Predicting deadline tansgressions using event logs

Effective risk management is crucial for any organisation. One of its key steps is risk identification, but few tools exist to support this process. Here we present a method for the automatic discovery of a particular type of process-related risk, the danger of deadline transgressions or overruns, based on the analysis of event logs. We define a set of time-related process risk indicators, i.e., patterns observable in event logs that highlight the likelihood of an overrun, and then show how instances of these patterns can be identified automatically using statistical principles. To demonstrate its feasibility, the approach has been implemented as a plug-in module to the process mining framework ProM and tested using an event log from a Dutch financial institution.

Australian Diabetes Foot Network : management of diabetes-related foot ulceration — a clinical update

Summary Appropriate assessment and management of diabetes-related foot ulcers (DRFUs) is essential to reduce amputation risk. Management requires debridement, wound dressing, pressure off-loading, good glycaemic control and potentially antibiotic therapy and vascular intervention. As a minimum, all DRFUs should be managed by a doctor and a podiatrist and/or wound care nurse. Health professionals unable to provide appropriate care for people with DRFUs should promptly refer individuals to professionals with the requisite knowledge and skills. Indicators for immediate referral to an emergency department or multidisciplinary foot care team (MFCT) include gangrene, limb-threatening ischaemia, deep ulcers (bone, joint or tendon in the wound base), ascending cellulitis, systemic symptoms of infection and abscesses. Referral to an MFCT should occur if there is lack of wound progress after 4 weeks of appropriate treatment.

Assessing Cardiovascular Risk in Regional Areas: The Healthy Hearts – Beyond City Limits Program

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is more prevalent in regional and remote Australia compared to metropolitan areas. The aim of Healthy Hearts was to determine age and sex specific CVD risk factor levels and the potential value of national risk clinics. Methods: Healthy Hearts was an observational research study conducted in four purposefully selected higher risk communities in regional Victoria, Australia. The main outcome measures were the proportion of participants with CVD risk factors with group comparisons to determine the adjusted likelihood of elevated risk factor levels. Trained personnel used a standardized protocol over four weeks per community to measure CVD risk factor levels, estimate absolute CVD risk and provide feedback and advice. Results: A total of 2125 self-selected participants were assessed (mean age 58 ± 15 years, 57% women). Overall, CVD risk factors were highly prevalent. More men than women had ≥ 2 modifiable CVD risk factors (76% vs. 68%, p < .001), pre-existing CVD (20 vs. 15%, p < .01) and a major ECG abnormality requiring follow-up (15% vs. 7%, p < .001) . Less men reported depressive symptoms compared to women (28% vs. 22%, p < .01). A higher proportion of women were obese (adjusted OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.63), and physically inactive (adjusted OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.63). Conclusions: High CVD risk factor levels were confirmed for regional Victoria. Close engagement with individuals and communities provides scope for the application of regional risk management clinics to reduce the burden of CVD risk in regional Australia.

The role of, and key considerations for, advertising campaigns and educational awareness workshops within the work-related road safety context

Australian and international evidence suggests that, in the work-related driving context, road crashes account for a substantial number of occupational incidents. In the attempt to reduce injury and improve safety, organisations may implement an array of strategies and interventions ranging from policy development and implementation, vehicle selection and incident monitoring through to education and awareness-raising. This conceptual paper discusses aspects relating to the latter collection of interventions and, in particular, the role, and some key considerations with respect to the content and dissemination, of advertising campaigns and educational awareness workshops. In relation to advertising campaigns, this paper discusses how some of the overarching principles associated with advertising in the broader general community road safety strategy also apply within the work-related road safety context. Specifically, advertising campaigns/materials should be viewed as a key component within a dedicated organisational approach to road (driver) safety. This dedicated approach would need to comprise of a number, and varied array, of strategies. In addition, the content of, and medium/s (e.g., posters) by which to deliver such advertising campaigns, cannot be addressed by a one-size-fits all approach but, rather, requires careful consideration of the needs as well as characteristics of specific organisations and their driver fleet. The paper provides a summary of some key considerations when devising an advertising campaign, including the nature of campaign/message content as well as the processes by which to devise and refine such content. In relation to driver education awareness workshops, this paper outlines the key considerations for delivering a series of workshops specifically aimed at occupational driving within the organisational context. A case study approach will be utilised to demonstrate the manner in which educational awareness workshops can compliment successful advertising campaigns promoting safer work related driving through better risk management practice. Research underpinning the development of driver behaviour modification tools incorporated within the workshops will also be discussed along with the mechanisms utilised to encourage improvements in driver monitoring and behaviour. In an effort to assist organisations with their continual search for cost-effective approaches which may, ultimately, contribute to improvements in driver behaviour and safety, the current paper offers some clear and practical suggestions in relation to the development and dissemination of two types of interventions, advertising campaigns and education awareness workshops.

Risk modelling in quality clinical registries : Monitoring lesion treatment failure rate in percutaneous coronary interventions

Aims: This paper describes the development of a risk adjustment (RA) model predictive of individual lesion treatment failure in percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) for use in a quality monitoring and improvement program. Methods and results: Prospectively collected data for 3972 consecutive revascularisation procedures (5601 lesions) performed between January 2003 and September 2011 were studied. Data on procedures to September 2009 (n = 3100) were used to identify factors predictive of lesion treatment failure. Factors identified included lesion risk class (p < 0.001), occlusion type (p < 0.001), patient age (p = 0.001), vessel system (p < 0.04), vessel diameter (p < 0.001), unstable angina (p = 0.003) and presence of major cardiac risk factors (p = 0.01). A Bayesian RA model was built using these factors with predictive performance of the model tested on the remaining procedures (area under the receiver operating curve: 0.765, Hosmer–Lemeshow p value: 0.11). Cumulative sum, exponentially weighted moving average and funnel plots were constructed using the RA model and subjectively evaluated. Conclusion: A RA model was developed and applied to SPC monitoring for lesion failure in a PCI database. If linked to appropriate quality improvement governance response protocols, SPC using this RA tool might improve quality control and risk management by identifying variation in performance based on a comparison of observed and expected outcomes.

Profiling event logs to configure risk indicators for process delays

Risk identification is one of the most challenging stages in the risk management process. Conventional risk management approaches provide little guidance and companies often rely on the knowledge of experts for risk identification. In this paper we demonstrate how risk indicators can be used to predict process delays via a method for configuring so-called Process Risk Indicators(PRIs). The method learns suitable configurations from past process behaviour recorded in event logs. To validate the approach we have implemented it as a plug-in of the ProM process mining framework and have conducted experiments using various data sets from a major insurance company.

Natural disaster risk-informed for a better public infrastructure asset planning in Indonesian Central Government

The natural disasters incident that frequently hit Indonesia are floods, severe droughts, tsunamis, earth-quakes, volcano, eruptions, landslides, windstorm and forest fires. The impact of those natural disasters are significantly severe and affecting the quality of life of the community due to the breakdown of the public as-sets as one source to deliver public services. This paper is aimed to emphasis the importance of natural disaster risk-informed in relation to public asset management in Indonesian Central Government, particularly in asset planning stage where asset decision is made as the gate into the whole public asset management processes. A Case study in the Ministry of Finance Indonesia as the central government public asset manager and in 5 (five) line ministries/governmental agencies as public asset users was used as the approach to achieved the research objective. The case study devoured three data collection techniques i.e. interviews, observations and document archival which will be analysed by a content analysis approach. The result of the study indicates that Indonesian geographical position exposing many of public infra-structure assets as a high vulnerability to natural disasters. Information on natural-disaster trends and predictions to identify and measure the risks are available, however, such information are not utilise and integrated to the process of public infrastructure asset planning as the gate to the whole public asset management processes. Therefore, in order to accommodate and incorporate this natural disaster risk-information into public asset management processes, particularly in public asset planning, a public asset performance measurements framework should be adopted and applied in the process as one sources in making decision for infrastructure asset planning. Findings from this study provide useful input for the Ministry of Finance as public asset manager, scholars and private asset management practitioners in Indonesia to establish natural disaster risks awareness in public infrastructure asset management processes.

Rethinking emergency management and climate adaptation policies

Emergency management and climate change adaptation will increasingly challenge all levels of government because of three main factors. First, Australia is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, particularly through the increasing frequency and/or intensity of disasters such as floods and bushfires. Second, the system of government that divides powers by function and level can often act as a barrier to a well-integrated response. Third, policymaking processes struggle to cope with such complex inter-jurisdictional issues. This paper discusses these factors and explores the nature of the challenge for Australian governments. Investigations into the 2009 Victorian bushfires, the 2011 Perth Hills bushfires, and the 2011 Brisbane floods offer an indication of the challenges ahead and it is argued that there is a need to: improve community engagement and communication; refocus attention on resilience; improve interagency communication and collaboration; and, develop institutional arrangements that support continual improvement and policy learning. These findings offer an opportunity for improving responses as well as a starting point for integrating disaster risk management and climate change adaptation policies. The paper is based on the preliminary findings of an NCCARF funded research project: The Right Tool for the Job – Achieving climate change adaptation outcomes through improved disaster management policies, planning and risk management strategies involving Griffith University and RMIT.

Development of a computer based 1D-2D dynamic flood model. Case study of the Pagsangaan river basin in Leyte, the Philippines

Floods are among the most devastating events that affect primarily tropical, archipelagic countries such as the Philippines. With the current predictions of climate change set to include rising sea levels, intensification of typhoon strength and a general increase in the mean annual precipitation throughout the Philippines, it has become paramount to prepare for the future so that the increased risk of floods on the country does not translate into more economic and human loss. Field work and data gathering was done within the framework of an internship at the former German Technical Cooperation (GTZ) in cooperation with the Local Government Unit of Ormoc City, Leyte, The Philippines, in order to develop a dynamic computer based flood model for the basin of the Pagsangaan River. To this end, different geo-spatial analysis tools such as PCRaster and ArcGIS, hydrological analysis packages and basic engineering techniques were assessed and implemented. The aim was to develop a dynamic flood model and use the development process to determine the required data, availability and impact on the results as case study for flood early warning systems in the Philippines. The hope is that such projects can help to reduce flood risk by including the results of worst case scenario analyses and current climate change predictions into city planning for municipal development, monitoring strategies and early warning systems. The project was developed using a 1D-2D coupled model in SOBEK (Deltares Hydrological modelling software package) and was also used as a case study to analyze and understand the influence of different factors such as land use, schematization, time step size and tidal variation on the flood characteristics. Several sources of relevant satellite data were compared, such as Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) from ASTER and SRTM data, as well as satellite rainfall data from the GIOVANNI server (NASA) and field gauge data. Different methods were used in the attempt to partially calibrate and validate the model to finally simulate and study two Climate Change scenarios based on scenario A1B predictions. It was observed that large areas currently considered not prone to floods will become low flood risk (0.1-1 m water depth). Furthermore, larger sections of the floodplains upstream of the Lilo- an’s Bridge will become moderate flood risk areas (1 - 2 m water depth). The flood hazard maps created for the development of the present project will be presented to the LGU and the model will be used to create a larger set of possible flood prone areas related to rainfall intensity by GTZ’s Local Disaster Risk Management Department and to study possible improvements to the current early warning system and monitoring of the basin section belonging to Ormoc City; recommendations about further enhancement of the geo-hydro-meteorological data to improve the model’s accuracy mainly on areas of interest will also be presented at the LGU.

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest Virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Creativity management : the new challenge for BPM

Besides classical criteria such as cost and overall organizational efficiency, an organization’s ability to being creative and to innovate is of increasing importance in markets that are overwhelmed with commodity products and services. Business Process Management (BPM) as an approach to model, analyze, and improve business processes has been successfully applied not only to enhance performance and reduce cost but also to facilitate business imperatives such as risk management and knowledge management. Can BPM also facilitate the management of creativity? We can find many examples where enterprises unintentionally reduced or even killed creativity and innovation for the sake of control, performance, and cost reduction. Based on the experiences we have made within case studies with organizations from the creative industries (film industry, visual effects production, etc.,) we believe that BPM can be a facilitator providing the glue between creativity management and well-established business principles. In this article we introduce the notions of creativity-intensive processes and pockets of creativity as new BPM concepts. We further propose a set of exemplary strategies that enable process owners and process managers to achieve creativity without sacrificing creativity. Our aim is to set the baseline for further discussions on what we call creativity-oriented BPM.

Risk mitigation of post-earthquake fire in urban buildings

Post-earthquake fire (PEF) is considered one of the most high risk and complicated problems affecting buildings in urban areas and can cause even more damage than the earthquake itself. However, most standards and codes ignore the implications of PEF and so buildings are not normally designed with PEF in mind. What is needed is for PEF factors to be routinely scrutinized and codified as part of the design process. A systematic application is presented as a means of mitigating the risk of PEF in urban buildings. This covers both existing buildings, in terms of retrofit solutions, and those yet to be designed, where a PEF factor is proposed. To ensure the mitigation strategy meets the defined criteria, a minimum time is defined – the safety guaranteed time target – where the safety of the inhabitants in a building is guaranteed.

Business continuity management in airports : securing continuity in the face of crisis

This thesis investigated both the potential for Business Continuity Management to enhance organisational reliability, and appropriate levels of Business Continuity Management capability resident in a number of Australian international and regional airports. Findings indicated that a host of regulatory and business processes including Business Continuity Management can assist in creating reliability in aviation infrastructure systems in Australia. Further, the thesis developed a multi-level maturity assessment framework for defining the depth of implementation of Business Continuity Management capabilities in airports, along with other recommendations to improve functional reliability of airport operations.

Re-framing planning decision-making : increasing flood resilience in Jakarta

Purpose – Rapid urbanisation, fragmented governance and recurrent flooding complicates resolution of DKI Jakarta’s chronic housing shortage. Failure to effectively implement planning decisionmaking processes poses potential human rights violations. Contemporary planning policy requires the relocation of households living in floodplains within fifteen metres of DKI Jakarta’s main watercourses; further constraining land availability and potentially requiring increased densification. The purpose of this paper is to re-frame planning decision-making to address risks of flooding and to increase community resilience. Design/methodology/approach – This paper presents a preliminary scoping study for a technologically enhanced participatory planning method, incorporating synthesis of existing information on urbanisation, governance, and flood risk management in Jakarta. Findings – Responsibility for flood risk management in DKI Jakarta is fragmented both within and across administrative boundaries. Decision-making is further complicated by: limited availability of land use data; uncertainty as to the delineated extent of watercourses, floodplains, and flood modelling; unclear risk and liability for infrastructure investments; and technical literacy of both public and government participants. Practical implications – This research provides information to facilitate consultation with government entities tasked with re-framing planning processes to increase public participation. Social implications – Reduction in risk exposure amongst DKI Jakarta’s most vulnerable populations addresses issues of social justice.

20 Years of pacifying responses to environmental management

Using a state, pressure, response framework, we provide an evidence-based reflection on environmental outcomes in Australia and New Zealand across the domains of climate change, biodiversity, freshwater and marine management, emphasising the role of Indigenous and business perspectives. Significant developments have occurred in the past 20 years through affirmation of Indigenous rights and responsibilities. Responses to climate change have tended to emphasise passive risk management with unclear outcomes. Despite meeting biodiversity protection targets, outcomes are worsening, suggesting a need to challenge the dualistic preservation/production land categorisations. In freshwater and marine management, a mix of collaborative and market-based responses has emerged, although their efficacy remains untested. A reliance on voluntary approaches by business makes critical assessment of progress difficult. Thus, despite strong progress in some areas, the adaptiveness of environmental management remains limited, and many indicators suggest continuing decline in environmental condition. Our responses have been largely pacifying in nature, leading to perverse outcomes and failure to acknowledge alternatives that might address deteriorating environmental conditions. A shift is needed towards deliberative policy experimentation that truly values the application of novel and diversified approaches and facilitates integrated learning across environmental domains.