Modeling crash outcome probabilities at rural intersections: Application of hierarchical binomial logistic models

It is important to examine the nature of the relationships between roadway, environmental, and traffic factors and motor vehicle crashes, with the aim to improve the collective understanding of causal mechanisms involved in crashes and to better predict their occurrence. Statistical models of motor vehicle crashes are one path of inquiry often used to gain these initial insights. Recent efforts have focused on the estimation of negative binomial and Poisson regression models (and related deviants) due to their relatively good fit to crash data. Of course analysts constantly seek methods that offer greater consistency with the data generating mechanism (motor vehicle crashes in this case), provide better statistical fit, and provide insight into data structure that was previously unavailable. One such opportunity exists with some types of crash data, in particular crash-level data that are collected across roadway segments, intersections, etc. It is argued in this paper that some crash data possess hierarchical structure that has not routinely been exploited. This paper describes the application of binomial multilevel models of crash types using 548 motor vehicle crashes collected from 91 two-lane rural intersections in the state of Georgia. Crash prediction models are estimated for angle, rear-end, and sideswipe (both same direction and opposite direction) crashes. The contributions of the paper are the realization of hierarchical data structure and the application of a theoretically appealing and suitable analysis approach for multilevel data, yielding insights into intersection-related crashes by crash type.

Derivation of motor vehicle tailpipe particle emission factors suitable for modelling urban fleet emissions and air quality assessments

Background, aim, and scope Urban motor vehicle fleets are a major source of particulate matter pollution, especially of ultrafine particles (diameters < 0.1 µm), and exposure to particulate matter has known serious health effects. A considerable body of literature is available on vehicle particle emission factors derived using a wide range of different measurement methods for different particle sizes, conducted in different parts of the world. Therefore the choice as to which are the most suitable particle emission factors to use in transport modelling and health impact assessments presented as a very difficult task. The aim of this study was to derive a comprehensive set of tailpipe particle emission factors for different vehicle and road type combinations, covering the full size range of particles emitted, which are suitable for modelling urban fleet emissions. Materials and methods A large body of data available in the international literature on particle emission factors for motor vehicles derived from measurement studies was compiled and subjected to advanced statistical analysis, to determine the most suitable emission factors to use in modelling urban fleet emissions. Results This analysis resulted in the development of five statistical models which explained 86%, 93%, 87%, 65% and 47% of the variation in published emission factors for particle number, particle volume, PM1, PM2.5 and PM10 respectively. A sixth model for total particle mass was proposed but no significant explanatory variables were identified in the analysis. From the outputs of these statistical models, the most suitable particle emission factors were selected. This selection was based on examination of the statistical robustness of the statistical model outputs, including consideration of conservative average particle emission factors with the lowest standard errors, narrowest 95% confidence intervals and largest sample sizes, and the explanatory model variables, which were Vehicle Type (all particle metrics), Instrumentation (particle number and PM2.5), Road Type (PM10) and Size Range Measured and Speed Limit on the Road (particle volume). Discussion A multiplicity of factors need to be considered in determining emission factors that are suitable for modelling motor vehicle emissions, and this study derived a set of average emission factors suitable for quantifying motor vehicle tailpipe particle emissions in developed countries. Conclusions The comprehensive set of tailpipe particle emission factors presented in this study for different vehicle and road type combinations enable the full size range of particles generated by fleets to be quantified, including ultrafine particles (measured in terms of particle number). These emission factors have particular application for regions which may have a lack of funding to undertake measurements, or insufficient measurement data upon which to derive emission factors for their region. Recommendations and perspectives In urban areas motor vehicles continue to be a major source of particulate matter pollution and of ultrafine particles. It is critical that in order to manage this major pollution source methods are available to quantify the full size range of particles emitted for traffic modelling and health impact assessments.

GVS : A flexible, low-end, 3D visualisation framework for enhancing conceptual groundwater models for community, management and simulations

In this paper we discuss an advanced, 3D groundwater visualisation and animation system that allows scientists, government agencies and community groups to better understand the groundwater processes that effect community planning and decision-making. The system is unique in that it has been designed to optimise community engagement. Although it incorporates a powerful visualisation engine, this open-source system can be freely distributed and boasts a simple user interface allowing individuals to run and investigate the models on their own PCs and gain intimate knowledge of the groundwater systems. The initial version of the Groundwater Visualisation System (GVS v1.0), was developed from a coastal delta setting (Bundaberg, QLD), and then applied to a basalt catchment area (Obi Obi Creek, Maleny, QLD). Several major enhancements have been developed to produce higher quality visualisations, including display of more types of data, support for larger models and improved user interaction. The graphics and animation capabilities have also been enhanced, notably the display of boreholes, depth logs and time-series water level surfaces. The GVS software remains under continual development and improvement

Clone Detection in Repositories of Business Process Models

Business process model repositories capture precious knowledge about an organization or a business domain. In many cases, these repositories contain hundreds or even thousands of models and they represent several man-years of effort. Over time, process model repositories tend to accumulate duplicate fragments, as new process models are created by copying and merging fragments from other models. This calls for methods to detect duplicate fragments in process models that can be refactored as separate subprocesses in order to increase readability and maintainability. This paper presents an indexing structure to support the fast detection of clones in large process model repositories. Experiments show that the algorithm scales to repositories with hundreds of models. The experimental results also show that a significant number of non-trivial clones can be found in process model repositories taken from industrial practice.

Strengthening and formally verifying privacy in identity management systems

In a digital world, users’ Personally Identifiable Information (PII) is normally managed with a system called an Identity Management System (IMS). There are many types of IMSs. There are situations when two or more IMSs need to communicate with each other (such as when a service provider needs to obtain some identity information about a user from a trusted identity provider). There could be interoperability issues when communicating parties use different types of IMS. To facilitate interoperability between different IMSs, an Identity Meta System (IMetS) is normally used. An IMetS can, at least theoretically, join various types of IMSs to make them interoperable and give users the illusion that they are interacting with just one IMS. However, due to the complexity of an IMS, attempting to join various types of IMSs is a technically challenging task, let alone assessing how well an IMetS manages to integrate these IMSs. The first contribution of this thesis is the development of a generic IMS model called the Layered Identity Infrastructure Model (LIIM). Using this model, we develop a set of properties that an ideal IMetS should provide. This idealized form is then used as a benchmark to evaluate existing IMetSs. Different types of IMS provide varying levels of privacy protection support. Unfortunately, as observed by Jøsang et al (2007), there is insufficient privacy protection in many of the existing IMSs. In this thesis, we study and extend a type of privacy enhancing technology known as an Anonymous Credential System (ACS). In particular, we extend the ACS which is built on the cryptographic primitives proposed by Camenisch, Lysyanskaya, and Shoup. We call this system the Camenisch, Lysyanskaya, Shoup - Anonymous Credential System (CLS-ACS). The goal of CLS-ACS is to let users be as anonymous as possible. Unfortunately, CLS-ACS has problems, including (1) the concentration of power to a single entity - known as the Anonymity Revocation Manager (ARM) - who, if malicious, can trivially reveal a user’s PII (resulting in an illegal revocation of the user’s anonymity), and (2) poor performance due to the resource-intensive cryptographic operations required. The second and third contributions of this thesis are the proposal of two protocols that reduce the trust dependencies on the ARM during users’ anonymity revocation. Both protocols distribute trust from the ARM to a set of n referees (n > 1), resulting in a significant reduction of the probability of an anonymity revocation being performed illegally. The first protocol, called the User Centric Anonymity Revocation Protocol (UCARP), allows a user’s anonymity to be revoked in a user-centric manner (that is, the user is aware that his/her anonymity is about to be revoked). The second protocol, called the Anonymity Revocation Protocol with Re-encryption (ARPR), allows a user’s anonymity to be revoked by a service provider in an accountable manner (that is, there is a clear mechanism to determine which entity who can eventually learn - and possibly misuse - the identity of the user). The fourth contribution of this thesis is the proposal of a protocol called the Private Information Escrow bound to Multiple Conditions Protocol (PIEMCP). This protocol is designed to address the performance issue of CLS-ACS by applying the CLS-ACS in a federated single sign-on (FSSO) environment. Our analysis shows that PIEMCP can both reduce the amount of expensive modular exponentiation operations required and lower the risk of illegal revocation of users’ anonymity. Finally, the protocols proposed in this thesis are complex and need to be formally evaluated to ensure that their required security properties are satisfied. In this thesis, we use Coloured Petri nets (CPNs) and its corresponding state space analysis techniques. All of the protocols proposed in this thesis have been formally modeled and verified using these formal techniques. Therefore, the fifth contribution of this thesis is a demonstration of the applicability of CPN and its corresponding analysis techniques in modeling and verifying privacy enhancing protocols. To our knowledge, this is the first time that CPN has been comprehensively applied to model and verify privacy enhancing protocols. From our experience, we also propose several CPN modeling approaches, including complex cryptographic primitives (such as zero-knowledge proof protocol) modeling, attack parameterization, and others. The proposed approaches can be applied to other security protocols, not just privacy enhancing protocols.

Years 2 to 6 students' ability to generalise : models, representations and theory for teaching and learning

Over the last three years, in our Early Algebra Thinking Project, we have been studying Years 3 to 5 students’ ability to generalise in a variety of situations, namely, compensation principles in computation, the balance principle in equivalence and equations, change and inverse change rules with function machines, and pattern rules with growing patterns. In these studies, we have attempted to involve a variety of models and representations and to build students’ abilities to switch between them (in line with the theories of Dreyfus, 1991, and Duval, 1999). The results have shown the negative effect of closure on generalisation in symbolic representations, the predominance of single variance generalisation over covariant generalisation in tabular representations, and the reduced ability to readily identify commonalities and relationships in enactive and iconic representations. This chapter uses the results to explore the interrelation between generalisation and verbal and visual comprehension of context. The studies evidence the importance of understanding and communicating aspects of representational forms which allowed commonalities to be seen across or between representations. Finally the chapter explores the implications of the studies for a theory that describes a growth in integration of models and representations that leads to generalisation.

Seeing the Wood for the Trees: A Critical Evaluation of Methods to Estimate the Parameters of Stochastic Differential Equations

Maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters of stochastic differential equations are consistent and asymptotically efficient, but unfortunately difficult to obtain if a closed-form expression for the transitional probability density function of the process is not available. As a result, a large number of competing estimation procedures have been proposed. This article provides a critical evaluation of the various estimation techniques. Special attention is given to the ease of implementation and comparative performance of the procedures when estimating the parameters of the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross and Ornstein–Uhlenbeck equations respectively.

Exponentiated gradient algorithms for conditional random fields and max-margin Markov Networks

Log-linear and maximum-margin models are two commonly-used methods in supervised machine learning, and are frequently used in structured prediction problems. Efficient learning of parameters in these models is therefore an important problem, and becomes a key factor when learning from very large data sets. This paper describes exponentiated gradient (EG) algorithms for training such models, where EG updates are applied to the convex dual of either the log-linear or max-margin objective function; the dual in both the log-linear and max-margin cases corresponds to minimizing a convex function with simplex constraints. We study both batch and online variants of the algorithm, and provide rates of convergence for both cases. In the max-margin case, O(1/ε) EG updates are required to reach a given accuracy ε in the dual; in contrast, for log-linear models only O(log(1/ε)) updates are required. For both the max-margin and log-linear cases, our bounds suggest that the online EG algorithm requires a factor of n less computation to reach a desired accuracy than the batch EG algorithm, where n is the number of training examples. Our experiments confirm that the online algorithms are much faster than the batch algorithms in practice. We describe how the EG updates factor in a convenient way for structured prediction problems, allowing the algorithms to be efficiently applied to problems such as sequence learning or natural language parsing. We perform extensive evaluation of the algorithms, comparing them to L-BFGS and stochastic gradient descent for log-linear models, and to SVM-Struct for max-margin models. The algorithms are applied to a multi-class problem as well as to a more complex large-scale parsing task. In all these settings, the EG algorithms presented here outperform the other methods.

Predictive compensation for variable network delays and packet losses in networked control systems

Networked control systems (NCSs) offer many advantages over conventional control; however, they also demonstrate challenging problems such as network-induced delay and packet losses. This paper proposes an approach of predictive compensation for simultaneous network-induced delays and packet losses. Different from the majority of existing NCS control methods, the proposed approach addresses co-design of both network and controller. It also alleviates the requirements of precise process models and full understanding of NCS network dynamics. For a series of possible sensor-to-actuator delays, the controller computes a series of corresponding redundant control values. Then, it sends out those control values in a single packet to the actuator. Once receiving the control packet, the actuator measures the actual sensor-to-actuator delay and computes the control signals from the control packet. When packet dropout occurs, the actuator utilizes past control packets to generate an appropriate control signal. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated through examples.

User behaviour modelling in a multi-dimensional environment for personalization and recommendation

Handling information overload online, from the user's point of view is a big challenge, especially when the number of websites is growing rapidly due to growth in e-commerce and other related activities. Personalization based on user needs is the key to solving the problem of information overload. Personalization methods help in identifying relevant information, which may be liked by a user. User profile and object profile are the important elements of a personalization system. When creating user and object profiles, most of the existing methods adopt two-dimensional similarity methods based on vector or matrix models in order to find inter-user and inter-object similarity. Moreover, for recommending similar objects to users, personalization systems use the users-users, items-items and users-items similarity measures. In most cases similarity measures such as Euclidian, Manhattan, cosine and many others based on vector or matrix methods are used to find the similarities. Web logs are high-dimensional datasets, consisting of multiple users, multiple searches with many attributes to each. Two-dimensional data analysis methods may often overlook latent relationships that may exist between users and items. In contrast to other studies, this thesis utilises tensors, the high-dimensional data models, to build user and object profiles and to find the inter-relationships between users-users and users-items. To create an improved personalized Web system, this thesis proposes to build three types of profiles: individual user, group users and object profiles utilising decomposition factors of tensor data models. A hybrid recommendation approach utilising group profiles (forming the basis of a collaborative filtering method) and object profiles (forming the basis of a content-based method) in conjunction with individual user profiles (forming the basis of a model based approach) is proposed for making effective recommendations. A tensor-based clustering method is proposed that utilises the outcomes of popular tensor decomposition techniques such as PARAFAC, Tucker and HOSVD to group similar instances. An individual user profile, showing the user's highest interest, is represented by the top dimension values, extracted from the component matrix obtained after tensor decomposition. A group profile, showing similar users and their highest interest, is built by clustering similar users based on tensor decomposed values. A group profile is represented by the top association rules (containing various unique object combinations) that are derived from the searches made by the users of the cluster. An object profile is created to represent similar objects clustered on the basis of their similarity of features. Depending on the category of a user (known, anonymous or frequent visitor to the website), any of the profiles or their combinations is used for making personalized recommendations. A ranking algorithm is also proposed that utilizes the personalized information to order and rank the recommendations. The proposed methodology is evaluated on data collected from a real life car website. Empirical analysis confirms the effectiveness of recommendations made by the proposed approach over other collaborative filtering and content-based recommendation approaches based on two-dimensional data analysis methods.

Operations research for mining : a classification and literature review

In this paper, we describe the main processes and operations in mining industries and present a comprehensive survey of operations research methodologies that have been applied over the last several decades. The literature review is classified into four main categories: mine design; mine production; mine transportation; and mine evaluation. Mining design models are further separated according to two main mining methods: open-pit and underground. Moreover, mine production models are subcategorised into two groups: ore mining and coal mining. Mine transportation models are further partitioned in accordance with fleet management, truck haulage and train scheduling. Mine evaluation models are further subdivided into four clusters in terms of mining method selection, quality control, financial risks and environmental protection. The main characteristics of four Australian commercial mining software are addressed and compared. This paper bridges the gaps in the literature and motivates researchers to develop more applicable, realistic and comprehensive operations research models and solution techniques that are directly linked with mining industries.

Bribie Island groundwater resources : challenges in development of conceptual and numerical models

Groundwater is a major resource on Bribie Island and its sustainable management is essential to maintain the natural and modified eco-systems, as well as the human population and the integrity of the island as a sand mass. An effective numerical model is essential to enable predictions, and to test various water use and rainfall/climate scenarios. Such a numerical model must, however, be based on a representative conceptual hydrogeological model to allow incorporation of realistic controls and processes. Here we discuss the various hydrogeological models and parameters, and hydrological properties of the materials forming the island. We discuss the hydrological processes and how they can be incorporated into these models, in an integrated manner. Processes include recharge, discharge to wetlands and along the coastline, abstraction, evapotranspiration and potential seawater intrusion. The types and distributions of groundwater bores and monitoring are considered, as are scenarios for groundwater supply abstraction. Different types of numerical models and their applicability are also considered

A comprehensive literature review of the pelvis and the lower extremity digital human models under quasi-static conditions

Finite Element Modeling (FEM) has become a vital tool in the automotive design and development processes. FEM of the human body is a technique capable of estimating parameters that are difficult to measure in experimental studies with the human body segments being modeled as complex and dynamic entities. Several studies have been dedicated to attain close-to-real FEMs of the human body (Pankoke and Siefert 2007; Amann, Huschenbeth et al. 2009; ESI 2010). The aim of this paper is to identify and appraise the state of-the art models of the human body which incorporate detailed pelvis and/or lower extremity models. Six databases and search engines were used to obtain literature, and the search was limited to studies published in English since 2000. The initial search results identified 636 pelvis-related papers, 834 buttocks-related papers, 505 thigh-related papers, 927 femur-related papers, 2039 knee-related papers, 655 shank-related papers, 292 tibia-related papers, 110 fibula-related papers, 644 ankle related papers, and 5660 foot-related papers. A refined search returned 100 pelvis-related papers, 45 buttocks related papers, 65 thigh-related papers, 162 femur-related papers, 195 kneerelated papers, 37 shank-related papers, 80 tibia-related papers, 30 fibula-related papers and 102 ankle-related papers and 246 foot-related papers. The refined literature list was further restricted by appraisal against a modified LOW appraisal criteria. Studies with unclear methodologies, with a focus on populations with pathology or with sport related dynamic motion modeling were excluded. The final literature list included fifteen models and each was assessed against the percentile the model represents, the gender the model was based on, the human body segment/segments included in the model, the sample size used to develop the model, the source of geometric/anthropometric values used to develop the model, the posture the model represents and the finite element solver used for the model. The results of this literature review provide indication of bias in the available models towards 50th percentile male modeling with a notable concentration on the pelvis, femur and buttocks segments.

What is the role of design-led innovation and design-led prototyping in developing novel business models?

Recently, ‘business model’ and ‘business model innovation’ have gained substantial attention in management literature and practice. However, many firms lack the capability to develop a novel business model to capture the value from new technologies. Existing literature on business model innovation highlights the central role of ‘customer value’. Further, it suggests that firms need to experiment with different business models and engage in ‘trail-and-error’ learning when participating in business model innovation. Trial-and error processes and prototyping with tangible artifacts are a fundamental characteristic of design. This conceptual paper explores the role of design-led innovation in facilitating firms to conceive and prototype novel and meaningful business models. It provides a brief review of the conceptual discussion on business model innovation and highlights the opportunities for linking it with the research stream of design-led innovation. We propose design-led business model innovation as a future research area and highlight the role of design-led prototyping and new types of artifacts and prototypes play within it. We present six propositions in order to outline future research avenues.

Porohyperelastic analysis to explore mechanical properties of chondrocytes using numerical modeling and experiments : a finite element study

There are many continuum mechanical models have been developed such as liquid drop models, solid models, and so on for single living cell biomechanics studies. However, these models do not give a fully approach to exhibit a clear understanding of the behaviour of single living cells such as swelling behaviour, drag effect, etc. Hence, the porohyperelastic (PHE) model which can capture those aspects would be a good candidature to study cells behaviour (e.g. chondrocytes in this study). In this research, an FEM model of single chondrocyte cell will be developed by using this PHE model to simulate Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) experimental results with the variation of strain rate. This material model will be compared with viscoelastic model to demonstrate the advantages of PHE model. The results have shown that the maximum value of force applied of PHE model is lower at lower strain rates. This is because the mobile fluid does not have enough time to exude in case of very high strain rate and also due to the lower permeability of the membrane than that of the protoplasm of chondrocyte. This behavior is barely observed in viscoelastic model. Thus, PHE model is the better model for cell biomechanics studies.