The economics of happiness : a lifetime perspective

The three studies in this thesis focus on happiness and age and seek to contribute to our understanding of happiness change over the lifetime. The first study contributes by offering an explanation for what was evolving to a ‘stylised fact’ in the economics literature, the U-shape of happiness in age. No U-shape is evident if one makes a visual inspection of the age happiness relationship in the German socio-economic panel data, and, it seems counter-intuitive that we just have to wait until we get old to be happy. Eliminating the very young, the very old, and the first timers from the analysis did not explain away regression results supporting the U-shape of happiness in age, but fixed effect analysis did. Analysis revealed found that reverse causality arising from time-invariant individual traits explained the U-shape of happiness in age in the German population, and the results were robust across six econometric methods. Robustness was added to the German fixed effect finding by replicating it with the Australian and the British socio-economic panel data sets. During analysis of the German data an unexpected finding emerged, an exceedingly large negative linear effect of age on happiness in fixed-effect regressions. There is a large self-reported happiness decline by those who remain in the German panel. A similar decline over time was not evident in the Australian or the British data. After testing away age, time and cohort effects, a time-in-panel effect was found. Germans who remain in the panel for longer progressively report lower levels of happiness. Because time-in-panel effects have not been included in happiness regression specifications, our estimates may be biased; perhaps some economics of the happiness studies, that used German panel data, need revisiting. The second study builds upon the fixed-effect finding of the first study and extends our view of lifetime happiness to a cohort little visited by economists, children. Initial analysis extends our view of lifetime happiness beyond adulthood and revealed a happiness decline in adolescent (15 to 23 year-old) Australians that is twice the size of the happiness decline we see in older Australians (75 to 86 yearolds), who we expect to be unhappy due to declining income, failing health and the onset of death. To resolve a difference of opinion in the literature as to whether childhood happiness decreases, increases, or remains flat in age; survey instruments and an Internet-based survey were developed and used to collect data from four hundred 9 to 14 year-old Australian children. Applying the data to a Model of Childhood Happiness revealed that the natural environment life-satisfaction domain factor did not have a significant effect on childhood happiness. However, the children’s school environment and interactions with friends life-satisfaction domain factors explained over half a steep decline in childhood happiness that is three times larger than what we see in older Australians. Adding personality to the model revealed what we expect to see with adults, extraverted children are happier, but unexpectedly, so are conscientious children. With the steep decline in the happiness of young Australians revealed and explanations offered, the third study builds on the time-invariant individual trait finding from the first study by applying the Australian panel data to an Aggregate Model of Average Happiness over the lifetime. The model’s independent variable is the stress that arises from the interaction between personality and the life event shocks that affect individuals and peers throughout their lives. Interestingly, a graphic depiction of the stress in age relationship reveals an inverse U-shape; an inverse U-shape that looks like the opposite of the U-shape of happiness in age we saw in the first study. The stress arising from life event shocks is found to explain much of the change in average happiness over a lifetime. With the policy recommendations of economists potentially invoking unexpected changes in our lives, the ensuing stress and resulting (un)happiness warrant consideration before economists make policy recommendations.

Auric Variations

A female voice softly recites physical and psychological associations of aura colours. On screen, individual words fade in and out rhythmically amid a field of swirling and morphing colours. The animated words correlate with the words being spoken, but not every word is displayed, therefore enabling an alternative range of verbal associations to emerge. “Auric Variations” plays with the mix of affirmation and anxiety that can underscore contemporary subjective experiences and the new age techniques we sometimes used to understand them.

Challenges of Measuring Learning Outcomes for Property Students Engaged in Work Integrated Learning

Work integrated learning (WIL) or professional practice units are recognised as providing learning experiences that help students make successful transitions to professional practice. These units require students to engage in learning in the workplace; to reflect on this learning; and to integrate it with learning at university. However, an analysis of a recent cohort of property economics students at a large urban university provides evidence that there is great variation in work based learning experiences undertaken and that this impacts on students’capacity to respond to assessment tasks which involve critiquing these experiences in the form of reflective reports. This paper highlights the need to recognise the diversity of work based experiences; the impact this has on learning outcomes; and to find more effective and equitable ways of measuring these outcomes. The paper briefly discusses assessing learning outcomes in WIL and then describes the model of WIL in the Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT). The paper elaborates on the diversity of students’ experiences and backgrounds including variations in the length of work experience, placement opportunities and conditions of employment.For example, the analysis shows that students with limited work experience often have difficulty critiquing this work experience and producing high level reflective reports. On the other hand students with extensive, discipline relevant work experience can be frustrated by assessment requirements that do not take their experience into account. Added to this the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has restricted both part time and full time placement opportunities for some students. These factors affect students’ capacity to a) secure a relevant work experience, b) reflect critically on the work experiences and c) appreciate the impact the overall experience can have on their learning outcomes and future professional opportunities. Our investigation highlights some of the challenges faced in implementing effective and equitable approaches across diverse student cohorts. We suggest that increased flexibility in assessment requirements and increased feedback from industry may help address these challenges.

Microcosm study of ion mobilization and greenhouse gas evolution in soils of a plantation-forested subtropical coastal catchment

This study examined the potential for Fe mobilization and greenhouse gas (GHG, e.g. CO2, and CH4) evolution in SEQ soils associated with a range of plantation forestry practices and water-logged conditions. Intact, 30-cm-deep soil cores collected from representative sites were saturated and incubated for 35 days in the laboratory, with leachate and headspace gas samples periodically collected. Minimal Fe dissolution was observed in well-drained sand soils associated with mature, first-rotation Pinus and organic Fe complexation, whereas progressive Fe dissolution occurred over 14 days in clear-felled and replanted Pinus soils with low organic matter and non-crystalline Fe fractions. Both CO2 and CH4 effluxes were relatively lower in clear-felled and replanted soils compared with mature, first-rotation Pinus soils, despite the lack of statistically significant variations in total GHG effluxes associated with different forestry practices. Fe dissolution and GHG evolution in low-lying, water-logged soils adjacent to riparian and estuarine, native-vegetation buffer zones were impacted by mineral and physical soil properties. Highest levels of dissolved Fe and GHG effluxes resulted from saturation of riparian loam soils with high Fe and clay content, as well as abundant organic material and Fe-metabolizing bacteria. Results indicate Pinus forestry practices such as clear-felling and replanting may elevate Fe mobilization while decreasing CO2 and CH4 emissions from well-drained, SEQ plantation soils upon heavy flooding. Prolonged water-logging accelerates bacterially mediated Fe cycling in low-lying, clay-rich soils, leading to substantial Fe dissolution, organic matter mineralization, and CH4 production in riparian native-vegetation buffer zones.

Environmental factors controlling temporal and spatial variability in the soil-atmosphere exchange of CO2, CH4 and N2O from an Australian subtropical rainforest

The temporal variations in CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes were measured over two consecutive years from February 2007 to March 2009 from a subtropical rainforest in south-eastern Queensland, Australia, using an automated sampling system. A concurrent study using an additional 30 manual chambers examined the spatial variability of emissions distributed across three nearby remnant rainforest sites with similar vegetation and climatic conditions. Interannual variation in fluxes of all gases over the 2 years was minimal, despite large discrepancies in rainfall, whereas a pronounced seasonal variation could only be observed for CO2 fluxes. High infiltration, drainage and subsequent high soil aeration under the rainforest limited N2O loss while promoting substantial CH4 uptake. The average annual N2O loss of 0.5 ± 0.1 kg N2O-N ha−1 over the 2-year measurement period was at the lower end of reported fluxes from rainforest soils. The rainforest soil functioned as a sink for atmospheric CH4 throughout the entire 2-year period, despite periods of substantial rainfall. A clear linear correlation between soil moisture and CH4 uptake was found. Rates of uptake ranged from greater than 15 g CH4-C ha−1 day−1 during extended dry periods to less than 2–5 g CH4-C ha−1 day−1 when soil water content was high. The calculated annual CH4 uptake at the site was 3.65 kg CH4-C ha−1 yr−1. This is amongst the highest reported for rainforest systems, reiterating the ability of aerated subtropical rainforests to act as substantial sinks of CH4. The spatial study showed N2O fluxes almost eight times higher, and CH4 uptake reduced by over one-third, as clay content of the rainforest soil increased from 12% to more than 23%. This demonstrates that for some rainforest ecosystems, soil texture and related water infiltration and drainage capacity constraints may play a more important role in controlling fluxes than either vegetation or seasonal variability

Methodological challenges when estimating the effects of season and seasonal exposures on birth outcomes

Background Many previous studies have found seasonal patterns in birth outcomes, but with little agreement about which season poses the highest risk. Some of the heterogeneity between studies may be explained by a previously unknown bias. The bias occurs in retrospective cohorts which include all births occurring within a fixed start and end date, which means shorter pregnancies are missed at the start of the study, and longer pregnancies are missed at the end. Our objective was to show the potential size of this bias and how to avoid it. Methods To demonstrate the bias we simulated a retrospective birth cohort with no seasonal pattern in gestation and used a range of cohort end dates. As a real example, we used a cohort of 114,063 singleton births in Brisbane between 1 July 2005 and 30 June 2009 and examined the bias when estimating changes in gestation length associated with season (using month of conception) and a seasonal exposure (temperature). We used survival analyses with temperature as a time-dependent variable. Results We found strong artificial seasonal patterns in gestation length by month of conception, which depended on the end date of the study. The bias was avoided when the day and month of the start date was just before the day and month of the end date (regardless of year), so that the longer gestations at the start of the study were balanced by the shorter gestations at the end. After removing the fixed cohort bias there was a noticeable change in the effect of temperature on gestation length. The adjusted hazard ratios were flatter at the extremes of temperature but steeper between 15 and 25°C. Conclusions Studies using retrospective birth cohorts should account for the fixed cohort bias by removing selected births to get unbiased estimates of seasonal health effects.

Variations on a routine : how selection-adaptation-retention dynamics create variety in organisational routines

The question "what causes variety in organisational routines" is of considerable interest to organisational scholars, and one to which this thesis seeks to answer. To this end an evolutionary theory of change is advanced which holds that the dynamics of selection, adaptation and retention explain the creation of variety in organisational routines. A longitudinal, multi-level, multi-case analysis is undertaken in this thesis, using multiple data collection strategies. In each case, different types of variety were identified, according to a typology, together with how selection, adaptation and retention contribute to variety in a positive or negative sense. Methodologically, the thesis makes a contribution to our understanding of variety, as certain types of variety only become evident when examined by specific types of research design. The research also makes a theoretical contribution by explaining how selection, adaptation and retention individually and collectively contribute to variety in organisational routines. Moreover, showing that routines could be stable, diverse, adaptive and dynamic at the same time; is a significant, and novel, theoretical contribution.

Analysing seasonal data

Many common diseases, such as the flu and cardiovascular disease, increase markedly in winter and dip in summer. These seasonal patterns have been part of life for millennia and were first noted in ancient Greece by both Hippocrates and Herodotus. Recent interest has focused on climate change, and the concern that seasons will become more extreme with harsher winter and summer weather. We describe a set of R functions designed to model seasonal patterns in disease. We illustrate some simple descriptive and graphical methods, a more complex method that is able to model non-stationary patterns, and the case–crossover for controlling for seasonal confounding.

Urban, suburban, and rural variations in separation/divorce rape/sexual assault : results from the National Crime Victimization Survey

To date, no large study has looked at whether separation/divorce sexual assault varies across urban, suburban, and rural areas. The authors use 1992-2009 NCVS (National Crime Victimization Survey) data to estimate the percentage of separation/divorce sexual assault against women in urban, suburban, and rural communities. In addition, the authors identify and compare the relative risk of sexual assault victimization for women across areas. Findings indicate that a higher percentage of rural divorced/separated women were victims of rape/sexual assault than were urban divorced/separated women. In addition, rural separated women are victims of intimate rape/sexual assault at significantly higher rates than their suburban and urban counterparts.

Miscarriage, preterm delivery, and stillbirth: Large variations in rates within a cohort of Australian women

Objectives We aimed to use simple clinical questions to group women and provide their specific rates of miscarriage, preterm delivery, and stillbirth for reference. Further, our purpose was to describe who has experienced particularly low or high rates of each event. Methods Data were collected as part of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health, a national prospective cohort. Reproductive histories were obtained from 5806 women aged 31–36 years in 2009, who had self-reported an outcome for one or more pregnancy. Age at first birth, number of live births, smoking status, fertility problems, use of in vitro fertilisation (IVF), education and physical activity were the variables that best separated women into groups for calculating the rates of miscarriage, preterm delivery, and stillbirth. Results Women reported 10,247 live births, 2544 miscarriages, 1113 preterm deliveries, and 113 stillbirths. Miscarriage was correlated with stillbirth (r = 0.09, P<0.001). The calculable rate of miscarriage ranged from 11.3 to 86.5 miscarriages per 100 live births. Women who had high rates of miscarriage typically had fewer live births, were more likely to smoke and were more likely to have tried unsuccessfully to conceive for ≥12 months. The highest proportion of live preterm delivery (32.2%) occurred in women who had one live birth, had tried unsuccessfully to conceive for ≥12 months, had used IVF, and had 12 years education or equivalent. Women aged 14–19.99 years at their first birth and reported low physical activity had 38.9 stillbirths per 1000 live births, compared to the lowest rate at 5.5 per 1000 live births. Conclusion Different groups of women experience vastly different rates of each adverse pregnancy event. We have used simple questions and established reference data that will stratify women into low- and high-rate groups, which may be useful in counselling those who have experienced miscarriage, preterm delivery, or stillbirth, plus women with fertility intent.

Tax evasion, inequality, and progressive taxes : a political economy perspective

The standard approach to tax compliance applies the economics-of-crime methodology pioneered by Becker (1968): in its first application, due to Allingham and Sandmo (1972) it models the behaviour of agents as a decision involving a choice of the extent of their income to report to tax authorities, given a certain institutional environment, represented by parameters such as the probability of detection and penalties in the event the agent is caught. While this basic framework yields important insights on tax compliance behavior, it has some critical limitations. Specifically, it indicates a level of compliance that is significantly below what is observed in the data. This thesis revisits the original framework with a view towards addressing this issue, and examining the political economy implications of tax evasion for progressivity in the tax structure. The approach followed involves building a macroeconomic, dynamic equilibrium model for the purpose of examining these issues, by using a step-wise model building procedure starting with some very simple variations of the basic Allingham and Sandmo construct, which are eventually integrated to a dynamic general equilibrium overlapping generations framework with heterogeneous agents. One of the variations involves incorporating the Allingham and Sandmo construct into a two-period model of a small open economy of the type originally attributed to Fisher (1930). A further variation of this simple construct involves allowing agents to initially decide whether to evade taxes or not. In the event they decide to evade, the agents then have to decide the extent of income or wealth they wish to under-report. We find that the ‘evade or not’ assumption has strikingly different and more realistic implications for the extent of evasion, and demonstrate that it is a more appropriate modeling strategy in the context of macroeconomic models, which are essentially dynamic in nature, and involve consumption smoothing across time and across various states of nature. Specifically, since deciding to undertake tax evasion impacts on the consumption smoothing ability of the agent by creating two states of nature in which the agent is ‘caught’ or ‘not caught’, there is a possibility that their utility under certainty, when they choose not to evade, is higher than the expected utility obtained when they choose to evade. Furthermore, the simple two-period model incorporating an ‘evade or not’ choice can be used to demonstrate some strikingly different political economy implications relative to its Allingham and Sandmo counterpart. In variations of the two models that allow for voting on the tax parameter, we find that agents typically choose to vote for a high degree of progressivity by choosing the highest available tax rate from the menu of choices available to them. There is, however, a small range of inequality levels for which agents in the ‘evade or not’ model vote for a relatively low value of the tax rate. The final steps in the model building procedure involve grafting the two-period models with a political economy choice into a dynamic overlapping generations setting with more general, non-linear tax schedules and a ‘cost-of evasion’ function that is increasing in the extent of evasion. Results based on numerical simulations of these models show further improvement in the model’s ability to match empirically plausible levels of tax evasion. In addition, the differences between the political economy implications of the ‘evade or not’ version of the model and its Allingham and Sandmo counterpart are now very striking; there is now a large range of values of the inequality parameter for which agents in the ‘evade or not’ model vote for a low degree of progressivity. This is because, in the ‘evade or not’ version of the model, low values of the tax rate encourages a large number of agents to choose the ‘not-evade’ option, so that the redistributive mechanism is more ‘efficient’ relative to the situations in which tax rates are high. Some further implications of the models of this thesis relate to whether variations in the level of inequality, and parameters such as the probability of detection and penalties for tax evasion matter for the political economy results. We find that (i) the political economy outcomes for the tax rate are quite insensitive to changes in inequality, and (ii) the voting outcomes change in non-monotonic ways in response to changes in the probability of detection and penalty rates. Specifically, the model suggests that changes in inequality should not matter, although the political outcome for the tax rate for a given level of inequality is conditional on whether there is a large or small or large extent of evasion in the economy. We conclude that further theoretical research into macroeconomic models of tax evasion is required to identify the structural relationships underpinning the link between inequality and redistribution in the presence of tax evasion. The models of this thesis provide a necessary first step in that direction.