Reliability analysis and economic equipment replacement appraisal for substation and sub-transmission systems with explicit inclusion of non-repairable failures

The modern society has come to expect the electrical energy on demand, while many of the facilities in power systems are aging beyond repair and maintenance. The risk of failure is increasing with the aging equipments and can pose serious consequences for continuity of electricity supply. As the equipments used in high voltage power networks are very expensive, economically it may not be feasible to purchase and store spares in a warehouse for extended periods of time. On the other hand, there is normally a significant time before receiving equipment once it is ordered. This situation has created a considerable interest in the evaluation and application of probability methods for aging plant and provisions of spares in bulk supply networks, and can be of particular importance for substations. Quantitative adequacy assessment of substation and sub-transmission power systems is generally done using a contingency enumeration approach which includes the evaluation of contingencies, classification of the contingencies based on selected failure criteria. The problem is very complex because of the need to include detailed modelling and operation of substation and sub-transmission equipment using network flow evaluation and to consider multiple levels of component failures. In this thesis a new model associated with aging equipment is developed to combine the standard tools of random failures, as well as specific model for aging failures. This technique is applied in this thesis to include and examine the impact of aging equipments on system reliability of bulk supply loads and consumers in distribution network for defined range of planning years. The power system risk indices depend on many factors such as the actual physical network configuration and operation, aging conditions of the equipment, and the relevant constraints. The impact and importance of equipment reliability on power system risk indices in a network with aging facilities contains valuable information for utilities to better understand network performance and the weak links in the system. In this thesis, algorithms are developed to measure the contribution of individual equipment to the power system risk indices, as part of the novel risk analysis tool. A new cost worth approach was developed in this thesis that can make an early decision in planning for replacement activities concerning non-repairable aging components, in order to maintain a system reliability performance which economically is acceptable. The concepts, techniques and procedures developed in this thesis are illustrated numerically using published test systems. It is believed that the methods and approaches presented, substantially improve the accuracy of risk predictions by explicit consideration of the effect of equipment entering a period of increased risk of a non-repairable failure.

Vibration of L-shaped plates under a deterministic force or moment excitation : a case of statistical energy analysis application

Analytical and closed form solutions are presented in this paper for the vibration response of an L-shaped plate under a point force or a moment excitation. Inter-relationships between wave components of the source and the receiving plates are clearly defined. Explicit expressions are given for the quadratic quantities such as input power, energy flow and kinetic energy distributions of the L-shaped plate. Applications of statistical energy analysis (SEA) formulation in the prediction of the vibration response of finite coupled plate structures under a single deterministic forcing are examined and quantified. It is found that the SEA method can be employed to predict the frequency averaged vibration response and energy flow of coupled plate structures under a deterministic force or moment excitation when the structural system satisfies the following conditions: (1) the coupling loss factors of the coupled subsystems are known; (2) the source location is more than a quarter of the plate bending wavelength away from the source plate edges in the point force excitation case, or is more than a quarter wavelength away from the pair of source plate edges perpendicular to the moment axis in the moment excitation case due to the directional characteristic of moment excitations. SEA overestimates the response of the L-shaped plate when the source location is less than a quarter bending wavelength away from the respective plate edges owing to wave coherence effect at the plate boundary

Resonance : a music director’s theomusicological study of ‘praise’ and ‘glory’ in a selection of four liturgical music excerpts

Some of my most powerful spiritual experiences have come from the splendorous and sublime sounding hymns performed by a choir and church organ at the traditional Anglican church I’ve attended since I was very young. In the later stage of my life, my pursuit of education in the field of engineering caused me to move to Australia where I regularly attended a contemporary evangelical church and subsequently became a music director in the faith community. This environmental and cultural shift altered my perception and musical experiences of Christian music and led me to enquire about the relationship between Christian liturgy and church music. Throughout history church musicians and composers have synthesised the theological, congregational, cultural and musical aspects of church liturgy. Many great composers have taken into account the conditions surrounding the process of sacred composition and arrangement of music to enhance the experience of religious ecstasy – they sought resonances with Christian values and beliefs to draw congregational participation into the light of praising and glorifying God. As a music director in an evangelical church this aspiration has become one I share. I hope to identify and define the qualities of these resonances that have been successful and apply them to my own practice. Introduction and Structure of the Thesis In this study I will examine four purposively selected excerpts of Christian church vocal music combining theomusicological and semiotic analysis to help identify guidelines that might be useful in my practice as a church music director. The four musical excerpts have been selected based upon their sustained musical and theological impact over time, and their ability to affect ecstatic responses from congregations. This thesis documents a personal journey through analysis of music and uses a context that draws upon ethno-musicological, theological and semiotic tools that lead to a preliminary framework and principles which can then be applied to the identified qualities of resonance in church music today. The thesis is comprised of four parts. Part 1 presents a literature study on the relationship between sacred music, the effects of religious ecstasy and the Christian church. Multiple lenses on this phenomenon are drawn from the viewpoints of prominent western church historians, Biblical theologians, and philosophers. The literature study continues in Part 2, where the role of embodiment is examined from the current perspective of cognitive learning environments. This study offers a platform for a critical reflection on two distinctive musical liturgical systems that have treated differently the notion of embodied understanding amidst a shifting church paradigm. This allows an in-depth theological and philosophical understanding of the liturgical conditions around sacred music-making that relates to the monistic and dualistic body/mind. Part 3 involves undertaking a theomusicological methodology that utilises creative case studies of four purposively selected spiritual pieces. A semiotic study focuses on specific sections of sacred vocal works that express the notions of ‘praise’ and ‘glorification’, particularly in relation to these effects,which combine an analysis of theological perspectives around religious ecstasy and particular spiritual themes. Part 4 presents the critiques and findings gathered from the study that incorporate theoretical and technological means to analyse the purposive selected musical artefact, particularly with the sonic narratives expressing notions of ‘Praise' and 'Glory’. The musical findings are further discussed in relation to the notion of resonance, and then a conceptual framework for the role of contemporary musicdirector is proposed. The musical and Christian terminologies used in the thesis are explained in the glossary, and the appendices includes tables illustrating the musical findings, conducted surveys, written musical analyses and audio examples of selected sacred pieces available on the enclosed compact disc.

High frequency of BRAF mutations in nevi

To evaluate the timing of mutations in BRAF (v-raf murine sarcoma viral oncogene homolog B1) during melanocytic neoplasia, we carried out mutation analysis on microdissected melanoma and nevi samples. We observed mutations resulting in the V599E amino-acid substitution in 41 of 60 (68%) melanoma metastases, 4 of 5 (80%) primary melanomas and, unexpectedly, in 63 of 77 (82%) nevi. These data suggest that mutational activation of the RAS/RAF/MAPK pathway in nevi is a critical step in the initiation of melanocytic neoplasia but alone is insufficient for melanoma tumorigenesis.

Contribution of take-out food consumption to socioeconomic differences in fruit and vegetable intake : a mediation analysis

Lower fruit and vegetable intake among socioeconomically disadvantaged groups has been well documented, and may be a consequence of a higher consumption of take-out foods. This study examined whether, and to what extent, take-out food consumption mediated (explained) the association between socioeconomic position and fruit and vegetable intake. A cross-sectional postal survey was conducted among 1500 randomly selected adults aged 25–64 years in Brisbane, Australia in 2009 (response rate = 63.7%, N = 903). A food frequency questionnaire assessed usual daily servings of fruits and vegetables (0 to 6), overall take-out consumption (times/week) and the consumption of 22 specific take-out items (never to ≥once/day). These specific take-out items were grouped into “less healthy” and “healthy” choices and indices were created for each type of choice (0 to 100). Socioeconomic position was ascertained by education. The analyses were performed using linear regression, and a bootstrap re-sampling approach estimated the statistical significance of the mediated effects. Mean daily serves of fruits and vegetables was 1.89 (SD 1.05) and 2.47 (SD 1.12) respectively. The least educated group were more likely to consume fewer serves of fruit (B= –0.39, p<0.001) and vegetables (B= –0.43, p<0.001) compared with the highest educated. The consumption of “less healthy” take-out food partly explained (mediated) education differences in fruit and vegetable intake; however, no mediating effects were observed for overall and “healthy” take-out consumption. Regular consumption of “less healthy” take-out items may contribute to socioeconomic differences in fruit and vegetable intake, possibly by displacing these foods.

Frequency response function based structural damage detection using artificial neural networks

Damage detection in structures has become increasingly important in recent years. While a number of damage detection and localization methods have been proposed, few attempts have been made to explore the structure damage with frequency response functions (FRFs). This paper illustrates the damage identification and condition assessment of a beam structure using a new frequency response functions (FRFs) based damage index and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). In practice, usage of all available FRF data as an input to artificial neural networks makes the training and convergence impossible. Therefore one of the data reduction techniques Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is introduced in the algorithm. In the proposed procedure, a large set of FRFs are divided into sub-sets in order to find the damage indices for different frequency points of different damage scenarios. The basic idea of this method is to establish features of damaged structure using FRFs from different measurement points of different sub-sets of intact structure. Then using these features, damage indices of different damage cases of the structure are identified after reconstructing of available FRF data using PCA. The obtained damage indices corresponding to different damage locations and severities are introduced as input variable to developed artificial neural networks. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated and validated by using the finite element modal of a beam structure. The illustrated results show that the PCA based damage index is suitable and effective for structural damage detection and condition assessment of building structures.

Estimating the loading condition of a diesel engine using instantaneous angular speed analysis

Continuing monitoring of diesel engine performance is critical for early detection of fault developments in the engine before they materialize and become a functional failure. Instantaneous crank angular speed (IAS) analysis is one of a few non intrusive condition monitoring techniques that can be utilized for such tasks. In this experimental study, IAS analysis was employed to estimate the loading condition of a 4-stroke 4-cylinder diesel engine in a laboratory condition. It was shown that IAS analysis can provide useful information about engine speed variation caused by the changing piston momentum and crankshaft acceleration during the engine combustion process. It was also found that the major order component of the IAS spectrum directly associated with the engine firing frequency (at twice the mean shaft revolution speed) can be utilized to estimate the engine loading condition regardless of whether the engine is operating at normal running conditions or in a simulated faulty injector case. The amplitude of this order component follows a clear exponential curve as the loading condition changes. A mathematical relationship was established for the estimation of the engine power output based on the amplitude of the major order component of the measured IAS spectrum.

Estimating the loading condition of a diesel engine using instantaneous angular speed analysis

Continuing monitoring of diesel engine performance is critical for early detection of fault developments in the engine before they materialize and become a functional failure. Instantaneous crank angular speed (IAS) analysis is one of a few non intrusive condition monitoring techniques that can be utilized for such tasks. In this experimental study, IAS analysis was employed to estimate the loading condition of a 4-stroke 4-cylinder diesel engine in a laboratory condition. It was shown that IAS analysis can provide useful information about engine speed variation caused by the changing piston momentum and crankshaft acceleration during the engine combustion process. It was also found that the major order component of the IAS spectrum directly associated with the engine firing frequency (at twice the mean shaft revolution speed) can be utilized to estimate the engine loading condition regardless of whether the engine is operating at normal running conditions or in a simulated faulty injector case. The amplitude of this order component follows a clear exponential curve as the loading condition changes. A mathematical relationship was established for the estimation of the engine power output based on the amplitude of the major order component of the measured IAS spectrum.

Multifractal analysis of geomagnetic storm and solar flare indices and their class dependence

The multifractal properties of two indices of geomagnetic activity, D st (representative of low latitudes) and a p (representative of the global geomagnetic activity), with the solar X-ray brightness, X l , during the period from 1 March 1995 to 17 June 2003 are examined using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). The h(q) curves of D st and a p in the MF-DFA are similar to each other, but they are different from that of X l , indicating that the scaling properties of X l are different from those of D st and a p . Hence, one should not predict the magnitude of magnetic storms directly from solar X-ray observations. However, a strong relationship exists between the classes of the solar X-ray irradiance (the classes being chosen to separate solar flares of class X-M, class C, and class B or less, including no flares) in hourly measurements and the geomagnetic disturbances (large to moderate, small, or quiet) seen in D st and a p during the active period. Each time series was converted into a symbolic sequence using three classes. The frequency, yielding the measure representations, of the substrings in the symbolic sequences then characterizes the pattern of space weather events. Using the MF-DFA method and traditional multifractal analysis, we calculate the h(q), D(q), and τ (q) curves of the measure representations. The τ (q) curves indicate that the measure representations of these three indices are multifractal. On the basis of this three-class clustering, we find that the h(q), D(q), and τ (q) curves of the measure representations of these three indices are similar to each other for positive values of q. Hence, a positive flare storm class dependence is reflected in the scaling exponents h(q) in the MF-DFA and the multifractal exponents D(q) and τ (q). This finding indicates that the use of the solar flare classes could improve the prediction of the D st classes.

Evaluation of modal analysis techniques using physical models to detect osseointegration of implants in transfemoral amputees

Non-invasive vibration analysis has been used extensively to monitor the progression of dental implant healing and stabilization. It is now being considered as a method to monitor femoral implants in transfemoral amputees. This paper evaluates two modal analysis excitation methods and investigates their capabilities in detecting changes at the interface between the implant and the bone that occur during osseointegration. Excitation of bone-implant physical models with the electromagnetic shaker provided higher coherence values and a greater number of modes over the same frequency range when compared to the impact hammer. Differences were detected in the natural frequencies and fundamental mode shape of the model when the fit of the implant was altered in the bone. The ability to detect changes in the model dynamic properties demonstrates the potential of modal analysis in this application and warrants further investigation.

Structural damage detection using frequency response functions and neural networks

This paper illustrates the damage identification and condition assessment of a three story bookshelf structure using a new frequency response functions (FRFs) based damage index and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). A major obstacle of using measured frequency response function data is a large size input variables to ANNs. This problem is overcome by applying a data reduction technique called principal component analysis (PCA). In the proposed procedure, ANNs with their powerful pattern recognition and classification ability were used to extract damage information such as damage locations and severities from measured FRFs. Therefore, simple neural network models are developed, trained by Back Propagation (BP), to associate the FRFs with the damage or undamaged locations and severity of the damage of the structure. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated and validated by using the real data provided by the Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA. The illustrated results show that the PCA based artificial Neural Network method is suitable and effective for damage identification and condition assessment of building structures. In addition, it is clearly demonstrated that the accuracy of proposed damage detection method can also be improved by increasing number of baseline datasets and number of principal components of the baseline dataset.

Structural damage identification with noise polluted Frequency Response Functions (FRFs)

Damage detection in structures has become increasingly important in recent years. While a number of damage detection and localization methods have been proposed, very few attempts have been made to explore the structure damage with noise polluted data which is unavoidable effect in real world. The measurement data are contaminated by noise because of test environment as well as electronic devices and this noise tend to give error results with structural damage identification methods. Therefore it is important to investigate a method which can perform better with noise polluted data. This paper introduces a new damage index using principal component analysis (PCA) for damage detection of building structures being able to accept noise polluted frequency response functions (FRFs) as input. The FRF data are obtained from the function datagen of MATLAB program which is available on the web site of the IASC-ASCE (International Association for Structural Control– American Society of Civil Engineers) Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) Task Group. The proposed method involves a five-stage process: calculation of FRFs, calculation of damage index values using proposed algorithm, development of the artificial neural networks and introducing damage indices as input parameters and damage detection of the structure. This paper briefly describes the methodology and the results obtained in detecting damage in all six cases of the benchmark study with different noise levels. The proposed method is applied to a benchmark problem sponsored by the IASC-ASCE Task Group on Structural Health Monitoring, which was developed in order to facilitate the comparison of various damage identification methods. The illustrated results show that the PCA-based algorithm is effective for structural health monitoring with noise polluted FRFs which is of common occurrence when dealing with industrial structures.

Magnetic resonance spectroscopy and neurocognitive dysfunction in obstructive sleep apnea before and after CPAP treatment

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To determine whether cerebral metabolite changes may underlie abnormalities of neurocognitive function and respiratory control in OSA. DESIGN: Observational, before and after CPAP treatment. SETTING: Two tertiary hospital research institutes. PARTICIPANTS: 30 untreated severe OSA patients, and 25 age-matched healthy controls, all males free of comorbidities, and all having had detailed structural brain analysis using voxel-based morphometry (VBM). MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Single voxel bilateral hippocampal and brainstem, and multivoxel frontal metabolite concentrations were measured using magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) in a high resolution (3T) scanner. Subjects also completed a battery of neurocognitive tests. Patients had repeat testing after 6 months of CPAP. There were significant differences at baseline in frontal N-acetylaspartate/choline (NAA/Cho) ratios (patients [mean (SD)] 4.56 [0.41], controls 4.92 [0.44], P = 0.001), and in hippocampal choline/creatine (Cho/Cr) ratios (0.38 [0.04] vs 0.41 [0.04], P = 0.006), (both ANCOVA, with age and premorbid IQ as covariates). No longitudinal changes were seen with treatment (n = 27, paired t tests), however the hippocampal differences were no longer significant at 6 months, and frontal NAA/Cr ratios were now also significantly different (patients 1.55 [0.13] vs control 1.65 [0.18] P = 0.01). No significant correlations were found between spectroscopy results and neurocognitive test results, but significant negative correlations were seen between arousal index and frontal NAA/Cho (r = -0.39, corrected P = 0.033) and between % total sleep time at SpO(2) < 90% and hippocampal Cho/Cr (r = -0.40, corrected P = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: OSA patients have brain metabolite changes detected by MRS, suggestive of decreased frontal lobe neuronal viability and integrity, and decreased hippocampal membrane turnover. These regions have previously been shown to have no gross structural lesions using VBM. Little change was seen with treatment with CPAP for 6 months. No correlation of metabolite concentrations was seen with results on neurocognitive tests, but there were significant negative correlations with OSA severity as measured by severity of nocturnal hypoxemia. CITATION: O'Donoghue FJ; Wellard RM; Rochford PD; Dawson A; Barnes M; Ruehland WR; Jackson ML; Howard ME; Pierce RJ; Jackson GD. Magnetic resonance spectroscopy and neurocognitive dysfunction in obstructive sleep apnea before and after CPAP treatment.

Analysis of conical-cylinder shells fundamental characteristics for structural health diagnostics

This paper describes the formulation for the free vibration of joined conical-cylindrical shells with uniform thickness using the transfer of influence coefficient for identification of structural characteristics. These characteristics are importance for structural health monitoring to develop model. This method was developed based on successive transmission of dynamic influence coefficients, which were defined as the relationships between the displacement and the force vectors at arbitrary nodal circles of the system. The two edges of the shell having arbitrary boundary conditions are supported by several elastic springs with meridional/axial, circumferential, radial and rotational stiffness, respectively. The governing equations of vibration of a conical shell, including a cylindrical shell, are written as a coupled set of first order differential equations by using the transfer matrix of the shell. Once the transfer matrix of a single component has been determined, the entire structure matrix is obtained by the product of each component matrix and the joining matrix. The natural frequencies and the modes of vibration were calculated numerically for joined conical-cylindrical shells. The validity of the present method is demonstrated through simple numerical examples, and through comparison with the results of previous researchers.