Optimistic linear programming gives logarithmic regret for irreducible MDPs

We present an algorithm called Optimistic Linear Programming (OLP) for learning to optimize average reward in an irreducible but otherwise unknown Markov decision process (MDP). OLP uses its experience so far to estimate the MDP. It chooses actions by optimistically maximizing estimated future rewards over a set of next-state transition probabilities that are close to the estimates, a computation that corresponds to solving linear programs. We show that the total expected reward obtained by OLP up to time T is within C(P) log T of the reward obtained by the optimal policy, where C(P) is an explicit, MDP-dependent constant. OLP is closely related to an algorithm proposed by Burnetas and Katehakis with four key differences: OLP is simpler, it does not require knowledge of the supports of transition probabilities, the proof of the regret bound is simpler, but our regret bound is a constant factor larger than the regret of their algorithm. OLP is also similar in flavor to an algorithm recently proposed by Auer and Ortner. But OLP is simpler and its regret bound has a better dependence on the size of the MDP.

High-probability regret bounds for bandit online linear optimization

We present a modification of the algorithm of Dani et al. [8] for the online linear optimization problem in the bandit setting, which with high probability has regret at most O ∗ ( √ T) against an adaptive adversary. This improves on the previous algorithm [8] whose regret is bounded in expectation against an oblivious adversary. We obtain the same dependence on the dimension (n 3/2) as that exhibited by Dani et al. The results of this paper rest firmly on those of [8] and the remarkable technique of Auer et al. [2] for obtaining high probability bounds via optimistic estimates. This paper answers an open question: it eliminates the gap between the high-probability bounds obtained in the full-information vs bandit settings.

An economic evaluation of the Safe Motherhood programme in Guangxi, China

Maternal and infant mortality is a global health issue with a significant social and economic impact. Each year, over half a million women worldwide die due to complications related to pregnancy or childbirth, four million infants die in the first 28 days of life, and eight million infants die in the first year. Ninety-nine percent of maternal and infant deaths are in developing countries. Reducing maternal and infant mortality is among the key international development goals. In China, the national maternal mortality ratio and infant mortality rate were reduced greatly in the past two decades, yet a large discrepancy remains between urban and rural areas. To address this problem, a large-scale Safe Motherhood Programme was initiated in 2000. The programme was implemented in Guangxi in 2003. Interventions in the programme included both demand-side and supply side-interventions focusing on increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. Little is known about the effects and economic outcomes of the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, although it has been implemented for seven years. The aim of this research is to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, China. The objectives of this research include: 1. To evaluate whether the changes of health service use and birth outcomes are associated with the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme. 2. To estimate the cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme and quantify the uncertainty surrounding the decision. 3. To assess the expected value of perfect information associated with both the whole decision and individual parameters, and interpret the findings to inform priority setting in further research and policy making in this area. A quasi-experimental study design was used in this research to assess the effectiveness of the programme in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. The study subjects were 51 intervention counties and 30 control counties. Data on the health service use, birth outcomes and socio-economic factors from 2001 to 2007 were collected from the programme database and statistical yearbooks. Based on the profile plots of the data, general linear mixed models were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the programme while controlling for the effects of baseline levels of the response variables, change of socio-economic factors over time and correlations among repeated measurements from the same county. Redundant multicollinear variables were deleted from the mixed model using the results of the multicollinearity diagnoses. For each response variable, the best covariance structure was selected from 15 alternatives according to the fit statistics including Akaike information criterion, Finite-population corrected Akaike information criterion, and Schwarz.s Bayesian information criterion. Residual diagnostics were used to validate the model assumptions. Statistical inferences were made to show the effect of the programme on health service use and birth outcomes. A decision analytic model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the programme, quantify the decision uncertainty, and estimate the expected value of perfect information associated with the decision. The model was used to describe the transitions between health states for women and infants and reflect the change of both costs and health benefits associated with implementing the programme. Result gained from the mixed models and other relevant evidence identified were synthesised appropriately to inform the input parameters of the model. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of the programme were calculated for the two groups of intervention counties over time. Uncertainty surrounding the parameters was dealt with using probabilistic sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty relating to model assumptions was handled using scenario analysis. Finally the expected value of perfect information for both the whole model and individual parameters in the model were estimated to inform priority setting in further research in this area.The annual change rates of the antenatal care rate and the institutionalised delivery rate were improved significantly in the intervention counties after the programme was implemented. Significant improvements were also found in the annual change rates of the maternal mortality ratio, the infant mortality rate, the incidence rate of neonatal tetanus and the mortality rate of neonatal tetanus in the intervention counties after the implementation of the programme. The annual change rate of the neonatal mortality rate was also improved, although the improvement was only close to statistical significance. The influences of the socio-economic factors on the health service use indicators and birth outcomes were identified. The rural income per capita had a significant positive impact on the health service use indicators, and a significant negative impact on the birth outcomes. The number of beds in healthcare institutions per 1,000 population and the number of rural telephone subscribers per 1,000 were found to be positively significantly related to the institutionalised delivery rate. The length of highway per square kilometre negatively influenced the maternal mortality ratio. The percentage of employed persons in the primary industry had a significant negative impact on the institutionalised delivery rate, and a significant positive impact on the infant mortality rate and neonatal mortality rate. The incremental costs of implementing the programme over the existing practice were US $11.1 million from the societal perspective, and US $13.8 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. Overall, 28,711 life years were generated by the programme, producing an overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US $386 from the societal perspective, and US $480 from the perspective of the Ministry of Health, both of which were below the threshold willingness-to-pay ratio of US $675. The expected net monetary benefit generated by the programme was US $8.3 million from the societal perspective, and US $5.5 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The overall probability that the programme was cost-effective was 0.93 and 0.89 from the two perspectives, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the programme was insensitive to the different estimates of the three parameters relating to the model assumptions. Further research could be conducted to reduce the uncertainty surrounding the decision, in which the upper limit of investment was US $0.6 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.3 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. It is also worthwhile to get a more precise estimate of the improvement of infant mortality rate. The population expected value of perfect information for individual parameters associated with this parameter was US $0.99 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.14 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The findings from this study have shown that the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme were both effective and cost-effective in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes in rural areas of Guangxi, China. Therefore, the programme represents a good public health investment and should be adopted and further expanded to an even broader area if possible. This research provides economic evidence to inform efficient decision making in improving maternal and infant health in developing countries.

Linear models for endocytic transformations from live cell imaging

Endocytosis is the process by which cells internalise molecules including nutrient proteins from the extracellular media. In one form, macropinocytosis, the membrane at the cell surface ruffles and folds over to give rise to an internalised vesicle. Negatively charged phospholipids within the membrane called phosphoinositides then undergo a series of transformations that are critical for the correct trafficking of the vesicle within the cell, and which are often pirated by pathogens such as Salmonella. Advanced fluorescent video microscopy imaging now allows the detailed observation and quantification of these events in live cells over time. Here we use these observations as a basis for building differential equation models of the transformations. An initial investigation of these interactions was modelled with reaction rates proportional to the sum of the concentrations of the individual constituents. A first order linear system for the concentrations results. The structure of the system enables analytical expressions to be obtained and the problem becomes one of determining the reaction rates which generate the observed data plots. We present results with reaction rates which capture the general behaviour of the reactions so that we now have a complete mathematical model of phosphoinositide transformations that fits the experimental observations. Some excellent fits are obtained with modulated exponential functions; however, these are not solutions of the linear system. The question arises as to how the model may be modified to obtain a system whose solution provides a more accurate fit.

Visual voice activity detection using frontal versus profile views

Visual activity detection of lip movements can be used to overcome the poor performance of voice activity detection based solely in the audio domain, particularly in noisy acoustic conditions. However, most of the research conducted in visual voice activity detection (VVAD) has neglected addressing variabilities in the visual domain such as viewpoint variation. In this paper we investigate the effectiveness of the visual information from the speaker’s frontal and profile views (i.e left and right side views) for the task of VVAD. As far as we are aware, our work constitutes the first real attempt to study this problem. We describe our visual front end approach and the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) based VVAD framework, and report the experimental results using the freely available CUAVE database. The experimental results show that VVAD is indeed possible from profile views and we give a quantitative comparison of VVAD based on frontal and profile views The results presented are useful in the development of multi-modal Human Machine Interaction (HMI) using a single camera, where the speaker’s face may not always be frontal.

Compensation of unmodeled aircraft dynamics in airborne inspection of linear infrastructure assets

Fixed-wing aircraft equipped with downward pointing cameras and/or LiDAR can be used for inspecting approximately piecewise linear assets such as oil-gas pipelines, roads and power-lines. Automatic control of such aircraft is important from a productivity and safety point of view (long periods of precision manual flight at low-altitude is not considered reasonable from a safety perspective). This paper investigates the effect of any unwanted coupling between guidance and autopilot loops (typically caused by unmodeled delays in the aircraft’s response), and the specific impact of any unwanted dynamics on the performance of aircraft undertaking inspection of piecewise linear corridor assets (such as powerlines). Simulation studies and experimental flight tests are used to demonstrate the benefits of a simple compensator in mitigating the unwanted lateral oscillatory behaviour (or coupling) that is caused by unmodeled time constants in the aircraft dynamics.

Vision based control for fixed wing UAVs inspecting locally linear infrastructure using skid-to-turn maneuvers

The following paper proposes a novel application of Skid-to-Turn maneuvers for fixed wing Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) inspecting locally linear infrastructure. Fixed wing UAVs, following the design of manned aircraft, traditionally employ Bank-to-Turn maneuvers to change heading and thus direction of travel. Commonly overlooked is the effect these maneuvers have on downward facing body fixed sensors, which as a result of bank, point away from the feature during turns. By adopting Skid-to-Turn maneuvers, the aircraft is able change heading whilst maintaining wings level flight, thus allowing body fixed sensors to maintain a downward facing orientation. Eliminating roll also helps to improve data quality, as sensors are no longer subjected to the swinging motion induced as they pivot about an axis perpendicular to their line of sight. Traditional tracking controllers that apply an indirect approach of capturing ground based data by flying directly overhead can also see the feature off center due to steady state pitch and roll required to stay on course. An Image Based Visual Servo controller is developed to address this issue, allowing features to be directly tracked within the image plane. Performance of the proposed controller is tested against that of a Bank-to-Turn tracking controller driven by GPS derived cross track error in a simulation environment developed to simulate the field of view of a body fixed camera.

Distribution feeder voltage support and power factor control by distributed multiple inverters

The potential of distributed reactive power control to improve the voltage profile of radial distribution feeders has been reported in literature by few authors. However, the multiple inverters injecting or absorbing reactive power across a distribution feeder may introduce control interactions and/or voltage instability. Such controller interactions can be alleviated if the inverters are allowed to operate on voltage droop. First, the paper demonstrates that a linear shallow droop line can maintain the steady state voltage profile close to reference, up to a certain level of loading. Then, impacts of the shallow droop line control on line losses and line power factors are examined. Finally, a piecewise linear droop line which can achieve reduced line losses and close to unity power factor at the feeder source is proposed.

Thermal profile of a near-adiabatic compression process in a cylindrical tube and establishment of critical control elements for repeatable process control

The compressed gas industry and government agencies worldwide utilize "adiabatic compression" testing for qualifying high-pressure valves, regulators, and other related flow control equipment for gaseous oxygen service. This test methodology is known by various terms including adiabatic compression testing, gaseous fluid impact testing, pneumatic impact testing, and BAM testing as the most common terms. The test methodology will be described in greater detail throughout this document but in summary it consists of pressurizing a test article (valve, regulator, etc.) with gaseous oxygen within 15 to 20 milliseconds (ms). Because the driven gas1 and the driving gas2 are rapidly compressed to the final test pressure at the inlet of the test article, they are rapidly heated by the sudden increase in pressure to sufficient temperatures (thermal energies) to sometimes result in ignition of the nonmetallic materials (seals and seats) used within the test article. In general, the more rapid the compression process the more "adiabatic" the pressure surge is presumed to be and the more like an isentropic process the pressure surge has been argued to simulate. Generally speaking, adiabatic compression is widely considered the most efficient ignition mechanism for directly kindling a nonmetallic material in gaseous oxygen and has been implicated in many fire investigations. Because of the ease of ignition of many nonmetallic materials by this heating mechanism, many industry standards prescribe this testing. However, the results between various laboratories conducting the testing have not always been consistent. Research into the test method indicated that the thermal profile achieved (i.e., temperature/time history of the gas) during adiabatic compression testing as required by the prevailing industry standards has not been fully modeled or empirically verified, although attempts have been made. This research evaluated the following questions: 1) Can the rapid compression process required by the industry standards be thermodynamically and fluid dynamically modeled so that predictions of the thermal profiles be made, 2) Can the thermal profiles produced by the rapid compression process be measured in order to validate the thermodynamic and fluid dynamic models; and, estimate the severity of the test, and, 3) Can controlling parameters be recommended so that new guidelines may be established for the industry standards to resolve inconsistencies between various test laboratories conducting tests according to the present standards?

Active regulation of the epidermal calcium profile

A distinct calcium profile is strongly implicated in regulating the multi-layered structure of the epidermis. However, the mechanisms that govern the regulation of this calcium profile are currently unclear. It clearly depends on the relatively impermeable barrier of the stratum corneum (passive regulation) but may also depend on calcium exchanges between keratinocytes and extracellular fluid (active regulation). Using a mathematical model that treats the viable sublayers of unwounded human and murine epidermis as porous media and assumes that their calcium profiles are passively regulated, we demonstrate that these profiles are also actively regulated. To obtain this result, we found that diffusion governs extracellular calcium motion in the viable epidermis and hence intracellular calcium is the main source of the epidermal calcium profile. Then, by comparison with experimental calcium profiles and combination with a hypothesised cell velocity distribution in the viable epidermis, we found that the net influx of calcium ions into keratinocytes from extracellular fluid may be constant and positive throughout the stratum basale and stratum spinosum, and that there is a net outflux of these ions in the stratum granulosum. Hence the calcium exchange between keratinocytes and extracellular fluid differs distinctly between the stratum granulosum and the underlying sublayers, and these differences actively regulate the epidermal calcium profile. Our results also indicate that plasma membrane dysfunction may be an early event during keratinocyte disintegration in the stratum granulosum.

Renewal decision support for linear assets

Linear (or continuous) assets are engineering infrastructure that usually spans long distances and can be divided into different segments, all of which perform the same function but may be subject to different loads and environmental factors. Typical linear assets include railway lines, roads, pipelines and cables. How and when to renew such assets are critical decisions for asset owners as they normally involves significant capital investment. Through investigating the characteristics of linear asset renewal decisions and identifying the critical requirements that are associated with renewal decisions, we present a multi-criteria decision support method to help optimise renewal decisions. A case study that concerns renewal of an economiser's tubing system is a coal-fired power station is adopted to demonstrate the application of this method. Although the paper concerns a particular linear asset decision type, the approach has broad applicability for linear asset management.