Framework for investment decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.

Comparative study of guidelines and practices for building infrastructure asset management

This paper presents a comparative study of primarily Australian (and limited international) practices and guidelines on Buildings Asset Management (BAM). The objective of this study was to identify potential gaps in current practices and potential areas of research for further improvement. The paper starts with an overview of BAM. Later sections cover current BAM practices and guidelines across different states of Australia; give a limited overview of international practices and concludes with the authors’ observations.

Road Asset Management Investment

Australias civil infrastructure assets of roads, bridges, railways, buildings and other structures are worth billions of dollars. To effectively manage road infrastructures, road agencies firstly need to optimise the expenditure for data collection whilst not jeopardising the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates can be accurately calculated. Finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must be reasonably reliable.

Wet potential

Water is so fundamental to everything that it is almost impossible to meaningfully conceptualise it, which is why it forms the basis of pretty much everything. To suggest that landscape architecture has some sort of privilege with it would be deluded. But, as alchemists of “the world”, we are both expected to deal with it professionally, as well as being forced to do so practically in making anything real, built in that same “world”. When people use words too much, that is the signifiers of things in sound, they become a kind of conceptual short hand to what they are referring to. You can hear this short hand when they use the word, as it gets grammatically dealt with differently – it becomes a conceptual object – a different type of noun. Water is one of these words, and as a supervisor I have almost universally seen students refer to it like this, by the end of their projects, and then have to force themselves to reconsider what it was about water that made them interested in water in the first place. This process is a transition of ideas and technology and technique, and will be the subject of this essay, tracking students responses to the weird substance in design subjects I have taught or projects I have supervised at RMIT since 1997, to and from and then again back to the qualities and issues of water for people generally, and landscape architecture in particular.

Incorporating an economic model in the health impact assessment approach

The current policy decision making in Australia regarding non-health public investments (for example, transport/housing/social welfare programmes) does not quantify health benefits and costs systematically. To address this knowledge gap, this study proposes an economic model for quantifying health impacts of public policies in terms of dollar value. The intention is to enable policy-makers in conducting economic evaluation of health effects of non-health policies and in implementing policies those reduce health inequalities as well as enhance positive health gains of the target population. Health Impact Assessment (HIA) provides an appropriate framework for this study since HIA assesses the beneficial and adverse effects of a programme/policy on public health and on health inequalities through the distribution of those effects. However, HIA usually tries to influence the decision making process using its scientific findings, mostly epidemiological and toxicological evidence. In reality, this evidence can not establish causal links between policy and health impacts since it can not explain how an individual or a community reacts to changing circumstances. The proposed economic model addresses this health-policy linkage using a consumer choice approach that can explain changes in group and individual behaviour in a given economic set up. The economic model suggested in this paper links epidemiological findings with economic analysis to estimate the health costs and benefits of public investment policies. That is, estimating dollar impacts when health status of the exposed population group changes by public programmes – for example, transport initiatives to reduce congestion by building new roads/ highways/ tunnels etc. or by imposing congestion taxes. For policy evaluation purposes, the model is incorporated in the HIA framework by establishing association among identified factors, which drive changes in the behaviour of target population group and in turn, in the health outcomes. The economic variables identified to estimate the health inequality and health costs are levels of income, unemployment, education, age groups, disadvantaged population groups, mortality/morbidity etc. However, though the model validation using case studies and/or available database from Australian non-health policy (say, transport) arena is in the future tasks agenda, it is beyond the scope of this current paper.

Fatal motorcycle crashes in north Queensland : characteristics and potential interventions

Aims: The Rural and Remote Road Safety Study (RRRSS) addresses a recognised need for greater research on road trauma in rural and remote Australia, the costs of which are disproportionately high compared with urban areas. The 5-year multi-phase study with whole-of-government support concluded in June 2008. Drawing on RRRSS data, we analysed fatal motorcycle crashes which occurred over 39 months to provide a description of crash characteristics, contributing factors and people involved. The descriptive analysis and discussion may inform development of tailored motorcycle safety interventions. Methods: RRRSS criteria sought vehicle crashes resulting in death or hospitalisation for 24 hours minimum of at least 1 person aged 16 years or over, in the study area defined roughly as the Queensland area north from Bowen in the east and Boulia in the west (excluding Townsville and Cairns urban areas). Fatal motorcycle crashes were selected from the RRRSS dataset. Analysis considered medical data covering injury types and severity, evidence of alcohol, drugs and prior medical conditions, as well as crash descriptions supplied by police to Queensland Transport on contributing circumstances, vehicle types, environmental conditions and people involved. Crash data were plotted in a geographic information system (MapInfo) for spatial analysis. Results: There were 23 deaths from 22 motorcycle crashes on public roads meeting RRRSS criteria. Of these, half were single vehicle crashes and half involved 2 or more vehicles. In contrast to general patterns for driver/rider age distribution in crashes, riders below 25 years of age were represented proportionally within the population. Riders in their thirties comprised 41% of fatalities, with a further 36% accounted for by riders in their fifties. 18 crashes occurred in the Far North Statistical Division (SD), with 2 crashes in both the Northern and North West SDs. Behavioural factors comprised the vast majority of contributing circumstances cited by police, with adverse environmental conditions noted in only 4 cases. Conclusions: Fatal motorcycle crashes were more likely to involve another vehicle and less likely to involve a young rider than non-fatal crashes recorded by the RRRSS. Rider behaviour contributed to the majority of crashes and should be a major focus of research, education and policy development, while other road users’ behaviour and awareness also remains important. With 68% of crashes occurring on major and secondary roads within a 130km radius of Cairns, efforts should focus on this geographic area.

The relationship between clinical outcomes and quality of life for residents of aged care facilities

Objectives It is widely assumed improving care in residential facilities will improve quality of life (QoL), but little research has explored this relationship. The Clinical Care Indicators (CCI) Tool was developed to fill an existing gap in quality assessment within Australian residential aged care facilities and it was used to explore potential links between clinical outcomes and QoL. Design and Setting Clinical outcome and QoL data were collected within four residential facilities from the same aged care provider. Subjects Subjects were 82 residents of four facilities. Outcome Measures Clinical outcomes were measured using the CCI Tool and QoL data was obtained using the Australian WHOQOL‑100. Results Independent t‑test analyses were calculated to compare individual CCIs with each domain of the WHOQOL‑100, while Pearson’s product moment coefficients (r) were calculated between the total number of problem indicators and QoL scores. Significant results suggested poorer clinical outcomes adversely affected QoL. Social and spiritual QoL were particularly affected by clinical outcomes and poorer status in hydration, falls and depression were most strongly associated with lower QoL scores. Poorer clinical status as a whole was also significantly correlated with poorer QoL. Conclusions Hydration, falls and depression were most often associated with poorer resident QoL and as such appear to be key areas for clinical management in residential aged care. However, poor clinical outcomes overall also adversely affected QoL, which suggests maintaining optimum clinical status through high quality nursing care, would not only be important for resident health but also for enhancing general life quality.

Intentions and willingness to use complementary and alternative medicines : what potential patients believe about CAMs

This paper explores the intentions and willingness of a sample of Australian consumers (N = 356) to use Complementary and Alternative Medicine (CAM). Participants considered using CAMs at least once in the next two months and rated the likelihood of certain consequences of CAM use, whether important others would approve, and if barriers would prevent them from using CAMs. People intending to use CAMs (high intenders) were more likely than those low on intention (low intenders) to endorse positive outcomes of CAM use and believe that important others would support their CAM use. High intenders were less likely than low intenders to believe that barriers would prevent use. Low intenders (n = 200) were also asked to consider their response to a free CAM trial. Those willing to accept a trial were more likely than those unwilling to believe that CAMs could improve health and less likely to believe that laziness would prevent use. These results identify important beliefs which may influence people’s decisions to use CAMs.

Multilineage differentiation potential of bone and cartilage cells derived from explant culture

To date, mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) from various tissues have been reported, but the yield and differentiation potential of different tissue-derived MSCs is still not clear. This study was undertaken in an attempt to investigate the multilineage stem cell potential of bone and cartilage explant cultures in comparison with bone marrow derived mesenchymal stem cells (BMSCs). The results showed that the surface antigen expression of tissue-derived cells was consistent with that of mesenchymal stem cells, such as lacking the haematopoietic and common leukocyte markers (CD34, CD45) while expressing markers related to adhesion (CD29, CD166) and stem cells (CD90, CD105). The tissue-derived cells were able to differentiate into osteoblast, chondrocyte and adipocyte lineage pathways when stimulated in the appropriate differentiating conditions. However, compared with BMSCs, tissue-derived cells showed less capacity for multilineage differentiation when the level of differentiation was assessed in monolayer culture by analysing the expression of tissue-specific genes by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and histology. In high density pellet cultures, tissue-derived cells were able to differentiate into chondrocytes, expressing chondrocyte markers such as proteoglycans, type II collagen and aggrecan. Taken together, these results indicate that cells derived from tissue explant cultures reserved certain degree of differentiation properties of MSCs in vitro.

Why is there a gender gap in children presenting for Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder services?

This study addressed why girls are less likely to be referred for mental health services for attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) than boys. Ninety-six parents of children with elevated ADHD symptoms and 140 elementary school teachers read vignettes about children with ADHD. Half of the participants read vignettes with boys' names, and half read the same vignettes but with girls' names. Participants then rated their likeliness to seek or recommend services for the child in each vignette. Parents and teachers were less likely to seek or recommend services for girls than boys with ADHD, but results did not support the hypothesis that this is because girls are less disruptive than boys. Rather, differences in service seeking were explained by the fact that parents and teachers believed that learning assistance is less effective for girls than boys with ADHD.

Exercise and secondary lymphedema : safety, potential benefits, and research issues

Participating in regular physical activity is encouraged following breast cancer (BC) treatment, except for those who have subsequently developed lymphoedema. We designed a randomised controlled trial to investigate the effect of participating in a supervised, mixed-type, moderate-intensity exercise program among women with lymphoedema following breast cancer. Women <76 years who had completed BC treatment at least six months prior and subsequently developed unilateral, upper-limb lymphoedema were randomly allocated to an intervention (n=16) or control (n=16) group. The intervention group (IG) participated in 20 supervised group exercise sessions over 12 weeks, while the control group (CG) was instructed to continue habitual activities. Lymphoedema status was assessed by bioimpedance spectroscopy (impedance ratio between limbs) and perometry (volume difference between limbs). Mean baseline measures were similar for the IG (1.13+0.15 and 337+307ml, respectively) and CG (1.13+0.15 and 377+416ml, respectively) and no changes were observed over time. However, 2 women in the IG no longer had evidence of lymphoedema by study end. Average attendance was over 70% of supervised sessions, and there were no withdrawals. The results indicate that, at worst, exercise does not exacerbate secondary lymphoedema. Women with secondary lymphoedema should be encouraged to be physically active, optimising their physical and psychosocial recovery.

Developing a rural land investment performance index for New Zealand

Agricultural production is one of the major industries in New Zealand and accounts for over 60% of all export trade. The farming industry comprises 70,000 entities ranging in size from small individual run farms to large corporate operations. The reliance of the New Zealand economy to the international rural sector has seen considerable volatility in the rural land markets over the past four decades, with significant shifts in rural land prices based on location, land use and underlying international rural commodity prices. With the increasing attention being paid to the rural sector, especially in relation to food production and bio-fuels, there has been an increasing corporate interest in rural land ownership in relatively low subsidised agricultural producing countries such as New Zealand and Australia. A factor that has limited this participation of institutional investors previously has been a lack of reliable and up-to-date investment performance data for this asset class. This paper is the initial starting phase in the development of a New Zealand South Island rural land investment performance index and covers the period 1990-2007. The research in this paper analyses all rural sales transactions in the South Island and develops a capital return index for rural property based on major rural property land use. Additional work on this index will cover both total return performance and geographic location.

The role of timber plantations in UK Investment portfolios

Although timber plantations and forests are classified as forms of agricultural production, the ownership of this land classification is not limited to rural producers. Timber plantations and forests are now regarded as a long-term investment with both institutional and absentee owners. While the NCREIF property indices have been the benchmarks for the measurement of the performance of the commercial property market in the UK, for many years the IPD timberland index has recently emerged as the U.K. forest and timberland performance indicator. The IPD Forest index incorporates 126 properties over five regions in the U.K. This paper will utilise the IPD Forestry Index to examine the performance of U.K. timber plantations and forests over the period 1981-2004. In particular, issues to be critically assessed include plantation and forest performance analysis, comparative investment analysis, and the role of plantations and forests in investment portfolios, the risk reduction and portfolio benefits of plantations and forests in mixed-asset portfolios and the strategic investment significance of U.K. timberlands.

Clypeotheca, a new skeletal structure in scleractinian corals : a potential stress indicator

Physiological responses to environmental stress are increasingly well studied in scleractinian corals. This work reports a new stress-related skeletal structure we term clypeotheca. Clypeotheca was observed in several livecollected common reef-building coral genera and a two to three kya subfossil specimen from Heron Reef, Great Barrier Reef and consists of an epitheca-like skeletal wall that seals over the surface of parts of the corallum in areas of stress or damage. It appears to form from a coordinated process wherein neighboring polyps and adjoining coenosarc seal themselves off from the surrounding environment as they contract and die. Clypeotheca forms from inward skeletal centripetal growth at the edges of corallites and by the merging of flange-like outgrowths that surround individual spines over the surface of the coenosteum. Microstructurally, the merged flanges are similar to upsidedown dissepiments and true epitheca. Clypeotheca is interpreted primarily as a response to stress that may help protect the colony from invasion of unhealthy tissues by parasites or disease by retracting tissues in areas that have become unhealthy for the polyps. Identification of skeletal responses of corals to environmental stress may enable the frequency of certain types of environmental stress to be documented in past environments. Such data may be important for understanding the nature of reef dynamics through intervals of climate change and for monitoring the effects of possible anthropogenic stress in modern coral reef habitats.