Development and validation of a multilevel model for predicting workload under routine and nonroutine conditions in an air traffic management center

Objective: The aim of this study was to develop a model capable of predicting variability in the mental workload experienced by frontline operators under routine and nonroutine conditions. Background: Excess workload is a risk that needs to be managed in safety-critical industries. Predictive models are needed to manage this risk effectively yet are difficult to develop. Much of the difficulty stems from the fact that workload prediction is a multilevel problem. Method: A multilevel workload model was developed in Study 1 with data collected from an en route air traffic management center. Dynamic density metrics were used to predict variability in workload within and between work units while controlling for variability among raters. The model was cross-validated in Studies 2 and 3 with the use of a high-fidelity simulator. Results: Reported workload generally remained within the bounds of the 90% prediction interval in Studies 2 and 3. Workload crossed the upper bound of the prediction interval only under nonroutine conditions. Qualitative analyses suggest that nonroutine events caused workload to cross the upper bound of the prediction interval because the controllers could not manage their workload strategically. Conclusion: The model performed well under both routine and nonroutine conditions and over different patterns of workload variation. Application: Workload prediction models can be used to support both strategic and tactical workload management. Strategic uses include the analysis of historical and projected workflows and the assessment of staffing needs. Tactical uses include the dynamic reallocation of resources to meet changes in demand.

Cohort profile: Andhra Pradesh Children and Parents Study (APCAPS)

The Andhra Pradesh Children and Parents Study (APCAPS) was originally established to study the long-term effects of early-life undernutrition on risk of cardiovascular disease. Its aims were subsequently expanded to include trans-generational influences of other environmental and genetic factors on chronic diseases in rural India. It builds on the Hyderabad Nutrition Trial (HNT) conducted in 1987–90 to compare the effects on birthweight of a protein-calorie supplement for pregnant women and children. The index children of HNT and their mothers were retraced and examined in 2003–05, and the children re-examined as young adults aged 18–21 years in 2009–10. The cohort was expanded to include both parents and siblings of the index children in a recently completed follow-up conducted in 2010–12 (N = ∼6225 out of 10 213 participants). Recruitment of the remaining residents of these 29 villages (N = ∼55 000) in Ranga Reddy district of Andhra Pradesh is now under way. Extensive data on socio-demographic, lifestyle, medical, anthropometric, physiological, vascular and body composition measures, DNA, stored plasma, and assays of lipids and inflammatory markers on APCAPS participants are available. Details of how to access these data are available from the corresponding author.

Life-course determinants of bone mass in young adults from a transitional rural community in India: The Andhra Pradesh Children and Parents Study (APCAPS)

Background: Undernutrition and physical inactivity are both associated with lower bone mass. Objective: This study aimed to investigate the combined effects of early-life undernutrition and urbanized lifestyles in later life on bone mass accrual in young adults from a rural community in India that is undergoing rapid socioeconomic development. Design: This was a prospective cohort study of participants of the Hyderabad Nutrition Trial (1987–1990), which offered balanced protein-calorie supplementation to pregnant women and preschool children younger than 6 y in the intervention villages. The 2009–2010 follow-up study collected data on current anthropometric measures, bone mineral density (BMD) measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, blood samples, diet, physical activity, and living standards of the trial participants (n = 1446, aged 18–23 y). Results: Participants were generally lean and had low BMD [mean hip BMD: 0.83 (women), 0.95 (men) g/cm2; lumbar spine: 0.86 (women), 0.93 (men) g/cm2]. In models adjusted for current risk factors, no strong evidence of a positive association was found between BMD and early-life supplementation. On the other hand, current lean mass and weight-bearing physical activity were positively associated with BMD. No strong evidence of an association was found between BMD and current serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D or dietary intake of calcium, protein, or calories. Conclusions: Current lean mass and weight-bearing physical activity were more important determinants of bone mass than was early-life undernutrition in this population. In transitional rural communities from low-income countries, promotion of physical activity may help to mitigate any potential adverse effects of early nutritional disadvantage.

Localization of type 1 diabetes susceptibility to the MHC class I genes HLA-B and HLA-A

The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) on chromosome 6 is associated with susceptibility to more common diseases than any other region of the human genome, including almost all disorders classified as autoimmune. In type 1 diabetes the major genetic susceptibility determinants have been mapped to the MHC class II genes HLA-DQB1 and HLA-DRB1 (refs 1–3), but these genes cannot completely explain the association between type 1 diabetes and the MHC region4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11. Owing to the region's extreme gene density, the multiplicity of disease-associated alleles, strong associations between alleles, limited genotyping capability, and inadequate statistical approaches and sample sizes, which, and how many, loci within the MHC determine susceptibility remains unclear. Here, in several large type 1 diabetes data sets, we analyse a combined total of 1,729 polymorphisms, and apply statistical methods—recursive partitioning and regression...

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Pulse-echo ultrasound transit time spectroscopy: A comparison of experimental measurements and simulation prediction

Considering ultrasound propagation through complex composite media as an array of parallel sonic rays, a comparison of computer simulated prediction with experimental data has previously been reported for transmission mode (where one transducer serves as transmitter, the other as receiver) in a series of ten acrylic step-wedge samples, immersed in water, exhibiting varying degrees of transit time inhomogeneity. In this study, the same samples were used but in pulse-echo mode, where the same ultrasound transducer served as both transmitter and receiver, detecting both ‘primary’ (internal sample interface) and ‘secondary’ (external sample interface) echoes. A transit time spectrum (TTS) was derived, describing the proportion of sonic rays with a particular transit time. A computer simulation was performed to predict the transit time and amplitude of various echoes created, and compared with experimental data. Applying an amplitude-tolerance analysis, 91.7±3.7% of the simulated data was within ±1 standard deviation (STD) of the experimentally measured amplitude-time data. Correlation of predicted and experimental transit time spectra provided coefficients of determination (R2) ranging from 100.0% to 96.8% for the various samples tested. The results acquired from this study provide good evidence for the concept of parallel sonic rays. Further, deconvolution of experimental input and output signals has been shown to provide an effective method to identify echoes otherwise lost due to phase cancellation. Potential applications of pulse-echo ultrasound transit time spectroscopy (PE-UTTS) include improvement of ultrasound image fidelity by improving spatial resolution and reducing phase interference artefacts.

Solid volume fraction estimation of bone:marrow replica models using ultrasound transit time spectroscopy

The acceptance of broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA) for the assessment of osteoporosis suffers from a limited understanding of both ultrasound wave propagation through cancellous bone and its exact dependence upon the material and structural properties. It has recently been proposed that ultrasound wave propagation in cancellous bone may be described by a concept of parallel sonic rays; the transit time of each ray defined by the proportion of bone and marrow propagated. A Transit Time Spectrum (TTS) describes the proportion of sonic rays having a particular transit time, effectively describing the lateral inhomogeneity of transit times over the surface aperture of the receive ultrasound transducer. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that the solid volume fraction (SVF) of simplified bone:marrow replica models may be reliably estimated from the corresponding ultrasound transit time spectrum. Transit time spectra were derived via digital deconvolution of the experimentally measured input and output ultrasonic signals, and compared to predicted TTS based on the parallel sonic ray concept, demonstrating agreement in both position and amplitude of spectral peaks. Solid volume fraction was calculated from the TTS; agreement between true (geometric calculation) with predicted (computer simulation) and experimentally-derived values were R2=99.9% and R2=97.3% respectively. It is therefore envisaged that ultrasound transit time spectroscopy (UTTS) offers the potential to reliably estimate bone mineral density and hence the established T-score parameter for clinical osteoporosis assessment.

Reflecting on Reggio: An evaluation of design intent in an early childhood learning environment

Reggio Emilia is an educational philosophy that encourages teachers, students and their parents to collaborate and actively engage with the environment. This study investigates how the Reggio Emilia design approach was translated architecturally for a kindergarten in an Australian context, and provides insights into the operation of this Reggio kindergarten and the impact that it is now having on the occupants. It evaluates the original architectural design intent of the Reggio Emilia early childhood learning environment against its spatial provision. The relationship that the Reggio Emilia approach facilitates between students and the environment, and the contribution that this approach has on their learning, are also explored. Several key themes emerging from the Reggio values were identified in the literature. These were then used to inform an exploration of the kindergarten spaces and places.. Architects, teachers and a sustainability manager of the kindergarten were interviewed with their experiences constituting the primary data of this study. Using a Grounded Theory methodology, systematic data coding and analysis were then conducted. Themes and concepts that emerged from this process include: differing interpretations of the Reggio Emilia philosophy; motivations for neglect of traditional external structures and play equipment; the impact of education for sustainability; and the positive effects that Reggio Emilia is having on the rest of the institution’s development.

Separate and interacting effects within the catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) are associated with schizophrenia

Several lines of evidence have implicated the catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) gene as a candidate for schizophrenia (SZ) susceptibility, not only because it encodes a key dopamine catabolic enzyme but also because it maps to the velocardiofacial syndrome region of chromosome 22q11 which has long been associated with SZ predisposition. The interest in COMT as a candidate SZ risk factor has led to numerous case-control and family-based studies, with the majority placing emphasis on examining a functional Val/Met polymorphism within this enzyme. Unfortunately, these studies have continually produced conflicting results. To assess the genetic contribution of other COMT variants to SZ susceptibility, we investigated three single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (rs737865, rs4633, rs165599) in addition to the Val/Met variant (rs4680) in a highly selected sample of Australian Caucasian families containing 107 patients with SZ. The Val/Met and rs4633 variants showed nominally significant associations with SZ (P<0.05), although neither of the individual SNPs remained significant after adjusting for multiple testing (most significant P=0.1174). However, haplotype analyses showed strong evidence of an association; the most significant being the three-marker haplotype rs737865-rs4680-rs165599 (global P=0.0022), which spans more than 26 kb. Importantly, conditional analyses indicated the presence of two separate and interacting effects within this haplotype, irrespective of gender. In addition, our results indicate the Val/Met polymorphism is not disease-causing and is simply in strong linkage disequilibrium with a causative effect, which interacts with another as yet unidentified variant approximately 20 kb away. These results may help explain the inconsistent results reported on the Val/Met polymorphism and have important implications for future investigations into the role of COMT in SZ susceptibility.

Observations on the Architecture of Evil: A New Reading of Eichmann on Kant

En route from Birmingham to Syria in 2013, British-Jihadi neophytes aged 22, Yusuf Sarwar and Mohammed Ahmed purchased two books via Amazon to prepare for their mission in Syria after joining ISIS: The Koran for Dummies and Islam for Dummies. Journalists were swift to disparage their reading. The book’s author, Princeton University campus imam, Sohaib Nazeer Sultan remarked “Even though they may have ordered it, I don't think they read it.” In 1933, aged 27, Adolf Eichmann moved to Berlin to join the Sicherheitsdienst SD whereupon he read Immanuel Kant’s book the Kritik der praktischen Vernunft (The Critique of Practical Reason) for the first time. After his trial in Jerusalem, Hannah Arendt of course dismissed Eichmann’s reading of the German philosopher as thoroughly vacuous. Ever since, writers have sought to undermine the veracity of Eichmann’s account. The global Jihadis are illiterate, a journalist recently commented: they’re not well read in the Qur’an, and if they have read it, they have thoroughly misunderstood it. He cited as evidence Abdul Raqib Amin’s YouTube rhetorical: Forget everyone. Read the Koran, read the instruction of life. Find out what is jihad. Eichmann on the other hand was not illiterate in his youth. Before Berlin, he had already read Kant’s Groundwork of the Metaphysics of Morals ; he would also re-read the Critique of Practical Reason, and from his testimony and terminology we can infer he was familiar with Kantian concepts that extend beyond both books...

Case study 1: Nursing informatics and eHealth in Australia

There are currently many changes happening in nursing and healthcare in Australia. Healthcare reform has been high on the national government agenda and has created many changes in healthcare including eHealth. Healthcare information technologies and informatics are providing many challenges and excitement for the future of healthcare in Australia. The challenge for professional nursing organisations and nursing leaders of Australia is to be proactive in developments and initiatives for nursing to remain visible and viable in health care systems to safeguard the profession for the future as health care reform is implemented.

The Australian Nonprofit Sector Legal Almanac 2015

Collected summaries of court cases involving nonprofit organisations, from Australia and overseas, during 2015, along with updates of legislative changes in all Australian jurisdictions. Significant Australian cases included several disputes with State Revenue Authorities about exemption from payroll taxes.

Defects in the IFT-B component IFT172 cause Jeune and Mainzer-Saldino syndromes in humans

Intraflagellar transport (IFT) depends on two evolutionarily conserved modules, subcomplexes A (IFT-A) and B (IFT-B), to drive ciliary assembly and maintenance. All six IFT-A components and their motor protein, DYNC2H1, have been linked to human skeletal ciliopathies, including asphyxiating thoracic dystrophy (ATD; also known as Jeune syndrome), Sensenbrenner syndrome, and Mainzer-Saldino syndrome (MZSDS). Conversely, the 14 subunits in the IFT-B module, with the exception of IFT80, have unknown roles in human disease. To identify additional IFT-B components defective in ciliopathies, we independently performed different mutation analyses: candidate-based sequencing of all IFT-B-encoding genes in 1,467 individuals with a nephronophthisis-related ciliopathy or whole-exome resequencing in 63 individuals with ATD. We thereby detected biallelic mutations in the IFT-B-encoding gene IFT172 in 12 families. All affected individuals displayed abnormalities of the thorax and/or long bones, as well as renal, hepatic, or retinal involvement, consistent with the diagnosis of ATD or MZSDS. Additionally, cerebellar aplasia or hypoplasia characteristic of Joubert syndrome was present in 2 out of 12 families. Fibroblasts from affected individuals showed disturbed ciliary composition, suggesting alteration of ciliary transport and signaling. Knockdown of ift172 in zebrafish recapitulated the human phenotype and demonstrated a genetic interaction between ift172 and ift80. In summary, we have identified defects in IFT172 as a cause of complex ATD and MZSDS. Our findings link the group of skeletal ciliopathies to an additional IFT-B component, IFT172, similar to what has been shown for IFT-A.

Conversation Pieces

This curated exhibition presented works by Australian artists Agatha Gothe-Snape, Alex Martinis Roe and Hannah Raisin and collaborative works by Catherine or Kate (Catherine Sagin and Kate Woodcroft), Scott Ferguson (Erika Scott and Brooke Ferguson) and Courtney Coombs and Caitlin Franzmann. These artists engage with ideas of contemporary feminism through processes of dialogue and exchange, exploring subjectivity, humour and intimacy in performance and installation artworks. These works are generated by physical, verbal or textual dialogues between collaborators, participants or the artist and audience; and spark a conversation about contemporary feminist art practice in Australia today.