Modelling the impact of traffic incidents on travel time reliability

Traffic incidents are recognised as one of the key sources of non-recurrent congestion that often leads to reduction in travel time reliability (TTR), a key metric of roadway performance. A method is proposed here to quantify the impacts of traffic incidents on TTR on freeways. The method uses historical data to establish recurrent speed profiles and identifies non-recurrent congestion based on their negative impacts on speeds. The locations and times of incidents are used to identify incidents among non-recurrent congestion events. Buffer time is employed to measure TTR. Extra buffer time is defined as the extra delay caused by traffic incidents. This reliability measure indicates how much extra travel time is required by travellers to arrive at their destination on time with 95% certainty in the case of an incident, over and above the travel time that would have been required under recurrent conditions. An extra buffer time index (EBTI) is defined as the ratio of extra buffer time to recurrent travel time, with zero being the best case (no delay). A Tobit model is used to identify and quantify factors that affect EBTI using a selected freeway segment in the Southeast Queensland, Australia network. Both fixed and random parameter Tobit specifications are tested. The estimation results reveal that models with random parameters offer a superior statistical fit for all types of incidents, suggesting the presence of unobserved heterogeneity across segments. What factors influence EBTI depends on the type of incident. In addition, changes in TTR as a result of traffic incidents are related to the characteristics of the incidents (multiple vehicles involved, incident duration, major incidents, etc.) and traffic characteristics.

Teaching for Learning, Living and Serving

I offer four eclectic maxims for schooling. They do not represent a cohesive philosophy of schooling or education, but they are a sampling of my views which I hope reflect and honour the great life’s work of Phil Hughes.

DFT study of electronic and optical properties of anatase titanium dioxide tuned by nitrogen and lithium co-doping

The electronic and optical properties of anatase titanium dioxide (TiO2), co-doped by nitrogen (N) and lithium (Li), have been investigated by density functional theory plus Hubbard correction term U, namely DFT+U. It is found that Li-dopants can effectively balance the net charges brought by N-dopants and shift the local state to the top of valence band. Depending on the distribution of dopants, the adsorption edges of TiO2 may be red- or blue-shifted, being consistent with recent experimental observations.

Australian Property Institute Inc, Submission to the Productivity Commission on Intellectual Property Arrangements – Issues Paper

This submission responds to the document Intellectual Property Arrangements Issues Paper (Issues Paper) released by the Productivity Commission in October 2015 for public consultation and input by 30 November 2015. The API is grateful for the extension of time granted by the Commission to complete and lodge this submission. The overall need for an inquiry into intellectual property is supported by API. In particular it is noted with approval that the Commission states in its Issues Paper that it is to consider the appropriate balance between “incentives for innovation and investments, and the interests of both individuals and businesses in assessing products”.1 However, API is of the view that intellectual property in the area of real property presents a number of issues which are not fully canvassed in the abovementioned Issues Paper. Intellectual property embedded in valuation and other property-related reports of API members involves the acquisition of information which may possibly be confidential. Yet, when engaged in banks and financial institutions the intellectual property in such valuations and/ or reports is commonly required to be passed to the client bank or financial institution. In the Issues Paper it is proposed that there are seven different forms of intellectual property rights.2 It is the view of API that an eight form exists, namely private agreements. The Issues Paper, however, regards private agreements between firms as alternatives to intellectual property rights. The API considers that “secrecy or confidentiality arrangements”3 as identified in the Issues Paper form a much larger part of the manner in which intellectual property is maintained in Australia for the purposes of trade secrecy or more often, financial confidentiality...

Algorithm of medication review in frail older people: Focus on minimizing the use of high-risk medications

Aim Frail older people typically suffer several chronic diseases, receive multiple medications and are more likely to be institutionalized in residential aged care facilities. In such patients, optimizing prescribing and avoiding use of high-risk medications might prevent adverse events. The present study aimed to develop a pragmatic, easily applied algorithm for medication review to help clinicians identify and discontinue potentially inappropriate high-risk medications. Methods The literature was searched for robust evidence of the association of adverse effects related to potentially inappropriate medications in older patients to identify high-risk medications. Prior research into the cessation of potentially inappropriate medications in older patients in different settings was synthesized into a four-step algorithm for incorporation into clinical assessment protocols for patients, particularly those in residential aged care facilities. Results The algorithm comprises several steps leading to individualized prescribing recommendations: (i) identify a high-risk medication; (ii) ascertain the current indications for the medication and assess their validity; (iii) assess if the drug is providing ongoing symptomatic benefit; and (iv) consider withdrawing, altering or continuing medications. Decision support resources were developed to complement the algorithm in ensuring a systematic and patient-centered approach to medication discontinuation. These include a comprehensive list of high-risk medications and the reasons for inappropriateness, lists of alternative treatments, and suggested medication withdrawal protocols. Conclusions The algorithm captures a range of different clinical scenarios in relation to potentially inappropriate medications, and offers an evidence-based approach to identifying and, if appropriate, discontinuing such medications. Studies are required to evaluate algorithm effects on prescribing decisions and patient outcomes.

Geriatrician interventions on medication prescribing for frail older people in residential aged care facilities

Objective: In Australian residential aged care facilities (RACFs), the use of certain classes of high-risk medication such as antipsychotics, potent analgesics, and sedatives is high. Here, we examined the prescribed medications and subsequent changes recommended by geriatricians during comprehensive geriatric consultations provided to residents of RACFs via videoconference. Design: This is a prospective observational study. Setting: Four RACFs in Queensland, Australia, are included. Participants: A total of 153 residents referred by general practitioners for comprehensive assessment by geriatricians delivered by video-consultation. Results: Residents’ mean (standard deviation, SD) age was 83.0 (8.1) years and 64.1% were female. They had multiple comorbidities (mean 6), high levels of dependency, and were prescribed a mean (SD) of 9.6 (4.2) regular medications. Ninety-one percent of patients were taking five or more medications daily. Of total medications prescribed (n=1,469), geriatricians recommended withdrawal of 9.8% (n=145) and dose alteration of 3.5% (n=51). New medications were initiated in 47.7% (n=73) patients. Of the 10.3% (n=151) medications considered as high risk, 17.2% were stopped and dose altered in 2.6%. Conclusion: There was a moderate prevalence of potentially inappropriate high-risk medications. However, geriatricians made relatively few changes, suggesting either that, on balance, prescription of these medications was appropriate or, because of other factors, there was a reluctance to adjust medications. A structured medication review using an algorithm for withdrawing medications of high disutility might help optimize medications in frail patients. Further research, including a broader survey, is required to understand these dynamics.

Age-related changes in hepatic function: An update on implications for drug therapy

The accumulation of deficits with increasing age results in a decline in the functional capacity of multiple organs and systems. These changes can have a significant influence on the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of prescribed drugs. Although alterations in body composition and worsening renal clearance are important considerations, for most drugs the liver has the greatest effect on metabolism. Age-related change in hepatic function thereby causes much of the variability in older people’s responses to medication. In this review, we propose that a decline in the ability of the liver to inactivate toxins may contribute to a proinflammatory state in which frailty can develop. Since inflammation also downregulates drug metabolism, medication prescribed to frail older people in accordance with disease-specific guidelines may undergo reduced systemic clearance, leading to adverse drug reactions, further functional decline and increasing polypharmacy, exacerbating rather than ameliorating frailty status. We also describe how increasing chronological age and frailty status impact liver size, blood flow and protein binding and enzymes of drug metabolism. This is used to contextualise our discussion of appropriate prescribing practices. For example, while the general axiom of ‘start low, go slow’ should underpin the initiation of medication (titrating to a defined therapeutic goal), it is important to consider whether drug clearance is flow or capacity-limited. By summarising the effect of age-related changes in hepatic function on medications commonly used in older people, we aim to provide a guide that will have high clinical utility for practising geriatricians.

Polypharmacy among inpatients aged 70 years or older in Australia

Objectives To investigate medication changes for older patients admitted to hospital and to explore associations between patient characteristics and polypharmacy. Design Prospective cohort study. Participants and setting Patients aged 70 years or older admitted to general medical units of 11 acute care hospitals in two Australian states between July 2005 and May 2010. All patients were assessed using the interRAI assessment system for acute care. Main outcome measures Measures of physical, cognitive and psychosocial functioning; and number of regular prescribed medications categorised into three groups: non-polypharmacy (0–4 drugs), polypharmacy (5–9 drugs) and hyperpolypharmacy (≥ 10 drugs). Results Of 1220 patients who were recruited for the study, medication records at admission were available for 1216. Mean age was 81.3 years (SD, 6.8 years), and 659 patients (54.2%) were women. For the 1187 patients with complete medication records on admission and discharge, there was a small but statistically significant increase in mean number of regular medications per day between admission and discharge (7.1 v 7.6), while the prevalence of medications such as statins (459 [38.7%] v 457 [38.5%] patients), opioid analgesics (155 [13.1%] v 166 [14.0%] patients), antipsychotics (59 [5.0%] v 65 [5.5%] patients) and benzodiazepines (122 [10.3%] v 135 [11.4%] patients) did not change significantly. Being in a higher polypharmacy category was significantly associated with increase in comorbidities (odds ratio [OR], 1.27; 95% CI, 1.20–1.34), presence of pain (OR, 1.31; 1.05–1.64), dyspnoea (OR, 1.64; 1.30–2.07) and dependence in terms of instrumental activities of daily living (OR, 1.70; 1.20–2.41). Hyperpolypharmacy was observed in 290/1216 patients (23.8%) at admission and 336/1187 patients (28.3%) on discharge, and the proportion of preventive medication in the hyperpolypharmacy category at both points in time remained high (1209/3371 [35.9%] at admission v 1508/4117 [36.6%] at discharge). Conclusions Polypharmacy is common among older people admitted to general medical units of Australian hospitals, with no clinically meaningful change to the number or classification (symptom control, prevention or both) of drugs made by treating physicians.

Prescribing for older people discharged from the acute sector to residential aged-care facilities

For frail older people, admission to hospital is an opportunity to review the indications for specific medications. This research investigates prescribing for 206 older people discharged into residential aged care facilities from 11 acute care hospitals in Australia. Patients had multiple comorbidities (mean 6), high levels of dependency, and were prescribed a mean of 7.2 regular medications at admission to hospital and 8.1 medications on discharge, with hyper-polypharmacy (≥10 drugs) increasing from 24.3% to 32.5%. Many drugs were preventive medications whose time until benefit was likely to exceed the expected lifespan. In summary, frail patients continue to be exposed to extensive polypharmacy and medications with uncertain risk–benefit ratio.

Frailty: A key indicator to minimize inappropriate medication in older people

Older populations are more likely to have multiple co-morbid diseases that require multiple treatments, which make them a large consumer of medications. As a person grows older, their ability to tolerate medications becomes less due to age-related changes in pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics often heading along a path that leads to frailty. Frail older persons often have multiple co-morbidities with signs of impairment in activities of daily living. Prescribing drugs for these vulnerable individuals is difficult and is a potentially unsafe activity. Inappropriate prescribing in older population can be detected using explicit (criterion-based) or implicit (judgment-based) criteria. Unfortunately, most current therapeutic guidelines are applicable only to healthy older adults and cannot be generalized to frail patients. These discrepancies should be addressed either by developing new criteria or by refining the existing tools for frail older people. The first and foremost step is to identify the frail patient in clinical practice by applying clinically validated tools. Once the frail patient has been identified, there is a need for specific measures or criteria to assess appropriateness of therapy that consider such factors as quality of life, functional status and remaining life expectancy and thus modified goals of care.

Electronic Building Passport - Final Report: Project 2 National Energy Efficient Building Project Phase 2

The National Energy Efficient Building Project (NEEBP) Phase One report, published in December 2014, investigated “process issues and systemic failures” in the administration of the energy performance requirements in the National Construction Code. It found that most stakeholders believed that under-compliance with these requirements is widespread across Australia, with similar issues being reported in all states and territories. The report found that many different factors were contributing to this outcome and, as a result, many recommendations were offered that together would be expected to remedy the systemic issues reported. To follow up on this Phase 1 report, three additional projects were commissioned as part of Phase 2 of the overall NEEBP project. This Report deals with the development and piloting of an Electronic Building Passport (EBP) tool – a project undertaken jointly by pitt&sherry and a team at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) led by Dr Wendy Miller. The other Phase 2 projects cover audits of Class 1 buildings and issues relating to building alterations and additions. The passport concept aims to provide all stakeholders with (controlled) access to the key documentation and information that they need to verify the energy performance of buildings. This trial project deals with residential buildings but in principle could apply to any building type. Nine councils were recruited to help develop and test a pilot electronic building passport tool. The participation of these councils – across all states – enabled an assessment of the extent to which these councils are currently utilising documentation; to track the compliance of residential buildings with the energy performance requirements in the National Construction Code (NCC). Overall we found that none of the participating councils are currently compiling all of the energy performance-related documentation that would demonstrate code compliance. The key reasons for this include: a major lack of clarity on precisely what documentation should be collected; cost and budget pressures; low public/stakeholder demand for the documentation; and a pragmatic judgement that non-compliance with any regulated documentation requirements represents a relatively low risk for them. Some councils reported producing documentation, such as certificates of final completion, only on demand, for example. Only three of the nine council participants reported regularly conducting compliance assessments or audits utilising this documentation and/or inspections. Overall we formed the view that documentation and information tracking processes operating within the building standards and compliance system are not working to assure compliance with the Code’s energy performance requirements. In other words the Code, and its implementation under state and territory regulatory processes, is falling short as a ‘quality assurance’ system for consumers. As a result it is likely that the new housing stock is under-performing relative to policy expectations, consuming unnecessary amounts of energy, imposing unnecessarily high energy bills on occupants, and generating unnecessary greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, Councils noted that the demand for documentation relating to building energy performance was low. All the participant councils in the EBP pilot agreed that documentation and information processes need to work more effectively if the potential regulatory and market drivers towards energy efficient homes are to be harnessed. These findings are fully consistent with the Phase 1 NEEBP report. It was also agreed that an EBP system could potentially play an important role in improving documentation and information processes. However, only one of the participant councils indicated that they might adopt such a system on a voluntary basis. The majority felt that such a system would only be taken up if it were: - A nationally agreed system, imposed as a mandatory requirement under state or national regulation; - Capable of being used by multiple parties including councils, private certifiers, building regulators, builders and energy assessors in particular; and - Fully integrated into their existing document management systems, or at least seamlessly compatible rather than a separate, unlinked tool. Further, we note that the value of an EBP in capturing statistical information relating to the energy performance of buildings would be much greater if an EBP were adopted on a nationally consistent basis. Councils were clear that a key impediment to the take up of an EBP system is that they are facing very considerable budget and staffing challenges. They report that they are often unable to meet all community demands from the resources available to them. Therefore they are unlikely to provide resources to support the roll out of an EBP system on a voluntary basis. Overall, we conclude from this pilot that the public good would be well served if the Australian, state and territory governments continued to develop and implement an Electronic Building Passport system in a cost-efficient and effective manner. This development should occur with detailed input from building regulators, the Australian Building Codes Board (ABCB), councils and private certifiers in the first instance. This report provides a suite of recommendations (Section 7.2) designed to advance the development and guide the implementation of a national EBP system.

Psychosocial presentation of revisional LAGB patients: A qualitative study

This qualitative study offers insight into the experiences, expectations, perceptions and beliefs that may lead to laparoscopic adjustable gastric band patients’ failure to achieve expected weight loss and seek revisional bariatric surgery. The 23 participants from two sites were interviewed and data were analysed from a grounded theory methodology in order to build a causal model. Analysis of participants’ reports identified ‘unrealistic expectations of the LAGB’ as the core category. Additionally, the restriction of the band had a negative impact on participants’ social interactions, leading to feelings of deprivation and, thus, to a desire for reward from food choices and consequently an increase of consumption of high-calorie-dense foods. These foods were chosen because of their specific texture or ability to provide reward. The resulting increase in weight or failure to achieve excess weight loss, led to feelings of shame and loneliness and emotional eating resulting in increased the consumption of rewarding foods. Thus, identifying unrealistic expectations of laparoscopic adjustable gastric band (LAGB) and emotional eating behaviours are important in those who are present initially for primary bariatric and revisional bariatric surgery, as they may contribute specifically to these patients’ weight regain and consequent failure to achieve excess weight loss.

Managing uncertainty to improve the cost performance of complex infrastructure projects

There has been a recent spate of high profile infrastructure cost overruns in Australia and internationally. This is just the tip of a longer-term and more deeply-seated problem with initial budget estimating practice, well recognised in both academic research and industry reviews: the problem of uncertainty. A case study of the Sydney Opera House is used to identify and illustrate the key causal factors and system dynamics of cost overruns. It is conventionally the role of risk management to deal with such uncertainty, but the type and extent of the uncertainty involved in complex projects is shown to render established risk management techniques ineffective. This paper considers a radical advance on current budget estimating practice which involves a particular approach to statistical modelling complemented by explicit training in estimating practice. The statistical modelling approach combines the probability management techniques of Savage, which operate on actual distributions of values rather than flawed representations of distributions, and the data pooling technique of Skitmore, where the size of the reference set is optimised. Estimating training employs particular calibration development methods pioneered by Hubbard, which reduce the bias of experts caused by over-confidence and improve the consistency of subjective decision-making. A new framework for initial budget estimating practice is developed based on the combined statistical and training methods, with each technique being explained and discussed.

Paradigmatic considerations for creative practice in Creative Industries research: The case of Australia's Indie 100

This paper begins with the assertion that research grounded in creative practice constitutes a new paradigm. We argue both for and against the idea. We argue against the idea in terms of applying it to the idealised ‘lone artist’ engaged in the production of their art, whose focus of research is a self-reflection upon the art they produce, and whose art is also the findings of the research. Our position is that such an approach cannot be considered as anything other than a form of auto-phenomenography, that such efforts are part of qualitative research, and they are thus trivial in paradigmatic terms. However, we argue in the positive for understanding the artistic event – by which we mean any mass ecology of artistic practice – as being paradigmatically new in terms of research potentials and demands. Our exemplar for that argument is a practice-led, large-scale annual event called Indie 100 which has run for five years and has demonstrated a distinct paradigmatic ‘settling in’ over its duration while clearly pushing paradigmatic boundaries for research into creative practice.