based data analysis, which compress databases into granules and describe the associations between granules. Granule mining was also proposed to interpret decision rules in terms of association rules and multi-tier structure. In this paper, we further extend granule mining to describe the relationships between granules not only by traditional support and confidence, but by diversity and condition diversity as well. Diversity measures how diverse of a granule associated with the other ganules, it provides a kind of novel knowledge in databases. Some experiments are conducted to test the proposed new concepts for describing the characteristics of a real network traffic data collection. The results show that the proposed concepts are promising.

A safety adapted car following model for traffic safety studies

Traffic safety studies demand more than what current micro-simulation models can provide as they presume that all drivers exhibit safe behaviors. All the microscopic traffic simulation models include a car following model. This paper highlights the limitations of the Gipps car following model ability to emulate driver behavior for safety study purposes. A safety adapted car following model based on the Gipps car following model is proposed to simulate unsafe vehicle movements, with safety indicators below critical thresholds. The modifications are based on the observations of driver behavior in real data and also psychophysical notions. NGSIM vehicle trajectory data is used to evaluate the new model and short following headways and Time To Collision are employed to assess critical safety events within traffic flow. Risky events are extracted from available NGSIM data to evaluate the modified model against them. The results from simulation tests illustrate that the proposed model can predict the safety metrics better than the generic Gipps model. The outcome of this paper can potentially facilitate assessing and predicting traffic safety using microscopic simulation.

Exploring perceived legitimacy of traffic law enforcement

The purpose of traffic law enforcement is to encourage compliant driver behaviour. That is, the threat of an undesirable sanction encourages drivers to comply with traffic laws. However, not all traffic law violations are considered equal. For example, while drink driving is generally seen as socially unacceptable, behaviours such as speeding are arguably less so, and speed enforcement is often portrayed in the popular media as a means of “revenue raising”. The perceived legitimacy of traffic law enforcement has received limited research attention to date. Perceived legitimacy of traffic law enforcement may influence (or be influenced by) attitudes toward illegal driving behaviours, and both of these factors are likely to influence on-road driving behaviour. This study aimed to explore attitudes toward a number of illegal driving behaviours and traffic law enforcement approaches that typically target these behaviours using self-reported data from a large sample of drivers. The results of this research can be used to inform further research in this area, as well as the content of public education and advertising campaigns designed to influence attitudes toward illegal driving behaviours and perceived legitimacy of traffic law enforcement.

Novel methods and the maximum likelihood estimation technique for estimating traffic critical gap

Most unsignalised intersection capacity calculation procedures are based on gap acceptance models. Accuracy of critical gap estimation affects accuracy of capacity and delay estimation. Several methods have been published to estimate drivers’ sample mean critical gap, the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) technique regarded as the most accurate. This study assesses three novel methods; Average Central Gap (ACG) method, Strength Weighted Central Gap method (SWCG), and Mode Central Gap method (MCG), against MLE for their fidelity in rendering true sample mean critical gaps. A Monte Carlo event based simulation model was used to draw the maximum rejected gap and accepted gap for each of a sample of 300 drivers across 32 simulation runs. Simulation mean critical gap is varied between 3s and 8s, while offered gap rate is varied between 0.05veh/s and 0.55veh/s. This study affirms that MLE provides a close to perfect fit to simulation mean critical gaps across a broad range of conditions. The MCG method also provides an almost perfect fit and has superior computational simplicity and efficiency to the MLE. The SWCG method performs robustly under high flows; however, poorly under low to moderate flows. Further research is recommended using field traffic data, under a variety of minor stream and major stream flow conditions for a variety of minor stream movement types, to compare critical gap estimates using MLE against MCG. Should the MCG method prove as robust as MLE, serious consideration should be given to its adoption to estimate critical gap parameters in guidelines.

Navigational Safety in Port Waters : Proactive Management of Collision Risk Using Traffic Conflicts

Traditionally navigational safety analyses rely on historical collision data which is often hampered because of low collision counts, insufficiency in explaining collision causation, and reactive approach to safety. A promising alternative approach that overcomes these problems is using navigational traffic conflicts or near-misses as an alternative to the collision data. This book discusses how traffic conflicts can effectively be used in modeling of port water collision risks. Techniques for measuring and predicting collision risks in fairways, intersections, and anchorages are discussed by utilizing advanced statistical models. Risk measurement models, which quantitatively measure collision risks in waterways, are discussed. To predict risks, a hierarchical statistical modeling technique is discussed which identifies the factors influencing the risks. The modeling techniques are illustrated for Singapore port data. Results showed that traffic conflicts are an ethically appealing alternative to collision data for fast, reliable and effective safety assessment, thus possessing great potential for managing collision risks in port waters.

Performance analysis of PTP components for IEC 61850 process bus applications

New substation automation applications, such as sampled value process buses and synchrophasors, require sampling accuracy of 1 µs or better. The Precision Time Protocol (PTP), IEEE Std 1588, achieves this level of performance and integrates well into Ethernet based substation networks. This paper takes a systematic approach to the performance evaluation of commercially available PTP devices (grandmaster, slave, transparent and boundary clocks) from a variety of manufacturers. The ``error budget'' is set by the performance requirements of each application. The ``expenditure'' of this error budget by each component is valuable information for a system designer. The component information is used to design a synchronization system that meets the overall functional requirements. The quantitative performance data presented shows that this testing is effective and informative. Results from testing PTP performance in the presence of sampled value process bus traffic demonstrate the benefit of a ``bottom up'' component testing approach combined with ``top down'' system verification tests. A test method that uses a precision Ethernet capture card, rather than dedicated PTP test sets, to determine the Correction Field Error of transparent clocks is presented. This test is particularly relevant for highly loaded Ethernet networks with stringent timing requirements. The methods presented can be used for development purposes by manufacturers, or by system integrators for acceptance testing. A sampled value process bus was used as the test application for the systematic approach described in this paper. The test approach was applied, components were selected, and the system performance verified to meet the application's requirements. Systematic testing, as presented in this paper, is applicable to a range of industries that use, rather than develop, PTP for time transfer.

A new approach for trip generation estimation for use in traffic impact assessments

Findings from an online survey conducted by Queensland University of Technology (QUT) shows that Australia is suffering from a lack of data reflecting trip generation for use in Traffic Impact Assessments (TIAs). Current independent variables for trip generation estimation are not able to create robust outcomes as well. It is also challenging to account for the impact of the new development on public and active transport as well as the effect of trip chaining behaviour in Australian TIA studies. With this background in mind, research is being implemented by QUT to find a new approach developing a combined model of trip generation and mode choice with consideration of trip chaining effects. It is expected that the model will provide transferable outcomes as it is developed based on socio-demographic parameters. Child Care Centres within the Brisbane area have been nominated for model development. At the time, the project is in the data collection phase. Findings from the pilot survey associated with capturing trip chaining and mode choice information reveal that applying questionnaire is able to capture required information in an acceptable level. The result also reveals that several centres within an area should be surveyed in order to provide sufficient data for trip chaining and modal split analysis.

Integrating driving and traffic simulators to study railway level crossing safety interventions : a methodology

Safety at Railway Level Crossings (RLXs) is an important issue within the Australian transport system. Crashes at RLXs involving road vehicles in Australia are estimated to cost $10 million each year. Such crashes are mainly due to human factors; unintentional errors contribute to 46% of all fatal collisions and are far more common than deliberate violations. This suggests that innovative intervention targeting drivers are particularly promising to improve RLX safety. In recent years there has been a rapid development of a variety of affordable technologies which can be used to increase driver’s risk awareness around crossings. To date, no research has evaluated the potential effects of such technologies at RLXs in terms of safety, traffic and acceptance of the technology. Integrating driving and traffic simulations is a safe and affordable approach for evaluating these effects. This methodology will be implemented in a driving simulator, where we recreated realistic driving scenario with typical road environments and realistic traffic. This paper presents a methodology for evaluating comprehensively potential benefits and negative effects of such interventions: this methodology evaluates driver awareness at RLXs , driver distraction and workload when using the technology . Subjective assessment on perceived usefulness and ease of use of the technology is obtained from standard questionnaires. Driving simulation will provide a model of driving behaviour at RLXs which will be used to estimate the effects of such new technology on a road network featuring RLX for different market penetrations using a traffic simulation. This methodology can assist in evaluating future safety interventions at RLXs.

Traffic-related fine and ultrafine particle exposures of professional drivers and illness : An opportunity to better link exposure science and epidemiology to address an occupational hazard?

Exposures to traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) can be particularly high in transport microenvironments (i.e. in and around vehicles) despite the short durations typically spent there. There is a mounting body of evidence that suggests that this is especially true for fine (b2.5 μm) and ultrafine (b100 nm, UF) particles. Professional drivers, who spend extended periods of time in transport microenvironments due to their job, may incur exposures markedly higher than already elevated non-occupational exposures. Numerous epidemiological studies have shown a raised incidence of adverse health outcomes among professional drivers, and exposure to TRAP has been suggested as one of the possible causal factors. Despite this, data describing the range and determinants of occupational exposures to fine and UF particles are largely conspicuous in their absence. Such information could strengthen attempts to define the aetiology of professional drivers' illnesses as it relates to traffic combustion-derived particles. In this article, we suggest that the drivers' occupational fine and UF particle exposures are an exemplar case where opportunities exist to better link exposure science and epidemiology in addressing questions of causality. The nature of the hazard is first introduced, followed by an overview of the health effects attributable to exposures typical of transport microenvironments. Basic determinants of exposure and reduction strategies are also described, and finally the state of knowledge is briefly summarised along with an outline of the main unanswered questions in the topic area.

Evaluation of the GHR car following model for traffic safety studies

Traffic safety studies mandate more than what existing micro-simulation models can offer as they postulate that every driver exhibits a safe behaviour. All the microscopic traffic simulation models are consisting of a car-following model and the Gazis–Herman–Rothery (GHR) car-following model is a widely used model. This paper highlights the limitations of the GHR car-following model capability to model longitudinal driving behaviour for safety study purposes. This study reviews and compares different version of the GHR model. To empower the GHR model on precise metrics reproduction a new set of car-following model parameters is offered to simulate unsafe vehicle conflicts. NGSIM vehicle trajectory data is used to evaluate the new model and short following headways and Time to Collision are employed to assess critical safety events within traffic flow. Risky events are extracted from available NGSIM data to evaluate the modified model against the generic versions of the GHR model. The results from simulation tests illustrate that the proposed model does predict the safety metrics better than the generic GHR model. Additionally it can potentially facilitate assessing and predicting traffic facilities’ safety using microscopic simulation. The new model can predict Near-miss rear-end crashes.

Microscopic traffic hysteresis in traffic oscillations : a behavioral perspective

This paper studies traffic hysteresis arising in traffic oscillations from a behavioral perspective. It is found that the occurrence and type of traffic hysteresis is closely correlated with driver behavior when experiencing traffic oscillations and with the time driver reaction begins relative to the starting deceleration wave. Statistical results suggest that driver behavior is different depending on its position along the oscillation. This suggests that different car-following models should be used inside the different stages of an oscillation in order to replicate realistic congestion features.