Low-temperature PECVD of nanodevice-Grade nc-3C-SiC

In this work, we report a plasma-based synthesis of nanodevice-grade nc-3C-SiC films, with very high growth rates (7-9 nm min-1) at low and ULSI technology-compatible process temperatures (400-550 °C), featuring: (i) high nanocrystalline fraction (67% at 550 °C); (ii) good chemical purity; (iii) excellent stoichiometry throughout the entire film; (iv) wide optical band gap (3.22-3.71 eV); (v) refractive index close to that of single-crystalline 3C-SiC, and; (vi) clear, uniform, and defect-free Si-SiC interface. The counter-intuitive low SiC hydrogenation in a H2-rich plasma process is explained by hydrogen atom desorption-mediated crystallization.

Sense of home, sense of place : a morpho-typological comparative study of Florida and Queensland

Cities in the 21st century have become layered and complex systems not only in terms of physical form, but also social and cultural structure. Consolidated tools to analyze the urban environment have today to be improved including a strong interdisciplinary perspective in order to understand and manage the unprecedented complexity our cities are facing. Redevelopments, new estates, internal and external migrations are all dynamics which are deeply modifying the built environment directly or indirectly also affecting local identity, culture and social structure. This paper investigates the relationship between urban form and social behaviors, with particular attention to the perception of the built environment and its use by long term residents, recent migrants as well as tourists. A comparative study is suggested between South East Queensland and Florida; this two regions share common features such as subtropical climate, similar lifestyle, leisure cities and canal estates. Neighborhoods on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts have been designed using the communities of Florida, such as Celebration or Seaside, as models. These regions share also significant migration processes, similar social problems and high crime rates, which directly affect the local economies. Comparing Florida and SEQ could provide an understanding of different strategies adopted and how urban development and lifestyle can be managed maintaining social equity and security. This study, investigates people’s perception of built form and how this affects the use of public space. The relationship between built environment and social behaviour has been previously investigated, for example by environmental psychology; the innovation proposed by this research is to study the perception of place in leisure cities at multiple levels. Locals, migrants and tourists have different understanding of the built form in the same location; this understanding affects the use of space and the attitude to visit or avoid some precincts. The research methodology integrates traditional morpho-typological investigations with qualitative methods; data are collected in the first phase through online surveys about perception of urban forms. Findings guide then the selection of neighbourhoods to be investigated in detail through questionnaires and Nolli maps, specifying morphological regions as well as recurrent building typologies. A final phase includes interviews with selected stakeholders. Major urban projects are discussed addressing how they are used and perceived by locals, migrants or tourists; the comparison between SEQ and Florida allows the identification of strategies to address migration issues in both regions with particular attention to urban form and placemaking dynamics.

Electron tomography reveals the steps in filovirus budding

The filoviruses, Marburg and Ebola, are non-segmented negative-strand RNA viruses causing severe hemorrhagic fever with high mortality rates in humans and nonhuman primates. The sequence of events that leads to release of filovirus particles from cells is poorly understood. Two contrasting mechanisms have been proposed, one proceeding via a "submarine-like" budding with the helical nucleocapsid emerging parallel to the plasma membrane, and the other via perpendicular "rocketlike" protrusion. Here we have infected cells with Marburg virus under BSL-4 containment conditions, and reconstructed the sequence of steps in the budding process in three dimensions using electron tomography of plastic-embedded cells. We find that highly infectious filamentous particles are released at early stages in infection. Budding proceeds via lateral association of intracellular nucleocapsid along its whole length with the plasma membrane, followed by rapid envelopment initiated at one end of the nucleocapsid, leading to a protruding intermediate. Scission results in local membrane instability at the rear of the virus. After prolonged infection, increased vesiculation of the plasma membrane correlates with changes in shape and infectivity of released viruses. Our observations demonstrate a cellular determinant of virus shape. They reconcile the contrasting models of filovirus budding and allow us to describe the sequence of events taking place during budding and release of Marburg virus. We propose that this represents a general sequence of events also followed by other filamentous and rod-shaped viruses.

Artemisinin-induced parasite dormancy : a plausible mechanism for treatment failure

Background Artemisinin-combination therapy is a highly effective treatment for uncomplicated falciparum malaria but parasite recrudescence has been commonly reported following artemisinin (ART) monotherapy. The dormancy recovery hypothesis has been proposed to explain this phenomenon, which is different from the slower parasite clearance times reported as the first evidence of the development of ART resistance. Methods In this study, an existing P. falciparum infection model is modified to incorporate the hypothesis of dormancy. Published in vitro data describing the characteristics of dormant parasites is used to explore whether dormancy alone could be responsible for the high recrudescence rates observed in field studies using monotherapy. Several treatment regimens and dormancy rates were simulated to investigate the rate of clinical and parasitological failure following treatment. Results The model output indicates that following a single treatment with ART parasitological and clinical failures occur in up to 77% and 67% of simulations, respectively. These rates rapidly decline with repeated treatment and are sensitive to the assumed dormancy rate. The simulated parasitological and clinical treatment failure rates after 3 and 7 days of treatment are comparable to those reported from several field trials. Conclusions Although further studies are required to confirm dormancy in vivo, this theoretical study adds support for the hypothesis, highlighting the potential role of this parasite sub-population in treatment failure following monotherapy and reinforcing the importance of using ART in combination with other anti-malarials.

Learning in and out of university : Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students’ conceptions and strategies used to learn

Research suggests that students’ approaches to learning and learning outcomes are closely related to their conceptions of learning. This paper describes a phenomenographically inspired investigation into conceptions of formal learning held by 22 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students from three Australian universities in Queensland; experiences of informal learning, reasons for studying and strategies used to learn were also investigated. The attrition rate for these students in tertiary education is higher than that of any other group of students. It was hoped that information gained may delineate factors that contribute to high attrition rates and therefore inform courses of action that may lead to improved teaching and learning practices for these students. Additionally, success in tertiary education for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students may increase their involvement in mainstream society. Results showed that they view and approach university learning in much the same way as other university students. It was also apparent that, generally, the strategies these students used did not match the conceptions of learning they held. An interesting result was the difference between the conceptions of formal learning and explanations of informal learning

Porohyperelastic finite element model for the kangaroo humeral head cartilage based on experimental study and the consolidation theory

Solid-extracellular fluid interaction is believed to play an important role in the strain-rate dependent mechanical behaviors of shoulder articular cartilages. It is believed that the kangaroo shoulder joint is anatomically and biomechanically similar to human shoulder joint and it is easy to get in Australia. Therefore, the kangaroo humeral head cartilage was used as the suitable tissue for the study in this paper. Indentation tests from quasi-static (10-4/sec) to moderately high strain-rate (10-2/sec) on kangaroo humeral head cartilage tissues were conduced to investigate the strain-rate dependent behaviors. A finite element (FE) model was then developed, in which cartilage was conceptualized as a porous solid matrix filled with incompressible fluids. In this model, the solid matrix was modeled as an isotropic hyperelastic material and the percolating fluid follows Darcy’s law. Using inverse FE procedure, the constitutive parameters related to stiffness, compressibility of the solid matrix and permeability were obtained from the experimental results. The effect of solid-extracellular fluid interaction and drag force (the resistance to fluid movement) on strain-rate dependent behavior was investigated by comparing the influence of constant, strain dependent and strain-rate dependent permeability on FE model prediction. The newly developed porohyperelastic cartilage model with the inclusion of strain-rate dependent permeability was found to be able to predict the strain-rate dependent behaviors of cartilages.

Structure and palaeoenvironmental implications of inter-branch coenosteum-rich skeleton in corymbose Acropora species

Coral reefs provide an increasingly important archive of palaeoclimate data that can be used to constrain climate model simulations. Reconstructing past environmental conditions may also provide insights into the potential of reef systems to survive changes in the Earth’s climate. Reef-based palaeoclimate reconstructions are predominately derived from colonies of massive Porites, with the most abundant genus in the Indo-Pacific—Acropora—receiving little attention owing to their branching growth trajectories, high extension rates and secondary skeletal thickening. However, inter-branch skeleton (consisting of both coenosteum and corallites) near the bases of corymbose Acropora colonies holds significant potential as a climate archive. This region of Acropora skeleton is atypical, having simple growth trajectories with parallel corallites, approximately horizontal density banding, low apparent extension rates and a simple microstructure with limited secondary thickening. Hence, inter-branch skeleton in Acropora bears more similarities to the coralla of massive corals, such as Porites, than to traditional Acropora branches. Cyclic patterns of Sr/Ca ratios in this structure suggest that the observed density banding is annual in nature, thus opening up the potential to use abundant corymbose Acropora for palaeoclimate reconstruction.

Seed germination may explain differences in invasiveness and prevalence : a case study using cat's claw creeper (Dolichandra unguis-cati)

High germination rates and rapid germination behavior in response to different environmental cues are traits that may be associated with invasiveness. Cat’s claw creeper (Dolichandra unguis-cati (L.) Lohmann (syn. Macfadyena unguis-cati (L.) Gentry), a Weed of National Significance has two forms, a long-pod (LP) form and a short-pod (SP) from. The LP form occurs in only a few localities in southeast Queensland while the SP form is widely distributed in Queensland and New South Wales. The aims of this investigation were: to evaluate whether there are significant differences in germination traits between the two forms of cat’s claw creeper; and if there are any significant differences, to find out whether the differences in germination can be related to prevalence and invasiveness levels for the two forms. Long pod and short pod seeds collected in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 from various localities in Qld were germinated in growth chambers in early 2013. The growth chambers were set to 10/20 ºC, 15/25 ºC and 20/30 ºC temperature cycles. Seeds from 2009-2012 of either form did not germinate, while for the fresh seeds (2013), SP exhibited significantly higher total germination percentage and rates than LP. Assuming that the two forms were introduced in Australia at around the same period, these results could explain why SP is widely distributed (and therefore more invasive) in Qld and NSW while LP is only confined to a few localities in southeast Qld.

In a perfect world it would be great if they didn't exist : how Australians experience payday loans

In the last few decades payday loans have mushroomed in many developed countries. The arguments for and against an industry which provides small, short-term loans at very high interest rates have also blossomed. This article presents findings from an Australian study to contribute to the international policy and practice debate about a sector which orients to those on a low income. At the heart of this debate lies a conundrum: Borrowing from payday lenders exacerbates poverty, yet many low-income households rely on these loans. We argue that the key problem is the restricted framework within which the debate currently oscillates.

Provincial mortality in South Africa, 2000 - priority-setting for now and a benchmark for the future

Background. Cause-of-death statistics are an essential component of health information. Despite improvements, underregistration and misclassification of causes make it difficult to interpret the official death statistics. Objective. To estimate consistent cause-specific death rates for the year 2000 and to identify the leading causes of death and premature mortality in the provinces. Methods. Total number of deaths and population size were estimated using the Actuarial Society of South Africa ASSA2000 AIDS and demographic model. Cause-of-death profiles based on Statistics South Africa's 15% sample, adjusted for misclassification of deaths due to ill-defined causes and AIDS deaths due to indicator conditions, were applied to the total deaths by age and sex. Age-standardised rates and years of life lost were calculated using age weighting and discounting. Results. Life expectancy in KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga is about 10 years lower than that in the Western Cape, the province with the lowest mortality rate. HIV/AIDS is the leading cause of premature mortality for all provinces. Mortality due to pre-transitional causes, such as diarrhoea, is more pronounced in the poorer and more rural provinces. In contrast, non-communicable disease mortality is similar across all provinces, although the cause profiles differ. Injury mortality rates are particularly high in provinces with large metropolitan areas and in Mpumalanga. Conclusion. The quadruple burden experienced in all provinces requires a broad range of interventions, including improved access to health care; ensuring that basic needs such as those related to water and sanitation are met; disease and injury prevention; and promotion of a healthy lifestyle. High death rates as a result of HIV/AIDS highlight the urgent need to accelerate the implementation of the treatment and prevention plan. In addition, there is an urgent need to improve the cause-of-death data system to provide reliable cause-of-death statistics at health district level.

Community wide interventions for increasing physical activity

Background Multi-strategic community wide interventions for physical activity are increasingly popular but their ability to achieve population level improvements is unknown. Objectives To evaluate the effects of community wide, multi-strategic interventions upon population levels of physical activity. Search methods We searched the Cochrane Public Health Group Segment of the Cochrane Register of Studies,The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, MEDLINE in Process, EMBASE, CINAHL, LILACS, PsycINFO, ASSIA, the British Nursing Index, Chinese CNKI databases, EPPI Centre (DoPHER, TRoPHI), ERIC, HMIC, Sociological Abstracts, SPORTDiscus, Transport Database and Web of Science (Science Citation Index, Social Sciences Citation Index, Conference Proceedings Citation Index). We also scanned websites of the EU Platform on Diet, Physical Activity and Health; Health-Evidence.org; the International Union for Health Promotion and Education; the NIHR Coordinating Centre for Health Technology (NCCHTA); the US Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and NICE and SIGN guidelines. Reference lists of all relevant systematic reviews, guidelines and primary studies were searched and we contacted experts in the field. The searches were updated to 16 January 2014, unrestricted by language or publication status. Selection criteria Cluster randomised controlled trials, randomised controlled trials, quasi-experimental designs which used a control population for comparison, interrupted time-series studies, and prospective controlled cohort studies were included. Only studies with a minimum six-month follow up from the start of the intervention to measurement of outcomes were included. Community wide interventions had to comprise at least two broad strategies aimed at physical activity for the whole population. Studies which randomised individuals from the same community were excluded. Data collection and analysis At least two review authors independently extracted the data and assessed the risk of bias. Each study was assessed for the setting, the number of included components and their intensity. The primary outcome measures were grouped according to whether they were dichotomous (per cent physically active, per cent physically active during leisure time, and per cent physically inactive) or continuous (leisure time physical activity time (time spent)), walking (time spent), energy expenditure (as metabolic equivalents or METS)). For dichotomous measures we calculated the unadjusted and adjusted risk difference, and the unadjusted and adjusted relative risk. For continuous measures we calculated percentage change from baseline, unadjusted and adjusted. Main results After the selection process had been completed, 33 studies were included. A total of 267 communities were included in the review (populations between 500 and 1.9 million). Of the included studies, 25 were set in high income countries and eight were in low income countries. The interventions varied by the number of strategies included and their intensity. Almost all of the interventions included a component of building partnerships with local governments or non-governmental organisations (NGOs) (29 studies). None of the studies provided results by socio-economic disadvantage or other markers of equity. However, of those included studies undertaken in high income countries, 14 studies were described as being provided to deprived, disadvantaged or low socio-economic communities. Nineteen studies were identified as having a high risk of bias, 10 studies were unclear, and four studies had a low risk of bias. Selection bias was a major concern with these studies, with only five studies using randomisation to allocate communities. Four studies were judged as being at low risk of selection bias although 19 studies were considered to have an unclear risk of bias. Twelve studies had a high risk of detection bias, 13 an unclear risk and four a low risk of bias. Generally, the better designed studies showed no improvement in the primary outcome measure of physical activity at a population level. All four of the newly included, and judged to be at low risk of bias, studies (conducted in Japan, United Kingdom and USA) used randomisation to allocate the intervention to the communities. Three studies used a cluster randomised design and one study used a stepped wedge design. The approach to measuring the primary outcome of physical activity was better in these four studies than in many of the earlier studies. One study obtained objective population representative measurements of physical activity by accelerometers, while the remaining three low-risk studies used validated self-reported measures. The study using accelerometry, conducted in low income, high crime communities of USA, emphasised social marketing, partnership with police and environmental improvements. No change in the seven-day average daily minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity was observed during the two years of operation. Some program level effect was observed with more people walking in the intervention community, however this result was not evident in the whole community. Similarly, the two studies conducted in the United Kingdom (one in rural villages and the other in urban London; both using communication, partnership and environmental strategies) found no improvement in the mean levels of energy expenditure per person per week, measured from one to four years from baseline. None of the three low risk studies reporting a dichotomous outcome of physical activity found improvements associated with the intervention. Overall, there was a noticeable absence of reporting of benefit in physical activity for community wide interventions in the included studies. However, as a group, the interventions undertaken in China appeared to have the greatest possibility of success with high participation rates reported. Reporting bias was evident with two studies failing to report physical activity measured at follow up. No adverse events were reported.The data pertaining to cost and sustainability of the interventions were limited and varied. Authors' conclusions Although numerous studies have been undertaken, there is a noticeable inconsistency of the findings in the available studies and this is confounded by serious methodological issues within the included studies. The body of evidence in this review does not support the hypothesis that the multi-component community wide interventions studied effectively increased physical activity for the population, although some studies with environmental components observed more people walking. Plain language summary Community wide interventions for increasing physical activity Not having enough physical activity leads to poorer health. Regular physical activity can reduce the risk of chronic disease and improve one's health and wellbeing. The lack of physical activity is a common and in some cases a growing health problem. To address this, 33 studies have used improvement activities directed at communities, using more than one approach in a single program. When we first looked at the available research in 2011 we observed that there was a lack of good studies which could show whether this approach was beneficial or not. Some studies claimed that community wide programs improved physical activities and other studies did not. In this update we found four new studies that were of good quality; however none of these four studies increased physical activity levels for the population. Some studies reported program level effects such as observing more people walking, however the population level of physical activity had not increased. This review found that community wide interventions are very difficult to undertake, and it appears that they usually fail to provide a measurable benefit in physical activity for a population. It is apparent that many of the interventions failed to reach a substantial portion of the community, and we speculate that some single strategies included in the combination may lack individual effectiveness. Laički sažetak Intervencije u zajednici za povećanje tjelesne aktivnosti Nedostatna tjelesna aktivnost povezana je s lošijim zdravljem.Redovita tjelesna aktivnost može umanjiti rizik od kroničnih bolesti te poboljšati zdravlje i kvalitetu života pojedinca.Manjak tjelesne aktivnosti čest je problem, a učestalost tog problema se povećava.Cochrane sustavni pregled je analizirao 33 studije koje su istražile programe za povećanje tjelesne aktivnosti u zajednici, u kojima se koristilo više od jednog pristupa.Kad su prvi put pregledani dokazi iz istraživanja koja su bila dostupna 2011. godine, utvrđeno je da nema dovoljno dobrih studija koje bi mogle pokazati je li takav pristup koristan ili ne.Primjerice, neke studije tvrde da programi za povećanje tjelesne aktivnosti u zajednici poboljšavaju tjelesnu aktivnost pojedinaca u zajednici, a druge studije tvrde suprotno.U ovom obnovljenom sustavnom pregledu pronađene su 4 nove studije koje su bile visoke kvalitete, ail nijedna od tih studija nije pokazala da je istraživana intervencija dovela do povećanja tjelesne aktivnosti u zajednici.Neke su studije opisale učinak na način da je opisano da je uočeno da više ljudi u zajednici hoda, međutim, ukupna razina tjelesne aktivnosti u promatranoj populaciji nije se povećala.Ovaj sustavni pregled je utvrdio da je intervencije za povećanje tjelesne aktivnosti u zajednici teško provesti i čini se da one obično ne uspijevaju u svojoj namjeri da na mjerljiv način povećaju tjelesnu aktivnost u populaciji.Čini se da mnoge intervencije nisu uspjele doseći veći broj stanovnika u zajednici pa se može smatrati da neke od strategija uključene u analizirane kombinacije nisu zasebno učinkovite.

Versatility of polymethacrylate monoliths for chromatographic purification of biomolecules

Polymethacrylate monoliths, specifically poly(glycidyl methacrylate-co-ethylene dimethacrylate) or poly(GMA-co-EDMA) monoliths, are a new generation of chromatographic supports and are significantly different from conventional particle-based adsorbents, membranes, and other monolithic supports for biomolecule purification. Similar to other monoliths, polymethacrylate monoliths possess large pores which allow convective flow of mobile phase and result in high flow rates at reduced pressure drop, unlike particulate supports. The simplicity of the adsorbent synthesis, pH resistance, and the ease and flexibility of tailoring their pore size to that of the target biomolecule are the key properties which differentiate polymethacrylate monoliths from other monoliths. Polymethacrylate monoliths are endowed with reactive epoxy groups for easy functionalization (with anion-exchange, hydrophobic, and affinity ligands) and high ligand retention. In this review, the structure and performance of polymethacrylate monoliths for chromatographic purification of biomolecules are evaluated and compared to those of other supports. The development and use of polymethacrylate monoliths for research applications have grown rapidly in recent times and have enabled the achievement of high through-put biomolecule purification on semi-preparative and preparative scales.

The suitability of DEAE-Cl active groups on customized poly(GMA-co-EDMA) continuous stationary phase for fast enzyme-free isolation of plasmid DNA

The creation of a commercially viable and a large-scale purification process for plasmid DNA (pDNA) production requires a whole-systems continuous or semi-continuous purification strategy employing optimised stationary adsorption phase(s) without the use of expensive and toxic chemicals, avian/bovine-derived enzymes and several built-in unit processes, thus affecting overall plasmid recovery, processing time and economics. Continuous stationary phases are known to offer fast separation due to their large pore diameter making large molecule pDNA easily accessible with limited mass transfer resistance even at high flow rates. A monolithic stationary sorbent was synthesised via free radical liquid porogenic polymerisation of ethylene glycol dimethacrylate (EDMA) and glycidyl methacrylate (GMA) with surface and pore characteristics tailored specifically for plasmid binding, retention and elution. The polymer was functionalised with an amine active group for anion-exchange purification of pDNA from cleared lysate obtained from E. coli DH5α-pUC19 pellets in RNase/protease-free process. Characterization of the resin showed a unique porous material with 70% of the pores sizes above 300 nm. The final product isolated from anion-exchange purification in only 5 min was pure and homogenous supercoiled pDNA with no gDNA, RNA and protein contamination as confirmed with DNA electrophoresis, restriction analysis and SDS page. The resin showed a maximum binding capacity of 15.2 mg/mL and this capacity persisted after several applications of the resin. This technique is cGMP compatible and commercially viable for rapid isolation of pDNA.

Variation in parental magmas of Mt Rouse, a complex polymagmatic monogenetic volcano in the basaltic intraplate Newer Volcanics Province, southeast Australia

Monogenetic volcanoes have long been regarded as simple in nature, involving single magma batches and uncomplicated evolutions; however, recent detailed research into individual centres is challenging that assumption. Mt Rouse (Kolor) is the volumetrically largest volcano in the monogenetic Newer Volcanics Province of southeast Australia. This study presents new major, trace and Sr–Nd–Pb isotope data for samples selected on the basis of a detailed stratigraphic framework analysis of the volcanic products from Mt Rouse. The volcano is the product of three magma batches geochemically similar to Ocean–Island basalts, featuring increasing LREE enrichment with each magma batch (batches A, B and C) but no evidence of crustal contamination; the Sr–Nd–Pb isotopes define two groupings. Modelling suggests that the magmas were sourced from a zone of partial melting crossing the lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary, with batch A forming a large volume partial melt in the deep lithosphere (1.7 GPa/55.5 km); and batches B and C from similar areas within the shallow asthenosphere (1.88 GPa/61 km and 1.94 GPa/63 km, respectively). The formation and extraction of these magmas may have been due to high deformation rates in the mantle caused by edge-driven convection and asthenospheric upwelling. The lithosphere– asthenosphere boundary is important with respect to NVP volcanism. An eruption chronology involves sequential eruption of magma batches A, C and B, followed by simultaneous eruption of batches A and B. Mt Rouse is a complex polymagmatic monogenetic volcano that illustrates the complexity of monogenetic volcanism and demonstrates the importance of combining detailed stratigraphic analysis alongside systematic geochemical sampling.

Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss

Aim: To quantify the consequences of major threats to biodiversity, such as climate and land-use change, it is important to use explicit measures of species persistence, such as extinction risk. The extinction risk of metapopulations can be approximated through simple models, providing a regional snapshot of the extinction probability of a species. We evaluated the extinction risk of three species under different climate change scenarios in three different regions of the Mexican cloud forest, a highly fragmented habitat that is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Location: Cloud forests in Mexico. Methods: Using Maxent, we estimated the potential distribution of cloud forest for three different time horizons (2030, 2050 and 2080) and their overlap with protected areas. Then, we calculated the extinction risk of three contrasting vertebrate species for two scenarios: (1) climate change only (all suitable areas of cloud forest through time) and (2) climate and land-use change (only suitable areas within a currently protected area), using an explicit patch-occupancy approximation model and calculating the joint probability of all populations becoming extinct when the number of remaining patches was less than five. Results: Our results show that the extent of environmentally suitable areas for cloud forest in Mexico will sharply decline in the next 70 years. We discovered that if all habitat outside protected areas is transformed, then only species with small area requirements are likely to persist. With habitat loss through climate change only, high dispersal rates are sufficient for persistence, but this requires protection of all remaining cloud forest areas. Main conclusions: Even if high dispersal rates mitigate the extinction risk of species due to climate change, the synergistic impacts of changing climate and land use further threaten the persistence of species with higher area requirements. Our approach for assessing the impacts of threats on biodiversity is particularly useful when there is little time or data for detailed population viability analyses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.