The Explicit Hazard Model – Part 2 : Applications

Hazard and reliability prediction of an engineering asset is one of the significant fields of research in Engineering Asset Health Management (EAHM). In real-life situations where an engineering asset operates under dynamic operational and environmental conditions, the lifetime of an engineering asset can be influenced and/or indicated by different factors that are termed as covariates. The Explicit Hazard Model (EHM) as a covariate-based hazard model is a new approach for hazard prediction which explicitly incorporates both internal and external covariates into one model. EHM is an appropriate model to use in the analysis of lifetime data in presence of both internal and external covariates in the reliability field. This paper presents applications of the methodology which is introduced and illustrated in the theory part of this study. In this paper, the semi-parametric EHM is applied to a case study so as to predict the hazard and reliability of resistance elements on a Resistance Corrosion Sensor Board (RCSB).

Mining trading partners’ preferences for efficient multi-issue bargaining in E‑business

Classical negotiation models are weak in supporting real-world business negotiations because these models often assume that the preference information of each negotiator is made public. Although parametric learning methods have been proposed for acquiring the preference information of negotiation opponents, these methods suffer from the strong assumptions about the specific utility function and negotiation mechanism employed by the opponents. Consequently, it is difficult to apply these learning methods to the heterogeneous negotiation agents participating in e‑marketplaces. This paper illustrates the design, development, and evaluation of a nonparametric negotiation knowledge discovery method which is underpinned by the well-known Bayesian learning paradigm. According to our empirical testing, the novel knowledge discovery method can speed up the negotiation processes while maintaining negotiation effectiveness. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first nonparametric negotiation knowledge discovery method developed and evaluated in the context of multi-issue bargaining over e‑marketplaces.

Temperature enhanced effects of ozone on cardiovascular mortality in 95 large US communities, 1987-2000 - assessment using the NMMAPS data

A few studies examined interactive effects between air pollution and temperature on health outcomes. This study is to examine if temperature modified effects of ozone and cardiovascular mortality in 95 large US cities. A nonparametric and a parametric regression models were separately used to explore interactive effects of temperature and ozone on cardiovascular mortality during May and October, 1987-2000. A Bayesian meta-analysis was used to pool estimates. Both models illustrate that temperature enhanced the ozone effects on mortality in the northern region, but obviously in the southern region. A 10-ppb increment in ozone was associated with 0.41 % (95% posterior interval (PI): -0.19 %, 0.93 %), 0.27 % (95% PI: -0.44 %, 0.87 %) and 1.68 % (95% PI: 0.07 %, 3.26 %) increases in daily cardiovascular mortality corresponding to low, moderate and high levels of temperature, respectively. We concluded that temperature modified effects of ozone, particularly in the northern region.

Behaviour and design of cold-formed steel compression members at elevated temperatures

Cold-formed steel members have been widely used in residential, industrial and commercial buildings as primary load bearing structural elements and non-load bearing structural elements (partitions) due to their advantages such as higher strength to weight ratio over the other structural materials such as hot-rolled steel, timber and concrete. Cold-formed steel members are often made from thin steel sheets and hence they are more susceptible to various buckling modes. Generally short columns are susceptible to local or distortional buckling while long columns to flexural or flexural-torsional buckling. Fire safety design of building structures is an essential requirement as fire events can cause loss of property and lives. Therefore it is essential to understand the fire performance of light gauge cold-formed steel structures under fire conditions. The buckling behaviour of cold-formed steel compression members under fire conditions is not well investigated yet and hence there is a lack of knowledge on the fire performance of cold-formed steel compression members. Current cold-formed steel design standards do not provide adequate design guidelines for the fire design of cold-formed steel compression members. Therefore a research project based on extensive experimental and numerical studies was undertaken at the Queensland University of Technology to investigate the buckling behaviour of light gauge cold-formed steel compression members under simulated fire conditions. As the first phase of this research, a detailed review was undertaken on the mechanical properties of light gauge cold-formed steels at elevated temperatures and the most reliable predictive models for mechanical properties and stress-strain models based on detailed experimental investigations were identified. Their accuracy was verified experimentally by carrying out a series of tensile coupon tests at ambient and elevated temperatures. As the second phase of this research, local buckling behaviour was investigated based on the experimental and numerical investigations at ambient and elevated temperatures. First a series of 91 local buckling tests was carried out at ambient and elevated temperatures on lipped and unlipped channels made of G250-0.95, G550-0.95, G250-1.95 and G450-1.90 cold-formed steels. Suitable finite element models were then developed to simulate the experimental conditions. These models were converted to ideal finite element models to undertake detailed parametric study. Finally all the ultimate load capacity results for local buckling were compared with the available design methods based on AS/NZS 4600, BS 5950 Part 5, Eurocode 3 Part 1.2 and the direct strength method (DSM), and suitable recommendations were made for the fire design of cold-formed steel compression members subject to local buckling. As the third phase of this research, flexural-torsional buckling behaviour was investigated experimentally and numerically. Two series of 39 flexural-torsional buckling tests were undertaken at ambient and elevated temperatures. The first series consisted 2800 mm long columns of G550-0.95, G250-1.95 and G450-1.90 cold-formed steel lipped channel columns while the second series contained 1800 mm long lipped channel columns of the same steel thickness and strength grades. All the experimental tests were simulated using a suitable finite element model, and the same model was used in a detailed parametric study following validation. Based on the comparison of results from the experimental and parametric studies with the available design methods, suitable design recommendations were made. This thesis presents a detailed description of the experimental and numerical studies undertaken on the mechanical properties and the local and flexural-torsional bucking behaviour of cold-formed steel compression member at ambient and elevated temperatures. It also describes the currently available ambient temperature design methods and their accuracy when used for fire design with appropriately reduced mechanical properties at elevated temperatures. Available fire design methods are also included and their accuracy in predicting the ultimate load capacity at elevated temperatures was investigated. This research has shown that the current ambient temperature design methods are capable of predicting the local and flexural-torsional buckling capacities of cold-formed steel compression members at elevated temperatures with the use of reduced mechanical properties. However, the elevated temperature design method in Eurocode 3 Part 1.2 is overly conservative and hence unsuitable, particularly in the case of flexural-torsional buckling at elevated temperatures.

Mathematical models for describing the shape of the in vitro unstretched human crystalline lens

We developed orthogonal least-squares techniques for fitting crystalline lens shapes, and used the bootstrap method to determine uncertainties associated with the estimated vertex radii of curvature and asphericities of five different models. Three existing models were investigated including one that uses two separate conics for the anterior and posterior surfaces, and two whole lens models based on a modulated hyperbolic cosine function and on a generalized conic function. Two new models were proposed including one that uses two interdependent conics and a polynomial based whole lens model. The models were used to describe the in vitro shape for a data set of twenty human lenses with ages 7–82 years. The two-conic-surface model (7 mm zone diameter) and the interdependent surfaces model had significantly lower merit functions than the other three models for the data set, indicating that most likely they can describe human lens shape over a wide age range better than the other models (although with the two-conic-surfaces model being unable to describe the lens equatorial region). Considerable differences were found between some models regarding estimates of radii of curvature and surface asphericities. The hyperbolic cosine model and the new polynomial based whole lens model had the best precision in determining the radii of curvature and surface asphericities across the five considered models. Most models found significant increase in anterior, but not posterior, radius of curvature with age. Most models found a wide scatter of asphericities, but with the asphericities usually being positive and not significantly related to age. As the interdependent surfaces model had lower merit function than three whole lens models, there is further scope to develop an accurate model of the complete shape of human lenses of all ages. The results highlight the continued difficulty in selecting an appropriate model for the crystalline lens shape.

Intelligent prognostics of machinery health utilising suspended condition monitoring data

The ability to forecast machinery failure is vital to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime and safety hazards. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognostic models for forecasting machinery health based on condition data. Although these models have aided the advancement of the discipline, they have made only a limited contribution to developing an effective machinery health prognostic system. The literature review indicates that there is not yet a prognostic model that directly models and fully utilises suspended condition histories (which are very common in practice since organisations rarely allow their assets to run to failure); that effectively integrates population characteristics into prognostics for longer-range prediction in a probabilistic sense; which deduces the non-linear relationship between measured condition data and actual asset health; and which involves minimal assumptions and requirements. This work presents a novel approach to addressing the above-mentioned challenges. The proposed model consists of a feed-forward neural network, the training targets of which are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and a degradation-based failure probability density estimator. The adapted Kaplan-Meier estimator is able to model the actual survival status of individual failed units and estimate the survival probability of individual suspended units. The degradation-based failure probability density estimator, on the other hand, extracts population characteristics and computes conditional reliability from available condition histories instead of from reliability data. The estimated survival probability and the relevant condition histories are respectively presented as “training target” and “training input” to the neural network. The trained network is capable of estimating the future survival curve of a unit when a series of condition indices are inputted. Although the concept proposed may be applied to the prognosis of various machine components, rolling element bearings were chosen as the research object because rolling element bearing failure is one of the foremost causes of machinery breakdowns. Computer simulated and industry case study data were used to compare the prognostic performance of the proposed model and four control models, namely: two feed-forward neural networks with the same training function and structure as the proposed model, but neglected suspended histories; a time series prediction recurrent neural network; and a traditional Weibull distribution model. The results support the assertion that the proposed model performs better than the other four models and that it produces adaptive prediction outputs with useful representation of survival probabilities. This work presents a compelling concept for non-parametric data-driven prognosis, and for utilising available asset condition information more fully and accurately. It demonstrates that machinery health can indeed be forecasted. The proposed prognostic technique, together with ongoing advances in sensors and data-fusion techniques, and increasingly comprehensive databases of asset condition data, holds the promise for increased asset availability, maintenance cost effectiveness, operational safety and – ultimately – organisation competitiveness.

Flexural behaviour and design of cold-formed steel beams with rectangular hollow flanges

Until recently, the hot-rolled steel members have been recognized as the most popular and widely used steel group, but in recent times, the use of cold-formed high strength steel members has rapidly increased. However, the structural behavior of light gauge high strength cold-formed steel members characterized by various buckling modes is not yet fully understood. The current cold-formed steel sections such as C- and Z-sections are commonly used because of their simple forming procedures and easy connections, but they suffer from certain buckling modes. It is therefore important that these buckling modes are either delayed or eliminated to increase the ultimate capacity of these members. This research is therefore aimed at developing a new cold-formed steel beam with two torsionally rigid rectangular hollow flanges and a slender web formed using intermittent screw fastening to enhance the flexural capacity while maintaining a minimum fabrication cost. This thesis describes a detailed investigation into the structural behavior of this new Rectangular Hollow Flange Beam (RHFB), subjected to flexural action The first phase of this research included experimental investigations using thirty full scale lateral buckling tests and twenty two section moment capacity tests using specially designed test rigs to simulate the required loading and support conditions. A detailed description of the experimental methods, RHFB failure modes including local, lateral distortional and lateral torsional buckling modes, and moment capacity results is presented. A comparison of experimental results with the predictions from the current design rules and other design methods is also given. The second phase of this research involved a methodical and comprehensive investigation aimed at widening the scope of finite element analysis to investigate the buckling and ultimate failure behaviours of RHFBs subjected to flexural actions. Accurate finite element models simulating the physical conditions of both lateral buckling and section moment capacity tests were developed. Comparison of experimental and finite element analysis results showed that the buckling and ultimate failure behaviour of RHFBs can be simulated well using appropriate finite element models. Finite element models simulating ideal simply supported boundary conditions and a uniform moment loading were also developed in order to use in a detailed parametric study. The parametric study results were used to review the current design rules and to develop new design formulae for RHFBs subjected to local, lateral distortional and lateral torsional buckling effects. Finite element analysis results indicate that the discontinuity due to screw fastening has a noticeable influence only for members in the intermediate slenderness region. Investigations into different combinations of thicknesses in the flange and web indicate that increasing the flange thickness is more effective than web thickness in enhancing the flexural capacity of RHFBs. The current steel design standards, AS 4100 (1998) and AS/NZS 4600 (1996) are found sufficient to predict the section moment capacity of RHFBs. However, the results indicate that the AS/NZS 4600 is more accurate for slender sections whereas AS 4100 is more accurate for compact sections. The finite element analysis results further indicate that the current design rules given in AS/NZS 4600 is adequate in predicting the member moment capacity of RHFBs subject to lateral torsional buckling effects. However, they were inadequate in predicting the capacities of RHFBs subject to lateral distortional buckling effects. This thesis has therefore developed a new design formula to predict the lateral distortional buckling strength of RHFBs. Overall, this thesis has demonstrated that the innovative RHFB sections can perform well as economically and structurally efficient flexural members. Structural engineers and designers should make use of the new design rules and the validated existing design rules to design the most optimum RHFB sections depending on the type of applications. Intermittent screw fastening method has also been shown to be structurally adequate that also minimises the fabrication cost. Product manufacturers and builders should be able to make use of this in their applications.

Evolutionary optimisation methods with uncertainty for modern multidisciplinary design in aeronautical engineering

One of the new challenges in aeronautics is combining and accounting for multiple disciplines while considering uncertainties or variability in the design parameters or operating conditions. This paper describes a methodology for robust multidisciplinary design optimisation when there is uncertainty in the operating conditions. The methodology, which is based on canonical evolution algorithms, is enhanced by its coupling with an uncertainty analysis technique. The paper illustrates the use of this methodology on two practical test cases related to Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS). These are the ideal candidates due to the multi-physics involved and the variability of missions to be performed. Results obtained from the optimisation show that the method is effective to find useful Pareto non-dominated solutions and demonstrate the use of robust design techniques.

Use of Bayesian geostatistical prediction to estimate local variations in Schistosoma haematobium infection in western Africa

Objective We aimed to predict sub-national spatial variation in numbers of people infected with Schistosoma haematobium, and associated uncertainties, in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, prior to implementation of national control programmes. Methods We used national field survey datasets covering a contiguous area 2,750 × 850 km, from 26,790 school-aged children (5–14 years) in 418 schools. Bayesian geostatistical models were used to predict prevalence of high and low intensity infections and associated 95% credible intervals (CrI). Numbers infected were determined by multiplying predicted prevalence by numbers of school-aged children in 1 km2 pixels covering the study area. Findings Numbers of school-aged children with low-intensity infections were: 433,268 in Burkina Faso, 872,328 in Mali and 580,286 in Niger. Numbers with high-intensity infections were: 416,009 in Burkina Faso, 511,845 in Mali and 254,150 in Niger. 95% CrIs (indicative of uncertainty) were wide; e.g. the mean number of boys aged 10–14 years infected in Mali was 140,200 (95% CrI 6200, 512,100). Conclusion National aggregate estimates for numbers infected mask important local variation, e.g. most S. haematobium infections in Niger occur in the Niger River valley. Prevalence of high-intensity infections was strongly clustered in foci in western and central Mali, north-eastern and northwestern Burkina Faso and the Niger River valley in Niger. Populations in these foci are likely to carry the bulk of the urinary schistosomiasis burden and should receive priority for schistosomiasis control. Uncertainties in predicted prevalence and numbers infected should be acknowledged and taken into consideration by control programme planners.

How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

Info-gap theory and robust design of surveillance for invasive species : the case study of Barrow Island

Surveillance for invasive non-indigenous species (NIS) is an integral part of a quarantine system. Estimating the efficiency of a surveillance strategy relies on many uncertain parameters estimated by experts, such as the efficiency of its components in face of the specific NIS, the ability of the NIS to inhabit different environments, and so on. Due to the importance of detecting an invasive NIS within a critical period of time, it is crucial that these uncertainties be accounted for in the design of the surveillance system. We formulate a detection model that takes into account, in addition to structured sampling for incursive NIS, incidental detection by untrained workers. We use info-gap theory for satisficing (not minimizing) the probability of detection, while at the same time maximizing the robustness to uncertainty. We demonstrate the trade-off between robustness to uncertainty, and an increase in the required probability of detection. An empirical example based on the detection of Pheidole megacephala on Barrow Island demonstrates the use of info-gap analysis to select a surveillance strategy.

Design of Mono-symmetric LiteSteel Beam Floor Joists with Web Openings

The new cold-formed LiteSteel beam (LSB) sections have found increasing popularity in residential, industrial and commercial buildings due to their lightweight and cost-effectiveness. They have the beneficial characteristics of including torsionally rigid rectangular flanges combined with economical fabrication processes. Currently there is significant interest in using LSB sections as flexural members in floor joist systems. When used as floor joists, the LSB sections require holes in the web to provide access for inspection and various services. But there are no design methods that provide accurate predictions of the moment capacities of LSBs with web holes. In this study, the buckling and ultimate strength behaviour of LSB flexural members with web holes was investigated in detail by using a detailed parametric study based on finite element analyses with an aim to develop appropriate design rules and recommendations for the safe design of LSB floor joists. Moment capacity curves were obtained using finite element analyses including all the significant behavioural effects affecting their ultimate member capacity. The parametric study produced the required moment capacity curves of LSB section with a range of web hole combinations and spans. A suitable design method for predicting the ultimate moment capacity of LSB with web holes was finally developed. This paper presents the details of this investigation and the results

Dynamics deflection analysis of nanoelectromechanical switches based on carbon nanotubes

This paper aims to develop an effective numerical simulation technique for the dynamic deflection analysis of nanotubes-based nanoswitches. The nanoswitch is simplified to a continuum structure, and some key material parameters are extracted from typical molecular dynamics (MD). An advanced local meshless formulation is applied to obtain the discretized dynamic equations for the numerical solution. The developed numerical technique is firstly validated by the static deflection analyses of nanoswitches, and then, the fundamental dynamic properties of nanoswitches are analyzed. A parametric comparison with the results in the literature and from experiments shows that the developed modelling approach is accurate, efficient and effective.

Adaptation to global warming by changing internal loads of buildings

Global warming can have a significant impact on the building thermal environment and energy performance. Because greenhouse gas concentrations are still continuing to increase, this warming process will continue and may accelerate. Adaptation to global warming is therefore emerging as one of the key requirements for buildings. This requires all the existing and new buildings not only to perform and operate satisfactorily in the new environment but also to satisfy the environmental performance criteria of sustainability. Through a parametric study using the building simulation technique, this paper investigates the adaptation potential of changing the building internal load densities to the future global warming. Case studies for office buildings in major Australian capital cities are presented. Based on the results of parametric study, possible adaptation strategies are also proposed and evaluated.

Development of lifetime warranty policies and models for estimating costs

In today's fiercely competitive products market, product warranty has started playing an important role. The warranty period offered by the manufacturer/dealer has been progressively increasing since the beginning of the 20th Century. Currently, a large number of products are being sold with long-term warranty policies in the form of extended warranty, warranty for used products, service contracts and lifetime warranty policies. Lifetime warranties are relatively a new concept. The modelling of failures during the warranty period and the costs for such policies are complex since the lifespan in these policies are not defined well and it is often difficult to tell about life measures for the longer period of coverage due to usage pattern/maintenance activities undertaken and uncertainties of costs over the period. This paper focuses on defining lifetime, developing lifetime warranty policies and models for predicting failures and estimating costs for lifetime warranty policies.