Outbreak detection algorithms for seasonal disease data : a case study using Ross River virus disease

Background Detection of outbreaks is an important part of disease surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed for detecting outbreaks, few have been specifically assessed against diseases that have distinct seasonal incidence patterns, such as those caused by vector-borne pathogens. Methods We applied five previously reported outbreak detection algorithms to Ross River virus (RRV) disease data (1991-2007) for the four local government areas (LGAs) of Brisbane, Emerald, Redland and Townsville in Queensland, Australia. The methods used were the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) C1, C2 and C3 methods, negative binomial cusum (NBC), historical limits method (HLM), Poisson outbreak detection (POD) method and the purely temporal SaTScan analysis. Seasonally-adjusted variants of the NBC and SaTScan methods were developed. Some of the algorithms were applied using a range of parameter values, resulting in 17 variants of the five algorithms. Results The 9,188 RRV disease notifications that occurred in the four selected regions over the study period showed marked seasonality, which adversely affected the performance of some of the outbreak detection algorithms. Most of the methods examined were able to detect the same major events. The exception was the seasonally-adjusted NBC methods that detected an excess of short signals. The NBC, POD and temporal SaTScan algorithms were the only methods that consistently had high true positive rates and low false positive and false negative rates across the four study areas. The timeliness of outbreak signals generated by each method was also compared but there was no consistency across outbreaks and LGAs. Conclusions This study has highlighted several issues associated with applying outbreak detection algorithms to seasonal disease data. In lieu of a true gold standard, a quantitative comparison is difficult and caution should be taken when interpreting the true positives, false positives, sensitivity and specificity.

Perfect start to a river cruise

A travel article about Amsterdam. BY COINCIDENCE, I flew to Amsterdam a week after I'd read Ian McEwan's novel of the same name. Amsterdam is a modern take on the theme of duelling and, in many ways, he couldn't have chosen a more appropriate place for his title. This is a city that duels with itself. I flew in at dawn, traditionally the moment to test your abilities at 10 paces. The countryside below was dark but blocks of orange light pulsed in the fields...

Application of XRF and correspondence analysis to provenance studies of coastal and inland archaeological pottery from the Mngeni river area, South Africa

XRF spectrometry was applied to provenance studies of Iron Age pottery specimens that originated from the Mngeni river area in South Africa. Ten transition metals (Sc to Zn) mere determined in 107 potsherds, excavated from four different sites. The data were subjected to a computerized mathematical technique (correspondence analysis), which was used to group the samples according to the similarity of their elemental distributions. The groupings were interpreted in terms of social or cultural interaction between the sites. (C) 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The use of correspondence analysis to compare major and trace elements for provenance studies of iron-age pottery from the Mngeni river area, South Africa

Provenance studies of iron-age pottery specimens originating from the Mngeni river area in South Africa was carried out by applying XRF spectrometry. A total of sixteen major and trace elements were analysed in a batch of 107 potsherds, excavated from four different archaeological sites in the aforementioned area. A multivariate statistical programme Correspondence Analysis was used in this study to obtain the relevant clustering patterns according to the similarity of the elemental distributions. Differences and similarities in the clusters obtained for the majors and trace elements are discussed.

Ross River virus disease activity associated with naturally occurring non-tidal flood events in Australia : A systematic review

Ross River virus (RRV) disease is the most common and widespread mosquito-borne disease in Australia, resulting in considerable health and economic cost to communities. While naturally occurring non-tidal flood events may enhance mosquito abundance, little is known about the impact of such events on RRV transmission. This paper critically reviews the existing evidence for an association between naturally occurring non-tidal flood events and RRV transmission. A systematic literature search was conducted on RRV transmission related to flooding and inundation from rain and riverine overflow. Overall, the evidence to support a positive association between flooding and RRV outbreaks is largely circumstantial, with the literature mostly reporting only coincidental occurrence between the two. However, for the Murray River, river flow and height (surrogates of flooding) were positively and significantly associated with RRV transmission. The association between non-tidal flooding and RRV transmission has not been studied comprehensively. More frequent flood events arising from climate change may result in increased outbreaks of RRV disease. Understanding the link between flood events and RRV transmission is necessary if resources for mosquito spraying and public health warnings are to be utilized more effectively and efficiently.

High-temperature, low-H₂O silicic magmas of the Yellowstone Hotspot: an experimental study of Rhyolite from the Bruneau-Jarbidge eruptive center, Central Snake River Plain, USA

The phase relations have been investigated experimentally at 200 and 500 MPa as a function of water activity for one of the least evolved (Indian Batt Rhyolite) and of a more evolved rhyolite composition (Cougar Point Tuff XV) from the 12·8-8·1 Ma Bruneau-Jarbidge eruptive center of the Yellowstone hotspot. Particular priority was given to accurate determination of the water content of the quenched glasses using infrared spectroscopic techniques. Comparison of the composition of natural and experimentally synthesized phases confirms that high temperatures (>900°C) and extremely low melt water contents (<1·5 wt % H₂O) are required to reproduce the natural mineral assemblages. In melts containing 0·5-1·5 wt % H₂O, the liquidus phase is clinopyroxene (excluding Fe-Ti oxides, which are strongly dependent on fO₂), and the liquidus temperature of the more evolved Cougar Point Tuff sample (BJR; 940-1000°C) is at least 30°C lower than that of the Indian Batt Rhyolite lava sample (IBR2; 970-1030°C). For the composition BJR, the comparison of the compositions of the natural and experimental glasses indicates a pre-eruptive temperature of at least 900°C. The composition of clinopyroxene and pigeonite pairs can be reproduced only for water contents below 1·5 wt % H₂O at 900°C, or lower water contents if the temperature is higher. For the composition IBR2, a minimum temperature of 920°C is necessary to reproduce the main phases at 200 and 500 MPa. At 200 MPa, the pre-eruptive water content of the melt is constrained in the range 0·7-1·3 wt % at 950°C and 0·3-1·0 wt % at 1000°C. At 500 MPa, the pre-eruptive temperatures are slightly higher (by 30-50°C) for the same ranges of water concentration. The experimental results are used to explore possible proxies to constrain the depth of magma storage. The crystallization sequence of tectosilicates is strongly dependent on pressure between 200 and 500 MPa. In addition, the normative Qtz-Ab-Or contents of glasses quenched from melts coexisting with quartz, sanidine and plagioclase depend on pressure and melt water content, assuming that the normative Qtz and Ab/Or content of such melts is mainly dependent on pressure and water activity, respectively. The combination of results from the phase equilibria and from the composition of glasses indicates that the depth of magma storage for the IBR2 and BJR compositions may be in the range 300-400 MPa (13 km) and 200-300 MPa (10 km), respectively.

Pyroxene thermometry of rhyolite lavas of the Bruneau–Jarbidge eruptive center, Central Snake River Plain

The Bruneau–Jarbidge eruptive center of the central Snake River Plain in southern Idaho, USA produced multiple rhyolite lava flows with volumes of <10 km³ to 200 km³ each from ~11.2 to 8.1 Ma, most of which follow its climactic phase of large-volume explosive volcanism, represented by the Cougar Point Tuff, from 12.7 to 10.5 Ma. These lavas represent the waning stages of silicic volcanism at a major eruptive center of the Yellowstone hotspot track. Here we provide pyroxene compositions and thermometry results from several lavas that demonstrate that the demise of the silicic volcanic system was characterized by sustained, high pre-eruptive magma temperatures (mostly ≥950 °C) prior to the onset of exclusively basaltic volcanism at the eruptive center. Pyroxenes display a variety of textures in single samples, including solitary euhedral crystals as well as glomerocrysts, crystal clots and annealed microgranular inclusions of pyroxene ±magnetite± plagioclase. Pigeonite and augite crystals are unzoned, and there are no detectable differences in major and minor element compositions according to textural variety — mineral compositions in the microgranular inclusions and crystal clots are identical to those of phenocrysts in the host lavas. In contrast to members of the preceding Cougar Point Tuff that host polymodal glass and mineral populations, pyroxene compositions in each of the lavas are characterized by single rather than multiple discrete compositional modes. Collectively, the lavas reproduce and extend the range of Fe–Mg pyroxene compositional modes observed in the Cougar Point Tuff to more Mg-rich varieties. The compositionally homogeneous populations of pyroxene in each of the lavas, as well as the lack of core-to-rim zonation in individual crystals suggest that individual eruptions each were fed by compositionally homogeneous magma reservoirs, and similarities with the Cougar Point Tuff suggest consanguinity of such reservoirs to those that supplied the polymodal Cougar Point Tuff. Pyroxene thermometry results obtained using QUILF equilibria yield pre-eruptive magma temperatures of 905 to 980 °C, and individual modes consistently record higher Ca content and higher temperatures than pyroxenes with equivalent Fe–Mg ratios in the preceding Cougar Point Tuff. As is the case with the Cougar Point Tuff, evidence for up-temperature zonation within single crystals that would be consistent with recycling of sub- or near-solidus material from antecedent magma reservoirs by rapid reheating is extremely rare. Also, the absence of intra-crystal zonation, particularly at crystal rims, is not easily reconciled with cannibalization of caldera fill that subsided into pre-eruptive reservoirs. The textural, compositional and thermometric results rather are consistent with minor re-equilibration to higher temperatures of the unerupted crystalline residue from the explosive phase of volcanism, or perhaps with newly generated magmas from source materials very similar to those for the Cougar Point Tuff. Collectively, the data suggest that most of the pyroxene compositional diversity that is represented by the tuffs and lavas was produced early in the history of the eruptive center and that compositions across this range were preserved or duplicated through much of its lifetime. Mineral compositions and thermometry of the multiple lavas suggest that unerupted magmas residual to the explosive phase of volcanism may have been stored at sustained, high temperatures subsequent to the explosive phase of volcanism. If so, such persistent high temperatures and large eruptive magma volumes likewise require an abundant and persistent supply of basalt magmas to the lower and/or mid-crust, consistent with the tectonic setting of a continental hotspot.

Characterization of epitopes for virus-neutralizing monoclonal antibodies to Ross River virus E2 using phage-displayed random peptide libraries

Ross River virus (RRV) is the predominant cause of epidemic polyarthritis in Australia, yet the antigenic determinants are not well defined. We aimed to characterize epitope(s) on RRV-E2 for a panel of monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) that recognize overlapping conformational epitopes on the E2 envelope protein of RRV and that neutralize virus infection of cells in vitro. Phage-displayed random peptide libraries were probed with the MAbs T1E7, NB3C4, and T10C9 using solution-phase and solid-phase biopanning methods. The peptides VSIFPPA and KTAISPT were selected 15 and 6 times, respectively, by all three of the MAbs using solution-phase biopanning. The peptide LRLPPAP was selected 8 times by NB3C4 using solid-phase biopanning; this peptide shares a trio of amino acids with the peptide VSIFPPA. Phage that expressed the peptides VSIFPPA and LRLPPAP were reactive with T1E7 and/or NB3C4, and phage that expressed the peptides VSIFPPA, LRLPPAP, and KTAISPT partially inhibited the reactivity of T1E7 with RRV. The selected peptides resemble regions of RRV-E2 adjacent to sites mutated in neutralization escape variants of RRV derived by culture in the presence of these MAbs (E2 210-219 and 238-245) and an additional region of E2 172-182. Together these sites represent a conformational epitope of E2 that is informative of cellular contact sites on RRV.

Multifractal analyses of daily rainfall time series in Pearl River basin of China

The multifractal properties of daily rainfall time series at the stations in Pearl River basin of China over periods of up to 45 years are examined using the universal multifractal approach based on the multiplicative cascade model and the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). The results from these two kinds of multifractal analyses show that the daily rainfall time series in this basin have multifractal behavior in two different time scale ranges. It is found that the empirical multifractal moment function K(q)K(q) of the daily rainfall time series can be fitted very well by the universal multifractal model (UMM). The estimated values of the conservation parameter HH from UMM for these daily rainfall data are close to zero indicating that they correspond to conserved fields. After removing the seasonal trend in the rainfall data, the estimated values of the exponent h(2)h(2) from MF-DFA indicate that the daily rainfall time series in Pearl River basin exhibit no long-term correlations. It is also found that K(2)K(2) and elevation series are negatively correlated. It shows a relationship between topography and rainfall variability.

Temporal trend of pesticide concentrations in the Chikugo River (Japan) with changes in environmental regulation and field infrastructure

Contamination of pesticides, which are applied to rice paddy fields, in river water has been a major problem in Japan for decades. A prolonged water holding period after pesticide application in paddy fields is expected to reduce the concentration of rice pesticides in river water. Therefore, a long monitoring campaign was conducted from 2004 to 2010 to measure the concentrations of pesticides in water samples collected from several points along the Chikugo River (Japan) including tributaries and the main stream to see if there was any reduction in the level of pesticide contamination after the extension of the water holding period (from 3–4 days to 7 days) was introduced in 2007 by the new water management regulation. No significant difference (p > 0.05) was found in pesticide concentrations between the periods before and after 2007 in all monitoring points, except in one tributary where the pesticide concentrations after 2007 were even higher than that of the previous period. A detailed study in one of the tributaries also revealed that the renovated infrastructure did not reduce the pesticide concentrations in the drainage canals. Neither the introduction of the new regulation nor the improved infrastructure had any significant effect on reducing the contamination of pesticides in water of the Chikugo River. It is probably because most farmers did not properly implement the new requirement of holding paddy water within the field for 7 days after the application of pesticides. Only tightening the regulation would not be sufficient and more actions should be taken to enforce/provide extension support for the new water management regulation in order to reduce the level of residual pesticides in river water in Japan.