Integrated Bayesian network frameworks for modelling complex ecological issues

Ecological problems are typically multi faceted and need to be addressed from a scientific and a management perspective. There is a wealth of modelling and simulation software available, each designed to address a particular aspect of the issue of concern. Choosing the appropriate tool, making sense of the disparate outputs, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing the ecologist and environmental manager. Bayesian Networks provide a statistical modelling framework that enables analysis and integration of information in its own right as well as integration of a variety of models addressing different aspects of a common overall problem. There has been increased interest in the use of BNs to model environmental systems and issues of concern. However, the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilising dynamic and object oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. Such features are particularly appealing in an ecological context, since the underlying facts are often spatial and temporal in nature. This thesis focuses on an integrated BN approach which facilitates OO modelling. Our research devises a new heuristic method, the Iterative Bayesian Network Development Cycle (IBNDC), for the development of BN models within a multi-field and multi-expert context. Expert elicitation is a popular method used to quantify BNs when data is sparse, but expert knowledge is abundant. The resulting BNs need to be substantiated and validated taking this uncertainty into account. Our research demonstrates the application of the IBNDC approach to support these aspects of BN modelling. The complex nature of environmental issues makes them ideal case studies for the proposed integrated approach to modelling. Moreover, they lend themselves to a series of integrated sub-networks describing different scientific components, combining scientific and management perspectives, or pooling similar contributions developed in different locations by different research groups. In southern Africa the two largest free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations are in Namibia and Botswana, where the majority of cheetahs are located outside protected areas. Consequently, cheetah conservation in these two countries is focussed primarily on the free-ranging populations as well as the mitigation of conflict between humans and cheetahs. In contrast, in neighbouring South Africa, the majority of cheetahs are found in fenced reserves. Nonetheless, conflict between humans and cheetahs remains an issue here. Conservation effort in South Africa is also focussed on managing the geographically isolated cheetah populations as one large meta-population. Relocation is one option among a suite of tools used to resolve human-cheetah conflict in southern Africa. Successfully relocating captured problem cheetahs, and maintaining a viable free-ranging cheetah population, are two environmental issues in cheetah conservation forming the first case study in this thesis. The second case study involves the initiation of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a blue-green algae, in Deception Bay, Australia. L. majuscula is a toxic algal bloom which has severe health, ecological and economic impacts on the community located in the vicinity of this algal bloom. Deception Bay is an important tourist destination with its proximity to Brisbane, Australia’s third largest city. Lyngbya is one of several algae considered to be a Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB). This group of algae includes other widespread blooms such as red tides. The occurrence of Lyngbya blooms is not a local phenomenon, but blooms of this toxic weed occur in coastal waters worldwide. With the increase in frequency and extent of these HAB blooms, it is important to gain a better understanding of the underlying factors contributing to the initiation and sustenance of these blooms. This knowledge will contribute to better management practices and the identification of those management actions which could prevent or diminish the severity of these blooms.

What’em with the apology? : the National Apology to the Stolen Generations two years on

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s Apology to Australia’s Stolen Generations, delivered on 13 February 2008, is both personal and political to me just as the people who talk about it make it political and personal through their actions. This paper represents my attempt to turn the gaze through articulating some of my thoughts on the Apology, policy statements (Close the Gap) and the inconsistencies within the leadership of the present governments. I have endeavoured to do this through exploring the articulations of others and by sharing examples and personal experiences. In bringing forth some analysis to the literature, examples and experiences, I reveal the relationships between oppression, white race privilege and institutional privilege and the epistemology that maintains them. In moving from the position of being silent on the Apology, and my political experiences, to speaking about them, I am able to move from the position of object to subject and to gain a form of liberated voice (hooks 1989:9). Furthermore, I am hopeful that it will encourage others to examine their own practices within political parties and governments and to challenge the domination that continues to subjugate Indigenous peoples. It is only through people enacting their responsibilities and making changes in their daily lives and through the institutions and organisations to which they belong (the personal and political), can the Apology move beyond symbolic to action.

Enhancing transition : an enhanced model of clinical placement for final year nursing students

Specialised support for student nurses making the transition to graduate nurse can be crucial to successful and smooth adjustment, and can create a path to positive and stable career experiences. This paper describes an enhanced model of final year nursing student placements which was trialled in 2006 at the Queensland University of Technology. The model involved collaboration with two major urban health services and resources were developed to support effective transition experiences. Ninety-two students, including 29 trial participants and 63 non-trial participants were assessed on preparedness for professional practice, before and after the trial semester. Results indicated an increase in preparedness across the entire sample, but students participating in the trial did not differ significantly in overall preparedness change from those who did not participate. Higher baseline preparedness in the trial group highlighted the possibility that proactive students who choose enrichment experiences tend to be likelier to gain benefit from such options than those who do not. Qualitative findings from focus groups conducted with 12 transition group students highlighted that one of the main beneficial aspects of the experience for students was the sense of belonging to a team that understood their learning needs and could work constructively with them.

Critique groups : a technique for the author’s toolbox?

With a lack of places to gain an education in the craft of romance writing, novelists have few places to turn to gain real feedback. This paper investigates an alternative to textbooks, conferences, and workshops through an examination of the role provided to the writer by critique groups. How these groups work, how they benefit an author, and the critique groups as a whole are discussed. This work studies the form of Peer Assessment and Learning (PAL) and compares the technique used by educational institutions all over the world with the practice of author groups critiquing their own work. The research shows how a critique group can assist a writer to learn, grow and develop, helping to enhance the writer’s skills through constructive feedback, which gives them confidence to sell their work.

Attractiveness of venture ideas : a conjoint study

Principal Topic : According to Shane & Venkataraman (2000) entrepreneurship consists of the recognition and exploitation of venture ideas - or opportunities as they often called - to create future goods and services. This definition puts venture ideas is at the heart of entrepreneurship research. Substantial research has been done on venture ideas in order to enhance our understanding of this phenomenon (e.g. Choi & Shepherd, 2004; Shane, 2000; Shepherd & DeTienne, 2005). However, we are yet to learn what factors drive entrepreneurs' perceptions of the relative attractiveness of venture ideas, and how important different idea characteristics are for such assessments. Ruef (2002) recognized that there is an uneven distribution of venture ideas undertaken by entrepreneurs in the USA. A majority introduce either a new product/service or access a new market or market segment. A smaller percentage of entrepreneurs introduce a new method of production, organizing, or distribution. This implies that some forms of venture ideas are perceived by entrepreneurs as more important or valuable than others. However, Ruef does not provide any information regarding why some forms of venture ideas are more common than others among entrepreneurs. Therefore, this study empirically investigates what factors affect the attractiveness of venture ideas as well as their relative importance. Based on two key characteristics of venture ideas, namely venture idea newness and relatedness, our study investigates how different types and degrees of newness and relatedness of venture ideas affect their attractiveness as perceived by expert entrepreneurs. Methodology/Key : Propositions According to Schumpeter (1934) entrepreneurs introduce different types of venture ideas such as new products/services, new method of production, enter into new markets/customer and new method of promotion. Further, according to Schumpeter (1934) and Kirzner (1973) venture ideas introduced to the market range along a continuum of innovative to imitative ideas. The distinction between these two extremes of venture idea highlights an important property of venture idea, namely their newness. Entrepreneurs, in order to gain competitive advantage or above average returns introduce their venture ideas which may be either new to the world, new to the market that they seek to enter, substantially improved from current offerings and an imitative form of existing offerings. Expert entrepreneurs may be more attracted to venture ideas that exhibit high degree of newness because of the higher newness is coupled with increased market potential (Drucker, 1985) Moreover, certain individual characteristics also affect the attractiveness of venture idea. According to Shane (2000), individual's prior knowledge is closely associated with the recognition of venture ideas. Sarasvathy's (2001) Effectuation theory proposes a high degree of relatedness between venture ideas and the resource position of the individual. Thus, entrepreneurs may be more attracted to venture ideas that are closely aligned with the knowledge and/or resources they already possess. On the other hand, the potential financial gain (Shepherd & DeTienne, 2005) may be larger for ideas that are not close to the entrepreneurs' home turf. Therefore, potential financial gain is a stimulus that has to be considered separately. We aim to examine how entrepreneurs weigh considerations of different forms of newness and relatedness as well as potential financial gain in assessing the attractiveness of venture ideas. We use conjoint analysis to determine how expert entrepreneurs develop preferences for venture ideas which involved with different degrees of newness, relatedness and potential gain. This analytical method paves way to measure the trade-offs they make when choosing a particular venture idea. The conjoint analysis estimates respondents' preferences in terms of utilities (or part-worth) for each level of newness, relatedness and potential gain of venture ideas. A sample of 50 expert entrepreneurs who were awarded young entrepreneurship awards in Sri Lanka in 2007 is used for interviews. Each respondent is interviewed providing with 32 scenarios which explicate different combinations of possible profiles open them into consideration. Conjoint software (SPSS) is used to analyse data. Results and Implications : The data collection of this study is still underway. However, results of this study will provide information regarding the attractiveness of each level of newness, relatedness and potential gain of venture idea and their relative importance in a business model. Additionally, these results provide important implications for entrepreneurs, consultants and other stakeholders as regards the importance of different of attributes of venture idea coupled with different levels. Entrepreneurs, consultants and other stakeholders could make decisions accordingly.

The growth-profitability relationship : strategic orientations as moderator

Principal Topic: In this study we investigate how strategic orientation moderates the impact of growth on profitability for a sample of Danish high growth (Gazelle) firms. ---------- Firm growth has been an essential part of both management research and entrepreneurship research for decades (e.g. Penrose 1959, Birch 1987, Storey 1994). From a societal point of view, firm growth has been perceived as economic generator and job creator. In entrepreneurship research, growth has been an important part of the field (Davidsson, Delmar and Wiklund 2006), and many have used growth as a measure of success. In strategic management, growth has been seen as an approach to achieve competitive advantages and a way of becoming increasing profitable (e.g. Russo and Fouts 1997, Cho and Pucic 2005). However, although firm growth used to be perceived as a natural pathway to profitability recently more skepticism has emerged due to both new theoretical development and new empirical insights. Empirically, studies show inconsistent and inconclusive empirical evidence regarding the impact of growth on profitability. Our review reveals that some studies find a substantial positive relationship, some find a weak positive relationship, some find no relationship and further some find a negative relationship. Overall, two dominant yet divergent theoretical positions can be identified. The first position, mainly focusing on the environmental fit, argues that firms are likely to become more profitable if they enter a market quickly and on a larger scale due to first mover advantages and economic of scale. The second position, mainly focusing the internal fit, argues that growth may lead to a range of internal challenges and difficulties, including rapid change in structure, reward systems, decision making, communication and management style. The inconsistent empirical results together with two divergent theoretical positions call for further investigations into the circumstances by which growth generate profitability and into the circumstances by which growth do not generate profitability. In this project, we investigate how strategic orientations influence the impact of growth on profitability by asking the following research question: How is the impact of growth on profitability moderated by strategic orientation? Based on a literature review of how growth impacts profitability in areas such as entrepreneurship, strategic management and strategic entrepreneurship we develop three hypotheses regarding the growth-profitability relationship and strategic orientation as a potential moderator. ---------- Methodology/Key Propositions: The three hypotheses are tested on data collected in 2008. All firms in Denmark, including all listed and non-listed (VAT-registered) firms who experienced a 100 % growth and had a positive sales or gross profit over a four years period (2004-2007) were surveyed. In total 2,475 fulfilled the requirements. Among those 1,107 firms returned usable questionnaires satisfactory giving us a response rate on 45 %. The financial data together with data on number of employees were obtained from D&B (previously Dun & Bradstreet). The remaining data were obtained through the survey. Hierarchical regression models with ROA (return on assets) as the dependent variable were used to test the hypotheses. In the first model control variables including region, industry, firm age, CEO age, CEO gender, CEO education and number of employees were entered. In the second model, growth measured as growth in employees was entered. Then strategic orientation (differentiation, cost leadership, focus differentiation and focus cost leadership) and then interaction effects of strategic orientation and growth were entered in the model. ---------- Results and Implications: The results show a positive impact of firm growth on profitability and further that this impact is moderated by strategic orientation. Specifically, it was found that growth has a larger impact on profitability when firms do not pursue a focus strategy including both focus differentiation and focus cost leadership. Our preliminary interpretation of the results suggests that the value of growth depends on the circumstances and more specifically 'how much is left to fight for'. It seems like those firms who target towards a narrow segment are less likely to gain value of growth. The remaining market shares to fight for to these firms are not large enough to compensate for the cost of growing. Based on our findings, it therefore seems like growth has a more positive relationship with profitability for those who approach a broad market segment. Furthermore we argue that firms pursuing af Focus strategy will have more specialized assets that decreases the possibilities of further profitable expansion. For firms, CEOs, board of directors etc., the study shows that high growth is not necessarily something worth aiming for. It is a trade-off between the cost of growing and the value of growing. For many firms, there might be better ways of generating profitability in the long run. It depends on the strategic orientation of the firm. For advisors and consultants, the conditional value of growth implies that in-depth knowledge on their clients' situation is necessary before any advice can be given. And finally, for policy makers, it means they have to be careful when initiating new policies to promote firm growth. They need to take into consideration firm strategy and industry conditions.

Performing composition : developing a computer assisted composition system through live coding performance

This thesis maps the author's journey from a music composition practice to a composition and performance practice. The work involves the development of a software library for the purpose of encapsulating compositional ideas in software, and realising these ideas in performance through a live coding computer music practice. The thesis examines what artistic practice emerges through live coding and software development, and does this permit a blurring between the activities of music composition and performance. The role that software design plays in affecting musical outcomes is considered to gain an insight into how software development contributes to artistic development. The relationship between music composition and performance is also examined to identify the means by which engaging in live coding and software development can bring these activities together. The thesis, situated within the discourse of practice led research, documents a journey which uses the experience of software development and performance as a means to guide the direction of the research. The journey serves as an experiment for the author in engaging an hitherto unfamiliar musical practice, and as a roadmap for others seeking to modify or broaden their artistic practice.

The conceptualisation, sensitivity and measurement of holding costs and other selected elements impacting housing affordability (Literature review and research methodology for confirmation of PhD candidature)

It is widely held that strong relationships exist between housing, economic status, and well being. This is exemplified by widespread housing stock surpluses in many countries which threaten to destabilise numerous aspects related to individuals and community. However, the position of housing demand and supply is not consistent. The Australian position provides a distinct contrast whereby seemingly inexorable housing demand generally remains a critical issue affecting the socio-economic landscape. Underpinned by high levels of immigration, and further buoyed by sustained historically low interest rates, increasing income levels, and increased government assistance for first home buyers, this strong housing demand ensures elements related to housing affordability continue to gain prominence. A significant, but less visible factor impacting housing affordability – particularly new housing development – relates to holding costs. These costs are in many ways “hidden” and cannot always be easily identified. Although it is only one contributor, the nature and extent of its impact requires elucidation. In its simplest form, it commences with a calculation of the interest or opportunity cost of land holding. However, there is significantly more complexity for major new developments - particularly greenfield property development. Preliminary analysis conducted by the author suggests that even small shifts in primary factors impacting holding costs can appreciably affect housing affordability – and notably, to a greater extent than commonly held. Even so, their importance and perceived high level impact can be gauged from the unprecedented level of attention policy makers have given them over recent years. This may be evidenced by the embedding of specific strategies to address burgeoning holding costs (and particularly those cost savings associated with streamlining regulatory assessment) within statutory instruments such as the Queensland Housing Affordability Strategy, and the South East Queensland Regional Plan. However, several key issues require investigation. Firstly, the computation and methodology behind the calculation of holding costs varies widely. In fact, it is not only variable, but in some instances completely ignored. Secondly, some ambiguity exists in terms of the inclusion of various elements of holding costs, thereby affecting the assessment of their relative contribution. Perhaps this may in part be explained by their nature: such costs are not always immediately apparent. Some forms of holding costs are not as visible as the more tangible cost items associated with greenfield development such as regulatory fees, government taxes, acquisition costs, selling fees, commissions and others. Holding costs are also more difficult to evaluate since for the most part they must be ultimately assessed over time in an ever-changing environment, based on their strong relationship with opportunity cost which is in turn dependant, inter alia, upon prevailing inflation and / or interest rates. By extending research in the general area of housing affordability, this thesis seeks to provide a more detailed investigation of those elements related to holding costs, and in so doing determine the size of their impact specifically on the end user. This will involve the development of soundly based economic and econometric models which seek to clarify the componentry impacts of holding costs. Ultimately, there are significant policy implications in relation to the framework used in Australian jurisdictions that promote, retain, or otherwise maximise, the opportunities for affordable housing.

Trailblazers

A recent study in the United Kingdom (Ofsted Report 2008) provides strong evidence that well-organized activities outside the classroom contribute significantly to the quality and depth of children's learning, including their personal, social, and emotional development. Outdoor math trails supply further evidence of such enhanced learning: They are meaningful, stimulating, challenging, and exciting for children. Most important, these trails invite all students, irrespective of their classroom achievement level, to participate successfully in the problem activities and gain a sense of pride in the mathematics they create. Additionally, Math trails empower lifelong learning. Integrating "outside" mathematics with "inside" classroom mathematics can sow the seeds to develop flexible, creative, future-oriented mathematical thinkers and problem solvers. Here, English et al discuss how to design and implement math trails to promote active, meaningful, real-world mathematical learning beyond the classroom walls.

Performance pressure an empirical analysis using world and Euro cups data

There is a notable shortage of empirical research directed at measuring the magnitude and direction of stress effects on performance in a controlled environment. One reason for this is the inherent difficulties in identifying and isolating direct performance measures for individuals. Additionally most traditional work environments contain a multitude of exogenous factors impacting individual performance, but controlling for all such factors is generally unfeasible (omitted variable bias). Moreover, instead of asking individuals about their self-reported stress levels we observe workers' behavior in situations that can be classified as stressful. For this reason we have stepped outside the traditional workplace in an attempt to gain greater controllability of these factors using the sports environment as our experimental space. We empirically investigate the relationship between stress and performance, in an extreme pressure situation (football penalty kicks) in a winner take all sporting environment (FIFA World Cup and UEFA European Cup competitions). Specifically, we examine all the penalty shootouts between 1976 and 2008 covering in total 16 events. The results indicate that extreme stressors can have a positive or negative impact on Individuals' performance. On the other hand, more commonly experienced stressors do not affect professionals' performances.

Steering towards pinnacle of success : the NEC tenets in Australian construction contracting

Contractual relationships have become increasingly strained in recent years in the construction industry result in the use of the judicial system for the settlement of contractual disagreements. Why is this so? Evidence from anecdotes suggest that the lack of capacity amongst owners and contractors to carry out a contract using a good practice approach during the construction of a project contribute to the occurrence of conflicts, losses, deficient contractual relationships and poor performance of the construction work. Recognizing that current forms of contract in use today perpetuate a legacy of construction problems, we are conducting explanatory research to examine whether the widely publicized benefits of New Engineering Contract (NEC) could be realized in the Australian construction industry. This paper outlines a research agenda that will help shed light on how contract forms are able to be used as a mechanism to ensure construction projects are delivered successfully whilst also meeting the goals of multiple stakeholders. Understanding the Critical Success Factors (CSFs), commonly used construction contracts and the NEC system can help us address some of these issues. However, there are gaps in the validation of the benefits of NEC and its link with project success. We identify some of these gaps and propose a methodology by which to gain insights into this phenomenon. Keywords: Project Success, Construction Contracting, New Engineering Contract (NEC)

Intellectual property : designing 4 success. Safeguarding your innovations - rights, obligations and opportunities in creating intellectual property by design

Design talks LOUDLY!!! Is a series of interactive presentations exploring issues and opportunities involving professional design. --------------- These seminars are organised by the Industrial Design Network Queensland (IDnetQLD) in coordination with the Design Institute of Australia (DIA). This event was held at the State Library of Queensland (SLQ) with invited public presentations by a panel of industry experts from the Australian Government – IP Australia. --------------- The first seminar "Intellectual Property : designing 4 success" highlighted to design professionals how the various forms of Intellectual Property interact, what protections and pitfalls exist, and how these impact upon the work and responsibilities of designers. The overlaps, gaps and in congruencies in the various IP protection systems were highlighted by the expert line-up of speakers. --------------- The underlying message is that a clear understanding of all IP types is necessary in order to gain the best advantage from IP protection and therefore eliminate potential IP ownership issues before they become a problem.

A global vision system for a robot soccer team

This paper describes the real time global vision system for the robot soccer team the RoboRoos. It has a highly optimised pipeline that includes thresholding, segmenting, colour normalising, object recognition and perspective and lens correction. It has a fast ‘paint’ colour calibration system that can calibrate in any face of the YUV or HSI cube. It also autonomously selects both an appropriate camera gain and colour gains robot regions across the field to achieve colour uniformity. Camera geometry calibration is performed automatically from selection of keypoints on the field. The system achieves a position accuracy of better than 15mm over a 4m × 5.5m field, and orientation accuracy to within 1°. It processes 614 × 480 pixels at 60Hz on a 2.0GHz Pentium 4 microprocessor.

Toward robust image detection of crown-of-thorns starfish for autonomous population monitoring

Robust texture recognition in underwater image sequences for marine pest population control such as Crown-Of-Thorns Starfish (COTS) is a relatively unexplored area of research. Typically, humans count COTS by laboriously processing individual images taken during surveys. Being able to autonomously collect and process images of reef habitat and segment out the various marine biota holds the promise of allowing researchers to gain a greater understanding of the marine ecosystem and evaluate the impact of different environmental variables. This research applies and extends the use of Local Binary Patterns (LBP) as a method for texture-based identification of COTS from survey images. The performance and accuracy of the algorithms are evaluated on a image data set taken on the Great Barrier Reef.

Controversies of prophylactic hypothermia and the emerging use of brain tissue oxygen tension monitoring and decompressive craniectomy in traumatic brain-injured children

Background Despite being the leading cause of death and disability in the paediatric population, traumatic brain injury (TBI) in this group is largely understudied. Clinical practice within the paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) has been based upon adult guidelines however children are significantly different in terms of mechanism, pathophysiology and consequence of injury. Aim To review TBI management in the PICU and gain insight into potential management strategies. Method To conduct this review, a literature search was conducted using MEDLINE, PUBMED and The Cochrane Library using the following key words; traumatic brain injury; paediatric; hypothermia. There were no date restrictions applied to ensure that past studies, whose principles remain current were not excluded. Results Three areas were identified from the literature search and will be discussed against current acknowledged treatment strategies: Prophylactic hypothermia, brain tissue oxygen tension monitoring and decompressive craniectomy. Conclusion Previous literature has failed to fully address paediatric specific management protocols and we therefore have little evidence-based guidance. This review has shown that there is an emerging and ongoing trend towards paediatric specific TBI research in particular the area of moderate prophylactic hypothermia (MPH).