The health effects of temperature : current estimates, future projections, and adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

Recent innovations in cold-formed tubular sections

Cold-formed tubular sections are widely used in many modern steel structures. Two innovative cold-formed sections have been introduced to the Australian building industry. They are the 'in-line' galvanized rectangular hollow section (RHS) tubes and the hollow flange beams (HFB). They offer significant advantages but at the same time provide challenges to designers because of their special characteristics. The application, manufacturing, advantages and characteristics of these two sections are described.

Tissue viability imaging of skin microcirculation following exposure to whole body cryotherapy (-110°C) and cold water immersion (8°C)

Cryotherapy is currently used in various clinical, rehabilitative, and sporting settings. However, very little is known regarding the impact of cooling on the microcirculatory response. Objectives: The present study sought to examine the influence of two commonly employed modalities of cryotherapy, whole body cryotherapy (WBC; -110°C) and cold water immersion(CWI; 8±1°C), on skin microcirculation in the mid- thigh region. Methods: The skin area examined was a 3 × 3 cm located between the most anterior aspect of the inguinal fold and the patella. Following 10 minutes of rest, 5 healthy, active males were exposed to either WBC for 3 minutes or CWI for 5 minutes in a randomised order. Volunteers lay supine for five minutes after treatment, in order to monitor the variation of red blood cell (RBC) concentration in the region of interest for a duration of 40 minutes. Microcirculation response was assessed using a non-invasive, portable instrument known as a Tissue Viability imaging system. After a minimum of seven days, the protocol was repeated. Subjective assessment of the volunteer’s thermal comfort and thermal sensation was also recorded. Results: RBC was altered following exposure to both WBC and CWI but appeared to stabilise approximately 35 minutes after treatments. Both WBC and CWI affected thermal sensation (p < 0.05); however no betweengroup differences in thermal comfort or sensation were recorded (p > 0.05). Conclusions: As both WBC and CWI altered RBC, further study is necessary to examine the mechanism for this alteration during whole body cooling.

Effects of cold weather on durability of CFRP strengthened circular hollow steel members

Tubular members have become progressively more popular due to excellent structural properties, aesthetic appearance, corrosion and fire protection capability. However, a large number of such structures are found structurally deficient due to reduction of strength when they expose to severe environmental conditions such as marine environment, cold and hot weather. Hence strengthening and retrofitting of structural members are in high demands. In recent times Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymers (CFRP) composites appears to be an excellent solution to enhance the load carrying capacity and serviceability of steel structures because of its superior physical and mechanical properties. However, the durability of such strengthening system under cold environmental condition has not yet been well documented to guide the engineers. This paper presents the findings of a study conducted to enhance the bond durability of CFRP strengthened steel tubular members by treating steel surface using epoxy based adhesion promoter under cold weather subjected to bending. The experimental program consisted of six number of CFRP strengthened specimens and one bare specimen. The sand blasted surface of the three specimens to be strengthened was pre-treated with MBrace primer and other three were remained untreated and then cured under ambient temperature and cold weather (3oC) for three and six months period of time. The beams were then loaded to failure under four point bending. The structural response of each specimen was predicted in terms of failure mode, failure load and mid-span deflection. The research findings show that the cold weather immersion had an adverse effect on durability of CFRP strengthened structures. Moreover, the epoxy based adhesion promoter was found to enhance the bond durability in elastic range.

Fire performance of cold-formed steel wall panels and prediction of their fire resistance rating

Recent research at the Queensland University of Technology has investigated the structural and thermal behaviour of load bearing Light gauge Steel Frame (LSF) wall systems made of 1.15 mm G500 steel studs and varying plasterboard and insulation configurations (cavity and external insulation) using full scale fire tests. Suitable finite element models of LSF walls were then developed and validated by comparing with test results. In this study, the validated finite element models of LSF wall panels subject to standard fire conditions were used in a detailed parametric study to investigate the effects of important parameters such as steel grade and thickness, plasterboard screw spacing, plasterboard lateral restraint, insulation materials and load ratio on their performance under standard fire conditions. Suitable equations were proposed to predict the time–temperature profiles of LSF wall studs with eight different plasterboard-insulation configurations, and used in the finite element analyses. Finite element parametric studies produced extensive fire performance data for the LSF wall panels in the form of load ratio versus time and critical hot flange (failure) temperature curves for eight wall configurations. This data demonstrated the superior fire performance of externally insulated LSF wall panels made of different steel grades and thicknesses. It also led to the development of a set of equations to predict the important relationship between the load ratio and the critical hot flange temperature of LSF wall studs. Finally this paper proposes a simplified method to predict the fire resistance rating of LSF walls based on the two proposed set of equations for the load ratio–hot flange temperature and the time–temperature relationships.

A gene encoding a new cold-active lipase from an Antarctic isolate of Penicillium expansum

Cold-active lipases are of significant interest as biocatalysts in industrial processes. We have identified a lipase that displayed activity towards long carbon-chain-p-nitrophenyl substrates (C12–C18) at 25 °C from the culture supernatant of an Antarctic Penicillium expansum strain assigned P. expansum SM3. Zymography revealed a protein band of around 30 kDa with activity towards olive oil. DNA fragments of a lipase gene designated as lipPE were isolated from the genomic DNA of P. expansum SM3 by genomic walking PCR. Subsequently, the complete genomic lipPE gene was amplified using gene-specific primers designed from the 5′- and 3′-regions. Reverse transcription PCR was used to amplify the lipPE cDNA. The deduced amino acid sequence consisted of 285 residues that included a predicted signal peptide. Three peptides identified by LC/MS/MS analysis of the proteins in the culture supernatant of P. expansum were also present in the deduced amino acid sequence of the lipPE gene suggesting that this gene encoded the lipase identified by initial zymogram activity analysis. Full analysis of the nucleotide and the deduced amino acid sequences indicated that the lipPE gene encodes a novel P. expansum lipase. The lipPE gene was expressed in E. coli for further characterization of the enzyme with a view of assessing its suitability for industrial applications.

Enzyme activities and biotechnological applications of cold-active microfungi

Fungi are eukaryotic organisms and considered to be less adaptable to extreme environments when compared to bacteria. While there are no thermophilic microfungi in a strict sense, some fungi have adapted to life in the cold. Cold-active microfungi have been isolated from the Antarctic and their enzyme activities explored with a view to finding new candidates for industrial use. On another front, environmental pollution by petroleum products in the Antarctic has led to a search for, and the subsequent discovery of, fungal isolates capable of degrading hydrocarbons. The work has paved the way to developing a bioremedial approach to containing this type of contamination in cold climates. Here we discuss our efforts to map the capability of Antarctic microfungi to degrade oil and also introduce a novel cold-active fungal lipase enzyme.

The role of ethylene and cold temperature in the regulation of the apple POLYGALACTURONASE1 gene and fruit softening

Fruit softening in apple (Malus 3 domestica) is associated with an increase in the ripening hormone ethylene. Here, we show that in cv Royal Gala apples that have the ethylene biosynthetic gene ACC OXIDASE1 suppressed, a cold treatment preconditions the apples to soften independently of added ethylene. When a cold treatment is followed by an ethylene treatment, a more rapid softening occurs than in apples that have not had a cold treatment. Apple fruit softening has been associated with the increase in the expression of cell wall hydrolase genes. One such gene, POLYGALACTURONASE1 (PG1), increases in expression both with ethylene and following a cold treatment. Transcriptional regulation of PG1 through the ethylene pathway is likely to be through an ETHYLENE-INSENSITIVE3-like transcription factor, which increases in expression during apple fruit development and transactivates the PG1 promoter in transient assays in the presence of ethylene. A coldrelated gene that resembles a COLD BINDING FACTOR (CBF) class of gene also transactivates the PG1 promoter. The transactivation by the CBF-like gene is greatly enhanced by the addition of exogenous ethylene. These observations give a possible molecular mechanism for the coldand ethylene-regulated control of fruit softening and suggest that either these two pathways act independently and synergistically with each other or cold enhances the ethylene response such that background levels of ethylene in the ethylene-suppressed apples is sufficient to induce fruit softening in apples.

Silica nanoparticles treated by cold atmospheric-pressure plasmas improve the dielectric performance of organic–inorganic nanocomposites

We report on the application of cold atmospheric-pressure plasmas to modify silica nanoparticles to enhance their compatibility with polymer matrices. Thermally nonequilibrium atmospheric-pressure plasma is generated by a high-voltage radio frequency power source operated in the capacitively coupled mode with helium as the working gas. Compared to the pure polymer and the polymer nanocomposites with untreated SiO2, the plasma-treated SiO2–polymer nanocomposites show higher dielectric breakdown strength and extended endurance under a constant electrical stress. These improvements are attributed to the stronger interactions between the SiO2 nanoparticles and the surrounding polymer matrix after the plasma treatment. Our method is generic and can be used in the production of high-performance organic–inorganic functional nanocomposites.

Pulsed dc- and sine-wave-excited cold atmospheric plasma plumes: A comparative analysis

Cold atmospheric-pressure plasma plumes are generated in the ambient air by a single-electrode plasma jet device powered by pulsed dc and ac sine-wave excitation sources. Comprehensive comparisons of the plasma characteristics, including electrical properties, optical emission spectra, gas temperatures, plasma dynamics, and bacterial inactivation ability of the two plasmas are carried out. It is shown that the dc pulse excited plasma features a much larger discharge current and stronger optical emission than the sine-wave excited plasma. The gas temperature in the former discharge remains very close to the room temperature across the entire plume length; the sine-wave driven discharge also shows a uniform temperature profile, which is 20-30 degrees higher than the room temperature. The dc pulse excited plasma also shows a better performance in the inactivation of gram-positive staphylococcus aureus bacteria. These results suggest that the pulsed dc electric field is more effective for the generation of nonequilibrium atmospheric pressure plasma plumes for advanced plasma health care applications.

Effects of plasterboard joints on the fire performance of cold-formed steel walls

This paper presents the effect of plasterboard joints on the fire performance of cold-formed steel walls. Plasterboard joints are unavoidable. However, they can be arranged in a way that they do not significantly influence the fire performance of cold-formed steel walls. Hence a research study into the effects of plasterboard joints on the fire performance of plasterboard lined cold-formed steel walls was undertaken using both full-scale fire tests and numerical studies. In this study a back-blocking technique was used to eliminate the plasterboard joints being located over the studs. Instead plasterboard joints were used between studs with 150 mm wide plasterboards as back-blocks. Both experimental and numerical results from this study show that the fire resistance rating of single plasterboard lined cold-formed steel walls can be increased by 25% through the use of a back-blocking joint arrangement in comparison to the traditional plasterboard joint arrangement over the studs.

Experimental investigation of post-fire mechanical properties of cold-formed steels

Cold-formed steel members are widely used in residential, industrial and commercial buildings as primary load-bearing elements. During fire events, they will be exposed to elevated temperatures. If the general appearance of the structure is satisfactory after a fire event then the question that has to be answered is how the load bearing capacity of cold-formed steel members in these buildings has been affected. Hence after such fire events there is a need to evaluate the residual strength of these members. However, the post-fire behaviour of cold-formed steel members has not been investigated in the past. This means conservative decisions are likely to be made in relation to fire exposed cold-formed steel buildings. Therefore an experimental study was undertaken to investigate the post-fire mechanical properties of cold-formed steels. Tensile coupons taken from cold-formed steel sheets of three different steel grades and thicknesses were exposed to different elevated temperatures up to 800 oC, and were then allowed to cool down to ambient temperature before they were tested to failure. Tensile coupon tests were conducted to obtain their post-fire stress-strain curves and associated mechanical properties (yield stress, Young’s modulus, ultimate strength and ductility). It was found that the post-fire mechanical properties of cold-formed steels are reduced below the original ambient temperature mechanical properties if they had been exposed to temperatures exceeding 300 oC. Hence a new set of equations is proposed to predict the post-fire mechanical properties of cold-formed steels. Such post-fire mechanical property assessments allow structural and fire engineers to make an accurate prediction of the safety of fire exposed cold-formed steel buildings. This paper presents the details of this experimental study and the results of post-fire mechanical properties of cold-formed steels. It also includes the results of a post-fire evaluation of cold-formed steel walls.

Cold & fire

"Cold & Fire", a song by the Australian band Dear Anonymous, was produced as part of the Indie 100 research intensive project within the Independent Music Project (IMP). The IMP is an ongoing, interdisciplinary research arm within QUT. The song's author is Julia Kourtidis.

Flexural–torsional buckling behaviour and design of cold-formed steel compression members at elevated temperatures

Current design rules for the member capacities of cold-formed steel columns are based on the same non-dimensional strength curve for both fixed and pinned-ended columns at ambient temperature. This research has investigated the accuracy of using current ambient temperature design rules in Australia/New Zealand (AS/NZS 4600), American (AISI S100) and European (Eurocode 3 Part 1.3) standards in determining the flexural–torsional buckling capacities of cold-formed steel columns at uniform elevated temperatures using appropriately reduced mechanical properties. It was found that these design rules accurately predicted the member capacities of pin ended lipped channel columns undergoing flexural torsional buckling at elevated temperatures. However, for fixed ended columns with warping fixity undergoing flexural–torsional buckling, the current design rules significantly underestimated the column capacities as they disregard the beneficial effect of warping fixity. This paper has therefore recommended the use of improved design rules developed for ambient temperature conditions to predict the axial compression capacities of fixed ended columns subject to flexural–torsional buckling at elevated temperatures within AS/NZS 4600 and AISI S100 design provisions. The accuracy of the proposed fire design rules was verified using finite element analysis and test results of cold-formed lipped channel columns at elevated temperatures except for low strength steel columns with intermediate slenderness whose behaviour was influenced by the increased nonlinearity in the stress–strain curves at elevated temperatures. Further research is required to include these effects within AS/NZS 4600 and AISI S100 design rules. However, Eurocode 3 Part 1.3 design rules can be used for this purpose by using suitable buckling curves as recommended in this paper.