Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states—perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed—and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros

Selection-adaption-retention dynamics and variety in organisational routines

The notion of routines as mechanisms for achieving stability and change in organisations is well established in the organisational theory literature (Becker, 2004). However the relationship between the dynamics of selection, adaptation and retention and the increase or decrease in the varieties of routines which are the result of these processes, is not as well established theoretically or empirically. This paper investigates the processes associated with the evolution of an inter-organisational routine over time. The paper contributes to theory by advancing a conceptual clarification between the dynamics of organisational routines which produce variation, and the varieties of routines which are generated as a result of such processes; and an explanation for the relationship between selection, adaptation and retention dynamics and the creation of variety. The research is supported by analysis of empirical data pertaining to the procurement of engineering assets in a large asset intensive organisation.

Inhibitors to optimal project portfolio selection

The selection of projects and programs of work is a key function of both public and private sector organisations. Ideally, projects and programs that are selected to be undertaken are consistent with strategic objectives for the organisation; will provide value for money and return on investment; will be adequately resourced and prioritised; will not compete with general operations for resources and not restrict the ability of operations to provide income to the organisation; will match the capacity and capability of the organisation to deliver; and will produce outputs that are willingly accepted by end users and customers. Unfortunately,this is not always the case. Possible inhibitors to optimal project portfolio selection include: processes that are inconsistent with the needs of the organisation; reluctance to use an approach that may not produce predetermined preferences; loss of control and perceived decision making power; reliance on quantitative methods rather than qualitative methods for justification; ineffective project and program sponsorship; unclear project governance, processes and linkage to business strategies; ignorance, taboos and perceived effectiveness; inadequate education and training about the processes and their importance.

EduBuilding: material selection from life cycle costing sensitivity

Life Cycle Cost Analysis provides a form of synopsis of the initial and consequential costs of building related decisions. These cost figures may be implemented to justify higher investments, for example, in the quality or flexibility of building solutions through a long term cost reduction. The emerging discipline of asset mnagement is a promising approach to this problem, because it can do things that techniques such as balanced scorecards and total quantity cannot. Decisions must be made about operating and maintaining infrastructure assets. An injudicious sensitivity of life cycle costing is that the longer something lasts, the less it costs over time. A life cycle cost analysis will be used as an economic evaluation tool and collaborate with various numbers of analyses. LCCA quantifies incurring costs commonly overlooked (by property and asset managers and designs) as replacement and maintenance costs. The purpose of this research is to examine the Life Cycle Cost Analysis on building floor materials. By implementing the life cycle cost analysis, the true cost of each material will be computed projecting 60 years as the building service life and 5.4% as the inflation rate percentage to classify and appreciate the different among the materials. The analysis results showed the high impact in selecting the floor materials according to the potential of service life cycle cost next.

Doing social media : some fundamental principles

Facebook has clocked up some 400 million registered users worldwide; Twitter has just reached the 100 million mark. Within these communities, Australians appear to be particularly active: we lead the world by spending nearly eight hours per month using social media. These figures highlight the fact that for most businesses, social media are now important for engaging with customers.

Improving the performance of model-order selection criteria by partial-model selection search

The traditional searching method for model-order selection in linear regression is a nested full-parameters-set searching procedure over the desired orders, which we call full-model order selection. On the other hand, a method for model-selection searches for the best sub-model within each order. In this paper, we propose using the model-selection searching method for model-order selection, which we call partial-model order selection. We show by simulations that the proposed searching method gives better accuracies than the traditional one, especially for low signal-to-noise ratios over a wide range of model-order selection criteria (both information theoretic based and bootstrap-based). Also, we show that for some models the performance of the bootstrap-based criterion improves significantly by using the proposed partial-model selection searching method. Index Terms— Model order estimation, model selection, information theoretic criteria, bootstrap 1. INTRODUCTION Several model-order selection criteria can be applied to find the optimal order. Some of the more commonly used information theoretic-based procedures include Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) [1], corrected Akaike (AICc) [2], minimum description length (MDL) [3], normalized maximum likelihood (NML) [4], Hannan-Quinn criterion (HQC) [5], conditional model-order estimation (CME) [6], and the efficient detection criterion (EDC) [7]. From a practical point of view, it is difficult to decide which model order selection criterion to use. Many of them perform reasonably well when the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is high. The discrepancies in their performance, however, become more evident when the SNR is low. In those situations, the performance of the given technique is not only determined by the model structure (say a polynomial trend versus a Fourier series) but, more importantly, by the relative values of the parameters within the model. This makes the comparison between the model-order selection algorithms difficult as within the same model with a given order one could find an example for which one of the methods performs favourably well or fails [6, 8]. Our aim is to improve the performance of the model order selection criteria in cases where the SNR is low by considering a model-selection searching procedure that takes into account not only the full-model order search but also a partial model order search within the given model order. Understandably, the improvement in the performance of the model order estimation is at the expense of additional computational complexity.

The evaluation of qualitative methods selection in the field of design and emotion

The aim of this paper is to aid researchers in selecting appropriate qualitative methods in order to develop and improve future studies in the field of emotional design. These include observations, think-aloud protocols, questionnaires, diaries and interviews. Based on the authors’ experiences, it is proposed that the methods under review can be successfully used for collecting data on emotional responses to evaluate user product relationships. This paper reviews the methods; discusses the suitability, advantages and challenges in relation to design and emotion studies. Furthermore, the paper outlines the potential impact of technology on the application of these methods, discusses the implications of these methods for emotion research and concludes with recommendations for future work in this area.

Model-order selection in Zernike polynomial expansion of corneal surfaces using the efficient detection criterion

Corneal-height data are typically measured with videokeratoscopes and modeled using a set of orthogonal Zernike polynomials. We address the estimation of the number of Zernike polynomials, which is formalized as a model-order selection problem in linear regression. Classical information-theoretic criteria tend to overestimate the corneal surface due to the weakness of their penalty functions, while bootstrap-based techniques tend to underestimate the surface or require extensive processing. In this paper, we propose to use the efficient detection criterion (EDC), which has the same general form of information-theoretic-based criteria, as an alternative to estimating the optimal number of Zernike polynomials. We first show, via simulations, that the EDC outperforms a large number of information-theoretic criteria and resampling-based techniques. We then illustrate that using the EDC for real corneas results in models that are in closer agreement with clinical expectations and provides means for distinguishing normal corneal surfaces from astigmatic and keratoconic surfaces.

Retracing the Roots and Ideals of Confucian Principles of Governance: the Art of Regulating Governance without Legal Rules in Chinese Societies

Confucius was and still is one of the most eminent Chinese philosophers. Such is the importance of Confucius’s teachings; it had influenced all aspects of social life in Chinese societies. In the post-Enron, post-Worldcom, and post-Global Financial Crisis era there are raising doubts in the mantra of the so-called conventional wisdom about law and economic order. Whilst many recent publications offered solutions to those problems like advocating for more laws, rules or reforms in regulatory institutions to enhance the regulation of corporate governance. What Confucius advocated was a non-legal, social mode of regulation based on moral ideals that should be embedded into the minds of every person. Whilst this is an ancient concept from primitive societies, its relevance and merits could be seen in modern Chinese societies like Hong Kong. In essence, Confucian principles of governance build on relational and paternalistic order based on moral ideals.

Review : Surfers Paradise foreshore redevelopment masterplan - urban plaza zone

The Centre for Subtropical Design has prepared this submission to assist the Gold Coast City Council to finalise a plan and detailed design guidelines for the Urban Plaza Zone of Surfers Paradise Foreshore Redevelopment Masterplan which will create a public open space ‘alive’ with the quality appropriate to a place which is both a local centre and an international destination. This review has been informed by the two over-arching values identified as characteristics of a subtropical place and people’s connection to it:  A sense of openness and permeability, and  Engagement with the natural environment. The existing qualities of the foreshore area proposed as the Urban Plaza Zone, reflect these subtropical place values, and are integral to the Surfers Paradise identity:  Seamless visual and spatial access to the beach and sea,  Permeable interface between beach and built zones provided by beach planting and shade to sand by Pandanus,  A shade zone mediating beach and linear promenade, road and commercial zones, enabling a variety of social and visual experiences, on soft and hard finishes, and  A lively, constantly moving shared road and pedestrian way catering for events and day to day activities with visual access to beach and shaded areas. The Centre for Subtropical Design commends the Gold Coast City Council on preparing a plan for a public open space that is a contemporary departure from the adhoc basis of development that has occurred, in that it will make this area more accessible. However, the proposed plan seems to be working too hard in terms of ‘program’. While providing an identifiable interruption in the linear extent of the Foreshore, the lack of continuity of design in terms of both hardscaping (such as perpendicular paving elements) and softscaping (such as tree selections) may contribute to a lack of definition for the entire Foreshore as a place that mediates, along its length, between sea and land. Providing a hard edge to a beach character of soft and planted transitional elements needs to balance the proposed visual and physical barrier with the need for perceived and actual easy access. The Surfers Paradise identity needs strengthening through attention to planting for shade, materials, particularly selection of paving colours, and stronger delineation of the linear nature of the Foreshore. The Urban Plaza zone is an appropriate interruption to the continuous planting, however the link from the commercial zone overtakes the public and beach zone. A more seamless transition from shop to sea, better integration of the roadway and pedestrian zone and improved physical transition from concrete to sand is recommended. Built form solutions must be robust and designed with the subtropical design principles and the Surfers Paradise identity as underpinning parameters for a lasting and memorable public open space.

A site selection process for environmental offsetting purposes in Queensland

A method of selecting land in any region of Queensland for offsetting purposes is devised, employing uniform standards. The procedure first requires that any core natural asset lands, Crown environmental lands, prime urban and agricultural lands, and highly contentious sites in the region be eliminated from consideration. Other land is then sought that is located between existing large reservations and the centre of greatest potential regional development/disturbance. Using the criteria of rehabilitation (rather than preservation) plus proximity to those officially defined Regional Ecosystems that are most threatened, adjacent sites that are described as ‘Cleared’ are identified in terms of agricultural land capability. Class IV lands – defined as those ‘which may be safely used for occasional cultivation with careful management’,2 ‘where it is favourably located for special usage’,3 and where it is ‘helpful to those who are interested in industry or regional planning or in reconstruction’4 – are examined for their appropriate area, for current tenure and for any conditions such as Mining Leases that may exist. The positive impacts from offsets on adjoining lands can then be designed to be significant; examples are also offered in respect of riparian areas and of Marine Parks. Criteria against which to measure performance for trading purposes include functional lift, with other case studies about this matter reported separately in this issue. The procedure takes no account of demand side economics (financial additionality), which requires commercial rather than environmental analysis.

The exemplification of governance principles within state asset management laws and policies : the case of Indonesia

Efficient state asset management is crucial for governments as they facilitate the fulfillment of their public functions, which include the provision of essential services and other public administration support. In recent times economies internationally and particularly in South east Asia, have displayed increased recognition of the importance of efficiencies across state asset management law, policies and practice. This has been exemplified by a surge in notable instances of reform in state asset management. A prominent theme in this phenomenon is the consideration of governance principles within the re-conceptualization of state asset management law and related policy, with many countries recognizing variability in the quality of asset governance and opportunities for profit as being critical factors. This issue is very current in Indonesia where a major reform process in this area has been confirmed by the establishment of a new Directorate of State Asset Management. The incumbent Director-General of State Asset Management has confirmed a re-emphasis on adherence to governance principles within applicable state asset management law and policy reform. This paper reviews aspects of the challenge of reviewing and reforming Indonesian practice within state asset management law and policy specifically related to public housing, public buildings, parklands, and vacant land. A critical issue in beginning this review is how Indonesia currently conceptualizes the notion of asset governance and how this meaning is embodied in recent changes in law and policy and importantly in options for future change. This paper discusses the potential complexities uniquely Indonesian characteristics such as decentralisation and regional autonomy regime, political history, and bureaucratic culture

Investigating the process of teaching and learning principles through practice : a case study on collegiate action by media practitioners and teachers, designing a skills-based learning program

This paper in the journalism education field reports on the construction of a new subject as part of a postgraduate coursework degree. The subject, or unit1 will offer both Journalism students and other students an introductory experience of creating media, using common ‘new media’ tools, with exercises that will model the learning of communication principles through practice. It has been named ‘Fundamental Media Skills for the Workplace’. The conceptualisation and teaching of it will be characteristic of the Journalism academic discipline that uses the ‘inside perspective’—understanding mass media by observing from within. Proposers for the unit within the Journalism discipline have sought to extend the common teaching approach, based on training to produce start-ready recruits for media jobs, backed by a study of contexts, e.g. journalistic ethics, or media audiences. In this proposal, students would then examine the process to elicit additional knowledge about their learning. The paper draws on literature of journalism and its pedagogy, and on communication generally. It also documents a ‘community of practice’ exercise conducted among practitioners as teachers for the subject, developing exercises and models of media work. A preliminary conclusion from that exercise is that it has taken a step towards enhancing skills-based learning for media work, as a portal to more generalised knowledge.