Bayesian models for spatio-temporal assessment of disease

This thesis has contributed to the advancement of knowledge in disease modelling by addressing interesting and crucial issues relevant to modelling health data over space and time. The research has led to the increased understanding of spatial scales, temporal scales, and spatial smoothing for modelling diseases, in terms of their methodology and applications. This research is of particular significance to researchers seeking to employ statistical modelling techniques over space and time in various disciplines. A broad class of statistical models are employed to assess what impact of spatial and temporal scales have on simulated and real data.

Temporal Characterization of Ossification of the Crania in Australian Subadults: New standards for Age Estimation using Computed Tomography

After attending this presentation, attendees will gain awareness of the ontogeny of cranial maturation, specifically: (1) the fusion timings of primary ossification centers in the basicranium; and (2) the temporal pattern of closure of the anterior fontanelle, to develop new population-specific age standards for medicolegal death investigation of Australian subadults. This presentation will impact the forensic science community by demonstrating the potential of a contemporary forensic subadult Computed Tomography (CT) database of cranial scans and population data, to recalibrate existing standards for age estimation and quantify growth and development of Australian children. This research welcomes a study design applicable to all countries faced with paucity in skeletal repositories. Accurate assessment of age-at-death of skeletal remains represents a key element in forensic anthropology methodology. In Australian casework, age standards derived from American reference samples are applied in light of scarcity in documented Australian skeletal collections. Currently practitioners rely on antiquated standards, such as the Scheuer and Black1 compilation for age estimation, despite implications of secular trends and population variation. Skeletal maturation standards are population specific and should not be extrapolated from one population to another, while secular changes in skeletal dimensions and accelerated maturation underscore the importance of establishing modern standards to estimate age in modern subadults. Despite CT imaging becoming the gold standard for skeletal analysis in Australia, practitioners caution the application of forensic age standards derived from macroscopic inspection to a CT medium, suggesting a need for revised methodologies. Multi-slice CT scans of subadult crania and cervical vertebrae 1 and 2 were acquired from 350 Australian individuals (males: n=193, females: n=157) aged birth to 12 years. The CT database, projected at 920 individuals upon completion (January 2014), comprises thin-slice DICOM data (resolution: 0.5/0.3mm) of patients scanned since 2010 at major Brisbane Childrens Hospitals. DICOM datasets were subject to manual segmentation, followed by the construction of multi-planar and volume rendering cranial models, for subsequent scoring. The union of primary ossification centers of the occipital bone were scored as open, partially closed or completely closed; while the fontanelles, and vertebrae were scored in accordance with two stages. Transition analysis was applied to elucidate age at transition between union states for each center, and robust age parameters established using Bayesian statistics. In comparison to reported literature, closure of the fontanelles and contiguous sutures in Australian infants occur earlier than reported, with the anterior fontanelle transitioning from open to closed at 16.7±1.1 months. The metopic suture is closed prior to 10 weeks post-partum and completely obliterated by 6 months of age, independent of sex. Utilizing reverse engineering capabilities, an alternate method for infant age estimation based on quantification of fontanelle area and non-linear regression with variance component modeling will be presented. Closure models indicate that the greatest rate of change in anterior fontanelle area occurs prior to 5 months of age. This study complements the work of Scheuer and Black1, providing more specific age intervals for union and temporal maturity of each primary ossification center of the occipital bone. For example, dominant fusion of the sutura intra-occipitalis posterior occurs before 9 months of age, followed by persistence of a hyaline cartilage tongue posterior to the foramen magnum until 2.5 years; with obliteration at 2.9±0.1 years. Recalibrated age parameters for the atlas and axis are presented, with the anterior arch of the atlas appearing at 2.9 months in females and 6.3 months in males; while dentoneural, dentocentral and neurocentral junctions of the axis transitioned from non-union to union at 2.1±0.1 years in females and 3.7±0.1 years in males. These results are an exemplar of significant sexual dimorphism in maturation (p<0.05), with girls exhibiting union earlier than boys, justifying the need for segregated sex standards for age estimation. Studies such as this are imperative for providing updated standards for Australian forensic and pediatric practice and provide an insight into skeletal development of this population. During this presentation, the utility of novel regression models for age estimation of infants will be discussed, with emphasis on three-dimensional modeling capabilities of complex structures such as fontanelles, for the development of new age estimation methods.

Spatial and temporal patterns of locally-acquired dengue transmission in northern Queensland, Australia, 1993-2012

BACKGROUND: Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia since it re-emerged in Queensland in 1992-1993. We explored spatio-temporal characteristics of locally-acquired dengue cases in northern tropical Queensland, Australia during the period 1993-2012. METHODS: Locally-acquired notified cases of dengue were collected for northern tropical Queensland from 1993 to 2012. Descriptive spatial and temporal analyses were conducted using geographic information system tools and geostatistical techniques. RESULTS: 2,398 locally-acquired dengue cases were recorded in northern tropical Queensland during the study period. The areas affected by the dengue cases exhibited spatial and temporal variation over the study period. Notified cases of dengue occurred more frequently in autumn. Mapping of dengue by statistical local areas (census units) reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time and place. Statistically significant differences in dengue incidence rates among males and females (with more cases in females) (χ(2) = 15.17, d.f.  = 1, p<0.01). Differences were observed among age groups, but these were not statistically significant. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of dengue incidence for the four sub-periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.011 to 0.463 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the northern Queensland. CONCLUSIONS: Tropical areas are potential high-risk areas for mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue. This study demonstrated that the locally-acquired dengue cases have exhibited a spatial and temporal variation over the past twenty years in northern tropical Queensland, Australia. Therefore, this study provides an impetus for further investigation of clusters and risk factors in these high-risk areas.

Identification of pre-spike network in patients with mesial temporal lobe epilepsy

Background: Seizures and interictal spikes in mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (MTLE) affect a network of brain regions rather than a single epileptic focus. Simultaneous electroencephalography and functional magnetic resonance imaging (EEG-fMRI) studies have demonstrated a functional network in which hemodynamic changes are time-locked to spikes. However, whether this reflects the propagation of neuronal activity from a focus, or conversely the activation of a network linked to spike generation remains unknown. The functional connectivity (FC) changes prior to spikes may provide information about the connectivity changes that lead to the generation of spikes. We used EEG-fMRI to investigate FC changes immediately prior to the appearance of interictal spikes on EEG in patients with MTLE. Methods/principal findings: Fifteen patients with MTLE underwent continuous EEG-fMRI during rest. Spikes were identified on EEG and three 10 s epochs were defined relative to spike onset: spike (0–10 s), pre-spike (−10 to 0 s), and rest (−20 to −10 s, with no previous spikes in the preceding 45s). Significant spike-related activation in the hippocampus ipsilateral to the seizure focus was found compared to the pre-spike and rest epochs. The peak voxel within the hippocampus ipsilateral to the seizure focus was used as a seed region for FC analysis in the three conditions. A significant change in FC patterns was observed before the appearance of electrographic spikes. Specifically, there was significant loss of coherence between both hippocampi during the pre-spike period compared to spike and rest states. Conclusion/significance: In keeping with previous findings of abnormal inter-hemispheric hippocampal connectivity in MTLE, our findings specifically link reduced connectivity to the period immediately before spikes. This brief decoupling is consistent with a deficit in mutual (inter-hemispheric) hippocampal inhibition that may predispose to spike generation.

Figuras de Espaço na Arquitectura de um Vazio [Figures of space in the architecture of a void]

This text discusses the production of space as performance, space as the architecture of a void in relation to Fernanda Fragateiro's art work 'Caixa para Guardar o Vazio'

Paisagem e Escassez : espaço e experimentação

The text elaborates on the creation of Candlestick Park and Parque de la Pedra Tosca as landscape architectural productions that integrated cultural and ecological processes in its spatialization as a response to scarcity and memory

Temporal trends and bioavailability assessment of heavy metals in the sediments of Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia

Thirteen sites in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia were sampled three times over a period of 7 months and assessed for contamination by a range of heavy metals, primarily As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb and Hg. Fraction analysis, enrichment factors and Principal Components Analysis-Absolute Principal Component Scores (PCA-APCS) analysis were conducted in order to identify the potential bioavailability of these elements of concern and their sources. Hg and Te were identified as the elements of highest enrichment in Deception Bay while marine sediments, shipping and antifouling agents were identified as the sources of the Weak acid Extractable Metals (WE-M), with antifouling agents showing long residence time for mercury contamination. This has significant implications for the future of monitoring and regulation of heavy metal contamination within Deception Bay.

Temporal and spatial distribution and habitat associations of an urban population of New Zealand long-tailed bats (Chalinolobus tuberculatus)

Two ultrasound survey methods were used to determine the presence and activity patterns of New Zealand long-tailed bats (Chalinolobus tuberculatus) in the city of Hamilton. First, 13 monthly surveys conducted at 18 green spaces found C. tuberculatus in only one urban forest reserve, Hammond Bush, where they were found consistently throughout the year. Bat activity was strongly related to temperature. Second, twice-yearly citywide surveys conducted over 2 years determined the distribution and habitat associations of C. tuberculatus. Bats were found only in the southern part of the city and were strongly associated with the Waikato River. Bat activity was negatively correlated with housing and street light density and positively correlated with topographical complexity. In Hamilton, topographical complexity indicates the presence of gullies. Gullies probably provide foraging and roosting opportunities and connect the river to distant forest patches. These results suggest that urban habitats can be useful for bats if gullies can link these to distant habitat fragments.

Temporal and spatial patterns of seed dispersal of Musa acuminata by Cynopterus sphinx

The foraging behavior of greater short-nosed fruit bats (Cynopterus sphinx) on wild banana (Musa acuminata) and subsequent dispersal of seeds were studied in the Tropical Rainforest Conservation Area, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Yunnan province, by direct observation of marked fruits, mist netting, and seed collection. The mean number (± SE) of individual C. sphinx captured by mist net were 2.2 ± 0.33/day and 1.4 ± 0.32/day in the rainy season (September to October) and dry season (November to December), respectively; the difference was not significant. The number of seed pellets expelled was 9.0 ± 1.12/day and 7.2 ± 1.37/day in the rainy and dry seasons respectively; again the difference was not significant. The removal curves for marked fruit were similar for 10 focal trees. Fruits were consumed heavily within two weeks after ripening and all the marked fruit were removed within one month. The difference in seed dispersal was significant between different feeding roosts indicating that patterns of seed dispersal may not be uniform. We found the seeds of M. acuminata can be dispersed by C. sphinx to a distance of about 200 m, and C. sphinx can be considered as an effective seed disperser of M. acuminata.

Spatial and temporal variability in a residual soil profile

It is well understood that that there is variation inherent in all testing techniques, and that all soil and rock materials also contain some degree of natural variability. Less consideration is normally given to variation associated with natural material heterogeneity within a site, or the relative condition of the material at the time of testing. This paper assesses the impact of spatial and temporal variability upon repeated insitu testing of a residual soil and rock profile present within a single residential site over a full calendar year, and thus range of seasonal conditions. From this repeated testing, the magnitude of spatial and temporal variation due to seasonal conditions has demonstrated that, depending on the selected location and moisture content of the subsurface at the time of testing, up to a 35% variation within the test results can be expected. The results have also demonstrated that the completed insitu test technique has a similarly large measurement and inherent variability error and, for the investigated site, up to a 60% variation in normalised results was observed. From these results, it is recommended that the frequency and timing of insitu tests should be considered when deriving geotechnical design parameters from a limited data set.

Weak acid extractable metals in Bramble Bay, Queensland, Australia : temporal behaviour, enrichment and source apportionment

Sediment samples were taken from six sampling sites in Bramble Bay, Queensland, Australia between February and November in 2012. They were analysed for a range of heavy metals including Al, Fe, Mn, Ti, Ce, Th, U, V, Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Cd, Sb, Te, Hg, Tl and Pb. Fraction analysis, enrichment factors and Principal Component Analysis –Absolute Principal Component Scores (PCA-APCS) were carried out in order to assess metal pollution, potential bioavailability and source apportionment. Cr and Ni exceeded the Australian Interim Sediment Quality Guidelines at some sampling sites, while Hg was found to be the most enriched metal. Fraction analysis identified increased weak acid soluble Hg and Cd during the sampling period. Source apportionment via PCA-APCS found four sources of metals pollution, namely, marine sediments, shipping, antifouling coatings and a mixed source. These sources need to be considered in any metal pollution control measure within Bramble Bay.