AITPM Email Newsletter Volume 0904, April 2009: Presidents Message

President’s Report Hello fellow AITPM members, A few weeks ago we saw another example of all levels of Government pulling together in real time to try to deal with a major transport incident, this time it was container loads of ammonium nitrate falling off the Pacific Adventurer during Cyclone Hamish and the associated major oil spill due to piercing of its hull off Moreton Bay in southern Queensland. The oil spill was extensive, affecting beaches and estuaries from Moreton Island north to the Sunshine Coast; a coastal stretch of at least 60km. We saw the Queensland Government, Brisbane, Moreton Bay and Sunshine Coast Regional Council crews deployed quickly once the gravity of the situation was realised to clean up toxic oil on beaches and prevent extensive upstream contamination. Environmental agencies public and private were quick to respond to help affected wildlife. The Navy’s HMAS Yarra and another minesweeper were deployed to search for the containers in the coastal area in an effort to have them salvaged before all ammonium nitrate could leach into and harm marine habitat, which would have a substantial impact not only on that environment but also the fishing industry. all of this during the final fortnight before a State election.) While this could be branded as a maritime problem, the road transport and logistics system was crucial to the cleanup. The private vehicular ferries were enlisted to transport plant and equipment from Brisbane to Moreton Island. The plant themselves, such as graders, were drawn from road building and maintenance inventory. Hundreds of Councils’ staff were released from other activities to undertake the cleanup. While it will take some time for us to know the long term impacts of this incident, it seems difficult to fault “grassroots” government crews and their private counterparts, such as Island tourism staff, in the initial cleanup effort. From a traffic planning and management perspective, we should also remember that this sort of incident has happened on road and rail corridors in the past, albeit on lesser scales. It underlines that we do need to continue to protect communities, commercial interests, and the environment through rigorous heavy vehicle management, planning and management of dangerous goods routesincluding rail corridors through urban areas), and carefully considered incident and disaster recovery plans and protocols. I’d like to close in reminding everyone again that AITPM’s flagship event, the 2009 AITPM National Conference, Traffic Beyond Tomorrow, is being held in Adelaide from 5 to 7 August. SA Branch President Paul Morris informs me that we have had over 50 paper submissions to date, from which a very balanced and informative programme of sessions has been prepared. www.aitpm.com has all of the details about how to register, sponsor a booth, session, etc. Best regards all, Jon Bunker

Preliminary spatiotemporal analysis of the association between socio-environmental factors and suicide

Background: The seasonality of suicide has long been recognised. However, little is known about the relative importance of socio-environmental factors in the occurrence of suicide in different geographical areas. This study examined the association of climate, socioeconomic and demographic factors with suicide in Queensland, Australia, using a spatiotemporal approach. Methods: Seasonal data on suicide, demographic variables and socioeconomic indexes for areas in each Local Government Area (LGA) between 1999 and 2003 were acquired from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Climate data were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. A multivariable generalized estimating equation model was used to examine the impact of socio-environmental factors on suicide. Results: The preliminary data analyses show that far north Queensland had the highest suicide incidence (e.g., Cook and Mornington Shires), while the south-western areas had the lowest incidence (e.g., Barcoo and Bauhinia Shires) in all the seasons. Maximum temperature, unemployment rate, the proportion of Indigenous population and the proportion of population with low individual income were statistically significantly and positively associated with suicide. There were weaker but not significant associations for other variables. Conclusions: Maximum temperature, the proportion of Indigenous population and unemployment rate appeared to be major determinants of suicide at a LGA level in Queensland.

Radiological aspects of petroleum exploration and production in the sultanate of Oman

This thesis is a study of naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) activity concentration, gamma dose rate and radon (222Rn) exhalation from the waste streams of large-scale onshore petroleum operations. Types of activities covered included; sludge recovery from separation tanks, sludge farming, NORM storage, scaling in oil tubulars, scaling in gas production and sedimentation in produced water evaporation ponds. Field work was conducted in the arid desert terrain of an operational oil exploration and production region in the Sultanate of Oman. The main radionuclides found were 226Ra and 210Pb (238U - series), 228Ra and 228Th (232Th - series), and 227Ac (235U - series), along with 40K. All activity concentrations were higher than the ambient soil level and varied over several orders of magnitude. The range of gamma dose rates at a 1 m height above ground for the farm treated sludge had a range of 0.06 0.43 µSv h 1, and an average close to the ambient soil mean of 0.086 ± 0.014 µSv h 1, whereas the untreated sludge gamma dose rates had a range of 0.07 1.78 µSv h 1, and a mean of 0.456 ± 0.303 µSv h 1. The geometric mean of ambient soil 222Rn exhalation rate for area surrounding the sludge was mBq m 2 s 1. Radon exhalation rates reported in oil waste products were all higher than the ambient soil value and varied over three orders of magnitude. This study resulted in some unique findings including: (i) detection of radiotoxic 227Ac in the oil scales and sludge, (ii) need of a new empirical relation between petroleum sludge activity concentrations and gamma dose rates, and (iii) assessment of exhalation of 222Rn from oil sludge. Additionally the study investigated a method to determine oil scale and sludge age by the use of inherent behaviour of radionuclides as 228Ra:226Ra and 228Th:228Ra activity ratios.

How environmental and organizational complexity affects opportunity recognition and exploitation in development projects

Principal Topic: Project structures are often created by entrepreneurs and large corporate organizations to develop new products. Since new product development projects (NPDP) are more often situated within a larger organization, intrapreneurship or corporate entrepreneurship plays an important role in bringing these projects to fruition. Since NPDP often involves the development of a new product using immature technology, we describe development of an immature technology. The Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) F-35 aircraft is being developed by the U.S. Department of Defense and eight allied nations. In 2001 Lockheed Martin won a $19 billion contract to develop an affordable, stealthy and supersonic all-weather strike fighter designed to replace a wide range of aging fighter aircraft. In this research we define a complex project as one that demonstrates a number of sources of uncertainty to a degree, or level of severity, that makes it extremely difficult to predict project outcomes, to control or manage project (Remington & Zolin, Forthcoming). Project complexity has been conceptualized by Remington and Pollock (2007) in terms of four major sources of complexity; temporal, directional, structural and technological complexity (See Figure 1). Temporal complexity exists when projects experience significant environmental change outside the direct influence or control of the project. The Global Economic Crisis of 2008 - 2009 is a good example of the type of environmental change that can make a project complex as, for example in the JSF project, where project managers attempt to respond to changes in interest rates, international currency exchange rates and commodity prices etc. Directional complexity exists in a project where stakeholders' goals are unclear or undefined, where progress is hindered by unknown political agendas, or where stakeholders disagree or misunderstand project goals. In the JSF project all the services and all non countries have to agree to the specifications of the three variants of the aircraft; Conventional Take Off and Landing (CTOL), Short Take Off/Vertical Landing (STOVL) and the Carrier Variant (CV). Because the Navy requires a plane that can take off and land on an aircraft carrier, that required a special variant of the aircraft design, adding complexity to the project. Technical complexity occurs in a project using technology that is immature or where design characteristics are unknown or untried. Developing a plane that can take off on a very short runway and land vertically created may highly interdependent technological challenges to correctly locate, direct and balance the lift fans, modulate the airflow and provide equivalent amount of thrust from the downward vectored rear exhaust to lift the aircraft and at the same time control engine temperatures. These technological challenges make costing and scheduling equally challenging. Structural complexity in a project comes from the sheer numbers of elements such as the number of people, teams or organizations involved, ambiguity regarding the elements, and the massive degree of interconnectedness between them. While Lockheed Martin is the prime contractor, they are assisted in major aspects of the JSF development by Northrop Grumman, BAE Systems, Pratt & Whitney and GE/Rolls-Royce Fighter Engineer Team and innumerable subcontractors. In addition to identifying opportunities to achieve project goals, complex projects also need to identify and exploit opportunities to increase agility in response to changing stakeholder demands or to reduce project risks. Complexity Leadership Theory contends that in complex environments adaptive and enabling leadership are needed (Uhl-Bien, Marion and McKelvey, 2007). Adaptive leadership facilitates creativity, learning and adaptability, while enabling leadership handles the conflicts that inevitably arise between adaptive leadership and traditional administrative leadership (Uhl-Bien and Marion, 2007). Hence, adaptive leadership involves the recognition and opportunities to adapt, while and enabling leadership involves the exploitation of these opportunities. Our research questions revolve around the type or source of complexity and its relationship to opportunity recognition and exploitation. For example, is it only external environmental complexity that creates the need for the entrepreneurial behaviours, such as opportunity recognition and opportunity exploitation? Do the internal dimensions of project complexity, such as technological and structural complexity, also create the need for opportunity recognition and opportunity exploitation? The Kropp, Zolin and Lindsay model (2009) describes a relationship between entrepreneurial orientation (EO), opportunity recognition (OR), and opportunity exploitation (OX) in complex projects, with environmental and organizational contextual variables as moderators. We extend their model by defining the affects of external complexity and internal complexity on OR and OX. ---------- Methodology/Key Propositions: When the environment complex EO is more likely to result in OR because project members will be actively looking for solutions to problems created by environmental change. But in projects that are technologically or structurally complex project leaders and members may try to make the minimum changes possible to reduce the risk of creating new problems due to delays or schedule changes. In projects with environmental or technological complexity project leaders who encourage the innovativeness dimension of EO will increase OR in complex projects. But projects with technical or structural complexity innovativeness will not necessarily result in the recognition and exploitation of opportunities due to the over-riding importance of maintaining stability in the highly intricate and interconnected project structure. We propose that in projects with environmental complexity creating the need for change and innovation project leaders, who are willing to accept and manage risk, are more likely to identify opportunities to increase project effectiveness and efficiency. In contrast in projects with internal complexity a much higher willingness to accept risk will be necessary to trigger opportunity recognition. In structurally complex projects we predict it will be less likely to find a relationship between risk taking and OP. When the environment is complex, and a project has autonomy, they will be motivated to execute opportunities to improve the project's performance. In contrast, when the project has high internal complexity, they will be more cautious in execution. When a project experiences high competitive aggressiveness and their environment is complex, project leaders will be motivated to execute opportunities to improve the project's performance. In contrast, when the project has high internal complexity, they will be more cautious in execution. This paper reports the first stage of a three year study into the behaviours of managers, leaders and team members of complex projects. We conduct a qualitative study involving a Group Discussion with experienced project leaders. The objective is to determine how leaders of large and potentially complex projects perceive that external and internal complexity will influence the affects of EO on OR. ---------- Results and Implications: These results will help identify and distinguish the impact of external and internal complexity on entrepreneurial behaviours in NPDP. Project managers will be better able to quickly decide how and when to respond to changes in the environment and internal project events.

The role of the health surveillance program in the Queensland coal mining industry

The Queensland Coal Industry Employees Health Scheme was implemented in 1993 to provide health surveillance for all Queensland coal industry workers. Tt1e government, mining employers and mining unions agreed that the scheme should operate for seven years. At the expiry of the scheme, an assessment of the contribution of health surveillance to meet coal industry needs would be an essential part of determining a future health surveillance program. This research project has analysed the data made available between 1993 and 1998. All current coal industry employees have had at least one health assessment. The project examined how the centralised nature of the Health Scheme benefits industry by identi~)jng key health issues and exploring their dimensions on a scale not possible by corporate based health surveillance programs. There is a body of evidence that indicates that health awareness - on the scale of the individual, the work group and the industry is not a part of the mining industry culture. There is also growing evidence that there is a need for this culture to change and that some change is in progress. One element of this changing culture is a growth in the interest by the individual and the community in information on health status and benchmarks that are reasonably attainable. This interest opens the way for health education which contains personal, community and occupational elements. An important element of such education is the data on mine site health status. This project examined the role of health surveillance in the coal mining industry as a tool for generating the necessary information to promote an interest in health awareness. The Health Scheme Database provides the material for the bulk of the analysis of this project. After a preliminary scan of the data set, more detailed analysis was undertaken on key health and related safety issues that include respiratory disorders, hearing loss and high blood pressure. The data set facilitates control for confounding factors such as age and smoking status. Mines can be benchmarked to identify those mines with effective health management and those with particular challenges. While the study has confirmed the very low prevalence of restrictive airway disease such as pneu"moconiosis, it has demonstrated a need to examine in detail the emergence of obstructive airway disease such as bronchitis and emphysema which may be a consequence of the increasing use of high dust longwall technology. The power of the Health Database's electronic data management is demonstrated by linking the health data to other data sets such as injury data that is collected by the Department of l\1mes and Energy. The analysis examines serious strain -sprain injuries and has identified a marked difference between the underground and open cut sectors of the industry. The analysis also considers productivity and OHS data to examine the extent to which there is correlation between any pairs ofJpese and previously analysed health parameters. This project has demonstrated that the current structure of the Coal Industry Employees Health Scheme has largely delivered to mines and effective health screening process. At the same time, the centralised nature of data collection and analysis has provided to the mines, the unions and the government substantial statistical cross-sectional data upon which strategies to more effectively manage health and relates safety issues can be based.