How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

Info-gap theory and robust design of surveillance for invasive species : the case study of Barrow Island

Surveillance for invasive non-indigenous species (NIS) is an integral part of a quarantine system. Estimating the efficiency of a surveillance strategy relies on many uncertain parameters estimated by experts, such as the efficiency of its components in face of the specific NIS, the ability of the NIS to inhabit different environments, and so on. Due to the importance of detecting an invasive NIS within a critical period of time, it is crucial that these uncertainties be accounted for in the design of the surveillance system. We formulate a detection model that takes into account, in addition to structured sampling for incursive NIS, incidental detection by untrained workers. We use info-gap theory for satisficing (not minimizing) the probability of detection, while at the same time maximizing the robustness to uncertainty. We demonstrate the trade-off between robustness to uncertainty, and an increase in the required probability of detection. An empirical example based on the detection of Pheidole megacephala on Barrow Island demonstrates the use of info-gap analysis to select a surveillance strategy.

Evidence that human chlamydia pneumoniae was zoonotically acquired

Zoonotic infections are a growing threat to global health. Chlamydia pneumoniae is a major human pathogen that is widespread in human populations, causing acute respiratory disease, and has been associated with chronic disease. C. pneumoniae was first identified solely in human populations; however, its host range now includes other mammals, marsupials, amphibians, and reptiles. Australian koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) are widely infected with two species of Chlamydia, C. pecorum and C. pneumoniae. Transmission of C. pneumoniae between animals and humans has not been reported; however, two other chlamydial species, C. psittaci and C. abortus, are known zoonotic pathogens. We have sequenced the 1,241,024-bp chromosome and a 7.5-kb cryptic chlamydial plasmid of the koala strain of C. pneumoniae (LPCoLN) using the whole-genome shotgun method. Comparative genomic analysis, including pseudogene and single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) distribution, and phylogenetic analysis of conserved genes and SNPs against the human isolates of C. pneumoniae show that the LPCoLN isolate is basal to human isolates. Thus, we propose based on compelling genomic and phylogenetic evidence that humans were originally infected zoonotically by an animal isolate(s) of C. pneumoniae which adapted to humans primarily through the processes of gene decay and plasmid loss, to the point where the animal reservoir is no longer required for transmission.

A novella of ideas : how interactive new media art can effectively communicate an indigenous philosophical concept

How interactive new media art can effectively communicate an indigenous philosophical concept. The sophistication and complexity of the philosophical concept concerning relationships between land and people and between people, intrinsic to the laws and customs of Australian Indigenous society, has begun to be communicated and accessed beyond the realm of anthropological and ethnological domains of Western scholarship. The exciting scope and rapid development of new media arts presents an innovative means of creating an interactive relationship with the general Australian public, addressing the urgent need for an understanding of Indigenous Australian concepts of relationship to land, and to each other, absent from Western narratives. The study is framed by an Indigenous concept of place, and relationships between land and people and between people; and explores how this concept can be clearly communicated through interactive new media arts. It involves: a creative project, the development of an interactive new media art project, a website work-in-progress titled site\sight\cite; and an exegesis, a Novella of Ideas, on the origins, influences, objectives, and potential of creative practices and processes engaged in the creative project. Research undertaken for the creative project and exegesis extended my creative practice into the use of interdisciplinary arts, expressly for the expression of philosophical concepts, consolidating 23 years experience in Indigenous community arts development. The creative project and exegesis contributes to an existing body of Indigenous work in a range of areas - including education, the arts and humanities - which bridges old and new society in Australia. In this study, old and new society is defined by the time of the initial production of art and foundations of knowledge, in the country of its origins, in Indigenous Australia dating back at least 40,000 years.

The importance of ecological scale for wildlife conservation in naturally fragmented environments: A case study of the Brush-Tailed Rock-Wallaby (Petrogale Penicillata)

Determining the ecologically relevant spatial scales for predicting species occurrences is an important concept when determining species–environment relationships. Therefore species distribution modelling should consider all ecologically relevant spatial scales. While several recent studies have addressed this problem in artificially fragmented landscapes, few studies have researched relevant ecological scales for organisms that also live in naturally fragmented landscapes. This situation is exemplified by the Australian rock-wallabies’ preference for rugged terrain and we addressed the issue of scale using the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata) in eastern Australia. We surveyed for brush-tailed rock-wallabies at 200 sites in southeast Queensland, collecting potentially influential site level and landscape level variables. We applied classification trees at either scale to capture a hierarchy of relationships between the explanatory variables and brush-tailed rock-wallaby presence/absence. Habitat complexity at the site level and geology at the landscape level were the best predictors of where we observed brush-tailed rock-wallabies. Our study showed that the distribution of the species is affected by both site scale and landscape scale factors, reinforcing the need for a multi-scale approach to understanding the relationship between a species and its environment. We demonstrate that careful design of data collection, using coarse scale spatial datasets and finer scale field data, can provide useful information for identifying the ecologically relevant scales for studying species–environment relationships. Our study highlights the need to determine patterns of environmental influence at multiple scales to conserve specialist species such as the brush-tailed rock-wallaby in naturally fragmented landscapes.

Apparatus for monitoring load bearing rehabilitation exercises of a transfemoral amputee fitted with an osseointegrated fixation : a proof-of-concept study

The purpose of this proof-of-concept study was to determine the relevance of direct measurements to monitor the load applied on the osseointegrated fixation of transfemoral amputees during static load bearing exercises. The objectives were (A) to introduce an apparatus using a three-dimensional load transducer, (B) to present a range of derived information relevant to clinicians, (C) to report on the outcomes of a pilot study and (D) to compare the measurements from the transducer with those from the current method using a weighing scale. One transfemoral amputee fitted with an osseointegrated implant was asked to apply 10 kg, 20 kg, 40 kg and 80 kg on the fixation, using self-monitoring with the weighing scale. The loading was directly measured with a portable kinetic system including a six-channel transducer, external interface circuitry and a laptop. As the load prescribed increased from 10 kg to 80 kg, the forces and moments applied on and around the antero-posterior axis increased by 4 fold anteriorly and 14 fold medially, respectively. The forces and moments applied on and around the medio-lateral axis increased by 9 fold laterally and 16 fold from anterior to posterior, respectively. The long axis of the fixation was overloaded and underloaded in 17 % and 83 % of the trials, respectively, by up to ±10 %. This proof-of-concept study presents an apparatus that can be used by clinicians facing the challenge of improving basic knowledge on osseointegration, for the design of equipment for load bearing exercises and for rehabilitation programs.

Using concept mapping to scaffold learning for students who experience learning difficulties in science classes

In order to develop scientific literacy students need the cognitive tools that enable them to read and evaluate science texts. One cognitive tool that has been widely used in science education to aid the development of conceptual understanding is concept mapping. However, it has been found some students experience difficulty with concept map construction. This study reports on the development and evaluation of an instructional sequence that was used to scaffold the concept-mapping process when middle school students who were experiencing difficulty with science learning used concept mapping to summarise a chapter of a science text. In this study individual differences in working memory functioning are suggested as one reason that students experience difficulty with concept map construction. The study was conducted using a design-based research methodology in the school’s learning support centre. The analysis of student work samples collected during the two-year study identified some of the difficulties and benefits associated with the use of scaffolded concept mapping with these students. The observations made during this study highlight the difficulty that some students experience with the use of concept mapping as a means of developing an understanding of science concepts and the amount of instructional support that is required for such understanding to develop. Specifically, the findings of the study support the use of multi-component, multi-modal instructional techniques to facilitate the development of conceptual understanding with students who experience difficulty with science learning. In addition, the important roles of interactive dialogue and metacognition in the development of conceptual understanding are identified.

Raman spectroscopy of gallium based hydrotalcites of formula Mg6Ga2(CO3)(OH)16•4H2O

Insight into the unique structure of hydrotalcites has been obtained using Raman spectroscopy. Gallium containing hydrotalcites of formula Mg4Ga2(CO3)(OH)12•4H2O (2:1 Ga-HT) to Mg8Ga2(CO3)(OH)20•4H2O (4:1 Ga-HT) have been successfully synthesised and characterized by X-ray diffraction and Raman spectroscopy. The d(003) spacing varied from 7.83 Å for the 2:1 hydrotalcite to 8.15 Å for the 3:1 gallium containing hydrotalcite. Raman spectroscopy complemented with selected infrared data has been used to characterise the synthesised gallium containing hydrotalcites of formula Mg6Ga2(CO3)(OH)16•4H2O. Raman bands observed at around 1046, 1048 and 1058 cm-1 were attributed to the symmetric stretching modes of the (CO32-) units. Multiple ν3 CO32- antisymmetric stretching modes are found at around 1346, 1378, 1446, 1464 and 1494 cm-1. The splitting of this mode indicates the carbonate anion is in a perturbed state. Raman bands observed at 710 and 717 cm-1 assigned to the ν4 (CO32-) modes support the concept of multiple carbonate species in the interlayer.

Immunogenicity and protective efficacy of an anti-Streptococcus pyogenes vaccine candidate in multiple animal species

Streptococcus pyogenes, also known as Group A Streptococcus (GAS) has been associated with a range of diseases from the mild pharyngitis and pyoderma to more severe invasive infections such as streptococcal toxic shock. GAS also causes a number of non-suppurative post-infectious diseases such as rheumatic fever, rheumatic heart disease and glomerulonephritis. The large extent of GAS disease burden necessitates the need for a prophylactic vaccine that could target the diverse GAS emm types circulating globally. Anti-GAS vaccine strategies have focused primarily on the GAS M-protein, an extracellular virulence factor anchored to GAS cell wall. As opposed to the hypervariable N-terminal region, the C-terminal portion of the protein is highly conserved among different GAS emm types and is the focus of a leading GAS vaccine candidate, J8-DT/alum. The vaccine candidate J8-DT/alum was shown to be immunogenic in mice, rabbits and the non-human primates, hamadryas baboons. Similar responses to J8-DT/alum were observed after subcutaneous and intramuscular immunization with J8-DT/alum, in mice and in rabbits. Further assessment of parameters that may influence the immunogenicity of J8-DT demonstrated that the immune responses were identical in male and female mice and the use of alum as an adjuvant in the vaccine formulation significantly increased its immunogenicity, resulting in a long-lived serum IgG response. Contrary to the previous findings, the data in this thesis indicates that a primary immunization with J8-DT/alum (50ƒÊg) followed by a single boost is sufficient to generate a robust immune response in mice. As expected, the IgG response to J8- DT/alum was a Th2 type response consisting predominantly of the isotype IgG1 accompanied by lower levels of IgG2a. Intramuscular vaccination of rabbits with J8-DT/alum demonstrated that an increase in the dose of J8-DT/alum up to 500ƒÊg does not have an impact on the serum IgG titers achieved. Similar to the immune response in mice, immunization with J8-DT/alum in baboons also established that a 60ƒÊg dose compared to either 30ƒÊg or 120ƒÊg was sufficient to generate a robust immune response. Interestingly, mucosal infection of naive baboons with a M1 GAS strain did not induce a J8-specific serum IgG response. As J8-DT/alum mediated protection has been previously reported to be due to the J8- specific antibody formed, the efficacy of J8-DT antibodies was determined in vitro and in vivo. In vitro opsonization and in vivo passive transfer confirmed the protective potential of J8-DT antibodies. A reduction in the bacterial burden after challenge with a bioluminescent M49 GAS strain in mice that were passively administered J8-DT IgG established that protection due to J8-DT was mediated by antibodies. The GAS burden in infected mice was monitored using bioluminescent imaging in addition to traditional CFU assays. Bioluminescent GAS strains including the ‘rheumatogenic’ M1 GAS could not be generated due to limitations with transformation of GAS, however, a M49 GAS strain was utilized during BLI. The M49 serotype is traditionally a ‘nephritogenic’ serotype associated with post-streptococcal glomerulonephritis. Anti- J8-DT antibodies now have been shown to be protective against multiple GAS strains such as M49 and M1. This study evaluated the immunogenicity of J8-DT/alum in different species of experimental animals in preparation for phase I human clinical trials and provided the ground work for the development of a rapid non-invasive assay for evaluation of vaccine candidates.